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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

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Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49504

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Iran and Russia fucking with our election. I’m shocked. 

 

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Iran and Russia using voter information data

Got a kiddo watching frozen. Any chance you can give more details? Thisifht actually be more bad news for Trump if it’s Russia...

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Pancho

Pancho 46309

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Got a kiddo watching frozen. Any chance you can give more details? Thisifht actually be more bad news for Trump if it’s Russia...

/ Voter intimidation and suppression via email is what I gathered, but I only listened for a few minutes.  Sounds like it was in relation to the proud boys emails from Florida and maybe more.

 

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8314

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Got a kiddo watching frozen. Any chance you can give more details? Thisifht actually be more bad news for Trump if it’s Russia...

Ratcliffe is leading the update, so that tells you all you need to know.

But, the major detail is that the voter intimidation emails came from.....Iran.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/10/20/proud-boys-emails-florida/

Quote

U.S. government concludes Iran was behind threatening emails sent to Democrats

The deceptive campaign made use of an Internet domain associated with the far-right Proud Boys 

 
Oct. 21, 2020 at 6:25 p.m. CDT

The U.S. government has concluded that Iran is behind a series of threatening emails arriving this week in the inboxes of Democratic voters, according to two U.S. officials.

Department of Homeland Security officials told state and local election administrators on a call Wednesday that a foreign government was responsible for the online barrage, according to the U.S. officials and state and local authorities who participated in the call, who all spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. A DHS official also said authorities had detected holes in state and local election websites and instructed those participating to patch their online services.

The emails claimed to be from the Proud Boys, a far-right group supportive of President Trump, but appeared instead to be a deceptive campaign making use of a vulnerability in the organization’s online network.

First divulged on Tuesday by local law enforcement and elections officials in Florida and Alaska, the emails were soon turned over to federal authorities, according to U.S. officials.

The messages appeared to target Democrats using data from digital databases known as “voter files,” some of which are commercially available. They told recipients the Proud Boys were “in possession of all your information” and instructed voters to change their party registration and cast their ballots for Trump.

By suggesting the group had gained access to privileged data, and also possibly penetrated electronic systems to detect how people were voting, the emails seemed designed to create the appearance of an election breach, said cybersecurity researchers. Such a move may serve to undermine confidence in the integrity of the democratic process without posing a genuine risk to the election, these researchers said.

“You will vote for Trump on Election Day or we will come after you,” warned the emails, which by Tuesday night were said to have reached voters in as many as four states, three of them hotly contested swing states in the coming presidential election.

The domain enlisted for the misleading operation, officialproudboys.com, was recently dropped by a hosting company that uses Google Cloud services, according to Google Cloud spokesman Ted Ladd. Without a secure host, the domain stood vulnerable to exploitation, cybersecurity experts said. Voters using Comcast, Yahoo and Gmail accounts were affected.

In addition to reports from Florida and Alaska, a voter in Pennsylvania told The Washington Post she had received one such email, though she suspected it may have been linked to her previous registration in Alaska. The Pennsylvania attorney general’s office had not received reports about the messages, a spokesman, Mark Shade, said Wednesday.

Kristen Clarke, president and executive director of the national Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, said her organization had received at least one report that a similar email had reached a voter in Arizona. The Arizona secretary of state’s office was looking into the matter, said a spokeswoman, Sophia Solis.

Enrique Tarrio, the chairman of the Proud Boys and the Florida state director of Latinos for Trump, denied involvement, saying the group operates two sites, and was increasingly migrating away from the domain used in the email campaign.

“Two weeks ago, I believe, we had Google Cloud services drop us from their platform, so then we initiated a url transfer, which is still in process,” he said in an interview. “We kind of just never used it.”

The technical data embedded in the emails did not make immediately apparent who was behind the messages. But metadata gathered from dozens of the emails pointed to the use of servers in Saudi Arabia, Estonia, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates, according to numerous analysts.

“It’s clearly organized and very much planned,” said Rita Katz, executive director of SITE Intelligence Group.

Democrats in Alachua County, in north-central Florida, began receiving the messages on Tuesday morning, according to interviews with several recipients. So, too, did voters in Alaska, said Casey Steinau, chair of the Alaska Democratic Party. Her communications director, Jeanne Devon, said Tuesday night that the FBI “is now involved in the investigation.” A spokeswoman for the bureau’s Anchorage field office did not respond to a request for comment.

“This is absolutely something to be concerned about,” said John Scott-Railton, a senior researcher at the Citizen Lab at the University of Toronto’s Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy. “This is what election interference looks like.” He said he knew of a threatening email reaching a voter in Pennsylvania.

Scott-Railton also said one email he had viewed included a link to a video — earlier reported by Vice — showing Trump making disparaging comments about mail-in voting, followed by a logo with the name of the Proud Boys. It then documented what was made to appear as a hack of voting data in an effort to produce a fraudulent ballot. The video was also posted on a Twitter account that has since been suspended.

Even as the president sows doubt about mail balloting, federal law enforcement officials as well as election administrators have underscored the security of the process, which has been routine in some states for years. They also have warned about possible disinformation designed to create the appearance of fraud or to stoke fears of voter intimidation — which itself threatens to keep voters away from the polls.

The Justice Department issued a statement on Wednesday saying it was “aware of reports that threatening correspondence referencing the current election” have been sent to people in several states. It said it could neither confirm nor deny any investigation and said, “if appropriate, the department will prosecute any civil or criminal violation to the fullest extent of the law.”

Christopher C. Krebs, director of DHS’s Security’s Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, wrote in a tweet on Tuesday that his office was aware of the emails, noting, “Ballot secrecy is guaranteed by law in all states.”

“These emails are meant to intimidate and undermine American voters’ confidence in our elections,” he added.

Some cybersecurity experts said foreign involvement should be expected.

“We’re still reviewing it, but it wouldn’t be unheard of for a foreign actor to impersonate political figures or organizations,” said John Hultquist, senior director of analysis for Mandiant Threat Intelligence. “It could be a form of voter intimidation or it could be meant to inject discord into an already fragile process.”

Tarrio, determined to beat back the perception of involvement by the Proud Boys, said he had spoken to an FBI agent about the episode. Amanda Videll, a spokeswoman for the bureau in Jacksonville, Fla., declined to comment.

Bennett Ragan, campaign manager for a Democratic State House candidate in Gainesville, Fla., said he received two of the threatening messages on his Gmail account and knows of at least 10 other similar emails that had reached friends or associates. He said the home address cited in the emails he received could have come only from a Florida voters’ roll from 2018 because he has moved several times in recent years.

Ragan said he believed the purpose was to intimidate Democratic voters in a swing state with hotly contested races up and down the ballot on Nov. 3.

“When you have people who have a voter roll and then send off emails, they will make a big splash. They will scare people. That is without a doubt the intent,” he said.

The hosting service that previously carried the Proud Boys domain canceled the registration after Google Cloud notified the customer that a nonprofit group had raised concerns about the controversial organization, said Ladd, the Google Cloud spokesman.

Following the action from the hosting service, the domain appears to have been left unsecured, allowing anyone on the Internet to take control of it and use it to send out the menacing messages, said Trevor Davis, CEO of CounterAction, a Washington-based digital intelligence firm.

The lapse, which began on Oct. 8, “likely made them vulnerable to this kind of hijacking,” Davis said. “Bad actors are constantly scanning the Internet for opportunities. Given the public profile of the Proud Boys and the likelihood that whoever’s sending these emails has access to a voter file, this appears to be opportunism.”

An Internet Protocol (IP) address associated with metadata in at least one email had previously been reported, pointing to its likely use in scam or phishing operations, said Cindy Otis, a former CIA analyst and vice president of analysis for Alethea Group, an organization combating online threats and misinformation.

The Proud Boys rose to national prominence last month during the first presidential debate between Trump and his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, when the president passed up an invitation by moderator Chris Wallace, of Fox News, to denounce White supremacists. When Biden suggested that Trump denounce the Proud Boys, he said they should “stand back and stand by” — a comment that was widely celebrated on social media by the group as a call to action.

Memes circulated online with the words integrated into the Proud Boys logo. One doctored image showed Trump wearing one of the Proud Boys’ signature polo shirts. Another online poster used the moment to advertise T-shirts and hoodies bearing the group’s logo and the words “PROUD BOYS STANDING BY.”

The group’s leaders say they do not support White supremacy, but they had a contingent at 2017’s notorious Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville. The Proud Boys also have been frequent participants in the protests demonstrating against coronavirus shutdowns and, more recently, theprotests in Portland, Ore. Facebook has banned the group as a hate group, and the Southern Poverty Law Center classifies it as a hate group and says its leaders “regularly spout white nationalist memes and maintain affiliations with known extremists.”

 

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47201

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 Not sure how this can definitely be damaging to Trump. I mean, he already showed support for the proud boys. Meanwhile the actual people being intimidated were democratic voters...

 

It's not damaging to Trump.  It's a whitewash.  It's not damaging to Biden, per se, but it was clearly intended to take heat off of Trump, and put the focus on Iran over Russia.

The intelligence community is wholly bought in at this point.  Fuck 'em all.

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8314

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Posted
8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's not damaging to Trump.  It's a whitewash.  It's not damaging to Biden, per se, but it was clearly intended to take heat off of Trump, and put the focus on Iran over Russia.

The intelligence community is wholly bought in at this point.  Fuck 'em all.

And Chris Wray does not appear to GAF.

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Underdog

Underdog 29189

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Posted
3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't know where this goes, so I'm posting it here.

AOC and Ilhan Omar did a twitch stream of Among Us, and used it to get people to vote. AOC's stream got 435,000 viewers, which is bananas. More importantly, Omar posted the specs for her gaming rig... it is quite nice (although her GPU lags a bit behind the rest of the build). 

 

A few of the comments deserve some props:

 

 

Gotta love this cutie owning the stupid shit like "send her back" and turning it into a campaign slogan back in their stupid fucking faces with "send her back...  to Congress".  The Squad gives Zero fucks about what old guard Repubs think about them. 

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Continental Op

Continental Op 3934

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Posted
3 hours ago, The Dog said:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

538's election forecast - I'd recommend looking at the days until the election rather than the actual date since election day was November 8th that year. 

So this time 4 years ago it was 85-15 Hillary. The Comey letter hit 2 days later.

Tons of people were looking for a reason not to vote for Clinton and Comey served it up. 

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Bookman

Bookman 4764

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Posted
2 hours ago, RayDog said:

I don't understand Nate's "polling." Per election project:

Florida has 46.5% Democratic and 33.2% Republican returned ballots.

Iowa is 52.6% Democratic and 30.3% Republican.

Nevada is 46.7% Democratic to 32.4% Republican

There is other less obvious data showing the other tossup state's early voting also leads Democratic by similar margins including Texas.

I think he's going by polling, not returned ballots.

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8468

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't know where this goes, so I'm posting it here.

AOC and Ilhan Omar did a twitch stream of Among Us, and used it to get people to vote. AOC's stream got 435,000 viewers, which is bananas. More importantly, Omar posted the specs for her gaming rig... it is quite nice (although her GPU lags a bit behind the rest of the build). 

 

A few of the comments deserve some props:

 

 

Not bad. Guessing she plays more intense stuff than among us. 2060 super though? I just picked up a 3080.

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8468

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:
9 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:
Not bad. Guessing she plays more intense stuff than among us. 2060 super though? I just picked up a 3080.

Where did you get a 3080 from? I've been trying like hell and haven't been successful so far.

Caved in and paid some scalper dickmunch on ebay. I was a moron and bought the rest of my parts right before launch day and didn't want to leave them lying around much longer. But hey, at least I freed up a backorder at B&H and my spots for the FTW3 cards at the EVGA shop for other people.

Edited by Bevo14
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18324

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

Not bad. Guessing she plays more intense stuff than among us. 2060 super though? I just picked up a 3080.

I honestly don't understand that system with a 2060 super. Also, 6 tb of ssd storage is pretty insane. She must do something besides gaming on it. Or maybe she likes running multiple instances of dwarf fortress alongside some DOTA.  

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8468

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I honestly don't understand that system with a 2060 super. Also, 6 tb of ssd storage is pretty insane. She must do something besides gaming on it. Or maybe she likes running multiple instances of dwarf fortress alongside some DOTA.  

Maybe she got fucked over like everybody else waiting for Ampere and got it as a placeholder.

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elfenix

elfenix 34750

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Posted
54 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

Not bad. Guessing she plays more intense stuff than among us. 2060 super though? I just picked up a 3080.

it's not her computer, it's one she borrowed from a staffer who normally edits video.  which explains why it's CPU heavy and has 6TB of ssd. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19455

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, ndawg said:

I found it surprising, too, but I think the explanation is that all the stereotypes we have for millenials are of the urban variety. Rural millenials may not have anything in common with them, in the same way that non-white boomer aged Americans aren't really similar to white baby boomers by and large.

If you’re a millennial  today and haven’t found a way to get out of Iowa yet, you’re probably not that smart. Guess who dumb people are voting for?

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/floridas-latino-voters-being-bombarded-090653143.html

im sure we’ve discussed this before, but I don’t know how bad it is down there. It makes me sick that trump, the Russians, and GOP are flooding them with lies in order to steal their votes. 
 

im not worried about Hispanics in other states too much, but the ones in south Florida seem like they are susceptible to Trumps lies and tricks. Pretty sad.

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SizzleChest

SizzleChest 8314

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12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/floridas-latino-voters-being-bombarded-090653143.html

im sure we’ve discussed this before, but I don’t know how bad it is down there. It makes me sick that trump, the Russians, and GOP are flooding them with lies in order to steal their votes. 
 

im not worried about Hispanics in other states too much, but the ones in south Florida seem like they are susceptible to Trumps lies and tricks. Pretty sad.

You should watch the HBO doc 537 Votes.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21785

Posted
Posted
Just now, texastough said:

Are all these polls showing dead heats or slight Biden leads in red/purple states a coordinated GOTV effort for the gop?

I've seen this thought process before, but I don't really get it. 

You can easily argue that this would energize people that don't usually vote (because Texas is a "red state") to help get Biden past the finish line. 

 

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Now I’m really questioning the accuracy of morning consult. 

 

They're running a couple of points more blue than most polls, but the key is momentum. Biden has picked up a couple of points in every state except for Arizona since their September 9 poll. I'm less worried about their raw numbers but instead liking the upward trend, which we're seeing almost everywhere.

 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4714

Posted
Posted (edited)

I would think polls showing a Texas as a toss up would energize potential Biden voters more than Trump voters.  All the Trump voters in Texas were already coming out.  Anecdotally, I know a lot more Texan “independents” or “non-voters” who would’ve voted blue in past elections if they thought it would make a difference.

 

Looking more likely it’ll be one of the better of these potential outcomes:

Biden 400+ EV: total rebuke of Trumpism, possible American Renaissance 

Biden 330-400 EV: enough to make a statement and avoid dispute

Biden 300-330 EV: Biden wins but Trump disputes; unnecessary suffering ensues

Biden 270-300 EV: heavily disputed results, possible civil war

Biden <270 EV: civil war

Edited by Snake Diggity
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TeeDubya

TeeDubya 3362

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/floridas-latino-voters-being-bombarded-090653143.html


 

im not worried about Hispanics in other states too much, but the ones in south Florida seem like they are susceptible to Trumps lies and tricks. Pretty sad.

Cuban hispanic vs non-cuban latin american hispanic.  That weird dance with the Castro factor affects everything.  The over-arching blend of family still in Cuba, Communist regime, economic embargo, bad Cuban policy hits home with them.

Edited by TeeDubya
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 49504

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5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I would think polls showing a Texas as a toss up would energize potential Biden voters more than Trump voters.  All the Trump voters in Texas were already coming out.  Anecdotally, I know a lot more Texan “independents” or “non-voters” who would’ve voted blue in past elections if they thought it would make a difference.

 

Looking more likely it’ll be one of the better of these potential outcomes:

Biden 400+ EV: total rebuke of Trumpism

Biden 350-400 EV: enough to make a statement and avoid dispute

Biden 300-350 EV: Biden wins but Trump disputes; unnecessary suffering ensues

Biden 270-300 EV: heavily disputed results, possible civil war

Biden <270 EV: civil war

Outside of some of the absurdity in your categories here, I'd argue that 300-350 probably falls in the "enough to make a statement and avoid dispute" category, and  350-400 probably needs to be a new category or might even qualify as "Total Rebuke of Trumpism."

If these polls are true and it's a tossup in all these red states, even if Trump wins them all, you're talking about a popular vote drubbing for what..6-8 million votes? He'd be picking up close to a million votes in Texas, half a million in each of the blue wall states from last election, half a million or so in Georiga, and on an on. 

Which brings me to my point. If all these states are pretty split, what do folks think the popular vote total could be? I've asked and discussed this before, but hillary was just shy of 3. I feel like Biden could easily win by 6-8 million. Regardless of the electoral college, that's a legit talking point when it comes time to Trump challenging things in various states, as well as in the supreme court if it came to that.

What do folks think the new ceiling is on his popular vote total?

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