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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I worry about a version of the Bradley effect with polling. The true trumpers will gladly tell a pollster they support trump. But I’m not sure some republicans who will pull the R lever no matter what will admit it. I think people like my parents who don’t like trump but will vote for him because “zomg libruls want communism” would just tell a pollster that they are undecided.

I think they mostly showed that there wasn't much of that in 2016, I don't know why it would change much this year. 538 projected Hillary to win the popular vote by 3.6%, and she won it by 2.1%. If you take that 1.5% away from Biden's current 7-8% polling, he's still way ahead of her and would easily win the election. Right now Biden's lead is so consistent and strong that any "silent majority" type thing would be lost in the noise.

The larger concern, IMO, is a big economic bounce back and a vaccine in the September/October area which of course he will take credit for and sway back enough voters to win. It's a real possibility.

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8691

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10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I think they mostly showed that there wasn't much of that in 2016, I don't know why it would change much this year. 538 projected Hillary to win the popular vote by 3.6%, and she won it by 2.1%. If you take that 1.5% away from Biden's current 7-8% polling, he's still way ahead of her and would easily win the election. Right now Biden's lead is so consistent and strong that any "silent majority" type thing would be lost in the noise.

The larger concern, IMO, is a big economic bounce back and a vaccine in the September/October area which of course he will take credit for and sway back enough voters to win. It's a real possibility.

There could be a vaccine tomorrow and I don’t see how any voter would credit Trump for it. What if scientists in Germany or the UK prove efficacy in clinical trials? I know Trump tries to take credit for any good news, but it’d have to be a special set of circumstances for anyone to buy that shit. But sure, the moron who asked doctors two months ago if we could just give people flu shots gets credit for science

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
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1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

There could be a vaccine tomorrow and I don’t see how any voter would credit Trump for it. What if scientists in Germany or the UK prove efficacy in clinical trials? I know Trump tries to take credit for any good news, but it’d have to be a special set of circumstances for anyone to buy that shit. But sure, the moron who asked doctors two months ago if we could just give people flu shots gets credit for science

 

There were enough stupid voters to elect him the first time - they're still out there.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I think they mostly showed that there wasn't much of that in 2016, I don't know why it would change much this year. 538 projected Hillary to win the popular vote by 3.6%, and she won it by 2.1%. If you take that 1.5% away from Biden's current 7-8% polling, he's still way ahead of her and would easily win the election. Right now Biden's lead is so consistent and strong that any "silent majority" type thing would be lost in the noise.

The larger concern, IMO, is a big economic bounce back and a vaccine in the September/October area which of course he will take credit for and sway back enough voters to win. It's a real possibility.

Yeah......

 

im not an economics geek, but it’s not hard to grow the economy when it can pretty much only go anywhere but up. The Democrats have to get thru 4 more jobs reports and 2 more end of quarters. The economic numbers from Q2 shouldn’t be impressive because it includes April and early may which were quarantined.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

Yeah......

 

im not an economics geek, but it’s not hard to grow the economy when it can pretty much only go anywhere but up. The Democrats have to get thru 4 more jobs reports and 2 more end of quarters. The economic numbers from Q2 shouldn’t be impressive because it includes April and early may.

 

All priced in. Stonks out front shoulda told you.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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I'm parking it here because it's election related. You've probably heard the stories circulating regarding the Feds/law enforcement capturing cell data during the protests? Some folks were even suggesting turning phones off or leaving at home, etc. I've been catching some chatter that Barr and Co. are going to pursue federal convictions from the data on protestors so that those folks will be purged from the voter rolls and cannot vote (since likely Democrats). I have some doubt, because I believe it would require a conviction and that would be somewhat time consuming when there are so many faster ways to disenfranchise/purge votes, but do you all see any angle that I'm missing? I assumed it was just good old fashioned government surveillance and they would figure out some use for it later., plus the pursuit of violent agitators (such as the guy that burned the police station).

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The Dog

The Dog 43802

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RMG's numbers are interesting - they have Trump leading in KY by 17 and McConnell in a statistical dead heat. Is there something about McConnell that I don't know that would be hurting him at home? I don't think KY will overwhelmingly vote for Trump and kick out McConnell otherwise. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45492

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26 minutes ago, The Dog said:

RMG's numbers are interesting - they have Trump leading in KY by 17 and McConnell in a statistical dead heat. Is there something about McConnell that I don't know that would be hurting him at home? I don't think KY will overwhelmingly vote for Trump and kick out McConnell otherwise. 

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/polls/mcconnell-under-water-on-approval-in-kentucky/

 

Quote

PPP’s newest Kentucky poll finds that Mitch McConnell continues to be unpopular in the state, with only 41% of voters approving of the job he’s doing to 48% who disapprove. Only 69% of Republicans approve of the job he’s doing, and independents split against him 30/53.

McConnell only has a 47-44 lead against a generic Democratic opponent. By contrast Donald Trump has a 16 point lead over Joe Biden in the state, 55/39.

 

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WBT

WBT 20420

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Yeah, $1 million is the tip of the iceberg.  From the day after the election through inauguration., there are going to be hundreds of secret service agents camped out at mar-a-lago

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kevwun

kevwun 15643

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You can also rest assured that all of the cronies that he is funneling money to are giving him some back.  How many times have we found out that some donor got a contract to provide a product or service that they aren't qualified to do?  And that's just the ones we know about.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29174

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20 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Man, all those very serious republicans concerned about “Clinton Cash” or the cost of Obama’s vacations I’m sure are beside themselves about the President using his office for personal profit. 

this used to be something i would label as grifting. but from now on, let’s just call it what it is - looting. 

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The Dog

The Dog 43802

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18 minutes ago, kevwun said:

He doesn't do a lot for Kentucky from what I have seen.  I don't know what kind of reputation his constituent services have, but would anyone be shocked it they were also shitty?

OK that would make sense. I think my perspective is skewed by what I've seen in Texas - where support for Trump is low and that is having an impact down ballot. I would think Trump being popular would help McConnell there and was wondering what was unique about his situation. 

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15486

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3 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

This is somewhat disappointing. But not surprising. 

 

He has missed his chance, and he knows it.  If Texas doesn't turn blue in 2022, it will by 2026.  And neither Abbott nor Patrick are vacating their positions before then.

Just about the time P. is ready to take a primetime position is going to be the time that the Democrats gain control of the state.

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The Dog

The Dog 43802

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2 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I've seen some responses that say that D's are over-represented in the survey.  This is apparently a brand new polling agency (their first poll was in Feb) so there is no track record for success/failure.

On 538 you can click on the poll details: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/michigan/

It does seem to have a slight D bias, but also dovetails with the previous poll that had Biden up 12. He's probably not up by 15 but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's attacks on Whitmer have backfired. 

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19150

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On 6/8/2020 at 9:05 AM, Horn Dogg said:

I think you are right.  Never underestimate a hateful voter who thinks he’s a high roller and that’s worried his 401K balance might drop by $25,000 if we put a Democrat in charge.

I have had a 401k since 1996.  The only times my balance has gone down have been with Republicans in the White House.

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WBT

WBT 20420

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2 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

But also like Ted Cruz, he’s so craven it makes him do really dumb shit, like hitching his wagon to Trump’s sinking ship instead of positioning himself to be a leading voice in the post-Trump party.

It's funny you say that.  Cruz has obviously been running for president since birth and I thought his stunt at the convention was pretty genius.  It was obvious that even if Trump won that he would be a disaster and being in the anti-Trump wing of the party would payoff eventually.  Plus Trump was less popular than the average R in Texas so it would have helped him for Senate re-election too.  And yet he completely walked it back and became a Trump bootlicker for some reason.  At this rate he'll have a really tough re-election in 2024.

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gmr548

gmr548 16504

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42 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

AZ is 3.4% + for Biden in the latest RCP weighted polls.  That's the same as Wisconsin and Florida.  I don't think anyone is considering them blue states or even in the probable column.  Yes, Zona has some other context (acceleration towards blue because of demographics, last statewide election going Dem *barely, and a strong Senatorial candidate), but I'd be approaching it as we're behind by 2 points if I was the Biden camp.

Yeah, and I don't think "slight democratic lean" is in conflict with that, especially considering the state of the senate race.

It's also worth noting that of the 16 polls on RCP, all from 2/19 on, Biden has led in 11 of them. Three are ties, and two are Trump (+1 and +2). The RCP average is where it is because Trump eeked out a +1 lead in a targeted online poll with a sample of 329 just last week. Prior to that, the last poll Biden wasn't leading was January (tie) and the only other Trump lead was December. Biden has twice led outside the margin of error, including in April of this year (another poll by the same group in May which is in the RCP average has his lead just inside the MOE), while Trump has not accomplished that.

The full body of data tells us AZ is leaning Biden. It's not fully gone the way of Colorado, but if Biden's campaign puts in the work and gets out the vote, he will win.

 

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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28 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah, and I don't think "slight democratic lean" is in conflict with that, especially considering the state of the senate race.

It's also worth noting that of the 16 polls on RCP, all from 2/19 on, Biden has led in 11 of them. Three are ties, and two are Trump (+1 and +2). The RCP average is where it is because Trump eeked out a +1 lead in a targeted online poll with a sample of 329 just last week. Prior to that, the last poll Biden wasn't leading was January (tie) and the only other Trump lead was December. Biden has twice led outside the margin of error, including in April of this year (another poll by the same group in May which is in the RCP average has his lead just inside the MOE), while Trump has not accomplished that.

The full body of data tells us AZ is leaning Biden. It's not fully gone the way of Colorado, but if Biden's campaign puts in the work and gets out the vote, he will win.

 

Given how much Trump has angered Latinos and suburban voters, Biden may not have to put too much effort into it. Trump's rhetoric and behavior is game over for the GOP here. Biden is also being helped by one of the best Senate candidates this state has ever seen. 

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The Dog

The Dog 43802

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8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LOL. 

Trump has flooded the zone with horrifying shit on a daily basis for 4 years, and these Joe "gaffes" are not going to move the needle at all.  

 

That's what I think - any time Biden puts his foot in his mouth Trump goes on a Tweet tirade and drowns it out. 

That said, it's a dumb comment and he's right that we won't see if there is any impact on the polls yet.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20681

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

That's what I think - any time Biden puts his foot in his mouth Trump goes on a Tweet tirade and drowns it out. 

That said, it's a dumb comment and he's right that we won't see if there is any impact on the polls yet.

He's being sarcastic in that tweet. The 10-15% comment will have zero impact on the polls. 

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 20865

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Just now, The Dog said:

That's what I think - any time Biden puts his foot in his mouth Trump goes on a Tweet tirade and drowns it out. 

That said, it's a dumb comment and he's right that we won't see if there is any impact on the polls yet.

Check your sarcasm meter?  Biden's 10-15% comment isn't going to have any effect on any poll.  No one gives a shit.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20681

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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Did anyone actually give a shit about that, aside from the fake pearl-clutching? 

No. 

And if people transfer the energy spent on pearl-clutching to talking with friends/family/colleagues and making sure they vote Biden and downballot Dems in November, we'll be in great shape. 

 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

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Daves Weigel and Wasserman earnestly desire a close game. They need Biden to say something that they can point to so that they can generate concern. It gets them no clicks if it stays comfortable for Biden. 

10-15% is are not good people? That's not a stretch. That's at least the number of citizens that are totally bought in on conspiracy theories and other BS. It's pretty much a known. 

Pundits aren't going to let Biden coast. I don't expect them to either. I don't think this comment is going to push the needle one way or the other though. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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4 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Daves Weigel and Wasserman earnestly desire a close game. They need Biden to say something that they can point to so that they can generate concern. It gets them no clicks if it stays comfortable for Biden. 

10-15% is are not good people? That's not a stretch. That's at least the number of citizens that are totally bought in on conspiracy theories and other BS. It's pretty much a known. 

Pundits aren't going to let Biden coast. I don't expect them to either. I don't think this comment is going to push the needle one way or the other though. 

I agree.

roughly 10-15% of this country is white trash low information voters who mainly vote GOP despite having less than $100 in their bank account at any given time.

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The Dog

The Dog 43802

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1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

He's being sarcastic in that tweet. The 10-15% comment will have zero impact on the polls. 

Oh ok. 

I don't know the guy or his intent. TBH I haven't seen any coverage of that comment so I was kind of caught off guard by it. 

Derp.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20681

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3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Oh ok. 

I don't know the guy or his intent. TBH I haven't seen any coverage of that comment so I was kind of caught off guard by it. 

Derp.

Weigel is a very good political reporter, but he can be a bit of a wild card at times. He's a former Ron Paul/Gary Johnson (in 2012) voter who seems to be pretty friendly with some of the self proclaimed "dirtbag left".  But in general he's very knowledgeable and level-headed. 

 

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