2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Biff Tannen 45494]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

11 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Morris is insinuating the CNN poll with Biden + 14 is an outlier and not weighted properly. He’s been steady in believing Joe is up 7-8 points right now.
 

I don't think anyone really believes Biden is up 14. That'd be unprecedented in contemporary American politics. North of 5 or so indicates some breathing room, though, and it's getting to the point where anything below that is unusual. Of course there's the caveat that things can change.

It's just important to realize that polls are a snapshot in time.  Right now there's a pandemic, riots, and the president just had maybe the darkest day of his tenure (Teargas/Bible-gate).  Things may be a lot calmer in November.

[Chuckie Finster 22600]

11 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Things may be a lot calmer in November.

[Hank Kingsley 20696]

15 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

It's just important to realize that polls are a snapshot in time.  

True, but this particular snapshot in time has lasted about 18 months. Biden has always been ahead vs. Trump in head to head polling. 
 

This is unusual data, but we live in unusual times. 

[yoladu 4067]

 

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

That's why the goal should be for Biden to win by 10+ points. Trump can cry "rigged election!" all he wants but no one will buy it if he's blown out. 

 

What is messed up is that Biden needs to win at 10% to thwart any calls for a "rigged election", but Trump won the presidency by the narrowest margins while losing the popular vote by 2.1 points and it's all peaches and cream. H. Clinton conceded on election night (maybe it was early the next day, i don't remember)..

You think Trump, on election night 2020,  would concede the election to Biden, where Trump lost the Electoral College,  but won the popular vote by 2 points, AND where he was up in the national polling at +4 on Election Day?!!

Never. N E V E R.

 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by yoladu

[Red Five 40661]

8 minutes ago, yoladu said:

H. Clinton conceded on election night (maybe it was early the next day, i don't remember)..

It was definitely on election night, because whatever anchor it was saying "This just in, Hillary Clinton has called Donald Trump to concede" is still fresh in my nightmares. That was my "oh fuck this is actually happening" moment and it was horrific.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

13 minutes ago, yoladu said:

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

What is messed up is that Biden needs to win at 10% to thwart any calls for a "rigged election"

I don't think this will matter either.  If it's a huge margin, it's just that the Dems cheated "BIGLY!!!!"  There is no scenario in which he will admit defeat.  1 point, 10 points, 40 points.  He will cry rigged election and refuse to concede and start "investigations".  Guaranteed.

[henrygandorf 29175]

i think this poll is especially interesting, and here's why:

for the past 12-18 months, the biden lead over trump has been one of the steadiest and most consistent in us presidential polling history.  this is known.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/10/politics/biden-polling/index.html

so why does a steady lead matter?  well, over enough time, the sample size gets so big, that a consistent lead means the moe shrinks, and eventually, there isn't one.  this also helps with all the people still chirping, "well the 2016 polls looked good too, how'd that work out for ya?" 

but as the race comes into focus, many times the numbers start to retreat to the middle, for a variety of reasons - they just tend to tighten.  it's expected.  and yes, it happened with hillary, even before comey.  in 2016, as many have mentioned, there was still an "unknown" quality with trump, and a "yes, we know exactly who she is" quality with hillary.  this was bad for her and good for him.  now, it's working the other way around.  

not only do people know enough (too much) about trump, but they feel like they know enough about biden too.  which is good, because it keeps the mythical "undecided" voter from falling for whatever nonsense trump/fox/oann is spewing at biden this week.  the pandemic, and now the protests, have engaged a huge chunk of the population who normally wouldn't care until the race was in the home stretch, if at all.  now, they're involved.

but back to the steady lead.  the only way to combat it is to slowly chip away at it.  the longer it stays steady, the steeper it is to overcome.  and the worst possible development right now for trump, is that the lead stops being steady, and starts trending more in biden's direction.  and it looks like that's what's happening.  he's stretching it out.  and that is impossible to overcome, even with all the cheating.  he's fucking cooked.

[gmr548 16511]

Things may be a lot calmer in November.

It's crazy that you just now woke up after going to sleep in December 2019. You should get that checked out.

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

i think this poll is especially interesting, and here's why:

for the past 12-18 months, the biden lead over trump has been one of the steadiest and most consistent in us presidential polling history.  this is known.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/10/politics/biden-polling/index.html

so why does a steady lead matter?  well, over enough time, the sample size gets so big, that a consistent lead means the moe shrinks, and eventually, there isn't one.  this also helps with all the people still chirping, "well the 2016 polls looked good too, how'd that work out for ya?" 

but as the race comes into focus, many times the numbers start to retreat to the middle, for a variety of reasons - they just tend to tighten.  it's expected.  and yes, it happened with hillary, even before comey.  in 2016, as many have mentioned, there was still an "unknown" quality with trump, and a "yes, we know exactly who she is" quality with hillary.  this was bad for her and good for him.  now, it's working the other way around.  

not only do people know enough (too much) about trump, but they feel like they know enough about biden too.  which is good, because it keeps the mythical "undecided" voter from falling for whatever nonsense trump/fox/oann is spewing at biden this week.  the pandemic, and now the protests, have engaged a huge chunk of the population who normally wouldn't care until the race was in the home stretch, if at all.  now, they're involved.

but back to the steady lead.  the only way to combat it is to slowly chip away at it.  the longer it stays steady, the steeper it is to overcome.  and the worst possible development right now for trump, is that the lead stops being steady, and starts trending more in biden's direction.  and it looks like that's what's happening.  he's stretching it out.  and that is impossible to overcome, even with all the cheating.  he's fucking cooked.

It’s been stated before, but Hilary really was a perfect storm of horse manure.

- the GOP knew she was next. They knew she would run in 2016 after Obama was term limited. They had 15 years to gather opposition research to use against her

- Hilary screwed up with the whole email server thing

- the Russians dropped a nasty wiki leak on Hilary every week during the election cycle

- Hilary didn’t campaign in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and michigan

-Comey’s dumbass really did hurt her a lot. The timing of his announcement was just a huge let down.

- Bernie won conservative states in 2016 against Hilary and in those same states in 2020, Biden crushed him.

 

as long as Biden doesn’t look like a retard at the debates and the dems put in a good effort like they did in 2018, it should be a win.

Biden is winning voters who hate both candidates.  Trump dominated this group in 2016.

Biden is doing much better with older white folks than Hilary ever did.

Biden is doing better with African Americans.

theres a lot to like for the Democrats right now. Just don’t blow it by talking about defunding the police or other crazy stuff.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

It's crazy that you just now woke up after going to sleep in December 2019. You should get that checked out.

 

I'm just saying, I have no trust in our goldfish memories.  People aren't going to keep these protests up for another 5 months straight.  Now, this is all assuming nothing on this current level happens between now and November, which is admittedly, also unlikely, given our dipshit in chief.

[ryskey 447]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

 

theres a lot to like for the Democrats right now. Just don’t blow it by talking about defunding the police or other crazy stuff.

Dems: "Hold my beer"

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Republicans can spew batshit crazy 24/7 without consequences but the Dems call for something as nominal as “defund the police” and it’s “OMFG what the hell are they doing?!”

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm just saying, I have no trust in our goldfish memories.  People aren't going to keep these protests up for another 5 months straight.  Now, this is all assuming nothing on this current level happens between now and November, which is admittedly, also unlikely, given our dipshit in chief.

Putin is obliging by moving peeps to the western border and then signing that little nuclear weapons decree. After all, he and Trump talked about stuff on the phone recently not that anyone can be bothered to listen in on those anymore. Since Trump is withdrawing troops from Germany, they're going to get up to no end of trouble. Putin will get whatever he wants (most likely Ukraine wherein documents that 'prove' Joe Biden and Hunter Biden were doing 'bad bad things.' You know what they are. Plus that 'nasty' fired Ambassador will finally be exposed for the Never Trumper she is.) , and Trump will have his distraction. I'm making stuff up, but fiction is reality these days so why not?

Spoiler

 

[gmr548 16511]

I'm just saying, I have no trust in our goldfish memories.  People aren't going to keep these protests up for another 5 months straight.  Now, this is all assuming nothing on this current level happens between now and November, which is admittedly, also unlikely, given our dipshit in chief.

I agree with you in general, that one was just kind of a shitpost golden opportunity. The flavor of the month will be entirely different in November - but Trump will probably still be dumbfuck, so there's that.

[TXSG8R 3360]

16 hours ago, tantric superman said:

One of the things that has shocked me about Trump is the complete absence of the emergence of any small stories of any humanity or grace.  Not an appropriate comparison, but five years ago when Hannity hate was pretty universal, you'd hear stories that he was a really great boss and there were stories of his generosity.    Have I just missed any such stories about Trump?  The help to the caddy with the sick child?  Being nice to a puppy.  Any kind of gesture of kindness?

I might be blocking it, but I just can't think of anything.  Is there even a Rosebud?

 

Best they got. 

[henrygandorf 29175]

50 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Biden is winning voters who hate both candidates.  Trump dominated this group in 2016.

Biden is doing much better with older white folks than Hilary ever did.

Biden is doing better with African Americans.

women.

learn it, know it, live it.

[Stringer 1437]

I think it's important to watch the Undecided.  That was a big pool of people in 2016 up until the election and that pool is much smaller now.  Trump has shown who he is and people know Biden.  If the Undecideds keep shrinking and Biden continues his 7-8 point lead, it's going to be a bloodbath for R's.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I’m guessing that people that never vote or vote infrequently are weighted less in quality polls. This year could see those people actually show up to vote against trump. 

Highly anecdotal but I have a couple of friends that never vote, don’t care about politics, and removed themselves from various group texts where politics are discussed. Both say they are 100% in on voting trump out. We will see...

[Hank Kingsley 20696]

Article linked above is a good summation of where we're at with polling numbers right now. 

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

He's an embarrassment. 

 

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

Heres what McLaughin is known for:

Donald Trump just hired the guy responsible for one of the biggest polling disasters in recent history.

John McLaughlin, a long-time Republican pollster based in New York, confirmed to The Daily Beast that he’s joined the Trump Train to poll New York State, as the campaigns hopes it will be competitive in November. The New York Times first reported that he was headed to team Trump.

McLaughlin is most famous for his role in a historic upset: the astounding primary 2014 defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor to college professor Dave Brat.

McLaughlin was Cantor’s pollster, and released a poll two weeks before the race indicating Cantor would win by 34 points.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-hires-gops-worst-pollster

[Horn Dogg 3808]

10 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

He's an embarrassment. 

 

 

This letter is downright hilarious.  I would write up some “make you feel better bullshit” if I was paid to do it as well.  I’ll bet John McLaughin is laughing all the way to the bank today.

Edited June 8, 2020 by Horn Dogg
Recovering C- student

[Ghost of LL 15492]

2 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

This this letter is downright hilarious.  I would write up some “make you feel better bullshit” if I was paid to do it as well.  I’ll bet John McLaughin is laughing all the way to the bank today.

Yeah--no shit.  In case anyone didn't think Trump isn't cratering under the pressure.

[Bruh Man 3160]

If he's bitching like this about a poll in early-June what's he going to be like after he loses? November/December are going to be insane months for this country.

[The Dog 43803]

About that party identification point he tries to make:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

25% Republicans IS low (but not by that much) and it's not an oversampling of Democrats (32%). 

Heck, give him 30% Republicans to bring it as rosy as possible and assume they all support Trump and he still is down 9 in the same poll.

[Horn Dogg 3808]

9 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

If he's bitching like this about a poll in early-June what's he going to be like after he loses? November/December are going to be insane months for this country.

America will just have to stand up and say “grab the loss, pussy.”

[gmr548 16511]

 

 

 

he’s joined the Trump Train to poll New York State, as the campaigns hopes it will be competitive in November.

 

I'm sorry, what?

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45494]

It blows my mind a bit that he uses "they are never-trumpers" as a defense.  Yeah, because you are a fucking despicable human being.  Same with his supporters.  Maybe, just maybe, it's not that it's all a grand conspiracy and everyone is out to get you because they are mean.  Maybe it's because your worldview is absolutely fucked.  

[Bateshorn 9899]

 While I agree that this is not the best day for the Trump campaign,  let’s not do the single poll thing.  

[SizzleChest 8275]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Heres what McLaughin is known for:

 

 

 

[WBT 20421]

Hmm, McLaughlin seems to really be hanging his hat on the 33% Republicans in 2016 exit polls.  For some reason, he thinks that number will be the same in 2020.  I wonder what could have happened in the last 4 years to drive the actual number down to 25-26%?

[henrygandorf 29175]

2 minutes ago, WBT said:

Hmm, McLaughlin seems to really be hanging his hat on the 33% Republicans in 2016 exit polls.  For some reason, he thinks that number will be the same in 2020.  I wonder what could have happened in the last 4 years to drive the actual number down to 25-26%?

whatever it is, i bet it starts with "fake".

[BradInATX 9208]

I like how the pollster just flippantly says that Trump gets about 90% of the Republican voter share, so he will get 100% of the Republican voter share. That's some good shit. I guess it's easier than trying to explain concepts like "90% of 7% is actually 6.3% so you're still down by over 7 points" to a man with the intellectual curiosity of a marshmallow.

Edited June 8, 2020 by BradInATX

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

3 minutes ago, WBT said:

Hmm, McLaughlin seems to really be hanging his hat on the 33% Republicans in 2016 exit polls.  For some reason, he thinks that number will be the same in 2020.  I wonder what could have happened in the last 4 years to drive the actual number down to 25-26%?

These feel good polls are nothing except to get the base excited of both sides.  I can remember back in 2012, talking to my mom who was the republican chair in Wilson county, for that election and she was all high on Romney beating Obama with some "silent majority" BS poll (in rural Texas county no less).  I was not even involved in politics at all at that point, and was further not that big of a fan of Obama (mostly due to doubling down on Bush II  doctrines rather than hope and change) and still put it on the line and flat out told her Romney had no chance due to incumbent president that had not royally fucked up and , oh yeah, you nominated a practicing Mormon.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

10 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The messaging needs to be changed to “Reform the police” ASAP because “defund the police” sounds batshit crazy and to many voters the thought of having no police at all is actually crazier than the bullshit Trump spews.   When you’re having to explain that “defund the police” is shorthand for other reforms and you don’t literally mean take away funding for police, or if you’re having to get into the weeds about “well actually most police are funded by the states and localities and we are only talking about federal funds - don’t worry,” then you have already way lost that battle.

Talk about de-militarizing police, eradicating racial prejudice in policing, and holding police accountable for abusing their authority.  And talk about it in those words instead of talking nonsense about defunding or disbanding or anything else that will scare people into thinking the Democrats want to eliminate the police from society.

Well, it IS smaller government. Where are all those Tea Party people? All they do is complain, complain, complain.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

28 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The messaging needs to be changed to “Reform the police” ASAP because “defund the police” sounds batshit crazy and to many voters the thought of having no police at all is actually crazier than the bullshit Trump spews.   When you’re having to explain that “defund the police” is shorthand for other reforms and you don’t literally mean take away funding for police, or if you’re having to get into the weeds about “well actually most police are funded by the states and localities and we are only talking about federal funds - don’t worry,” then you have already way lost that battle.

Talk about de-militarizing police, eradicating racial prejudice in policing, and holding police accountable for abusing their authority.  And talk about it in those words instead of talking nonsense about defunding or disbanding or anything else that will scare people into thinking the Democrats want to eliminate the police from society.

If a Republican runs on defunding healthcare/education/science it’s completely normal, almost expected. 

Defund police?  Anarchy!!

I get your point but our society is so fucked up when it comes to valuing public resources and that’s the real problem. 
 

[WBT 20421]

57 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The messaging needs to be changed to “Reform the police” ASAP because “defund the police” sounds batshit crazy and to many voters the thought of having no police at all is actually crazier than the bullshit Trump spews.   When you’re having to explain that “defund the police” is shorthand for other reforms and you don’t literally mean take away funding for police, or if you’re having to get into the weeds about “well actually most police are funded by the states and localities and we are only talking about federal funds - don’t worry,” then you have already way lost that battle.

Talk about de-militarizing police, eradicating racial prejudice in policing, and holding police accountable for abusing their authority.  And talk about it in those words instead of talking nonsense about defunding or disbanding or anything else that will scare people into thinking the Democrats want to eliminate the police from society.

Do you even abolish ICE bro?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Or how about defund Planned Parenthood? 

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

8 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Biden and Mark Kelly both lead there, pretty consistently. Especially Kelly. You were right that not much has changed there - they were winning three months ago and they're winning now.

I agree calling it a blue state is premature but it's not really a tossup right now. More of a slight democratic lean at the presidential level. That senate race is pretty much over at this point though.

AZ is 3.4% + for Biden in the latest RCP weighted polls.  That's the same as Wisconsin and Florida.  I don't think anyone is considering them blue states or even in the probable column.  Yes, Zona has some other context (acceleration towards blue because of demographics, last statewide election going Dem *barely, and a strong Senatorial candidate), but I'd be approaching it as we're behind by 2 points if I was the Biden camp.

CNN goes +14 for Biden.

These guys got a dead heat....

Rasmussen seen a 5 point game for Biden since a couple of weeks ago.  Doubt it holds but if he could just 2-3 points of it.

 

[Storm the Field 5273]

10 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

These guys got a dead heat....

Rasmussen seen a 5 point game for Biden since a couple of weeks ago.  Doubt it holds but if he could just 2-3 points of it.

 

1. Zogby is a dogshit online-only polling org that month after month shows a tied race and Trump at ~50% approval. Their poll release proudly proclaims "Trump is not yet down for the count!"

2. Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen Reports years ago. Those are two different polls.

[The Dog 43803]

Zogby was the gold standard once and now they are trash.

[henrygandorf 29175]

maybe zogby is just trying to account for the cheating.

[Bruh Man 3160]

47 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

1. Zogby is a dogshit online-only polling org that month after month shows a tied race and Trump at ~50% approval. Their poll release proudly proclaims "Trump is not yet down for the count!"

2. Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen Reports years ago. Those are two different polls.

And they kept the name? lol

[Chad Fuck 17565]

This letter is downright hilarious.  I would write up some “make you feel better bullshit” if I was paid to do it as well.  I’ll bet John McLaughin is laughing all the way to the bank today.

Only if he got paid in advance.

[LonghornSean 3942]

Got these comparisons of 2016 vs 2020 polling aggregates off a thread at Tigerdroppings.  Of course posters downvoted it to oblivion because polls aren't real.

 

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

3 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

1. Zogby is a dogshit online-only polling org that month after month shows a tied race and Trump at ~50% approval. Their poll release proudly proclaims "Trump is not yet down for the count!"

2. Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen Reports years ago. Those are two different polls.

Zogby does both online and phone polls or surveys.  Didn't look to see which one this may be, but Zogby is prone to wild fluctuations in both and usually not a reliable poll.

Rasmussen Reports is Scott Rasmussen's old company.  RMG is his current company which he still works at.  This poll is RMG.

 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

I can’t even fathom a 14 point spread, and I’ve been telling all of you to stop setting the bed- this thing is totally and completely history. But 14?  Nah- I don’t believe that shit for a minute. Trumpers aren’t answering the phone right now is my bet. This is a 7 or 8 point gap at the end of the day I’d bet. 

[Biff Tannen 45494]

2 hours ago, LonghornSean said:

Got these comparisons of 2016 vs 2020 polling aggregates off a thread at Tigerdroppings.  Of course posters downvoted it to oblivion because polls aren't real.

 

I can’t see shit. 

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I worry about a version of the Bradley effect with polling. The true trumpers will gladly tell a pollster they support trump. But I’m not sure some republicans who will pull the R lever no matter what will admit it. I think people like my parents who don’t like trump but will vote for him because “zomg libruls want communism” would just tell a pollster that they are undecided.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

New ad from Team Biden: