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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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15 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

The thing about the “basket of deplorables” comment from Hillary and Romney’s “47% of the people are freeloaders” comment is that they both explicitly single out all the supporters of the other political party to say they suck.   Biden saying 15% of people suck (a) way undercounts the total and (b) can’t actually be twisted into a smear of Republicans since he didn’t tie the number to people who aren’t voting for him, and it’s only a small fraction of Republicans even if we assume he was talking about Republicans exclusively.   It’s a nothing burger.

Seriously, what the hell is there even to argue about?   “Joe Biden said only a small percentage of Americans are bad people.  Asshole!  Btw, he was talking about you, you know, so you should be mad.  Wait, now don’t get mad at me for assuming you’re in that bottom 10th percentile that Biden was singling out.  No, no, you’re taking this all wrong.  I’m just saying when I heard Biden say 10% of people suck, I thought of you ... hello?  Hello?”

It really is. I mean what’s the incarceration rate in this country? How many people out there are drug dealers getting by without contributing to society in a positive way?
 

at least 10% of society is rotten scum. Not everyone can be good, honest people.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13,049

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2 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It really is. I mean what’s the incarceration rate in this country? How many people out there are drug dealers getting by without contributing to society in a positive way?
 

at least 10% of society is rotten scum. Not everyone can be good, honest people.

Violent crime I understand. But white collar corporate criminals should have to serve the same way the rest of the lower classes do. Millions and millions have been skimmed away from the labor that built this country that could have been put towards the percentage of people that ended up incarcerated that aren't part of the 'not contributing to society rotters.' Unless one considers creating profits for private prisons and bail scams to be contributing. Once in that cycle it begins to take on a life of its own.

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3,160

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At this point, I would not be surprised if black turnout surprises 2008. The conscience awakening of my people the last few weeks has been a sight to see. EVERYBODY I KNOW is all in on flushing the turd in November. I'm seeing so many athletes, entertainers promoting voting as well. I think Selena Gomez has the most followers on Instagram, she let Killer MIke take over her account yesterday to promote voting as well. 

 

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Hookah Horns

Hookah Horns 3,078

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9 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

At this point, I would not be surprised if black turnout surprises 2008. The conscience awakening of my people the last few weeks has been a sight to see. EVERYBODY I KNOW is all in on flushing the turd in November. I'm seeing so many athletes, entertainers promoting voting as well. I think Selena Gomez has the most followers on Instagram, she let Killer MIke take over her account yesterday to promote voting as well. 

 

This is what I like to hear. 

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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Social media is a great way for the stars to get involved. It doesn’t upset people as much as all of the celebrities who go to the DNC. 
 

I recall Clinton wanting to make the 2016 DNC a huge spectacle with as many stars and famous people as possible. It ended up hurting her.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23,356

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1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

I recall Clinton wanting to make the 2016 DNC a huge spectacle with as many stars and famous people as possible. It ended up hurting her.

You are aware her opponent was literally a television star, I hope.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668

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16 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

 

This stuff is great. I love that LeBron uses his platform the way he does. Trump is confident that he has done more for black people than any president in history, so I’m sure he can count on their vote. Be on the lookout for Trump really supporting Jalen and LeBron‘s efforts here.

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Bruh Man

Bruh Man 3,160

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More...

 

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Some of the notable names on board, along with the communities in which they have planned outreach, include Eric Bledsoe (Milwaukee), Draymond Green (Saginaw and East Lansing, Michigan), Trae Young and Alvin Kamara (Atlanta), Udonis Haslem (Miami), Sam Perkins and Stephen Jackson (Houston), Skylar Diggins-Smith (Phoenix) and comedian Kevin Hart (Philadelphia).

 

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Pig Bellmont

Pig Bellmont 8,691

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5 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

Joe needs to lay low for 5 months and let The Lincoln Project and RVAT do their job. Those are some nice spots. 

Disagree. They can be the attack dogs and he needs to be providing policy positions and solutions to be a contrast from Trump. He needs to define what a Biden presidency will look like before Trump steals all the oxygen out of the race

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15,486

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1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Disagree. They can be the attack dogs and he needs to be providing policy positions and solutions to be a contrast from Trump. He needs to define what a Biden presidency will look like before Trump steals all the oxygen out of the race

This isn't a policy election.  This is a referendum election.  Four more years of Trump, or the continuation and survival of the Republic.  That's the issue before us.

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Irieguy

Irieguy 1,059

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On 6/12/2020 at 12:07 PM, Bruh Man said:

Lil Baby, the most popular street rapper right now just dropped a song with a message encouraging people to vote. For those who don't listen to rap, I can't emphasis enough the influence Lil Baby has and how big this is. 

Ahh yes. Youth. I remember thinking Rock the Vote was going to be HUGE. It was nice being hopeful. And naive. 

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SubliminalHorn

SubliminalHorn 6,674

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On 6/12/2020 at 6:24 PM, Ghost of LL said:

This isn't a policy election.  This is a referendum election.  Four more years of Trump, or the continuation and survival of the Republic.  That's the issue before us.

The ONLY issue. We’ll figure everything else out after the squatter is removed. 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13,411

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On 6/12/2020 at 6:24 PM, Ghost of LL said:

This isn't a policy election.  This is a referendum election.  Four more years of Trump, or the continuation and survival of the Republic.  That's the issue before us.

Biden needs to continually point at Trump and repeat over and over that he (Biden) isn’t trump. Some people will require basic policy ideas but Biden should keep it to a minimum.  If anything Biden should stick to a course of listening and learning.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,614

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270towin has removed Michigan from the list of toss-ups (to leans blue), leaving the score 248-204, blue.  They only have 5 states as toss-ups: FL, PA, NC, AZ, and WI.  I still don’t see how Trump can win Pennsylvania; unfortunately that doesn’t get Biden to 270.  He still has to win one other state.  I think Wisconsin decides the election.  If Biden thinks Baldwin can deliver Wisconsin, he should choose her as VP.
 

I think it’s unlikely, but if Florida goes blue this quickly turns into a landslide.  As it stands there are only 83 delegates considered safely red.  
 

Trump still has a path to victory but it is getting very narrow.

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gmr548

gmr548 16,504

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5 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

270towin has removed Michigan from the list of toss-ups (to leans blue), leaving the score 248-204, blue.  They only have 5 states as toss-ups: FL, PA, NC, AZ, and WI.  I still don’t see how Trump can win Pennsylvania; unfortunately that doesn’t get Biden to 270.  He still has to win one other state.  I think Wisconsin decides the election.  If Biden thinks Baldwin can deliver Wisconsin, he should choose her as VP.
 

I think it’s unlikely, but if Florida goes blue this quickly turns into a landslide.  As it stands there are only 83 delegates considered safely red.  
 

Trump still has a path to victory but it is getting very narrow.

Trump's path to victory is the same as it was in 2016: everything goes perfectly and he squeaks it out. Analysis of this election essentially boils down to how likely that is to happen again.

I don't think PA is a foregone conclusion yet, as it was the only one of the rustbelt trio where Trump's victory wasn't directly attributable to decreased Democratic turnout. Hillary Clinton massively underperformed Obama in WI and MI. So much so that Trump won WI while actually getting fewer votes than Mitt Romney in 2012. Trump did improve on Romney's performance in MI by ~100k votes but would have lost by over 100k votes to Obama 2012, even if every single added Trump vote was an Obama-Trump flip. Bottom line is that if Democrats turn out in WI and MI they have the votes to win. I don't think we've seen any indication that Democratic turnout will be an issue this time. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but Democrats should like their chances in both states.

In PA on the other hand, Hillary Clinton did not underperform Obama. She actually did a little better with 20k additional votes. Trump just had a massive improvement on Romney's performance - over 300k votes. Turnout was not down in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metros like it was in Detroit and Milwaukee. If the narrative of the blue collar white voter coming out from the shadows for Trump is true anywhere, it's Pennsylvania. Now, maybe that's counteracted by Biden's appeal in PA, being from the area and all, but Trump is legitimately strong there. PA is a blue state long term because Philadelphia is driving almost all of its growth, but as of now it is a legitimate tossup, and I think probably the most likely tipping point state.

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32,323

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457

 

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By most conventional indicators, Donald Trump is in danger of becoming a one-term president. The economy is a wreck, the coronavirus persists, and his poll numbers have deteriorated.

But throughout the Republican Party’s vast organization in the states, the operational approach to Trump’s re-election campaign is hardening around a fundamentally different view.

 

 

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Interviews with more than 50 state, district and county Republican Party chairs depict a version of the electoral landscape that is no worse for Trump than six months ago — and possibly even slightly better. According to this view, the coronavirus is on its way out and the economy is coming back. Polls are unreliable, Joe Biden is too frail to last, and the media still doesn’t get it.

“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”

This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”

 

Quote

Five months before the election, many state and county Republican Party chairs predict a close election. Yet from the Eastern seaboard to the West Coast and the battlegrounds in between, there is an overriding belief that, just as Trump defied political gravity four years ago, there’s no reason he won’t do it again.

Andrew Hitt, the state party chairman in Wisconsin, said that during the height of public attention on the coronavirus, in late March and early April, internal polling suggested “some sagging off where we wanted to be.”

But now, he said, “Things are coming right back where we want them … That focus on the economy and on re-opening and bringing America back is resonating with people.”

 

Spoiler

In Ohio, Jane Timken, the state party chair, said she sees no evidence of support for Trump slipping. Jennifer Carnahan, the chairwoman of the Minnesota Republican Party, said the same. And Lawrence Tabas, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, went so far as to predict that Trump would not only carry his state, but beat Biden by more than 100,000 votes — more than twice the margin he mustered in 2016.

“Contrary to what may be portrayed in the media, there’s still a high level of support out there,” said Kyle Hupfer, chairman of the Indiana Republican Party. He described himself as “way more” optimistic than he was at this point in 2016.

The Republican Party apparatus that Trump heads in 2020 is considerably different than the one that looked at him warily in 2016. At the state level, many chairs who were considered insufficiently committed to the president were ousted and replaced with loyalists. But their assessments would be easier to dismiss as spin if the perception of Trump’s durability did not reach so far beyond GOP officialdom. 

When pollsters ask Americans who they think will win the election — not who they are voting for themselves — Trump performs relatively well. And if anything, Trump’s field officers appear more bullish than Trump and some of his advisers. Even the president, while lamenting what he views as unfair treatment by his adversaries, has privately expressed concerns about his poll numbers and publicly seemed to acknowledge he is down. 

“If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats,” he said on Twitter last week. “Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!”

Yet in the states, the Republican Party's rank-and-file are largely unconvinced that the president is precariously positioned in his reelection bid.

“The narrative from the Beltway is not accurate,” said Joe Bush, chairman of the Republican Party in Muskegon County, Mich., which Trump lost narrowly in 2016. “Here in the heartland, everybody is still very confident, more than ever.”

At the center of the disconnect between Trump loyalists’ assessment of the state of the race and the one based on public opinion polls is a distrust of polling itself. Republicans see an industry that maliciously oversamples Democrats or under-samples the white, non-college educated voters who are most likely to support Trump. They say it is hard to know who likely voters are this far from the election. And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters, under-counting his level of support.

Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the Republican Party in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, said he has friends who will tell pollsters “just exactly the opposite of what they feel.”

When he asked one of them why, his friend told him, “I don’t like some of their questions. It’s none of their business what I do.”

Recalling that polls four years ago failed to predict the outcome, Jack Brill, acting chairman of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla., said, “I used to be an avid poll watcher until 2016 … Guess what? I’m not watching polls.”

Instead, as they prepare for a post-lockdown summer of party picnics and parades, Republican Party organizers sense the beginnings of an economic recovery that, if sustained, is likely to power Trump to a second term. They also see a more immediate opening in the civil unrest surrounding the death of George Floyd.

“The further and further the Democrats tack left, and the further you get to where it’s the defunding the police,” said Scott Frostman, GOP chairman in Wisconsin’s Sauk County, which Obama won easily in 2012 but flipped to Trump four years later. “I think we have the opportunity as Republicans to talk to people a little bit more about some common sense things.”

Biden has rejected a national movement to defund police departments. But elections are often painted in broad strokes, and local party officials expect Trump — with his law and order rhetoric — will be the beneficiary of what they see as Democratic overreach.

“The other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding the police and nonsense like that,” said Michael Burke, chairman of the Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona, a Trump stronghold in 2016.” “Most of the American people are looking like that saying, ‘Really?’”

By most objective measures, Trump will need something to drag Biden down. He has fallen behind Biden in most swing state polls, and he lags the former vice president nationally by more than 8 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Gallup poll last week put Trump’s approval rating at just 39 percent, down 10 percentage points from a month ago. Democrats appear competitive not only in expected swing states, but in places such as Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won easily in 2016.

Little of that data is registering, however. State and local officials point to Trump’s financial and organizational advantages and see Biden as a weak opponent. They’re eager for Trump to eviscerate him in debates. “While the Democrats have been spending their time playing Paper Rock Scissors on who their nominee is going to be, we’ve been building an army,” said Terry Lathan, chair of the Alabama Republican Party. 

James Dickey, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, said it took Biden “days to figure out how to even successfully operate, or communicate out of a bunker” and that he “has clearly not been able to deal with any real challenging interview.”

Local officials brush off criticism of Trump by Republican fixtures such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said last week that Trump “lies all the time.” They dismiss press accounts of the race. Dennis Coxwell, the chairman of Georgia’s Warren County Republican Party, said: “It’s gotten to a point where I cannot believe anything that the news media says.”

Many admire Trump’s bluntest instincts — the same ones that have cost him among women and independent voters, according to polls. “The left called George Bush all kinds of names and just savaged him all the time … and Bush never said a word,” said Burke, who worked for Trump in the late 1980s and early 1990s overseeing his fleet of helicopters. “It was frustrating for those of us on the right. Now a guy comes along, you attack him, you’re getting it back double barrel. And everybody’s sitting around saying, ‘Yeah, that’s right, give it to ‘em.’”

And most of all, they put their confidence in an expectation that the economy will improve by fall.

Doyle Webb, chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party and general counsel to the Republican National Committee, said the only concern that he would have about Trump’s reelection prospects is “if the economy had another downturn.”

“But I don’t see that happening,” Webb said.

Instead, he predicted an improving job outlook and a return to “the old Clinton mantra: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’”

“I think that people will be happy,” Webb said, “and [Trump] will be re-elected.”

It’s a widely-held view. In Pennsylvania last week, Veral Salmon, the Republican Party chairman of the state’s bellwether Erie County, measured enthusiasm for Trump by the large number of requests he has received for Trump yard signs. In Maine, Melvin Williams, chairman of the Lincoln County Republican Committee, saw it in a population he said is “getting sick of this bullshit,” blaming coronavirus-related shutdowns on Democrats. And across the country, in heavily Democratic San Francisco, John Dennis, the chairman of the local GOP, was encouraged by the decreasing number of emails from the “Never Trump” crowd.

Not in his city, but nationally, Dennis said, “I’m pretty confident that [Trump] is going to pull it off.”

 

 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,614

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8 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Trump's path to victory is the same as it was in 2016: everything goes perfectly and he squeaks it out. Analysis of this election essentially boils down to how likely that is to happen again.

I don't think PA is a foregone conclusion yet, as it was the only one of the rustbelt trio where Trump's victory wasn't directly attributable to decreased Democratic turnout. Hillary Clinton massively underperformed Obama in WI and MI. So much so that Trump won WI while actually getting fewer votes than Mitt Romney in 2012. Trump did improve on Romney's performance in MI by ~100k votes but would have lost by over 100k votes to Obama 2012, even if every single added Trump vote was an Obama-Trump flip. Bottom line is that if Democrats turn out in WI and MI they have the votes to win. I don't think we've seen any indication that Democratic turnout will be an issue this time. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but Democrats should like their chances in both states.

In PA on the other hand, Hillary Clinton did not underperform Obama. She actually did a little better with 20k additional votes. Trump just had a massive improvement on Romney's performance - over 300k votes. Turnout was not down in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metros like it was in Detroit and Milwaukee. If the narrative of the blue collar white voter coming out from the shadows for Trump is true anywhere, it's Pennsylvania. Now, maybe that's counteracted by Biden's appeal in PA, being from the area and all, but Trump is legitimately strong there. PA is a blue state long term because Philadelphia is driving almost all of its growth, but as of now it is a legitimate tossup, and I think probably the most likely tipping point state.

Good info.  I just assume Philly would determine the state this cycle but that may be assuming too much.  If Trump wins PA then I think this election is going to be extremely close.

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6,554

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2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Trump is not winning PA.  There has been a YUGE increase in voter registrations there, most of which are Democrats.

It will be tough for all of them to vote when they have like 5 total places to vote in all of Philly and the machines magically don’t work at 2 of the 5.

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406W30th

406W30th 1,111

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17 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

It will be tough for all of them to vote when they have like 5 total places to vote in all of Philly and the machines magically don’t work at 2 of the 5.

And then people call the cops on Black people who are waiting in line to vote.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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9 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Trump's path to victory is the same as it was in 2016: everything goes perfectly and he squeaks it out. Analysis of this election essentially boils down to how likely that is to happen again.

I don't think PA is a foregone conclusion yet, as it was the only one of the rustbelt trio where Trump's victory wasn't directly attributable to decreased Democratic turnout. Hillary Clinton massively underperformed Obama in WI and MI. So much so that Trump won WI while actually getting fewer votes than Mitt Romney in 2012. Trump did improve on Romney's performance in MI by ~100k votes but would have lost by over 100k votes to Obama 2012, even if every single added Trump vote was an Obama-Trump flip. Bottom line is that if Democrats turn out in WI and MI they have the votes to win. I don't think we've seen any indication that Democratic turnout will be an issue this time. Obviously nothing is guaranteed, but Democrats should like their chances in both states.

In PA on the other hand, Hillary Clinton did not underperform Obama. She actually did a little better with 20k additional votes. Trump just had a massive improvement on Romney's performance - over 300k votes. Turnout was not down in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metros like it was in Detroit and Milwaukee. If the narrative of the blue collar white voter coming out from the shadows for Trump is true anywhere, it's Pennsylvania. Now, maybe that's counteracted by Biden's appeal in PA, being from the area and all, but Trump is legitimately strong there. PA is a blue state long term because Philadelphia is driving almost all of its growth, but as of now it is a legitimate tossup, and I think probably the most likely tipping point state.

Biden taking Arizona should make Pennsylvania irrelevant.

 

mcsally is already way underwater there and Kelly will probably pull Biden over the line with him.

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gmr548

gmr548 16,504

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Biden taking Arizona should make Pennsylvania irrelevant.
 
mcsally is already way underwater there and Kelly will probably pull Biden over the line with him.
Not really given the EV gap between the two. AZ and MI would get Biden to 259, add WI and it's 269 (lol nightmare fuel). So he'd still need another state, but even a smaller NC could get the job done.

I could actually see AZ-MI-NC being the winning trio for Biden. Though I'm with you all in that PA is probably a Biden lean. Just not a layup. I'm hesitant to count on WI because of the legacy of GOP cheating there, despite the fact that I tink Democrats have an advantage there. I do at least expect a legitimate election in PA.
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45,492

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2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C., one of several rural counties in that swing state that shifted from supporting Barack Obama in 2012 to Trump in 2016. “We’re calling him ‘Teflon Trump.’ Nothing’s going to stick, because if anything, it’s getting more exciting than it was in 2016.”

This year, Stephens said, “We’re thinking landslide.”

If this bizarro world prediction comes true, I'm off of this planet.  Objective truth and logic will officially be dead.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2,259

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5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Not really given the EV gap between the two. AZ and MI would get Biden to 259, add WI and it's 269 (lol nightmare fuel). So he'd still need another state, but even a smaller NC could get the job done.

I could actually see AZ-MI-NC being the winning trio for Biden. Though I'm with you all in that PA is probably a Biden lean. Just not a layup. I'm hesitant to count on WI because of the legacy of GOP cheating there, despite the fact that I tink Democrats have an advantage there. I do at least expect a legitimate election in PA.

Some Democrats think that district in Nebraska worth 1 EV is winnable this year.

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