2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Chuckie Finster 22,702]

If you step back and consider that “I am the least racist person in the room” wasn’t a disaster for Trump, but “shut down oil production” was seen as a blunder for Biden, it’s really amazing how far apart the two standards we’ve set for these candidates really are.

Yeah, the fact that the oil comment is drawing more attention than “we treat the kids real nice after we rip them from their parents” is depressing as hell.

[Red Five 40,868]

It's the coyotes.

The virus is going away. We have a cure and a vaccine is ready.

I haven't taken any Russian money. 

Biden's family vacuuming up money.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Yeah, the fact that the oil comment is drawing more attention than “we treat the kids real nice after we rip them from their parents” is depressing as hell.

And WE LOST TRACK OF THEIR PARENTS is on top of that. Those of us who are parents and who have lost track of a child, even for a moment: in a park, a playground, wherever feel that sharp stab of fear. Or when the child thinks WE ,the parent are gone.

[Bateshorn 9,928]

18 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Y'all need to chill.

To build on this even more:  It's not just "eh, they both suck" third party voters.  It's also the missing "eh, they both suck, media says Hilary has this, YOLO, Trump" is also a problem for the GOP.

[ndawg 1,242]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Yeah, the fact that the oil comment is drawing more attention than “we treat the kids real nice after we rip them from their parents” is depressing as hell.

This is the intended effect of all the “both sides” nonsense. No matter how many arguments Trumpkins lose on here, they still in fact win the moment we accidentally agree to a double standard. Which is really hard to avoid doing, because even relatively logical humans are impressionable.

[gmr548 16,580]

PredictIt bettors are idiots, full stop. Markets will often shift 3-4 points based on a tweet from something like "Red Eagle Pollster Bot" saying that sources tell them early voting trends in rural Possum Taint county are 10% better than expected for Trump, but then not move based on a Biden +10 poll from a legit pollster.

Pos rep for Possum Taint County.

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

26 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Hey Orange Abe,

 

I like Pete a whole lot more these days 

[Pancho 44,860]

 

[Guest Lobo]

I really am starting to think 3rd party/other turnout in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going to make a difference on way or the other.  

I don't have my mind around the maths yet and I do not hear any single credible news source discussing their numbers.

Laugh at them all you want, but people not named Clinton nor Trump accounted for well over 7.6mm votes in 2016.  That's a lot.  

I only know Jo Jorgensen because she's atop my old party's ticket.  I literally have no idea who is running on the Green Party, Constitution Party, nor Reform Party.  And I always know the names of those tickets.  Plus there is no true independent with name recognition this time around like Evan McMullin.  And the consensus on what states Kanye West is listed on the ballot of, remains a total fucking mystery.  Ballotpedia (which can be manipulated on a daily basis) says he's on 12 state ballots.  The battleground states being:  Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado.  the rest of his states are comfortably hard red or named Vermont.  

I am honestly projecting (and this isn't with much research) that candidates not named Biden or Trump in 2020, will account for no more than 3 million votes.  Far less than half of what they did as an aggregate in 2016.  

[Horn Dog 9,875]

9 hours ago, Thatguy said:

found it.....

 

 

As a conservative, I really feel for Billy cause he is most certainly a "human life" when he was conceived and developing that pre-existing condition in the womb.  The problem is that once he was born that "human life" thing becomes ambiguous so it's kinda hard to give a shit about what happens after that. 

[Brisketexan 105,160]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I really am starting to think 3rd party/other turnout in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going to make a difference on way or the other.  

I don't have my mind around the maths yet and I do not hear any single credible news source discussing their numbers.

Laugh at them all you want, but people not named Clinton nor Trump accounted for well over 7.6mm votes in 2016.  That's a lot.  

I only know Jo Jorgensen because she's atop my old party's ticket.  I literally have no idea who is running on the Green Party, Constitution Party, nor Reform Party.  And I always know the names of those tickets.  Plus there is no true independent with name recognition this time around like Evan McMullin.  And the consensus on what states Kanye West is listed on the ballot of, remains a total fucking mystery (which can be manipulated on a daily basis) says he's on 12 state ballots.  The battleground states being:  Iowa, Louisiana, and Colorado.  the rest of his states are comfortably hard red or named Vermont.  

I am honestly projecting (and this isn't with much research) that candidates not named Biden or Trump in 2020, will account for no more than 3 million votes.  Far less than half of what they did as an aggregate in 2016.  

3rd party turnout matters in several ways.

1 - it looks to be significantly smaller.

2 -- last time, it poached a good number of voters who would otherwise be Dem voters

3 -- this time, I think it's more likely to poach people who voted Trump in 2016 than it is to poach likely Dem voters

In short, the 3rd party vote helped Trump in 2016 because it was big enough to make a difference, and it mostly drew from people who would be more likely to vote Dem than GOP.  That isn't the case in 2020 (at least not to that degree).

We hope.....lotta hopin' round here.....

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I am honestly projecting (and this isn't with much research) that candidates not named Biden or Trump in 2020, will account for no more than 3 million votes.  Far less than half of what they did as an aggregate in 2016.  

A little related (and apologies if already discussed as I haven't caught up from this week yet), we watched 537 votes on HBO the other evening. That was really good and a little infuriating to watch. If you haven't heard about it, it is a documentary about Florida in the Bush v Gore election. Elian Gonzales, the votes, the recount. Roger Stone makes an appearance and it was weird to see the riots in Miami. I had completely forgotten about those. I think it's going to be shown again, if anyone wants to catch it.

[Horn Dog 9,875]

55 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Sleepy Joe is going to take away your beautiful Oil Industry!

Sleepy Joe is gonna take away our beautiful SOCIALIST subsides for the oil industry!..... Wait.  

[Guest Lobo]

There were 250,000+ votes in Michigan for people not named Clinton or Trump in 2016.  ~5.25%  

I don't think most of those would have gone for a Democrat.  I think most of those would have for a Republican not named Trump.  

Same in Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.  If turnout remains same, or higher.....I think a lot those 250k votes break for Biden this time around...away from Trump.  

[Huckleberry 33,016]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I don't think most of those would have gone for a Democrat.  I think most of those would have for a Republican not named Trump.  

I think this is accurate. Take McMullin for example, he basically ran because of Mormons who voted for Romney but refused to vote for Trump. 

[G650 14,263]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I think this is accurate. Take McMullin for example, he basically ran because of Mormons who voted for Romney but refused to vote for Trump. 

Precisely. I was one of those people

[Bateshorn 9,928]

The 3rd party vote absolutely played a role. 

A much bigger factor were the undecided "I hate both" voters who voted Trump on election day.  There's not a huge well of voters out there at this point to swing the election one way or another.  Trump really is putting it all on a huge pile of shy Trump voters who are actively lying to pollsters.   Because early voting party registration shows Democrats are not going to stay home this year, they are motivated.  The national polls in 2016 were pretty accurate, and the upper midwest polling suffered from a dearth of quality polling down the stretch, which is why everyone was caught off guard when undecides broke strongly to Trump (which they problem shouldn't have been, given that Hilary was the de facto incumbent).

It explains why Trump is not running on his record but trying again to run as the outsider: they are trying to get the band back together.  The problem is, the electorate doesn't resemble the 2016 electorate. 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Bateshorn

[TexEx15 17,544]

So at this point what are folks feeling as it relates to this being settled on election night? Yea or nay?

[totallynotabuttpirate 5,400]

1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

So at this point what are folks feeling as it relates to this being settled on election night? Yea or nay?

[Brisketexan 105,160]

1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

So at this point what are folks feeling as it relates to this being settled on election night? Yea or nay?

[Bateshorn 9,928]

12 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

So at this point what are folks feeling as it relates to this being settled on election night? Yea or nay?

Only if Florida votes for Biden.  Florida starts counting before election night, so it posts results really quickly.  If it goes blue, Trump's path to victory becomes virtually untenable. Fuck around on 270towin.  If you give Biden FL, and the known blue states, Trump can't lose any other major states from 2016 to get Trump to 270. Which let's be honest: if Trump is losing florida, he's going to lose one of the upper midwest (mostly likely Michigan) or Arizona.

Which is the other point: Arizona has done a bunch of work to speed up their vote counting and elections since 2018.  We will know the outcome of AZ before sunrise.

But trust Florida man at your own peril.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Bateshorn

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

10 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

So at this point what are folks feeling as it relates to this being settled on election night? Yea or nay?

[Woland 733]

1 hour ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

So is far southern Collin Co., also with a diverse ethnic makeup.

White flight is now out to Fannin County. True story...one acquaintance lives in Fannin County with her elderly mother. Her mother received three ballots in the mail and the acquaintance posted her disgust on Facebook. Many jumped in with the liberal plot to commit election fraud. It was fun pointing out that the entire county government in Fannin County is Republican. 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Woland
Addition

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

9 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

So at this point what are folks feeling as it relates to this being settled on election night? Yea or nay?

This man:

These folks:

with the addition of this woman:

Indicates that the GOP plays to win and that is what they are going to attempt. Don't know if it will work, but I believe that is what they are keeping in their pocket, unless the electoral is so overwhelmingly Biden that it would overplay their hand and become obvious. Then they just lob cheap shots for four years and try again.

[Bateshorn 9,928]

Just now, Mrs Whiggins said:

This man:

These folks:

with the addition of this woman:

Indicates that the GOP plays to win and that is what they are going to attempt. Don't know if it will work, but I believe that is what they are keeping in their pocket, unless the electoral is so overwhelmingly Biden that it would overplay their hand and become obvious. Then they just lob cheap shots for four years and try again.

Unfortunately for the GOP: This Woman

 

And the 12th Amendment complicate that math.

[TexEx15 17,544]

3 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

This man:

These folks:

with the addition of this woman:

Indicates that the GOP plays to win and that is what they are going to attempt. Don't know if it will work, but I believe that is what they are keeping in their pocket, unless the electoral is so overwhelmingly Biden that it would overplay their hand and become obvious. Then they just lob cheap shots for four years and try again.

I’m hoping that the margin is so overwhelming that it becomes a moot point.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Only if Florida votes for Biden.  Florida starts counting before election night, so it posts results really quickly.  If it goes blue, Trump's path to victory becomes virtually untenable. Fuck around on 270towin.  If you give Biden FL, and the known blue states, Trump can't lose any other major states from 2016 to get Trump to 270. Which let's be honest: if Trump is losing florida, he's going to lose one of the upper midwest (mostly likely Michigan) or Arizona.

Which is the other point: Arizona has done a bunch of work to speed up their vote counting and elections since 2018.  We will know the outcome of AZ before sunrise.

But trust Florida man at your own peril.

This is probably correct, if loses Florida, or the cabal of battleground states he needs like NC/MI/WI, etc. He will still try to sue and cry, but it's going to be hard to argue what path he has. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,529]

1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

I’m hoping that the margin is so overwhelming that it becomes a moot point.

That’s where Texas would be helpful. He will win without Texas. Hopefully he’s in the 330 range without Texas. But would that be enough for the gop to admit defeat without involving the judiciary?

[gmr548 16,580]

So at this point what are folks feeling as it relates to this being settled on election night? Yea or nay?

If it is, it's for Biden. With the Midwest trio of WI, MI, PA not expected to be called due to not being allowed to process mail in ballots until E-day, the battleground states that will likely get calls are the sun belt states.

 

If Trump sweeps those he still has to get one of those three Midwestern states. On the flip side, Biden can get to 270 without any of those If he wins FL and one of AZ/NC. Honestly if Biden wins Florida, it's over. There's no world where he gets it but can't find the remaining 15 somewhere out of AZ, GA, ME-2, MI, NE-2, NV, NC, PA, WI, or TX.

 

 

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

I’m hoping that the margin is so overwhelming that it becomes a moot point.

Ditto. Florida Florida Florida was featured on that documentary I just watched and it was crazy that it came down to 537 votes and that the recount was suspended. That weighs on me that the GOP has upped their game since then.

[Bateshorn 9,928]

Let me amend my point:  It's not that florida get's called early in the evening (unless it's a blowout).  It's that the country registrars update quickly, so you get a pretty good idea where things are going early in the evening.  Same for Virginia.  If it's nip and tuck by 9 pm, we aren't going to know on election night.  If Trump way underperforms in Lake/Sumter, and is getting crushed in Orlando and doesn't see some sort of cuban/venezuelen bounce in south florida, we will see it happening in real time and the news will be picking up on it.

Same thing for the Charlotte burbs: NC polls close at 7:30.  By 9:30 we should have a pretty firm idea of whether the Charlotte suburbs are going to help the RDU area overwhelm the rest of the state or if it's going to be a nail biter.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Bateshorn

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20,876]

Seems like this is good news:

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Seems like this is good news:

 

Nice!  Beto effect, imo

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

20 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s where Texas would be helpful. He will win without Texas. Hopefully he’s in the 330 range without Texas. But would that be enough for the gop to admit defeat without involving the judiciary?

Biden isn't winning Texas, but if he manages to do it, it will be by a ridiculously close margin.  There is no way the GOP doesn't challenge the Texas results in that case.

Really, the GOP has probably already drafted their complaints in every potential swing state.  This is going to the courts even in a massive blowout.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

5 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Seems like this is good news:

 

Lotta yoots out there. 
 

 

 

[Pancho 44,860]

 

[Pancho 44,860]

21% of Black voters in Miami Dade have early voted per MSNBC

[TexasEd 8,067]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Yeah, the fact that the oil comment is drawing more attention than “we treat the kids real nice after we rip them from their parents” is depressing as hell.

This is what I heard

 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

And he's super trustworthy, so

[Snake Diggity 4,625]

There is no way that oil comment was a 8-10% swing comment in PA.  Stupid to even suggest it.  It may have been a 2% swing in Texas, which could be the difference in that state.  But very unlikely it affects the outcome in PA.

[Guest Lobo]

17 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Ah yes, the vaunted Minnesota oil industry.  I think we're all familiar with Big Golden Gopher Oil?  10,000 lakes and 10,000 barrels/year.  That's what Minnesota produces.  And that's in a good year.  Shit, put Minnesota and Ohio together like Stepien says, you're still sitting well below the production of fucking Kansas.  

Sadly though, it really did put out of reach the 10% chance Biden had of flipping Texas.  I guess the tradeoff was it picked up all those on-the-fence environmental progressives who were thinking of breaking for Trump in the last week of early voting?  (note sarcasm please).  Was a weird gambit.  I still think PA is fine for Biden.  Which means 2021 is fine for America.  But it's still 2020, so fuck me. 

[Ted Lange 16,110]

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20,876]

1 minute ago, Ted Lange said:

 

This is their response to Never-Trumpers I guess.  Have to pretend there is a whole group of liberals who are so anti-BLM that they're forced to vote Trump.  Those people were already voting Trump regardless of what Biden said about Antifa, BLM, or 'media bias'.

[StassneyHorn 6,617]

This election will be over before November 3rd comes. Early voting too massive.

This is my take, please respect my decision.☝️

[The Dog 44,066]

7 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

IMHO this would have been a thing had someone much more liberal than Biden won the nomination (Sanders or Warren). Biden has been doing a good distancing himself from most of the kooky shit that some on the far left have embraced.

['stache 21,823]

37 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Biden isn't winning Texas, but if he manages to do it, it will be by a ridiculously close margin.  There is no way the GOP doesn't challenge the Texas results in that case.

Really, the GOP has probably already drafted their complaints in every potential swing state.  This is going to the courts even in a massive blowout.

If Biden wins Texas it will just give them fodder to claim election fraud. It's been a red state so long they'll claim that Biden could only win the state by fraud. They'll cry from every rooftop in the country until January 20 when the military will kick that fat fuck out of the oval office if required.

[The Dog 44,066]

4 minutes ago, 'stache said:

If Biden wins Texas it will just give them fodder to claim election fraud.

Trump is going to claim fraud if he loses the election in any scenario and by any margin. He's going to rant on twitter like crazy (as he has been for four years) and will remind everyone why they voted his orange face out in the first place.

[Aqua Buddha 14,598]

45 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

I used to like Nate Silver but he never commits to anything.  Biden could be up 80-20 and he's like "Well, there is still a chance so we just don't know."