2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[henrygandorf 29221]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

I would suggest googling the 2018 midterm results as a starting point.

It has kept coming too. GOP has continuously gotten murdered in the suburbs since Trump's election. A liberal Democratic judge ran six points or so ahead of Clinton in the notoriously Republican suburbs of Milwaukee just last week. A judge's race, which are know for 1.) Arousing Republicans more than sex, and 2.) People voting on general attitudes/partisan view as opposed to issues. This is so widely reported and documented that I am sure you know this, I don't know why you would plead ignorance. The only thing you might have accidentally been correct on is suburban voters being single-issue voters. A significant chunk of them do appear to be this cycle - the issue is removing Trump.

all of this. seriously, most everything since nov ‘18 in states trump desperately needs, has been bad. and when he goes and campaigns in person - it’s been worse.

the data is all there, and it’s not like the last 8 weeks goes on his highlight reel either. it’s gonna be a wipeout. 

[Spankytoes 1748]

4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's hard to overlook the fact that Trump has never had an approval rating over 50%.  And now with a poor economy and a national emergency that he isn't handling well, I really don't understand the people who think that Trump should be favored in this election.

It’s pretty simple really.

Trump is going to retain his support base. They aren’t going anywhere. The message will be that the media is inflating COVID-19 stats to make Trump look bad. With the whole #fakenews aspect, you’re not going to convince them to give up that bone. They saw it on TV and read it on Facebook. For all we know, this may prove to be 100% accurate as we progress through the data. Plus, free stimulus $ and cheap gas.

Trump is going to pick off Bernie voters that absolutely won’t vote for Biden. Or, they are going to stay home, which heavily favors Trump. This gives them the moral superiority of saying it’s not their fault Trump won without compromising their loyalty to Bernie by voting for Biden. Biden loses a lot of steam as the pick due to the Pandemic. Trump gets to campaign on TV for free without the need for a rally. No one is talking about Biden in the news cycle because he’s taking a backseat to the current crisis. He’s a palette cleanser candidate. I don’t know if I’ve discussed politics with anyone in NYC that liked Biden’s policies, or could give me examples of them, rather than him being “not-Trump”.

Rs that don’t like Trump are going to make a “lesser of 2 evils” vote. There will be an uptick voting for Biden over what Hillary got because Biden was the better candidate. I don’t know that there are enough flips in battleground states.

The “black vote” won’t be as strong this election cycle for Biden. It looks like pandering at this stage and Trump will seize on that. There is no evidence to show that a significant portion of black voters are on the fence and need convincing on which candidate to vote for. Throwing a minority woman out there is a Hail Mary play. Warren is the only real pick that may pay off since her 15 minutes is not quite up. (Wendy Davis, anyone?) Anyone else is too controversial or too divisive to pick off unsatisfied Rs. It’s voting for the VP, not the POTUS, which is the Ralph Lauren Chaps to the Polo. Trump has a nice chunk of the Latino vote already.

Now, there’s a long time until November. But it’s not hard to see why Trump is favored. 50% of this country voted for him last time...but do you see MAGA gear on display on any corner? (Well, when you could visit corners) Don’t underestimate the deafening effect of public silence. Kerry was supposed to hand W his ass after 9/11 and the Iraq invasion. 

[Celery Man 21076]

[henrygandorf 29221]

24 minutes ago, Spankytoes said:

50% of this country voted for him last time..

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

56 minutes ago, Spankytoes said:

It’s pretty simple really.

Trump is going to retain his support base. They aren’t going anywhere. The message will be that the media is inflating COVID-19 stats to make Trump look bad. With the whole #fakenews aspect, you’re not going to convince them to give up that bone. They saw it on TV and read it on Facebook. For all we know, this may prove to be 100% accurate as we progress through the data. Plus, free stimulus $ and cheap gas.

Trump is going to pick off Bernie voters that absolutely won’t vote for Biden. Or, they are going to stay home, which heavily favors Trump. This gives them the moral superiority of saying it’s not their fault Trump won without compromising their loyalty to Bernie by voting for Biden. Biden loses a lot of steam as the pick due to the Pandemic. Trump gets to campaign on TV for free without the need for a rally. No one is talking about Biden in the news cycle because he’s taking a backseat to the current crisis. He’s a palette cleanser candidate. I don’t know if I’ve discussed politics with anyone in NYC that liked Biden’s policies, or could give me examples of them, rather than him being “not-Trump”.

Rs that don’t like Trump are going to make a “lesser of 2 evils” vote. There will be an uptick voting for Biden over what Hillary got because Biden was the better candidate. I don’t know that there are enough flips in battleground states.

The “black vote” won’t be as strong this election cycle for Biden. It looks like pandering at this stage and Trump will seize on that. There is no evidence to show that a significant portion of black voters are on the fence and need convincing on which candidate to vote for. Throwing a minority woman out there is a Hail Mary play. Warren is the only real pick that may pay off since her 15 minutes is not quite up. (Wendy Davis, anyone?) Anyone else is too controversial or too divisive to pick off unsatisfied Rs. It’s voting for the VP, not the POTUS, which is the Ralph Lauren Chaps to the Polo. Trump has a nice chunk of the Latino vote already.

Now, there’s a long time until November. But it’s not hard to see why Trump is favored. 50% of this country voted for him last time...but do you see MAGA gear on display on any corner? (Well, when you could visit corners) Don’t underestimate the deafening effect of public silence. Kerry was supposed to hand W his ass after 9/11 and the Iraq invasion. 

I don’t disagree with this other than the black vote. They will be out in force. They almost singlehandedly won him the primary.

[Spankytoes 1748]

5 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I don’t disagree with this other than the black vote. They will be out in force. They almost singlehandedly won him the primary.

We’ll see. The primaries are a completely different ballgame. Obama’s endorsement did nothing for Hillary in 2016: https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-11-09/clinton-made-her-case-to-black-voters-why-didnt-they-hear-her

We’re in a weird time where Biden can’t campaign because it would be viewed as being in poor taste while Americans are losing their jobs and fear contracting a potentially deadly virus. Everyone hates political ads so ramping those up is a waste of $. He probably won’t get a bump from the DNC because no coronation will occur, and if it does in some form, the attitude will be “why you bringing up old shit?” He peaked too early to ride any momentum.

[gmr548 16681]

50% of this country voted for him last time.

Lol no. Not even particularly close. I don't think people realize just how lucky Trump was to win. He got a historically small portion of the vote for a winner. The stars had to align for him.

They did, and now he'll enjoy the strength of incumbency. I generally agree with most of your take, his support isn't going anywhere, but we also know he's earned basically zero new voters. He's going to end up with 46-47 percent of the vote again. He will need everything to go just right again. It could, but lightning doesn't often strike twice. Democrats have the votes to walk away with it. If they turn them out, ballgame. Nothing Trump can do. But since that requires some level of democratic competence, peoole are worried.

[Gengs1 2583]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

Lol no. Not even particularly close. I don't think people realize just how lucky Trump was to win. He got a historically small portion of the vote for a winner. The stars had to align for him.

They did, and now he'll enjoy the strength of incumbency. I generally agree with most of your take, his support isn't going anywhere, but we also know he's earned basically zero new voters. He's going to end up with 46-47 percent of the vote again. He will need everything to go just right again. It could, but lightning doesn't often strike twice. Democrats have the votes to walk away with it. If they turn them out, ballgame. Nothing Trump can do. But since that requires some level of democratic competence, peoole are worried.
 

 

You are underestimating the brain dead votes, these are the ppl who are protesting now and will ensure to get to polls once it gets close. They will be convincing everyone for trump 

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Spankytoes said:

We’ll see. The primaries are a completely different ballgame. Obama’s endorsement did nothing for Hillary in 2016: https://www.usnews.com/news/politics/articles/2016-11-09/clinton-made-her-case-to-black-voters-why-didnt-they-hear-her

We’re in a weird time where Biden can’t campaign because it would be viewed as being in poor taste while Americans are losing their jobs and fear contracting a potentially deadly virus. Everyone hates political ads so ramping those up is a waste of $. He probably won’t get a bump from the DNC because no coronation will occur, and if it does in some form, the attitude will be “why you bringing up old shit?” He peaked too early to ride any momentum.

This doesn’t matter all that much. This sounds like a Trumpsters dream take.

the vast majority of Americans don’t start paying attention to the election until the fall anyway. Biden is fine right now. Trump is the one making an ass of himself on TV everyday. The real health experts and media are getting tired of correcting all of his stupidity. Trump comes across to most people as an uninformed asshat.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Chuckie Finster 22978]

On Day 1 of the Trump Presidency, his approval rating average was 46% approve/37% disapprove.  Then, about three weeks in, his disapproval rating hit 52% and has basically hovered between that and 55% for three-plus years.

I know it's conventional wisdom that people have always known what Trump is, but the data shows that there was a decent percentage of undecided/"give him a chance" people at first.  They have subsequently, and almost unanimously, disapproved.

And here is where it manifests:

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Chuckie Finster

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

21 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

On Day 1 of the Trump Presidency, his approval rating average was 46% approve/37% disapprove.  Then, about three weeks in, his disapproval rating hit 52% and has basically hovered between that and 55% for three-plus years.

I know it's conventional wisdom that people have always known what Trump is, but the data shows that there was a decent percentage of undecided/"give him a chance" people at first.  They have subsequently, and almost unanimously, disapproved.

And here is where it manifests:

 

The vast majority of that loss is due to women.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

8 hours ago, Spankytoes said:

Now, there’s a long time until November. But it’s not hard to see why Trump is favored. 50% of this country voted for him last time...but do you see MAGA gear on display on any corner? (Well, when you could visit corners) Don’t underestimate the deafening effect of public silence. Kerry was supposed to hand W his ass after 9/11 and the Iraq invasion. 

That's not even close to right.  Trump got 46%.  He won the Electoral College because he won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by a total of 77,000 votes across those three states.  It was a razor-thin margin, but somehow Trump has convinced a large number of people--including a lot of Democrats--that it was some sort of resounding win.

You acknowledge that "Biden is a better candidate" than Hillary.  I mean, no fucking shit.  Is he a 77,000-vote-better candidate than Hillary across those three states?  I think that's a given.

12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Speaking as one of them, it's mostly a lack of faith in the Democratic Party and Stockholm Syndrome from Trump not only defying the odds in his 2016 victory, but having 40 percent of the country willing to die for him.

That said, I acknowledge that if we're just talking about the data, it's not Biden or Trump, it's how much does Biden win by. His lead is as large or larger than Clinton's pre-Comey. Trump has never gotten particularly close in the polls. Still, I have watched Democrats blow two elections in 2004 and 2016 that should not have even been possible. Voters appear so motivated to get rid of Trump that it might not even matter, but a lot can happen between now and November. I can easily envision a world where America has COVID deaths in the rear view mirror but eats up the scapegoating of China. I am honestly probably going to need to see it to really believe it after watching Trump be impervious to any kind of consequences for his actions for four years.

So, yeah, not logical.

I don't think you're acknowledging just how terrible a candidate Hillary Clinton was.  She was bad.  We knew she was bad by the fact that she lost states like Michigan and Wisconsin to Bernie Sanders in the primaries.  As this year's primaries show, a huge amount of that wasn't pro-Bernie; it was anti-Hillary.

And then on top of that you had James Comey show up with a letter reopening an investigation of her ten days before the election.  That could repeat itself (actually, it almost certainly will).  But unlike Bob Barr, James Comey actually had some credibility.

And what I really don't understand is your comparison to 2004.  That was a year in which we had a good economy, having recently emerged from the tech-bubble crash.  And the Iraq War wasn't yet unpopular.  Democrats were divided on the issue; Republicans and Independents were almost universally in favor and still supported Bush's handling of it.  The result was that Bush got the only plurality (and, in fact, a majority) in a presidential election for a Republican candidate in the past 32 years.  That's right--the last time a Republican won a plurality of the popular vote was 1988.

Think about that for a minute.  Think about what narrow margins the Trumpublican Party plays on in presidential politics.  We all know he hasn't expanded his base.  So is Trump going to be able to retain that 77,000-vote margin across those three states (and not lose any others (e.g., Arizona, North Carolina)) despite a pandemic and an economic depression?

I'm not going to say it can't happen.  But I'm very close to saying that it can't happen through legitimate electoral means.

[gmr548 16681]

I don't think you're acknowledging just how terrible a candidate Hillary Clinton was.  She was bad.  We knew she was bad by the fact that she lost states like Michigan and Wisconsin to Bernie Sanders in the primaries.  As this year's primaries show, a huge amount of that wasn't pro-Bernie; it was anti-Hillary.
And then on top of that you had James Comey show up with a letter reopening an investigation of her ten days before the election.  That could repeat itself (actually, it almost certainly will).  But unlike Bob Barr, James Comey actually had some credibility.
And what I really don't understand is your comparison to 2004.  That was a year in which we had a good economy, having recently emerged from the tech-bubble crash.  And the Iraq War wasn't yet unpopular.  Democrats were divided on the issue; Republicans and Independents were almost universally in favor and still supported Bush's handling of it.  The result was that Bush got the only plurality (and, in fact, a majority) in a presidential election for a Republican candidate in the past 32 years.  That's right--the last time a Republican won a plurality of the popular vote was 1988.
Think about that for a minute.  Think about what narrow margins the Trumpublican Party plays on in presidential politics.  We all know he hasn't expanded his base.  So is Trump going to be able to retain that 77,000-vote margin across those three states (and not lose any others (e.g., Arizona, North Carolina)) despite a pandemic and an economic depression?
I'm not going to say it can't happen.  But I'm very close to saying that it can't happen through legitimate electoral means.

Everything you said in regard to 2016 is correct. If I look at the data, I know Biden should be favored.

Bush wasn't in Trump's position in 2004, but he wasn't particilarly strong either. Approval right at 50 percent for most of the year. Kerry led in polls until mid August when the wave of swiftboat ads came. Democrats could've had that one if they ran someone people can get excited about.

I guess that's it at core of it. Biden falls into the Clinton-Kerry milquetoast box. Presidential elections are personality contests and those candidates do not win in the modern era. The evidence is mounting that America loathes Trump so much that it doesn't matter, but that's hard to shake.

[gmr548 16681]

Side note - I did not realize AZ has been polled six times since March 1. Biden leads them all, ranging from +1 to +9.

Between that and Mark Kelly I think you have to call AZ a slight blue lean until data shows otherwise.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

10 hours ago, Spankytoes said:

Trump is going to retain his support base. They aren’t going anywhere.

This is absolutely true, but it's hard to quantify the actual number of voters that define his current MAGA base. Trump got 63 million votes in 2016. How many of those people are the actual MAGA base right now? 40 million? 50 million? More? Less? 

In the weeks leading up to November '16, Trump gained 2-3% of late deciding voters to tighten the race. Are those people still MAGA? Or do they regret that vote now? It's true that Trump has a lot of silent supporters, but that would also mean he has silent dissenters that won't vote for him this time around. I can imagine there are plenty of people that flippantly voted Trump in '16 that won't do it again this year. 

Trump world has a big presence on social media. He has huge crowds at his rallies. It projects a lot of excitement and strength. But Bernie had the same thing. And then he got smoked by Biden when it became a two person race. Really think the '20 election is an unprecedented moment and that we can't use the typical indicators to measure support/excitement. The vast majority of voters have already made their decision. 

 

[gmr548 16681]

The vast majority of voters have already made their decision. 
 

This, I think, will be the biggest difference between 2016 and 2020. No one is a maybe on Donald Trump. There were a lot of undecideds in 16. Not so now.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

26 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Everything you said in regard to 2016 is correct. If I look at the data, I know Biden should be favored.

Bush wasn't in Trump's position in 2004, but he wasn't particilarly strong either. Approval right at 50 percent for most of the year. Kerry led in polls until mid August when the wave of swiftboat ads came. Democrats could've had that one if they ran someone people can get excited about.

I guess that's it at core of it. Biden falls into the Clinton-Kerry milquetoast box. Presidential elections are personality contests and those candidates do not win in the modern era. The evidence is mounting that America loathes Trump so much that it doesn't matter, but that's hard to shake.

I think you're mis-remembering 2004.

Bush was in pretty good shape.  An incumbent with an approval rating above 50% is typically in good shape.  You add to that the generic congressional ballot, which ended up with an RCP average of R+2.6, and he was in real good shape (it's a little-appreciated point that the generic congressional ballot is usually a very good predictor of the presidential outcome).

And there was good reason for those poll numbers.  The economy was growing.  Bush actually was a "wartime president" (and not a purely self-styled one during a not-war pandemic).  And he had actually expanded his appeal over the preceding four years.

And that was in pretty stark contrast to Kerry.  Kerry was a sitting senator, and sitting senators don't do well in presidential elections for a lot of the same reasons that Kerry had trouble ("I actually voted against the war, before I voted for it.")  Only three sitting senators have ever been elected president.  John Kerry wasn't the type of candidate that was going to buck that trend.  Add to that the fact that his party wasn't unified on the Iraq War.

That's a lot different from what we've got today.  Trump isn't even sniffing a 50% approval rating.  And while an incumbent with a >50% approval rating is usually in decent shape, an incumbent with a <45% approval rating is in serious, serious trouble.  Add to that the generic congressional ballot, which RCP currently has an average of D+8.2.

I mean, D+8.2?  That's the area of a fucking landslide.

So what's going to interrupt that?  Is Trump going to massively expand his appeal?  Is the American public going to suddenly realize that they hate Joe Biden?

I suppose anything is possible.  But the fundamentals of this election are such that, absent massive voter suppression and fraud, there is no way Trump should be particularly close in this thing.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Ghost of LL

[bad_teammate 13480]

For as stupid as Trump is, you have to have an opponent's respect for his campaign team. They got his shambling clown into the presidency and they have been taking a VERY smart tact in trying to get him re-elected. Black voters are important for Dems generally and Biden especially. Trump's campaign has been targeting black voters pretty strongly for a while.

From pumping black employment #s endlessly to stuff like this...

Attacking an opponent's biggest strength. Shrewd shit from Team Trump.

[David Dennison 19441]

5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

For as stupid as Trump is, you have to have an opponent's respect for his campaign team. They got his shambling clown into the presidency and they have been taking a VERY smart tact in trying to get him re-elected. Black voters are important for Dems generally and Biden especially. Trump's campaign has been targeting black voters pretty strongly for a while.

From pumping black employment #s endlessly to stuff like this...

Attacking an opponent's biggest strength. Shrewd shit from Team Trump.

That isn't going to get him one single vote.

[bad_teammate 13480]

Not taking their opponent seriously did wonders for the Democrats in the 2016 election.

[henrygandorf 29221]

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

For as stupid as Trump is, you have to have an opponent's respect for his campaign team. They got his shambling clown into the presidency and they have been taking a VERY smart tact in trying to get him re-elected.

not sure it’s the same folks, unless they’re strategizing from prison. 

also i think “tack” is what you were going for. 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

We’ve already entered the “you gotta hand it to Trump” phase of BT’s political journey in 2020. Lmao. 

[David Dennison 19441]

6 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Not taking their opponent seriously did wonders for the Democrats in the 2016 election.

They are taking Donald Trump very seriously. 

But that racist ad isn't going to get him any black votes.

[bad_teammate 13480]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

not sure it’s the same folks, unless they’re strategizing from prison. 

I get the joke, but seriously it is largely the same digital operation and team. Parscale is still in charge and they are probably even better at it this time around.

Quote

also i think “tack” is what you were going for. 

Very true. Good spot. pos rep

Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

We’ve already entered the “you gotta hand it to Trump” phase of BT’s political journey in 2020. Lmao. 

I respected his political operation in 2015, so it's nothing new for me to see him as a serious threat when others think he's just a joke. I watched over a dozen of his rallies and most of the debates and was laughed at when I said he was going to win the nomination. I thought Hillary would beat him handily, of course, but it was obvious to me very early that he was going to be the Republican nominee and that his campaign was smart as hell.

I don't have a conservative past to hide in shame from, so "never acknowledge a Trump strength or it shows you've relapsed into blood-thirsty Republican loyalty" isn't a purity test I feel compelled to pass.

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

They are taking Donald Trump very seriously. 

But that racist ad isn't going to get him any black votes.

You don't actually know either of these things. You hope those things and then state your hopes like they're facts.

I appreciate the blind faith, David, but it doesn't make for interesting conversation.

If Donald can swing 2-4% of the black vote Republican (which isn't out of the realm of possibility) and depress black turnout 5+% then he's neutralized Biden's singular advantage. It might not work, but it's a smart play and this ad shows that his team has an awareness of weak spots and how to hit them.

[David Dennison 19441]

8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I appreciate the blind faith, David, but it doesn't make for interesting conversation.

If Donald can swing 2-4% of the black vote Republican (which isn't out of the realm of possibility) and depress black turnout 5+% then he's neutralized Biden's singular advantage. It might not work, but it's a smart play and this ad shows that his team has an awareness of weak spots and how to hit them.

Whole lot of ifs. You don't know any more than I do.

I notice you don't mention the Democrats hitting Trump's weak spots.

Edited April 20, 2020 by David Dennison

[henrygandorf 29221]

24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Not taking their opponent seriously did wonders for the Democrats in the 2016 election.

agreed.  but what evidence do we have that they are heading towards repeating this? 

and by "they" i mean the actual campaign.  i know plenty around here aren't taking him seriously, but that's like fans getting focused for a big college football game.

[Chuckie Finster 22978]

11 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If Donald can swing 2-4% of the black vote Republican (which isn't out of the realm of possibility) and depress black turnout 5+% then he's neutralized Biden's singular advantage. It might not work, but it's a smart play and this ad shows that his team has an awareness of weak spots and how to hit them.

This is like jumping in a wastewater treatment basin, finding a few pieces of corn, and concluding that the town must have a healthy diet.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

This election will come down to how well the democrats turn their people out in key states. We know that trump has the most loyal base of any modern politician and they will turn out for him. We also know that democrats will be fighting an uphill battle in states that are actively trying to suppress the vote. I’m far from a “polls don’t mean shit” guy, but Dems will have to have a solid lead in swing state polls for me to feel comfortable. 

One positive I will give biden is that black voters have shown up for him. That was an area where Hillary was particularly weak, especially in key cities such as Philadelphia and Milwaukee. 

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 minute ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I’m far from a “polls don’t mean shit” guy, but Dems will have to have a solid lead in swing state polls for me to feel comfortable. 

I won't feel comfortable until he is dragged from the White House kicking and screaming and thrown into a paddy wagon, after which the driver rolls out at 15mph and the paddy wagon nosedives into the Potomac.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

This a legitimate weakness with the Biden campaign and needs to be addressed ASAP. 

He should be hiring the best and the brightest from other campaigns. 

 

 

[henrygandorf 29221]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This a legitimate weakness with the Biden campaign and needs to be addressed ASAP. 

He should be hiring the best and the brightest from other campaigns. 

 

 

yeah, i can see some old school campaign staffer types working off a traditional calendar.  throw that shit out the window.

digital is more important now, even without the pandemic.  if this went to the convention and there was no coronavirus, i can see july/august being a targeted date to ramp up the online presence.  anyone clinging to those dates needs to be sent packing and replaced yesterday. 

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

It's interesting to me to see both sides and how confident some are.  I get both arguments, but let's look at where we stand right this minute and see if it matches up with some poster's opinions.  What is it going to take for the election to match up with some of our more bombastic predictions.  

Democratic gains:  Currently (right this moment), Biden leads Trump nationally by about 5-6 points in the last 4-6 weeks.  That's good but hardly a lock as twice in the last 5 elections has the GOP candidate actually lost the popular vote but won the electoral college.  D's have to be excited they have consistently led in Michigan by about 5-6 points the last 6 weeks.  Additionally, Arizona has been encouraging for the D's as they have consistently polled higher.  There is some weakness in the average as it's propped up by two polls (8/9 point wins) and these looks like outliers but they've come in the last month.  Probably more like a 2-4 margin currently.  If they can flip Zona, then Wisconsin isn't a necessary win.  Biden is competitive in Florida and it looks like a toss up right now.

GOP strength:  While Trump doesn't have a lot of realistic flip opportunities currently, he doesn't have to flip anything.  He just has to play defense and while the margins are small, he still leads in places like North Carolina (Trump 1-3%), Iowa, and Georgia.  Toss ups look like Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and those states broke late for Trump 4 years ago.  I think most folks think Florida will end up red, so this could come down to Pennsylvania actually and not Wisconsin if Arizona holds blue.   

Frankly, I think Pennsylvania is a must win for both parties and may go a long way to informing the parties on Election night whether this will done early or a nail biter....

If you think Biden is going to crush, then you have to operate he's going to at least win Pennsylvania, Michigan and at least Florida and/or split Wisconsin or North Carolina.

If you think Trump is going to easily win, you must be thinking he holds Florida, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.  That's pretty much the only way it's an easy win for him..... otherwise, it probably is a nail biter in the wee hours waiting for Arizona to come in.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Edited April 20, 2020 by Patrick Bateman

[bad_teammate 13480]

10 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I notice you don't mention the Democrats hitting Trump's weak spots.

Because that's all we fucking do here 24/7/365.

This place is a non-stop parade of pointing out Trump's every weakness and flaw. Which is fine if that's all that interests you, but I get bored with that and like to try to not just eat the same meal off the same plate every single day.

Start a "boosters only" thread and I swear I'll never darken its door.

7 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

agreed.  but what evidence do we have that they are heading towards repeating this? 

and by "they" i mean the actual campaign.  i know plenty around here aren't taking him seriously, but that's like fans getting focused for a big college football game.

- The laser-like focus on Trump himself as a bad person/incompetent leader.

- The complete lack of a central leader figure who inspires.

- The complete lack of "here's what I'll give you if you vote for me".

- The focus on how anyone who might like Trump is evil and stupid and beyond approach.

It's not a 1:1 match between Hillary '16 and Biden '20 (so far), but the parallels are pretty obvious.

Can you point me to anything from Biden '20 that would look out of place in Hillary '16?

6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This is like jumping in a wastewater treatment basin, finding a few pieces of corn, and concluding that the town must have a healthy diet.

Donald Trump is the President of the United States of America

He defeated the most experienced candidate in recent Democratic history who had the entire center/center-left media establishment fully behind her. The entire mass cultural industry was behind her. She spent $1B+ on her campaign. And he beat her.

I'm not talking about his quality as a human or leader, but the strength of his campaign.

2 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

One positive I will give biden is that black voters have shown up for him. That was an area where Hillary was particularly weak, especially in key cities such as Philadelphia and Milwaukee. 

Hillary did better with black voters in the '16 primary than Biden did with black voters in the '20 primary.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

20 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This a legitimate weakness with the Biden campaign and needs to be addressed ASAP. 

He should be hiring the best and the brightest from other campaigns. 

 

 

The Wisconsin Dems' staff should be on speed dial for the Biden campaign.

[DixonHur 11941]

20 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Hillary did better with black voters in the '16 primary than Biden did with black voters in the '20 primary.

Exactly why I think we're looking at Vice President Kamala Harris on the ticket

[David Dennison 19441]

I hope Trump wins to spite BT.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Interesting little back and forth here. Applewhaite was a Rapid Reponse Director for Buttigieg's campaign. She's good.  Flaherty is Biden's Digital Director (worked for Beto's campaign last year before being hired by Joe) who's always been a little pissy towards Mayor Pete. 

I like the pressure being applied to Joe's team. Complacency is unacceptable. 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[henrygandorf 29221]

22 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

GOP strength:  While Trump doesn't have a lot of realistic flip opportunities currently, he doesn't have to flip anything.

but he also isn't polling well on the close states he needs to hold.  polling, 2018 results, and local results since, are all bad for trump in a number of those states.  in fact, i'm not sure there's an encouraging one in the bunch.

and i'm not talking about georgia or texas, or even ohio or florida.  arizona, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina.  you can't feel good about those states right now if you're team trump.

[DixonHur 11941]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I hope Trump wins to spite BT.

[henrygandorf 29221]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Interesting little back and forth here. Applewhaite was a Rapid Reponse Director for Buttigieg's campaign. She's good.  Flaherty is Biden's Digital Director (worked for Beto's campaign last year before being hired by Joe) who's always been a little pissy towards Mayor Pete. 

 

 

ugh.

never refer to your own team as scrappy.  especially when you're currently polling as the favorite.  nobody cares about south carolina anymore.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

but he also isn't polling well on the close states he needs to hold.  polling, 2018 results, and local results since, are all bad for trump in a number of those states.  in fact, i'm not sure there's an encouraging one in the bunch.

and i'm not talking about georgia or texas, or even ohio or florida.  arizona, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina.  you can't feel good about those states right now if you're team trump.

I mean, that's right.  It's like being up 5 points with :40 left in the game, and you tell me "all we need to do is not give up a touchdown."  Yeah--that's great.  I suppose I feel pretty good about that in a vacuum.  But then if I look down at the field and I see the other team has 1st-and-Goal with the ball at the 3-yard line, I'm probably not feeling so hot.

[henrygandorf 29221]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

I mean, that's right.  It's like being up 5 points with :40 left in the game, and you tell me "all we need to do is not give up a touchdown."  Yeah--that's great.  I suppose I feel pretty good about that in a vacuum.  But then if I look down at the field and I see the other team has 1st-and-Goal with the ball at the 3-yard line, I'm probably not feeling so hot.

nah, we have the ball. 

[Grade of D as in David 13255]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

They are taking Donald Trump very seriously. 

But that racist ad isn't going to get him any black votes.

You're discounting the Uncle Tom voting block compromised of Ben Carson, Diamond, and Silk.

 

[Hiphopopotamos 21158]

1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

For as stupid as Trump is, you have to have an opponent's respect for his campaign team. They got his shambling clown into the presidency and they have been taking a VERY smart tact in trying to get him re-elected. Black voters are important for Dems generally and Biden especially. Trump's campaign has been targeting black voters pretty strongly for a while.

From pumping black employment #s endlessly to stuff like this...

Attacking an opponent's biggest strength. Shrewd shit from Team Trump.

I'm sorry - but I can't get over the fact that you think this ad was aimed at winning over black voters?  What the fuck?

[bad_teammate 13480]

You don't think that's their intention?

[Patrick Bateman 3966]

45 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

but he also isn't polling well on the close states he needs to hold.  polling, 2018 results, and local results since, are all bad for trump in a number of those states.  in fact, i'm not sure there's an encouraging one in the bunch.

and i'm not talking about georgia or texas, or even ohio or florida.  arizona, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, north carolina.  you can't feel good about those states right now if you're team trump.

And some of this is fair.  I would think Trump supporters would point back to the 2012 map and the "Blue Wall" isn't reforming.  Trump continues to be fairly easily favored in Iowa and Ohio, which Obama won and competitive (currently toss up) in PA, WI and FL.  If there is a flip possible, it may be in New Hampshire, which had Trump by 2 in the last poll, but that was in late February so there is some questions about where we stand now.  I definitely think Trump would feel better if he had 3-4 point lead in Florida or PA so he could concentrate his immense resources towards winning the other.

[henrygandorf 29221]

9 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

And some of this is fair.  I would think Trump supporters would point back to the 2012 map and the "Blue Wall" isn't reforming.  Trump continues to be fairly easily favored in Iowa and Ohio, which Obama won and competitive (currently toss up) in PA, WI and FL.  If there is a flip possible, it may be in New Hampshire, which had Trump by 2 in the last poll, but that was in late February so there is some questions about where we stand now.  I definitely think Trump would feel better if he had 3-4 point lead in Florida or PA so he could concentrate his immense resources towards winning the other.

don't forget about north caro, michigan, and arizona.  we're talking about 5-6 states and trump needs most of them, and biden leads in most of them.

but more than that, i think i'm the most encouraged by what is happening in local races where (a) trump won the state in 2016, (b) the gop is trying to suppress votes, and (c) trump is personally involving himself in the elections.  maybe it's all just part of the wisconsin high from last week, but it seems like every time trump goes somewhere to campaign openly for someone down-ballot, or tweets, or whatever the gop is doing to make a push, the dems are pushing back harder and louder and finally standing up for themselves.  the attitude just seems different.

i'd love to see the record in all of those races since november of 2018, because it doesn't paint a pretty picture.  add to that the number of senate races with encouraging polling and really encouraging fundraising (encouraging if you're a democrat), and things just seem to be shifting.

if you're team-trump, and your plan is to "just hold the states we won in 16" then you're fucked.  and i think they know that, which is why we've seen (and will see a lot more of) targeting new states and demos.  also i'm sure his plan to ramp up biden's disapproval into the 50's like he did with hillary, but that shit ain't gonna work this time around thank god.

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

 

[Prepuce of Doom 21260]

So in light of the fact that Georgia is now going to be the canary in the coal mine, if shit goes as predictably sideways as it well may, does being able to dunk on Kemp's handling of this situation increase the likelihood that Stacey Abrams will be Biden's choice for VP? 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by Prepuce of Doom

[Ghost of LL 15664]

2 hours ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

So in light of the fact that Georgia is now going to be the canary in the coal mine, if shit goes as predictably sideways as it well may, does being able to dunk on Kemp's handling of this situation increase the likelihood that Stacey Abrams will be Biden's choice for VP? 

 

Here's the problem with Stacey Abrams: she's never held more than a state house seat.  And whoever Biden picks is going to need to be able to assume the presidency immediately.  I think that pretty much narrows the field to (1) Senators, (2) Congresswomen, (3) Governors, and (4) Michelle Obama.