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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


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Posted

Nate admitting (to his credit, I might add) that shit may be borked in their Hispanic sample. Also, something I've wondered about this is that there really hasn't been much polling in Texas, so they are learning on the go. 

Now that it appears that Texas is approaching "swing state" status the pollsters are going to have to make the time and investment here to be accurate. And that's going to be very expensive for them as well as the candidates who now need to actually campaign here. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'll tell the truth for one barbacoa taco.

Add a lengua taco, and I'll tell you whatever you want to hear.

No wonder you were drawn to the Longhorns. The silhouette logo has all your favorite cuts of beef. 

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Posted

For the bedwetters on the left still thinking Trump has a chance- this is what the PA poll that has Trump up 2 looks like:

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf


Completely implausible pretty much everywhere- the only cross tab I might believe is the white voters at 56 or 57 for Trump. Keep in mind- he went mid to high 60's last time (right?  RIGHT?) when he managed to lose by 3 points to Hillary). 

 

Posted
15 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm sensing that if I offered you a couple dozen tacos of your choice from your favorite local establishment that you could be convinced to but up a massive Trump sign in your yard. 

Not Bad Kind Of GIF by MOODMAN

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Posted
2 hours ago, Calihorn said:

Angst and PTSD be damned, we got this. Y'all need to chill 

Can’t chill until he’s out, until he’s completely fucking out.

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Posted

Cool, just got my first robocall. NAACP calling to tell me they are going to call back tomorrow night to join their virtual event in which the naacp president will host the cast of Fargo in a discussion of race relations in the new season and how it relates to the upcoming election. 
 

I’m guessing my Houston area code cell number is what got me on their call sheet.  Sounds kind of interesting actually. 

Posted
16 minutes ago, SameSame said:

Can’t chill until he’s out, until he’s completely fucking out.

This.

I won't chill until he's out, all the way out....if that happens.

And you're goddamned right it's PTSD, but the problem is, it's fucking ongoing -- it's TSD, and it's ongoing.  My kingdom for us to get to the "P" part of PTSD.

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Posted
Put a gun to my head and I'd bet Texas hispanic support for Trump is closer to 20% than 40%

Three Hispanic groups create votes for the Republicans - a lot of Hispanic business owners who take typical Republican views, a lot of Catholics, and a lot who’ve seen socialism in LA and the Caribbean and want to stay as far away from it as possible.
Posted
26 minutes ago, SameSame said:

Can’t chill until he’s out, until he’s completely fucking out.

Agree.  When he concedes on or around November 10th I still will be worried about the next 2+ months.

Posted
4 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Agree.  When he concedes on or around November 10th I still will be worried about the next 2+ months.

He will never concede.  He might have a cabinet member of press secretary, but you will never, ever, ever hear him concede he lost.   Ever. 

Posted
1 minute ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

He will never concede.  He might have a cabinet member of press secretary, but you will never, ever, ever hear him concede he lost.   Ever. 

as long as he leaves I don't fucking care.

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

For the bedwetters on the left still thinking Trump has a chance- this is what the PA poll that has Trump up 2 looks like:

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf


Completely implausible pretty much everywhere- the only cross tab I might believe is the white voters at 56 or 57 for Trump. Keep in mind- he went mid to high 60's last time (right?  RIGHT?) when he managed to lose by 3 points to Hillary). 

 

I mean, the basic math doesn't even work.  

image.thumb.png.08204f654d655348e7b5096c9e789dd9.png

5.3% of the 20 Hispanics are undecided?  There's no way to get any of those numbers out of a sample of 20.

41.2% of the 18 Others is 7.42 people.

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Posted
53 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Body temperature and taco talk not going away.  Well, we can keep the taco talk I guess.

That's funny because I ate some carnitas tacos off a taco truck a couple of weeks ago and within an hour my temperature went up and I had the shits.  Not sure if that was related.

Posted
as long as he leaves I don't fucking care.

Be prepared for him to burn it all down on the way out and grift his way to millions of dollars thru pardons, contract awards and other actions.
Posted
12 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I mean, the basic math doesn't even work.  

image.thumb.png.08204f654d655348e7b5096c9e789dd9.png

5.3% of the 20 Hispanics are undecided?  There's no way to get any of those numbers out of a sample of 20.

41.2% of the 18 Others is 7.42 people.

Could be something along the lines of a likely voter model that gives more weight to people who have already voted. Doesn't necessarily mean that the math is bad. 

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Posted (edited)

It’s hard to express how off base this is and how inherently arrogant and racist Kushner is.  He truly needs his ass kicked.

Edited by SameSame
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Posted
8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Could be something along the lines of a likely voter model that gives more weight to people who have already voted. Doesn't necessarily mean that the math is bad. 

Then all of those numbers shouldn't add up to 100 in each column.

Posted
34 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

For the bedwetters on the left still thinking Trump has a chance- this is what the PA poll that has Trump up 2 looks like:

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf


Completely implausible pretty much everywhere- the only cross tab I might believe is the white voters at 56 or 57 for Trump. Keep in mind- he went mid to high 60's last time (right?  RIGHT?) when he managed to lose by 3 points to Hillary). 

 

Not exaggerating, a High School social studies/government teacher that decided to do have his students do an election project would almost certainly put out a more professional poll.

Trump up 5 with voters aged 18-44, a demographic that Clinton won in PA by 10 points.

Biden crushing with Indies, but they only make up 8% of the sample (vs. 20% of PA voters in 2016.)

No apparent educational weighting.

It has all the classic hallmarks of the other MAGA-pumping polls flooding the averages lately (Rasmussen, Trafalgar, Susquehana):

1. Trump under 50% but ahead by 2 or 3 b/c Biden is stuck around ~45%. Seriously, it's almost always 47-45 or 48-46.

2. Biden's numbers inevitably are dragged down b/c Trump is pulling 2-3x the black vote as 2016 and 15-20% of Democratic respondents are crossing over to Trump or are undecided. 

3. Results released via 1-2 page PDF with extremely limited crosstabs and accompanying article talking about how the results paint a different picture than mainstream media consensus and touting the polling outfit as the only one who saw Trump's historic 2016 win coming...etc.

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Posted
Just now, Beau Vine said:

Then all of those numbers shouldn't add up to 100 in each column.

Yeah, they still would. If half of the 20 have voted and you count then as 1.4 "people" each, and half of the 20 have not voted and you count them as 0.6, it's still going to add up to 20 total, but you aren't going to get clean percentages that are multiples of 5. Hopefully that makes sense, it's a gross oversimplification but that's the general gist of how things get weighted differently. 

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Posted
13 minutes ago, SameSame said:

It’s hard to express how off base this is and how inherently arrogant and racist Kushner is.  He truly needs his ass kicked.

He's the new leader in the clubhouse of "most punchable faces."

Posted
56 minutes ago, SameSame said:

It’s hard to express how off base this is and how inherently arrogant and racist Kushner is.  He truly needs his ass kicked.

the ticker there is hilarious. reads 100% like something from idiocracy some 10+ years back. 

which i know we know, but damn that is on fucking point funny

Posted
56 minutes ago, SameSame said:

It’s hard to express how off base this is and how inherently arrogant and racist Kushner is.  He truly needs his ass kicked.



No shit. It's not the fact that the police killed a man in a way that was clearly so fucked up, it's the fact that people expressed their outrage at the police killing a man in the way that was so fucked up.



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