2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

I wouldn't hold my breath over Republicans doing the right thing.  They have failed to do so at every opportunity since 2015 in regards to Trump.

I was thinking the same thing 72 hours ago...It all seems so clear to me now, though. Maybe it's all the acid I've been doing, quien sabe?

[WBT 20421]

Well it's not like they'd be doing it because it's right, they'd be doing it because trump has made himself so toxic he can no longer help them gain or hold onto power.  How they didn't see this day coming a long time ago is the question.

[henrygandorf 29175]

1 minute ago, WBT said:

Well it's not like they'd be doing it because it's right, they'd be doing it because trump has made himself so toxic he can no longer help them gain or hold onto power.  How they didn't see this day coming a long time ago is the question.

yeah, it's not like it would be some moral awakening.

also it's not happening.  if the gop leadership had a pair we'd have known it by now.

[henrygandorf 29175]

40 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

But, the scriptwriters this year are stone crazy so I suppose it's a viable option. 

 

[The Dog 43803]

Trump has given the far right everything they wanted. In fact, it's part of his problem. Although he has strong support amongst the most conservative voters, he has little or none outside of that. 

 

That said, this "defund the police" shit is playing into their hands. It needs to end yesterday before "defend the police" becomes a rallying cry.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

49 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

In fact I described something like what just happened on Monday. The Pentagon has pretty much declared Trump a domestic enemy of the Constitution and told him he's on his own. 

What happened?  What’d I miss?

[lemonlime 5503]

I was thinking the same thing 72 hours ago...It all seems so clear to me now, though. Maybe it's all the acid I've been doing, quien sabe?

I think it’s possible you’re right, although I wouldn’t put any money on it. Not because they have any morals or even a single vertebra among them. But because trump clearly has health/dementia issues. I don’t think he’s capable of campaigning. If they realize they can’t Weekend at Bernie’s him much longer, this could be an excuse to stop.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

30 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

What happened?  What’d I miss?

Both Mattis and top Pentagon brass told him to work his shit out without their help, pretty much. 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

10 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

 

I think it’s possible you’re right, although I wouldn’t put any money on it. Not because they have any morals or even a single vertebra among them. But because trump clearly has health/dementia issues. I don’t think he’s capable of campaigning. If they realize they can’t Weekend at Bernie’s him much longer, this could be an excuse to stop.

 

Yeah, it will be something like that. Maybe they will work out a deal with the Southern District of New York...He gets to go be a pundit (or maybe they force some kind of mega-nondisclosure deal on him) and the Machine grinds on in DC. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19151]

5 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

In the next two weeks, Fox News will start hammering on Trump. Mark it down. 

Sunday drankin’ is not conducive to starting off the week on a good foot,

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Sunday drankin’ is not conducive to starting off the week on a good foot,

No alcohol went into the making of those posts.

Rupe will switch horses. He only backs winners. He wrangle some concessions out of the Dems and Fox will start spouting the Unca Joe party line.

I lived in England when Murdoch kicked the Tories to the curb after Blair kissed enough ass. Next thing you Sky TV, the Sun and the Times started blasting John Major. 

[Bateshorn 9899]

9 hours ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Regarding point #3, I can't imagine why former GOP voters would return to Trump. He seems a little like the BSC ex-girlfriend that even you jaded fellows know better than to dial up and say, "hey baby." If they feel inclined to go in that direction, their feet were already turned that way anyway and this is rationalization. My neighbor has been somewhat honest about a growing realization that he is not good for our country and has decided she will vote in the other races and sit out the presidential vote so she doesn't feel conflicted about voting for Biden. As to whether she is being honest about not casting that vote, I cannot say. That part is her call alone.

This is my point with “defund the police”. It’s a right wing bogeyman.  If you are worried about it, then you probably get your news from the right....which means you probably aren’t all that Biden curious.

But I will concede the term is getting broader media coverage over the last 24 hours. 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

 

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

G. Elliott is not buying the newest national poll numbers though...

 

[Chad Fuck 17565]

G. Elliott is not buying the newest national poll numbers though...
 

This is where I am regarding polls. I’m cautiously optimistic, but I’m still helping the Mrs. with her voter registration drives and driving people to the polls. The game ain’t won until the clock ticks zero.

[gmr548 16511]

He's finished. We've already seen some of the rats jump ship (Murkowski, Collins). The Tom Cottons of the world  will posture to curry favor with their base, but there is literally no single politician on either side of the aisle ('cept maybe Matt Gaetz and Mike Pence) who doesn't want him gone.
Romney gives the GOP a real chance at winning. Trump does not. Now that the Pentagon has told him to get fucked, he knows he can't call shenanigans on the election results. If I were him I'd be calling in chits with the Saudis in hopes of getting a palace with a nice ocean view. Putin will double cross his ass too...
Y'all, I told y'all on the old site that there would be a military coup before this presidency was out. I said at the time that tanks would not be rolling down Pennsylvania Ave. In fact I described something like what just happened on Monday. The Pentagon has pretty much declared Trump a domestic enemy of the Constitution and told him he's on his own. 
 

Cool fanfic bro.

Also Romney does not give the GOP a chance at winning. Not a single trumper from the base would vote for him. They'd all be voting for Trump, who would be running as an independent. Romney would win UT, ID, and maybe MT. Mayyyybe even AZ. Beyond that, Biden lays waste to the map.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Trump's base is solid. So solid, that he could shoot every one of them in the foot on 5th Avenue and they'd still vote for him.

I'm holding off on hope. I figure the GOP leadership knows his base is solid and they're going to cheat their way for the rest. As Brisket would say, it's their brand. Why expect anything different?

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Cool fanfic bro.

Also Romney does not give the GOP a chance at winning. Not a single trumper from the base would vote for him. They'd all be voting for Trump, who would be running as an independent. Romney would win UT, ID, and maybe MT. Mayyyybe even AZ. Beyond that, Biden lays waste to the map.

And the establishment would be fine with that. 

I really think some of y'all are overestimating the numbers and depth of the Trump Cult. So long as some of these people can pull the lever for somebody they can say is anti-abortion, they will gladly do so. (How Trump became That Guy, I don't know, but it is what it is.) 

Anecdotally I am hearing that not a few cultists have finally seen the light. That Bible photo op did him no favors with a small but significant number of his base. He is gonna get destroyed, and I think the GOP Big Cigars think they might just be able to salvage the party with Romney. Or at least stop the bleeding.

(It's not fanfic; I don't want any of this to happen. It's a prophecy I am neutral on.)

[gmr548 16511]

And the establishment would be fine with that. 
I really think some of y'all are overestimating the numbers and depth of the Trump Cult. So long as some of these people can pull the lever for somebody they can say is anti-abortion, they will gladly do so. (How Trump became That Guy, I don't know, but it is what it is.) 
Anecdotally I am hearing that not a few cultists have finally seen the light. That Bible photo op did him no favors with a small but significant number of his base. He is gonna get destroyed, and I think the GOP Big Cigars think they might just be able to salvage the party with Romney. Or at least stop the bleeding.
(It's not fanfic; I don't want any of this to happen. It's a prophecy I am neutral on.)

They'd get massacred down ballot too. Trump still has approval well north of 80 percent among Republicans. His support, even at a time like this when it dips to its nadir, is high 30s. That's your true believers. A non trivial amount of them would forego voting for GOP senate candidates because angry Trump told them to on Twitter. And they'll hold that grudge at least until he dies.

The plan you describe hands entrenched control of the federal government to Democrats for at least the next four years. The GOP got to this point because it is a minority party that would do anything for power. That isn't about to change. They are who we thought they were.

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

This is my point with “defund the police”. It’s a right wing bogeyman.  If you are worried about it, then you probably get your news from the right....which means you probably aren’t all that Biden curious.

But I will concede the term is getting broader media coverage over the last 24 hours. 

Abolish ICE was supposed to backfire too. It will be fine, Biden isn’t running on a “defund the police” platform and can endorse real systematic change without that crap

[Biff Tannen 45494]

I refuse to believe anyone is still an undecided voter.  If you are still undecided, you are incapable of interpreting the world around you.  Even if you don't pay any attention, you can't get away from this.  I still think it's going to be closer than a lot of recent polls suggest.  There are plenty of people who won't admit to voting for him.  

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

8 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

And the establishment would be fine with that. 

I really think some of y'all are overestimating the numbers and depth of the Trump Cult. So long as some of these people can pull the lever for somebody they can say is anti-abortion, they will gladly do so. (How Trump became That Guy, I don't know, but it is what it is.) 

Anecdotally I am hearing that not a few cultists have finally seen the light. That Bible photo op did him no favors with a small but significant number of his base. He is gonna get destroyed, and I think the GOP Big Cigars think they might just be able to salvage the party with Romney. Or at least stop the bleeding.

(It's not fanfic; I don't want any of this to happen. It's a prophecy I am neutral on.)

It’s too late for any other R to be on the ballot. There’s the whole primary process 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

@MaybeACoordinator

So, by June 21ish you're saying Fox will turn on Trump? I haz skepticism about this. They're going to try and push the other (pyromaniac dark-skinned thugs will over run your town) narratives as long as they can and considering that there are multiple Boogaloo based demonstrations scheduled for Independence Day, I don't see Fox changing until at least then. Convention is scheduled for August, so if that was going to be the RNC m.o. it's not like Fox couldn't still pivot. Hell, they do it by the day with some frequency and no shame.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
addition

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s too late for any other R to be on the ballot. There’s the whole primary process 

It won't be via normal means. Trump will be offered immunity in SDNY if he declares that his work is done here and retires. 

[Horn Dogg 3808]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I refuse to believe anyone is still an undecided voter.  If you are still undecided, you are incapable of interpreting the world around you.  Even if you don't pay any attention, you can't get away from this.  I still think it's going to be closer than a lot of recent polls suggest.  There are plenty of people who won't admit to voting for him.  

I think you are right.  Never underestimate a hateful voter who thinks he’s a high roller and that’s worried his 401K balance might drop by $25,000 if we put a Democrat in charge.

[The Dog 43803]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

G. Elliott is not buying the newest national poll numbers though...

 

Not to interrupt the pity party but all he's saying is it's too early to see any effect from the protests one way or another.

[Voldemort86 2259]

16 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

And the establishment would be fine with that. 

I really think some of y'all are overestimating the numbers and depth of the Trump Cult. So long as some of these people can pull the lever for somebody they can say is anti-abortion, they will gladly do so. (How Trump became That Guy, I don't know, but it is what it is.) 

Anecdotally I am hearing that not a few cultists have finally seen the light. That Bible photo op did him no favors with a small but significant number of his base. He is gonna get destroyed, and I think the GOP Big Cigars think they might just be able to salvage the party with Romney. Or at least stop the bleeding.

(It's not fanfic; I don't want any of this to happen. It's a prophecy I am neutral on.)

It’s too late to change. This notion that they’re going to change things up a few months out is crazy talk.

trump recently had a meeting with the senate lately. They came away with the realization that their fortunes are pretty much tied together and they’re going to be on the same page. The senate even agreed to pick up several of trumps crazy ass conspiracy theories like Obamagate.

they can’t abandon trump because it will split the party in half. Half of the GOP voter base is brainwashed for trump in the same way hitler brainwashed Germany. These people make excuses for trump when he fucks up all the time, they defend his golfing sessions, they say that a “4D” chess move is coming when he hasn’t responded to his latest crisis on time, they get enraged when trump responds to said crisis and everyone still hates him while visibly giving him no credit for you know........ doing his job?  The grocery sacker at wal mart never gets any high fives. I guess trump’s brainwashed base easily forgets that.

[Jack Straw 2953]

41 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

 the GOP leadership knows his base is solid and they're going to cheat their way for the rest. 

this is where I'm at.  i would love to join in on all the optimism, but all the evidence steers me away from doing that.  I have zero faith that Republicans will allow there to be an open and legitimate election process.  i would feel that same way even if Biden were polling at +24.

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

16 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Not to interrupt the pity party but all he's saying is it's too early to see any effect from the protests one way or another.

What "pity party"? 

And that's not what he's saying at all. 

 

[tantric superman 4667]

3 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

this is where I'm at.  i would love to join in on all the optimism, but all the evidence steers me away from doing that.  I have zero faith that Republicans will allow there to be an open and legitimate election process.  i would feel that same way even if Biden were polling at +24.

Yeah.  Dems feeling a bit overconfident now, is my feeling....

[Snake Diggity 4614]

3 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Yeah.  Dems feeling a bit overconfident now, is my feeling....

Yep.  The last 3 months have helped Biden for sure, but which states have swung in that time?  Michigan, maybe?  Going into Feb there were 6 swing states that will determine the outcome of the election and that is still the case.  Covid and the protests may have solidified some of the light blue states (CO, NV, NM, VA), and it probably improved the outlook in PA and MI.  But FL still looks light pink, meaning WI, NC, and AZ will decide the election, and I’m not sure much has changed in those 3 states over the last 90 days.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

Yep.  The last 3 months have helped Biden for sure, but which states have swung in that time?  Michigan, maybe?  Going into Feb there were 6 swing states that will determine the outcome of the election and that is still the case.  Covid and the protests may have solidified some of the light blue states (CO, NV, NM, VA), and it probably improved the outlook in PA and MI.  But FL still looks light pink, meaning WI, NC, and AZ will decide the election, and I’m not sure much has changed in those 3 states over the last 90 days.

AZ is not a swing state anymore.  It is blue.  

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

Arizona has turned blue in real time. 

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

There's this misconception that the polls failed us in 2016, and it's just not true. Heading into election day, Hillary had a 3 point lead according to RCP averages. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points.  Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

I vividly remember her campaign losing momentum and screwing things up heading into November. 40,000 votes in 3 swing states flipped the election. 

Enough people bought into the "What do you have to lose?" rhetoric from Trump to win him the electoral college. He won't get those voters this time around. In fact, I think the "silent" voter that got Trump a victory in 2016 will flip this year, and we'll end up with a lot of "silent" voters that abandon him at the polls in November. I bet there are plenty of Republicans that end up voting either Biden or 3rd party (or leave it blank) at the top of the ticket and then vote straight R on the down ballots. 

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[Pancho 44475]

I don't get the sense Dems are overconfident because they know Trump and Republicans will use every trick they can to win and that includes using Russia.  This is why I don't get how some people on this site keep saying "it's over for trump and he knows it."  No, it's not over for him because he knows he can cheat.

I don't think Dems will be confident until November 4th and they see 270+ on the side of Biden. 

[Biff Tannen 45494]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I don't think Dems will be confident until November 4th and they see 270+ on the side of Biden. 

Even then we'll have to go through the weeks or months long gauntlet of the Rs crying "RIGGED ELECTION!11!" and take it all the way to the Supreme Court.  I won't be confident until he is dragged from the oval office or has his Warden Norton moment.

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I don't get the sense Dems are overconfident because they know Trump and Republicans will use every trick they can to win and that includes using Russia.  This is why I don't get how some people on this site keep saying "it's over for trump and he knows it."  No, it's not over for him because he knows he can cheat.

I don't think Dems will be confident until November 4th and they see 270+ on the side of Biden. 

- Trump is screwed

- Trump and the GOP will try to cheat

- Biden and all Dems should ignore the good polling and continue to work hard for every vote and increase turnout

- It's not only important to win the election, it's important to win by the largest margin possible

 

All of these can be true. 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Even then we'll have to go through the weeks or months long gauntlet of the Rs crying "RIGGED ELECTION!11!" and take it all the way to the Supreme Court.  I won't be confident until he is dragged from the oval office or has his Warden Norton moment.

That's why the goal should be for Biden to win by 10+ points. Trump can cry "rigged election!" all he wants but no one will buy it if he's blown out. 

 

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

If Trump tries to delegitimize the electoral process openly the military really will put the squeeze on him. That is fucking with the Constitution on a fundamental level. They have fired a shot across his bow already.

[Bullneck 18987]

13 hours ago, tantric superman said:

One of the things that has shocked me about Trump is the complete absence of the emergence of any small stories of any humanity or grace.  Not an appropriate comparison, but five years ago when Hannity hate was pretty universal, you'd hear stories that he was a really great boss and there were stories of his generosity.    Have I just missed any such stories about Trump?  The help to the caddy with the sick child?  Being nice to a puppy.  Any kind of gesture of kindness?

I might be blocking it, but I just can't think of anything.  Is there even a Rosebud?

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

I would love to see some polling on the '16 non-voter and what their intentions are this go around. 

57% of 18-30 yr olds did NOT vote in 2016. Dems usually win 60% of that age group.

I've noticed a lot of the protest energy being centered around voting.

I know in my circle, friends who don't usually vote are foaming at the mouth to get rid of Trump in Nov. 

[Pancho 44475]

 

8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

- Trump is screwed

- Trump and the GOP will try to cheat

- Biden and all Dems should ignore the good polling and continue to work hard for every vote and increase turnout

- It's not only important to win the election, it's important to win by the largest margin possible

 

All of these can be true. 

 

Yes. 

[Snake Diggity 4614]

26 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

AZ is not a swing state anymore.  It is blue.  

 

25 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Arizona has turned blue in real time. 

Based on what?

[gmr548 16511]

Based on what?

Biden and Mark Kelly both lead there, pretty consistently. Especially Kelly. You were right that not much has changed there - they were winning three months ago and they're winning now.

I agree calling it a blue state is premature but it's not really a tossup right now. More of a slight democratic lean at the presidential level. That senate race is pretty much over at this point though.

[The Dog 43803]

50 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What "pity party"? 

And that's not what he's saying at all. 

 

I read the rest of the twitter thread. That's the context the way I read it - too early for Biden to show any "bump" from the protests. 

and the "pity party" is referring to those who are having a hard time accepting what should be good news for them.

Edited June 8, 2020 by The Dog

[GopherRock 1765]

3 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

 

Based on what?

The best Senate candidate to be recruited into the chamber in a long time vs. a very unpopular incumbent who lost in 2018 and only became the incumbent when she was appointed into McCain's seat after his death. Trump is being dragged down by this. 

Also, unlike in 2016, there is no lack of enthusiasm on the left. See the special election in Wisconsin on April 7. There seemed to be a strong undercurrent of "I'll crawl through glass to vote".

[Hank Kingsley 20695]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I read the rest of the twitter thread. That's the context the way I read it.

 

Morris is insinuating the CNN poll with Biden + 14 is an outlier and not weighted properly. He’s been steady in believing Joe is up 7-8 points right now.

 

[The Dog 43803]

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Morris is insinuating the CNN poll with Biden + 14 is an outlier and not weighted properly. He’s been steady in believing Joe is up 7-8 points right now.

 

Right that's what I was trying to say. He still says Biden is up pretty big.

Edited June 8, 2020 by The Dog

[gmr548 16511]

Morris is insinuating the CNN poll with Biden + 14 is an outlier and not weighted properly. He’s been steady in believing Joe is up 7-8 points right now.
 

I don't think anyone really believes Biden is up 14. That'd be unprecedented in contemporary American politics. North of 5 or so indicates some breathing room, though, and it's getting to the point where anything below that is unusual. Of course there's the caveat that things can change.

[tantric superman 4667]

26 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

57% of 18-30 yr olds did NOT vote in 2016.

If I neglected to say it earlier: 

The choices weren't a Swiss Picnic for us either, but thanks a whole lot, assholes.