2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Wax Beer Cup 382]

15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That's interesting. I don't trust Iowa for shit either, but they must see something in their internals.

Apparently to help the Senate race more than anything from story I read today. 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

This is some bone chilling M Night Shyamalan shit.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,825]

2 minutes ago, Wax Beer Cup said:

Apparently to help the Senate race more than anything from story I read today. 

Good. That tells me they're confident. And they should be. And they need to be. Gotta help affect as many down ballot races as possible

[thepop 4,409]

I don't know if 61% is good or bad. One week left for 700k people to return their ballots.

 

[Tom 2,959]

2 hours ago, The Dog said:

Not sure if already posted. Great tool from the NYT tracking who donated to which candidate by zip code from the NYT:

The Two Americas Financing the Trump and Biden Campaigns

Instructive on which states and which areas will go to each candidate. Follow the money, as they say.

 

 

This is pretty cool, but it also makes me much less confident that Biden is going to win Texas.  

Trump only received more donations in my zip code by 30-something people, so at least not as many of my neighbors are as Trumpy/GOP as I assumed they were.  And Biden actually won Grapevine.  Most of the 'burbs are still pretty Trumpy though.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Tom

[TexEx15 17,444]

26 minutes ago, thepop said:

I don't know if 61% is good or bad. One week left for 700k people to return their ballots.

 

I hope a large number of those decide not to risk it and instead vote in person.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

3 hours ago, immamac said:

you guys are hilarious. Election will be over by 6pm CST next Tuesday.

Thats way early. No way. Polls will still be open in most, if not all, states. 

But I do get what you're saying. The pacific states ain't voting Trump. But those lines in Atlanta, Houston, Saint Louis. They're gonna be left out in the cold. Only one machine was working when the polls closed. And you know that Harris and Fulton County only claimed to need 3 voting machines for each of their only 3 or 4 precincts. 

I'm probably waiting until election day myself even though I was really just a single unexpected conference call away from voting today. Early voting by me is all long lines and almost a mile walk away. Meanwhile my precinct hasn't had a line in any election since I've lived here, and all the rabid voters are early voting.  But Biden will win close to 90 percent of my precinct and probably 70 percent of my state. They arent trying to disenfranchise me. The real difference between the GOP and Dems is seen in Max Rose's district. A Dem state allows it to be competitive. A GOP state wouldn't. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by FondrenRoad

[immamac 42,492]

3 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Thats way early. No way. Polls will still be open in most, if not all, states. 

But I do get what you're saying. The pacific states ain't voting Trump. But those lines in Atlanta, Houston, Saint Louis. They're gonna be left out in the cold. Only one machine was working when the polls closed. And you know that Harris and Fulton County only claimed to need 3 voting machines for each of their only 3 or 4 precincts. 

I'm probably waiting until election day myself even though I was really just a single unexpected conference call away from voting today. Early voting by me is all long lines and almost a mile walk away. Meanwhile my precinct hasn't had a line in any election since I've lived here, and all the rabid voters are early voting. 

It's just lol that people think in an election where almost 70M have voted with a week to go that GOP has a shot at anything. Voter turnout only favors one party and it's not the one trying to actively suppress the vote. 

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

It's just lol that people think in an election where almost 70M have voted with a week to go that GOP has a shot at anything. Voter turnout only favors one party and it's not the one trying to actively suppress the vote. 

Maybe. But I do think Trump voters are rabid so they will vote early. Also, the Electoral College is a monkey wrench. Trump may lose the popular vote by 20+ million votes. But he could still win the presidency. Just like he will probably still win your state and Florida. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by FondrenRoad

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

It's just lol that people think in an election where almost 70M have voted with a week to go that GOP has a shot at anything. Voter turnout only favors one party and it's not the one trying to actively suppress the vote. 

Need to win by a landslide to win.  Anything close heads to the rigged Supreme Court.  Have to absolutely cave trump’s fat melon right in.  No other options.  

[immamac 42,492]

14 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Maybe. But I do think Trump voters are rabid so they will vote early. Also, the Electoral College is a monkey wrench. Trump may lose the popular vote by 20+ million votes. But he could still win the presidency. Just like he will probably still win your state and Florida. 

Go fucking vote then you pussy ass bitch. 

Edited October 27, 2020 by immamac
This is meant in the most loving way possible <3

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

Go fucking vote then you pussy ass bitch. 

Oh I'm gonna vote, sweetie. I'm just gonna do it on election day like a proper asshole. 

[immamac 42,492]

4 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The caveat to that is that it's at least possible a much higher percentage of people are voting early this year compared to other years because of Covid.  I agree that if the early voting numbers really are indicative of huge turnout, then Trump is about to get crushed.  He would actually get crushed much worse than the polls show in that scenario, as the polls are all adjusted in a myriad of ways as the pollsters try to normalize their results using assumptions that are primarily based on prior elections.

But if you assume people are just voting earlier and overall turnout isn't going to be that much different, and Democrats are more likely to be voting early or by mail than Republicans, then the apparent margins so far aren't insurmountable at all.  

I think it's more likely we do get huge turnout this year.  That's based on my very scientific, data-driven hypothesis of "What the fuck else do people have to do in 2020?"  This election is about all that's going on to fill the void for people who lost their jobs or have to work from home, who don't have any new movies to watch, can't go to restaurants, parties, vacations, etc.  Instead of a chore, politics is one of the only distractions left, and voting is an excused reason to leave the house and do something.

Hays county already voted more than it did in 2016 and we still have a week to go + election day. 

Voters under 30 have already voted in an order of magnitude higher number than ever before. 

This doesn't mean take the foot off the gas. This means all gas no brakes. Everyone needs to vote. Fucking 90% Registered Voter  turnout is what we should want. With another 7 days @ only 1% turnout per day texas will exceed voter turnout for the entire election without election day turnout which is at least 15% of RV.

 

[thepop 4,409]

I know this has already been discussed to an extent but I just can't believe these numbers

 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

That shirt though

[Pato del Muerto 52,321]

12 minutes ago, thepop said:

I know this has already been discussed to an extent but I just can't believe these numbers

 

753,000 is 2/3 of 106,000?

[jimmyjazz 45,513]

16 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

753,000 is 2/3 of 106,000?

Forget it, he's rolling.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

37 minutes ago, thepop said:

I know this has already been discussed to an extent but I just can't believe these numbers

 

Btw....

 

even the most skeptic among us here is fucking crazy if they don’t believe 70%+ of these votes aren’t going to Biden. Young people hate trump. Tik tok. Hello?

Edited October 27, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, thepop said:

I don't know if 61% is good or bad. One week left for 700k people to return their ballots.

 

I think you have to look at where the ballots are outstanding. For the democrats, it is pretty good here.

in Wisconsin, they say that democrats get most of their strength from Dane county ( Madison) and Milwaukee county ( Milwaukee).

democrat county return rates : 

Dane = 71 %

Milwaukee = 60.2 % 

Rock = 64%

theres also 3 small blue counties up north that Clinton won last time that have return rates of about 70% each.

republicans typically rely on what’s called the WOW counties which are right next to each other.

republican county return rates :

Washington = 52.5%

Ozaukee = 57.1%

Waukesha = 56.3%

Brown = 63%

[TexasEd 8,062]

52 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

753,000 is 2/3 of 106,000?

Says Early votes are 2/3rds of all voting in 2016.  So there must have been 1.13 million votes in that age range in 2016 all told.

[TexasEd 8,062]

15 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I think you have to look at where the ballots are outstanding. For the democrats, it is pretty good here.

in Wisconsin, they say that democrats get most of their strength from Dane county ( Madison) and Milwaukee county ( Milwaukee).

democrat county return rates : 

Dane = 71 %

Milwaukee = 60.2 % 

Rock = 64%

theres also 3 small blue counties up north that Clinton won last time that have return rates of about 70% each.

republicans typically rely on what’s called the WOW counties which are right next to each other.

republican county return rates :

Washington = 52.5%

Ozaukee = 57.1%

Waukesha = 56.3%

Brown = 63%

percentages don't count, number of votes are what counts.  This tells me nothing.

[Pato del Muerto 52,321]

2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Says Early votes are 2/3rds of all voting in 2016.  So there must have been 1.13 million votes in that age range in 2016 all told.

As I see it now. Text compares early to total, while graph compares early to early. Brilliant. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,321]

1 minute ago, TexasEd said:

percentages don't count, number of votes are what counts.  This tells me nothing.

It tells you that Biden votes are mostly safely recorded, and votes nullified after 11/3 will be majority Trump votes. 

[Jhawkmvp 1,488]

8 hours ago, smuggs said:

Kushner's face is more tailored for a savage bitch-slap, IMO.

[Mdhorn 5,908]

7 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

It's still a remarkable number of people voting for one of the worst humans to ever get the nomination of a major party.

It will be a defeat of Trumpism in terms of numbers, but that megalithic kidney stone tearing it's way along the urinary track is not going to be expelled. 

If not for Covid, what would Trump's numbers be?

I harp on this, no doubt. It's upsetting. Still, I won't deprive myself of the pleasure of seeing Trumpism firmly slapped into a minority position.

This is a census year--with redistricting coming up--win Congress and more governors and you win the future.  Also, make PR and DC states.  Sure PR isn't a shoe in for Dems but it is an island that is susceptible to hurricanes and financial aid, two major lifelines.  If they want statehood, then this would also work for the Dems.  Additionally, stack the courts and boom, the Republicans will gnash their teeth for a long, long time.  

This is also why I expect more bullshit to hit the fan in the next two weeks.  It's way too much for them to risk and they've already been caught cheating--nobody cheats to fail.  The SCOTUS is in their favor and short term reasons is the push--the elections.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Mdhorn

[Longhorn_Fan68 33,825]

https://www.facebook.com/6363207806/posts/10158055317197807/

[Mdhorn 5,908]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

753,000 is 2/3 of 106,000?

[Pancho 44,358]

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

From Pancho's link:



My god. I think we can put to bed the concern that the early vote enthusiasm is anything but a massive anti-Trump tsunami.

In 2016 these late polls that included people who had voted were showing momentum to Trump. This is really, really good for Biden. If we see more of this over this week, it's probably going to be an electoral slaughter. No wonder Biden is going to Iowa.

[horncyclist 1,384]

This can't hurt:

 

[immamac 42,492]

Yeah. This is virtually over before the 3rd. 3rd is nail in coffin cuz of all the fondrens of the world. 

[horncyclist 1,384]

From article above on Bloomberg's spending:

Howard Wolfson, one of Mr. Bloomberg’s closest aides, said the former mayor had recently asked his team to run a round of polls to see whether Mr. Trump had unexpected vulnerabilities that could be exploited in the campaign’s closing weeks. Up to this point, Mr. Bloomberg’s general-election activities have focused on Florida, where he has pledged to spend $100 million supporting Mr. Biden.

 

The Bloomberg team conducted polling in a number of states over the weekend and came away convinced that Texas and Ohio represented its best targets — narrowly divided electoral prizes where the war for television airtime is not already cluttered with heavy advertising on either side. The team presented Mr. Bloomberg with the numbers on Monday morning and he gave the go-ahead.

Texas being called for Biden on election night to put him over the top would feel so fucking good.

[DigglerontheHoof 21,022]

10 hours ago, thepop said:

Text friends tonight and remind them to go vote. People are lazy af and don’t realize the importance.

I'll text the correct friends to vote.  Some will be, purposefully, omitted. 

[wildcat09 29,187]

Kavanaugh pretty clearly wants SCOTUS to steal the election for Trump. This is fine.

[immamac 42,492]

I mean it's a good thing Roberts and Gorsuch aren't pieces of shit. I don't think Clarence Thomas would support it either. 

That's 5 easy. Stop acting cuz ACB and Kavanaugh are morally bankrupt partisan stooges that the rest of the SC doesn't get it and are equally braindead. There's some "showmanship" involved in dissent or votes. Many of the Judges look not only at the letter of the law, but how it will effect the future. RBG didn't convince people to change their legal opinion she convinced people the future was better with a certain valid legal opinion. To think the rest of the supreme court is just a toxic cancer waste pool is insulting and if you think that then ACB doesn't matter. 

RBG wasn't the only bastion of hope and good thing about the SC. 

[wildcat09 29,187]

Clarence Thomas has literally done it before and Roberts’ lifelong passion is voter suppression. Gorsuch is more of an unknown but has yet to vote with the good guys on any voting rights case so I’m not holding my breath. If it comes down to a close fight in one state like in 2000, they’ll steal it just like they did then. Hell, they might do it if two or three states are close enough. The only way they’ll exercise any restraint is if we absolutely mudhole the GOP.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

I mean it's a good thing Roberts and Gorsuch aren't pieces of shit. I don't think Clarence Thomas would support it either. 

That's 5 easy. Stop acting cuz ACB and Kavanaugh are morally bankrupt partisan stooges that the rest of the SC doesn't get it and are equally braindead. There's some "showmanship" involved in dissent or votes. Many of the Judges look not only at the letter of the law, but how it will effect the future. RBG didn't convince people to change their legal opinion she convinced people the future was better with a certain valid legal opinion. To think the rest of the supreme court is just a toxic cancer waste pool is insulting and if you think that then ACB doesn't matter. 

RBG wasn't the only bastion of hope and good thing about the SC. 

Clarence Thomas has given the democrats nothing since he’s been confirmed in the early 90’s. He’s widely seen as a huge partisan hack who hates the democrats. I’m not sure if he’s actually that conservative or he just wants to “ own the libs” for making his confirmation hearing difficult and uncomfortable. Either way, Biden was a big leader in the senate during Thomas’s hearing and I doubt he would do anything to help or save Biden if the opportunity presents itself.

you’re better off hoping he retires ASAP or something crazy happens to him.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,232]

9 hours ago, thepop said:

I don't know if 61% is good or bad. One week left for 700k people to return their ballots.

 

Guesswork:

a lot of people are probably going to put their ballot in the mail today, because it’s exactly me week before the election, which is the  guidance on mail in ballots. 
 

Also. I haven’t seen any data on this but I speculate that a lot of D voters who had planned to vote by mail are voting early in person instead due to concern about making their vote counted.

[Neonmoon 38,127]

We can't count legally cast votes received after election day because it might flip the results of an election? 

Seriously. That is your argument. Legally cast votes might influence an election? 

I can't even

[wildcat09 29,187]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We can't count legally cast votes received after election day because it might flip the results of an election? 

Seriously. That is your argument. Legally cast votes might influence an election? 

I can't even

But don’t you see, states want to announce a winner on the night of the election. Even though they literally never do that.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

 

Bless your heart.

As long as Roger Stone (is he in prison? No? ah well, nevertheless), Corey Lewandowski (likewise), Steve Bannon (likewise), Chris Christie (likewise), David Bossie (Citizens United), Paul Manafort (home confinement maybe?), Jennifer Locetta (Trump Florida campaign team 2016, then 2020 now advising), and others are doing the legwork, all they have to do is create enough chaos to challenge in several R states or swing states and yes, I believe they will either

1. figure out a way to overturn a Biden victory

--or--

2. lay the groundwork with decisions to seal it for the future (such as with Bush v Gore).

I am pessimistic this morning and it's influencing my outlook admittedly.

[Aqua Buddha 14,488]

33 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Kavanaugh pretty clearly wants SCOTUS to steal the election for Trump. This is fine.

This from a lawyer who worked on Bush v Gore.

[Hank Kingsley 20,635]

No reason to feel comfortable with the Supreme Court if Trump tries to steal the election. 

I'm questioning if Fox News even calls any states for Biden that are within 5-6 points on election night. 

Republicans know their reckoning in coming, and they will not go down without one last fight. They will destroy the country to keep power if the opportunity is there. The only chance of keeping this peaceful is a Biden blowout on Tuesday. 

 

[immamac 42,492]

2 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Bless your heart.

As long as Roger Stone (is he in prison? No? ah well, nevertheless), Corey Lewandowski (likewise), Steve Bannon (likewise), Chris Christie (likewise), David Bossie (Citizens United), Paul Manafort (home confinement maybe?), Jennifer Locetta (Trump Florida campaign team 2016, then 2020 now advising), and others are doing the legwork, all they have to do is create enough chaos to challenge in several R states or swing states and yes, I believe they will either

1. figure out a way to overturn a Biden victory

--or--

2. lay the groundwork with decisions to seal it for the future (such as with Bush v Gore).

I am pessimistic this morning and it's influencing my outlook admittedly.

This is the dumbest shit I've ever read. Just stop fear mongering and vote. 

[4th&Five 41,457]

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

This is the dumbest shit I've ever read. Just stop fear mongering and vote. 

We did, last weekend. If you didn't watch the 537 votes show on HBO and listen to the Roger Stone segments (and what he intimated was just as important as what he did not outright say) then you are underestimating the GOP. I believe Biden is going to win, but I also believe that our Judicial Branch has undergone extreme harm.

[immamac 42,492]

1 minute ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

We did, last weekend. If you didn't watch the 537 votes show on HBO and listen to the Roger Stone segments (and what he intimated was just as important as what he did not outright say) then you are underestimating the GOP. I believe Biden is going to win, but I also believe that our Judicial Branch has undergone extreme harm.

Show me any legal theory or path forward and I'll hang up and listen. Otherwise stop spouting nonsense fear mongering. 

[Hank Kingsley 20,635]

If it's a modest Biden victory (around 290-300 EVs, 5-6 point win on national popular vote), we will need Republicans like McConnell, Cruz, Graham, etc. to confirm and publicly accept the results on election night. That still might not stop the violence.

I hope people are mentally prepared for what happens if this is "close" at all. 

 

 

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

10 hours ago, Pancho said:

Biden heading to Iowa this week per the twitters. 

Fuck that.  Biden should be in PA and should not leave until after the election.  If he does it should be to go to Wisconsin.  Barack should be in Florida, and Kamala should be the one bouncing around taking shots.

[Hank Kingsley 20,635]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

Show me any legal theory or path forward and I'll hang up and listen. Otherwise stop spouting nonsense fear mongering. 

Wait, you think legality matters?