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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bevo Num1

Bevo Num1 1,004

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Posted




This is how dumb Team Trump is.

She tweeted this out as though it somehow makes Trump look good and Biden look bad.




Yes, you empty headed cunt, obeying rules and being able to descend an incline without a ramp is obviously just terribly as opposed to choppering into an unmasked, packed crowd during a pandemic.

Woo hoo! Let’s really stir that virus laden air around!


Dude is an idiot. They should've pushed him out of the helicopter.
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9,898

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8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I disagree with Arizona being a toss up. Trump had a huge lead over Clinton in Maricopa in 2016, now it looks like Biden will win the county / state.


This, McSally was leading Sinema going into Election Day in 2018 and lost.  Desert Florida is the opposite of Florida: Dems tend to over perform the polling.  Also: lots of LDS is AZ.  Mormons ain’t down with the orange clown. 

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Tuco

Tuco 5,076

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8 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

lol Trump left his stans stranded with no way home.
 

I really wish I had more time to dig into this one this morning.  

The asshole was about two hours late to an outside event, in ~30 deg weather.  And then when it was over, it took hours for Trumpkins to get back to their cars.  The event was at TAC, which is a little airport connected to the the main Eppley airfield, but completely around the back of the airfield, around 3.5 mile walk.  It's basically a county road that connects TAC to the rest of the Eppley parking.  30 medical contacts for TAC security.  7 transfers to the hospital.  1 complete clusterfuck. 

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13,049

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5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I really wish I had more time to dig into this one this morning.  

The asshole was about two hours late to an outside event, in ~30 deg weather.  And then when it was over, it took hours for Trumpkins to get back to their cars.  The event was at TAC, which is a little airport connected to the the main Eppley airfield, but completely around the back of the airfield, around 3.5 mile walk.  It's basically a county road that connects TAC to the rest of the Eppley parking.  30 medical contacts for TAC security.  7 transfers to the hospital.  1 complete clusterfuck. 

He must hate the cold, because he was apparently there for the shortest speech he's given this week.

As best i could tell, it appeared that the campaign did not adequately reserve parking lots and numbers of buses for shuttling. Eventually, they had to limit the number of attendees but when the event was concluded, many able bodied folks scrambled aboard the warm buses and were shuttled back to their cars, but it takes awhile in traffic to go back and forth.

Perhaps they should have allowed them to sacrifice themselves for the cause. Apparently police were picking up some and driving them back to the lots, but no mention of masks.

 

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totallynotabuttpirate

totallynotabuttpirate 5,342

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7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck happened in this thread last night? Everyone is freaking out over... no news that I can tell? Is it the slight Republican lead in turnout percentage in Miami? Y'all realize that isn't total votes, right? 

Highest it's ever been. Sounds like freakout time to me. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,437

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7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What the fuck happened in this thread last night? Everyone is freaking out over... no news that I can tell? Is it the slight Republican lead in turnout percentage in Miami? Y'all realize that isn't total votes, right? 

And where is the Pennsylvania negativity coming from? Biden keeps polling over 50%. 

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DigglerontheHoof

DigglerontheHoof 21,052

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1 minute ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

He must hate the cold, because he was apparently there for the shortest speech he's given this week.

As best i could tell, it appeared that the campaign did not adequately reserve parking lots and numbers of buses for shuttling. Eventually, they had to limit the number of attendees but when the event was concluded, many able bodied folks scrambled aboard the warm buses and were shuttled back to their cars, but it takes awhile in traffic to go back and forth.

Perhaps they should have allowed them to sacrifice themselves for the cause. Apparently police were picking up some and driving them back to the lots, but no mention of masks.

 

You'd think he'd be impervious to the cold w/ all that blubber and hot air. 

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Hiphopopotamos

Hiphopopotamos 20,865

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Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I agree with @longhornmatt that G Elliot is a little too smug in his positions.  
 

image.gif.1509b9afe01b17c1d1408fd178f00381.gif

 

 

Most definitely.  It seems as though his biggest issue with other data guys (Nate Cohn and 538 specifically) is that they are all inserting random noise to account for 'uncertainty'.  He thinks Nate is embarrassed about his 2016 prediction so he is throttling back Biden's chances so that he doesn't repeat 2016.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47,846

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1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:


This, McSally was leading Sinema going into Election Day in 2018 and lost.  Desert Florida is the opposite of Florida: Dems tend to over perform the polling.  Also: lots of LDS is AZ.  Mormons ain’t down with the orange clown. 

The state of Utah seems to disagree with you, overwhelmingly and vehemently. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9,898

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The state of Utah seems to disagree with you, overwhelmingly and vehemently. 

That’s why 21% of them voted for Evan McMullin? I’m not saying they will vote for Biden (they are solidly conservative) but it’s what you would classify as an unmotivated demographic.  Also, Mesa, AZ is considered swing-y.  That doesn’t happen without Democrats pulling LDS votes.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47,846

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47 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

You'd think he'd be impervious to the cold w/ all that blubber and hot air. 

In all fairness, Trump was perfectly fine. It was his supporters that were completely fucked. I wonder if a reduced immune system due to extreme cold for an extended period plus covid exposure can accelerate onset? 

43 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Also, this. Do they have to pay the BBC for the Teletubby video they manipulated? I'm never good with copyright issues .

 

I bet I've got this one figured out. They'll try to blast that add all over FB, and they'll attempt to force FB to let it happen by saying that because the switchover doesn't happen until 2021, technically yes that ad is 100% correct and Donald Trump is still your president on November 4th. 

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32,317

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https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-to-make-of-that-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/

 

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Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.

 

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And this is not an easy poll to disregard. ABC News/Washington Post adheres to what we consider the gold-standard methodology (meaning they use live phone interviewers, call cell phones as well as landlines and participate in the American Association for Public Opinion Research’s Transparency Initiative or the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research archive) and earns an A+ grade in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings database.1 The poll single-handedly increased Biden’s lead in our polling average of Wisconsin from 7.1 points to 9.0 points, and it is currently the most influential poll in our forecast of Wisconsin, where Biden’s chances of winning the state have reached a new high as a result — 93 in 100.

 

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That said, ABC News/Washington Post is definitely an outlier; no other poll has shown Biden with that big of a lead in Wisconsin since June. (And then it was a Hodas & Associates poll sponsored by the conservative Restoration PAC that put Biden 17 points ahead.)

On the other hand, this poll doesn’t exactly exist in a vacuum. Biden has also gotten a lot of very strong polls from some of the states that border Wisconsin. To wit:

 

Spoiler

RABA Research was out with a poll yesterday showing Biden at 50 percent and Trump at 46 percent in Iowa. Last week, the A+ pollsters Monmouth University and Siena College/The New York Times Upshot found similar margins. Iowa, remember, is a fairly red state, having been carried by Trump by 9 points in 2016. And for the first time, our forecast now gives Biden a better chance than Trump of winning the state, although it’s still basically a coin flip (Biden’s odds are 51 in 100).

Yesterday, Gravis Marketing released a survey of Minnesota in which Biden led Trump by 14 points. Biden’s chances of winning Minnesota have now reached an all-time high of 94 in 100.

On Sunday, we also got a Gravis poll of Michigan that gave Biden a 13-point lead. That’s on top of last week’s Fox News poll of Michigan showing Biden 12 points ahead. And this morning, ABC News/Washington Post also released a Michigan poll giving Biden a smaller 7-point lead. Overall, our forecast gives Biden a 94 in 100 chance of winning the Wolverine State.

What might be going on here? Well, Biden has led in some of these states for a while, but it’s also possible that Trump could be losing support in the Midwest due to the recent spike in COVID-19 cases there. Much of Wisconsin is currently a hot spot; on Tuesday, the state reported more new cases (5,262) and deaths (64) than any other day of the pandemic. The same day, Iowa and Minnesota announced a record number of hospitalizations, and cases are on the rise in Michigan as well.

Nationally, the coronavirus is a losing issue for Trump — 58 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the pandemic, on average, compared with just 40 percent who approve — and Wisconsin is no different. According to ABC News/Washington Post, Trump’s net disapproval rating on the coronavirus in Wisconsin is -20 percentage points — double what it was in mid-September. And 63 percent of registered voters there say they are worried about catching COVID-19. What’s more, Biden leads by a whopping 75 percent to 22 percent among members of this bloc who say they are likely to vote.

As recently as Saturday, Trump said at a rally in the Milwaukee suburbs that the pandemic was winding down. But that’s clearly not the case in Wisconsin, or in these other Midwestern states that Trump probably needs in order to win reelection. (There’s a 20 percent chance that one of Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota will provide the decisive electoral vote, and Trump has a less than 1 in 100 chance of winning if he fails to carry Iowa.) The surge of illness in the region is obviously bad news first and foremost for its impact on people’s lives. But for an incumbent president widely seen as having failed on the issue of the pandemic and facing reelection in less than one week, it’s also terrible timing politically.

 

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heso

heso 2,748

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Shit like this is what has me concerned, not pessimistic, just concerned about PA:

A Pennsylvania election official told CNN that counties are "strongly encouraged" to begin their work on the absentee ballots at 7 a.m. But even if they don't, the official said the public would still have a good idea of what mail-in ballots are still outstanding at the time polls close and the party affiliation of those ballots. Counties can begin reporting the results at 8 p.m. after the polls close.

Each county has a different plan for how to process mail-in ballots, which are expected to hit record numbers as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

That includes Erie County, which swung toward Trump in 2016 and plans to begin counting in-person votes when the polls close at 8 p.m., followed by tabulating absentee ballots around 11 p.m., according to Carl Anderson III, the chair of the Erie Board of Elections. Erie is planning to stop counting ballots around 2 a.m. on November 4 and restart later that morning. 

Anderson said there's a concern if the mail-in ballots are reported first, the results "out of the gate could look pretty skewed," because those votes were expected to be heavily Democratic, based on ballots requested, and the county was trying to mitigate that effect.

Republican-run Cumberland County, which is outside Harrisburg, plans to report results from the polls only beginning at 8 p.m., and will not begin counting mail-in ballots until the following morning, according to Samantha Krepps, a spokeswoman for the county. 

"On Election Day we will report the poll numbers, but we have three days to start the canvassing of the mail-in ballot. So, we took the opportunity to focus our attention on the election at the polls and then we will switch gears the next day," Krepps told CNN. "It's just a matter of getting the job done and we are focusing our attention on the polls because they are the most important thing on Election Day."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/28/politics/early-voting-ballot-count-pennsylvania-2020/index.html

Pa is setting up to turn into a Supreme Court battle over mail in ballots. Counties waiting until the day after the election to even begin counting mail in ballots is just screaming for fuckery. 

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17,437

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The Utah Mormons are a bit racist 

I mean, there are all of 2 black people in Utah. 

Also, it is my experience that Utah Mormons generally kind, educated, and overall wonderful people to be around (unless you want to drink). 

6 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I don't know - some guy I've never heard of got 20% of the vote in 2016.

image.png.fc91660cd1264b2a979ba2574f8a0466.png

Yup. Amazingly, Hillary would have been better off just not running in Utah and getting her name off the ticket. McMullin would have won the state. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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