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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
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Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Longhornmaniac8 said:

Big numbers out of Maricopa County (Phoenix).

That might be game over for Trump here in AZ. If he loses Maricopa there isn't enough to overcome it plus the other blue parts here.

 

EDIT: Also, thank you for an AZ guy, I've been looking for one since 2019

Edited by Calihorn
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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1 minute ago, Calihorn said:

That might be game over for Trump here in AZ. If he loses Maricopa there isn't enough to overcome it plus the other blue parts here.

I mean- I’ve always said he had no chance in AZ but I’d guess Trump wins election day. I say that as a wild ass guess bc of his people being now they are and not knowing voting patterns of AZ, but maybe you can shed some insight. 

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Longhornmaniac8

Longhornmaniac8 255

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3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

FWIW, Sinema polled right at 51% in Maricopa and that was enough to win statewide.

62% of the Arizona 2018 Senate vote came from Maricopa County.

The margin there was 60,255 votes for Sinema. The statewide margin was 55,900 votes. Basically, as goes Maricopa, so goes Arizona.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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9 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

One last time for people like me who don't 'do' polls very well. They are estimating the 'R' and 'D' votes based on with what party the voter is registered and/or voted in primary?

Yes. Registered voters who have voted, not published votes for candidates. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18963

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Just now, Longhornmaniac8 said:

62% of the Arizona 2018 Senate vote came from Maricopa County.

The margin there was 60,255 votes for Sinema. The statewide margin was 55,900 votes. Basically, as goes Maricopa, so goes Arizona.

That’s pretty unusual for major metro area I would think. Any idea why that is?  

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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11 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Trump beat Clinton by 90k there.  That is a 130k swing right there.

It's silly to compare early votes to total votes.  Dems are more likely to vote early than Republicans.  People in 2020 are much more likely to vote early than 2016. 

The stats are something that looks nice, but doesn't really say much.  

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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I'm more confident in AZ than the Rust Belt at this point. Biden is going to win by about 3%. There's nothing that would give Trump any hope there. It's one of the very few states where Hillary actually outperformed the polls (so basically a reverse-"Shy Trump Voter" phenomenon there). Biden has a comfortable polling lead. Early returns show huge turnout and a ton of Democrats voting. 

AZ is solid for Joe.

Edited by BradInATX
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Huckleberry

Huckleberry 32685

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1 minute ago, Tuco said:

Dems are more likely to vote early than Republicans.

That's been the assumption for this year because of Trump's rhetoric, but based on the votes coming in along with where and from whom they're coming demographically I don't think that it's going to be as split as we thought between early voting being Dem and Election Day voting being Rep.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11667

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I'm more confident in AZ than the Rust Belt at this point. Biden is going to win by about 3%.

if you're feeling saucy, plug AZ in here.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

You can give Rs a lot of red and still be a loser.  I put in TX, IA, NC, GA, OH red and trump still only has a 1 in 5 chance.

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15348

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Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s pretty unusual for major metro area I would think. Any idea why that is?  

Maricopa is huge.  It's not like Dallas County or Travis County.  It includes not just Phoenix, but also all of Phoenix's suburbs (along with a fair amount of absolute nothing).  Apache and Coconino (Tuscon and Flagstaff, respectively) will go Democratic by large enough margins that it cancels out the rest of the state, which will go largely Republican (in particular Pinal County, which includes Phoenix's far-southwestern exurbs). 

That pretty much leaves Maricopa as the deciding county.

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Zonahorn

Zonahorn 8079

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- I’ve always said he had no chance in AZ but I’d guess Trump wins election day. I say that as a wild ass guess bc of his people being now they are and not knowing voting patterns of AZ, but maybe you can shed some insight. 

Arizona is a majority mail state my dude. More than 60% of us vote by mail early.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29187

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6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s pretty unusual for major metro area I would think. Any idea why that is?  

Maricopa County accounts for something like 62% of the entire state's population. Pima County is the next largest and it's about 15%.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Mohave County is the reddest in the state. It's basically hell on earth. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if you're feeling saucy, plug AZ in here.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

You can give Rs a lot of red and still be a loser.  I put in TX, IA, NC, GA, OH red and trump still only has a 1 in 5 chance.

Nice. Yeah. That map does seem to assume that states will move in unison, at least partially. I'm not sure that AZ and the Rust Belt are that closely correlated this time around. I still think there's a chance that polling for the Sun Belt and SEC states is going to end up pretty accurate and the Rust Belt is going to go rogue, much like last time. Not necessarily that Trump will win, but just that polling could very well nail Arizona and be off by 5 in the Rust Belt.

But to your point Arizona opens up a lot of different paths. AZ+FL+2016 alone is enough. It also means that the election could be called on election night and we could prevent a lot of potential Trump post-election fuckery.

 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think it attracts retirees, so disproportionately olds

Yeah, I just looked at Coconino on a map, that makes sense. I didn't realize it scooped up some of Sedona and that area north of Sedona on your drive up to Flagstaff from Phx. I figured Flagstaff proper would be something like 90/10.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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12 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

That's been the assumption for this year because of Trump's rhetoric, but based on the votes coming in along with where and from whom they're coming demographically I don't think that it's going to be as split as we thought between early voting being Dem and Election Day voting being Rep.

And maybe the assumption will be wrong, but it's one that is pretty reasonable when one candidate is pushing early voting and the other is attacking it.  I'm not sure what you mean by "from whom they're coming demographically,"  The only demographics I see there are party affiliation (any major changes in registration have already happened) and that they are in Maricopa Co.  And what that evidence supports is "Democrats are more likely to vote early in this election cycle."  Hopefully that will portend greater Dem turnout (relative to Republicans) in total, but right now that is just a hope.   

10 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Arizona is a majority mail state my dude. More than 60% of us vote by mail early.

Really good to know.  

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Maricopa County accounts for something like 62% of the entire state's population. Pima County is the next largest and it's about 15%.

I don't think it's a coincidence that Mohave County is the reddest in the state. It's basically hell on earth. 

Also good to know.  

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17420

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14 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

da fuq?

Also, what are 1,000 troops dispersed over five major cites going to accomplish? I don't think anybody will even be able to notice them unless they are all literally standing in place. 

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Longhorn_Fan68

Longhorn_Fan68 33825

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Also, what are 1,000 troops dispersed over five major cites going to accomplish? I don't think anybody will even be able to notice them unless they are all literally standing on in place. 

it's to prove Abbott still has a leg to stand on. or maybe it's that he won't simply roll over.

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Also, what are 1,000 troops dispersed over five major cites going to accomplish? I don't think anybody will even be able to notice them unless they are all literally standing on in place. 

Well, I certainly hope they stay the fuck off the streets unless something happen.  The last thing I want is for him to station a bunch of troops in areas he thinks are likely to riot - ie, the places with heavy Dem turnout.  

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Also, what are 1,000 troops dispersed over five major cites going to accomplish? I don't think anybody will even be able to notice them unless they are all literally standing in place. 

200 cops in Austin is a 1:1 cop to black person ratio

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