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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Rimbo

Rimbo 25,921

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Things that are more likely than Trump winning California:

1. An NFC East team winning the Superb Owl this year

2. @jimmyjazz deciding that the best band of the late 20th century is actually Warrant

3. @SydneyCarton converting to Mormonism

4. Tom Herman getting his shit together and winning the Big XII this year

5. Texas and Florida turning blue. I don't mean they go for Biden; I mean literally becoming the color blue, verified from satellite photographs.

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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
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Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6,569

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If woke and kneeling on the field swayed votes, then those people are looking for something and would find it either with or without woke and/or kneeling.  Kneeling during the anthem to contest police shootings of minorities, to which they are no part of, means nothing to them unless they want it to.  Finding offense in Black Lives Matter is another bs issue for them.   
This.

Anyone I know that opposed kneeling or is boycotting the NFL and crying on facebook was already solidly Trump and likely rather discreetly racist as well.
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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,531

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1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

There was an interesting discussion on the 538.com "Model Talk" podcast.  Essentially, there is a reason to be skeptical about national polls due to herding.  And there's reason to be skeptical of state-level polls because of low-quality of some of the pollsters.

The district-level polls, however, are resistant to herding because there aren't nearly enough polls to form a herd.  And they generally come from pollsters with some experience in the area.  So they might not be as high-quality as NYT/Siena or ABCNews/WaPo, but they're not Trafalgar, either.

Point being, that in 2016, all of the district-level polls by this point were showing serious warning signs for Hillary Clinton (especially in rural districts).  None of those warning signs are there in 2020.  Instead, all of the district-level polls are showing a more favorable environment for Biden than any of the national polls.  If you extrapolate out the district-level polls, they're indicating that Biden could win by 12-15 points.

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Reynolds Woodcock

Reynolds Woodcock 4,739

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2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

His stutter came back. You know Jill was digging her nails into his leg trying to correct him. 

 

Just in case any lurkers were duped by the disingenuous trolling of the human cum stain that is GRHorn, Joe Biden was speaking to GEORGE fucking Lopez in this spliced clip, in response to a question from Lopez about why undecided voters should vote. But yes, definitely the most logical conclusion is that Joe Biden momentarily believed he was running against the President from 2008.   

Edited by Reynolds Woodcock
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,534

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36 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

420 and 69 are like my two favorite numbers, so I really, really hope that's what it ends up being. It would be the most 2020 result

No, the 2020 result would be if it went that, but in favor of Trump. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16,576

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The analysis published with the poll basically indicates that Trump is running borderline unthinkably far behind 2016 in suburbs, but that higher support among Latino voters is keeping Trump afloat. They go on to note that they missed on Texas Latinos in 2018, they’re very hard to poll, and other surveys have shown a wide range of results among them. So worth taking with a grain of salt. One other interesting piece is that Biden lead is higher among Latinos that reported having already voted or certain to vote, Trump does better with less likely.

Also worth noting that if Trump is doing that badly in suburbs that, even if he wins the state (which is not a given for an incumbent polling at 47 percent), he could very well be the catalyst for more congressional flips and flipping the state house.
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Ghost of LL

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17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

I have to tell you--I view that as a pretty encouraging poll from the standpoint that it has 10% undecided.

Does anybody know how NYT/Siena do their likely-voter screen/weighting?  They're polling a state in which close to 2/3rds of the people who are going to vote have already voted.  So it starts to take on the flavor of an exit poll.  If you're not giving extra weight to people who have already voted, then I think you're doing it wrong.

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The Dog

The Dog 44,020

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Does anybody know how NYT/Siena do their likely-voter screen/weighting? 

IIRC Cohn said they don't put any special weight on people who have already voted over those who say they will (or meet the criteria for being a likely voter). I don't agree with that personally but these guys know what they are doing so who am I to question it?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,069

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30 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

This.

Anyone I know that opposed kneeling or is boycotting the NFL and crying on facebook was already solidly Trump and likely rather discreetly racist as well.

Yeah- but most people are pretty non political. If you don’t fire them up they might snooze right through things/not get activated in any way. 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8,079

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4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

There was an interesting discussion on the 538.com "Model Talk" podcast.  Essentially, there is a reason to be skeptical about national polls due to herding.  And there's reason to be skeptical of state-level polls because of low-quality of some of the pollsters.

The district-level polls, however, are resistant to herding because there aren't nearly enough polls to form a herd.  And they generally come from pollsters with some experience in the area.  So they might not be as high-quality as NYT/Siena or ABCNews/WaPo, but they're not Trafalgar, either.

Point being, that in 2016, all of the district-level polls by this point were showing serious warning signs for Hillary Clinton (especially in rural districts).  None of those warning signs are there in 2020.  Instead, all of the district-level polls are showing a more favorable environment for Biden than any of the national polls.  If you extrapolate out the district-level polls, they're indicating that Biden could win by 12-15 points.

Angst and PTSD be damned, we got this. Y'all need to chill 

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G650

G650 14,253

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Just now, TXSG8R said:

So what are the chances conservatives have a mission accomplished moment with ACB getting confirmed and their voter turnout fizzles the rest of the cycle?

Pretty fucking high if there is any justice. Of course Trump is currently President so there obviously isn't.

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gmr548

gmr548 16,576

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I have to tell you--I view that as a pretty encouraging poll from the standpoint that it has 10% undecided.
Does anybody know how NYT/Siena do their likely-voter screen/weighting?  They're polling a state in which close to 2/3rds of the people who are going to vote have already voted.  So it starts to take on the flavor of an exit poll.  If you're not giving extra weight to people who have already voted, then I think you're doing it wrong.

Not sure but I did find it interesting that only about half of respondents reported already voting when Texas is, in all likelihood, at 60-70 percent of total turnout at a little over 7 million. Biden being ahead among those that already voted (+7) does tell you they may be underselling him here, depending on how much weight that gets.
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,069

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14 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


The analysis published with the poll basically indicates that Trump is running borderline unthinkably far behind 2016 in suburbs, but that higher support among Latino voters is keeping Trump afloat. They go on to note that they missed on Texas Latinos in 2018, they’re very hard to poll, and other surveys have shown a wide range of results among them. So worth taking with a grain of salt. One other interesting piece is that Biden lead is higher among Latinos that reported having already voted or certain to vote, Trump does better with less likely.

Also worth noting that if Trump is doing that badly in suburbs that, even if he wins the state (which is not a given for an incumbent polling at 47 percent), he could very well be the catalyst for more congressional flips and flipping the state house.

Is there anyone out there that really thinks the state house isn’t going blue?  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19,069

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9 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Who gets the other 49 EC votes?

Yeah I read that, paused, looked as confused as Tucker Carlson when having a conversation and then figured out the problem that it didn’t add up. Those are all trump votes based upon the map. So 420-118. It could easily happen. 

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texastough

texastough 1,129

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22 minutes ago, swraith said:

I do not understand the mind of Hispanic voter.  

In TX they have been conservative for a long time. They still buy that the Dems = big govt, lots of spending, GOP = fiscal responsibility, against welfare. Then add in Catholicism and abortion issues. Then the fact that hispanic culture shifts move slowly due to close knit family units and respect for elders.

How they can stick to that in the face of Trump's actions and rhetoric is way beyond me.   

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Horndog

Horndog 2,228

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46 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Just in case any lurkers were duped by the disingenuous trolling of the human cum stain that is GRHorn, Joe Biden was speaking to GEORGE fucking Lopez in this spliced clip, in response to a question from Lopez about why undecided voters should vote. But yes, definitely the most logical conclusion is that Joe Biden momentarily believed he was running against the President from 2008.   

Wait.  I heard that Biden thought he was running against Abe Lincoln.  

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Helobious

Helobious 9,448

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4 minutes ago, swraith said:

I do not understand the mind of Hispanic voter.  

The Hispanic community as a whole has a natural conservative disposition. Huge Catholic influence, big time belief in family values, and a distrust of non-white races. The fact that the GOP doesn’t regularly carry over 50% of the Hispanic vote just shows how much their race baiting and alienation tactics have turned people off. In general, hispanics just want to blend in and be left alone. Not very politically active, not going to riot over anything, just not going to do much to draw attention usually. As a Hispanic voter I can try to give my 2 cents..

We’re not a monolith. We all come from very different backgrounds and usually mirror the political background of wherever we’re at. I feel a connection with Mexican-Americans from South Texas, since that’s my community. I don’t feel much connection with Mexican-Americans in El Paso or California or anywhere else. Or actual Mexicans from Mexico. We share little more than a heritage. There’s cultural differences, slight differences in appearance/dress usually, and even differences in language. Non-Hispanics might not notice all that but we do. And that’s just among the Mexicans. Multiply all that times Puerto Ricans, Dominicans, Salvadorans, etc for even more deviation. 
 

There’s also a big “ladder puller” element in the community. People that literally or figuratively climbed into America with a ladder and pulled it up behind them so no one else can come or have success. Fuck you I got mine. I’m glad my family raised me better than that but many others do not feel the same.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,447

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Some people are so fucking stupid. Is that Aubrey Huff former baseball player? 

He was, but now he's Aubrey Huff the angry moron. 

40 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I have to tell you--I view that as a pretty encouraging poll from the standpoint that it has 10% undecided.

Completely agree, particularly given that the data apparently says the undecideds are a mix of suburban women and people of color. Not saying it's happening, but the effect on downballot races could be huge heading into 2022. A Democratic Texas house could make things very tough for Patrick and Abbott. 

29 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

So what are the chances conservatives have a mission accomplished moment with ACB getting confirmed and their voter turnout fizzles the rest of the cycle?

Zero. It's baked in. 

15 minutes ago, texastough said:

In TX they have been conservative for a long time. They still buy that the Dems = big govt, lots of spending, GOP = fiscal responsibility, against welfare. Then add in Catholicism and abortion issues. Then the fact that hispanic culture shifts move slowly due to close knit family units and respect for elders.

How they can stick to that in the face of Trump's actions and rhetoric is way beyond me.   

There are also pro-business/entrepreneurship and even extremely anti-immigrant contingents.  Hispanics are very politically diverse.

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Longhorn_Fan68

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2 minutes ago, Helobious said:

There’s also a big “ladder puller” element in the community. People that literally or figuratively climbed into America with a ladder and pulled it up behind them so no one else can come or have success. Fuck you I got mine. I’m glad my family raised me better than that but many others do not feel the same.

I mean, it's no different than white people, it's just that we did hundreds of years ago and continue to do it. except it was sinking boats or pulling up anchors or some other analogy

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Fastbreak

Fastbreak 3,985

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The “undecided” people are voting for Trump. If you are undecided at this point you are simply too stupid to do the right thing. 
 

“you can either be fucked in the ass or have an ice cream cone”

”hmmm. I’m undecided. What brand of lube would be used?”

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Mo Horn

Mo Horn 8,832

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26 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I know quite a few Hispanic trumpers.  Their reason is the same as white folks.

”I got mine, fuck the rest”.

Yes, but doesn't go far enough. I grew up as a white guy in the Hispanic culture on both sides of the border. My in-laws are Hispanic from the RGV and the majority of them are Trumpers. There is such a huge chasm between classes in that culture and the racism within that culture is crazy. It doesn't matter if you came from the poorest of poor. Once you make it those still struggling are so far beneath you and looked down on as second class. This includes those trying to get into the country, so their immigration views are really conservative... but they will hire illegals in a heartbeat because it's cheaper and they can use them to further their climb. It's both fascinating and crazy to observe. Mrs. MO, and a few of her cousins have fled and realize how sick it is, and while they love their family they will never go back. 

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Goredho

Goredho 17,399

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2 minutes ago, Fastbreak said:

The “undecided” people are voting for Trump. If you are undecided at this point you are simply too stupid to do the right thing. 
 

“you can either be fucked in the ass or have an ice cream cone”

”hmmm. I’m undecided. What brand of lube would be used?”

I work in in the oil industry, so anything that promotes more lube use has my vote!

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,189

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1 minute ago, G650 said:

Way too much of a pain. I'm of the double it and add 30 school.

my wife bought a thermometer in the height of the hoarding shortage, and it's fucking celcius.

she takes her temp all the time, so i've basically just memorized what a "high temp" looks like.

everything 37.2 and under is normal.

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