2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[DigglerontheHoof 21551]

Of all the Imaginary Friend Clubs, I think Mormons are the least hypocritical.  I've genuinely liked and respected every Mormon I've known or done business with.  I can't even come close to saying that about "mainstream"  Christians. 

[BrickHorn 18447]

9 minutes ago, Bojack said:

Only polling at 2% for now, but good to see that Not Sure is getting his name out there.  I expect he'll be the person that turns the tide back towards sanity in a few years.  

I thought his head would be bigger.

[Red Five 41738]

Played around on 270towin a bit, and gave Biden Michigan, Wisc, and Arizona. I then gave Trump Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. In this unlikely, hell on earth scenario.... I got Biden 270, Trump 268. It would come down to the weird splits in Neb and Maine. 

 

[TheStoicPaisano 9953]

13 minutes ago, Bojack said:

Only polling at 2% for now, but good to see that Not Sure is getting his name out there.  I expect he'll be the person that turns the tide back towards sanity in a few years.  

At the least, he’ll make our shit less emotional.

Edited October 28, 2020 by TheStoicPaisano

[SydneyCarton 49501]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Played around on 270towin a bit, and gave Biden Michigan, Wisc, and Arizona. I then gave Trump Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. In this unlikely, hell on earth scenario.... I got Biden 270, Trump 268. It would come down to the weird splits in Neb and Maine. 

 

I mean, in that nightmare scenario what it really comes down to is the courts, so...

[Pancho 46309]

 

[Neonmoon 38130]

56 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

So PA and WI are the only battleground states that will be delayed?

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I mean, there is all of 2 black people in Utah. 

Also, it is my experience that Utah Mormons generally kind, educated, and overall wonderful people to be around (unless you want to drink). 

Yup. Amazingly, Hillary would have been better off just not running in Utah and getting her name off the ticket. McMullin would have won the state. 

This is true for short interactions. I worked for a software company that was HQd in Sandy, Ut (SLC burbs) and everyone was super nice when I had to go to HQ. Longer interactions, like our annual 2 week kickoff and training, and they get very clannish. By the 3rd day, they're all sitting together and pretty much ignoring anyone that wasn't LDS. Also, the don't drink thing goes away if they are more than 2 zip codes away from home and not traveling with any other Mormons. (They're a bit like Baptists in that regard)

[The Dog 44861]

 

[The Dog 44861]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Counterpoint:

 

[Ghost of LL 15698]

 

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Counterpoint:

 

From that same thread:

 

[Dahobbs 18321]

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Eh, that's click bait. That count doesn't include mail-in ballots from yesterday. Almost all Democrat votes are coming in over the mail and the Democrats have a massive, massive advantage there. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

So, which poll is dumber- WaPost with Biden up 17 in Wisconsin or anything published by Trafalgar?  
I can’t conceive of a Biden 17 up in Wisconsin, but I suppose I’m willing to consider it as slightly possible. More likely than Trump having a 54 percent approval rating (looking at you Rasmussen) or 56 percent better off now than 4 years ago (looking at you Gallup). 

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

Talking to my engineer who lives in Bucks County, he says sign count seems to favor Biden, and almost every Trump or other Republican candidate sign he sees is vandalized. 

[The Dog 44861]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So, which poll is dumber- WaPost with Biden up 17 in Wisconsin or anything published by Trafalgar?  

Anything from Trafalgar.

The WaPost poll is clearly an outlier but the trend has been Biden increasing his lead. He's not up 17 but he's probably going to win by 10+ thanks to the COVID case counts increasing when Trump is saying the opposite. 

[Tuco 5093]

42 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

The ones who say it isn't Trump's fault that the rally attendees were stranded will be the first to scream "fire Scott Frost" when Husker football goes 1-7 this year. Days of national championships are becoming a distant memory.

They are only a distant memory if you are old enough.  For most anyone under thirty, they don't remember.  

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

Just now, The Dog said:

Anything from Trafalgar.

The WaPost poll is clearly an outlier but the trend has been Biden increasing his lead. He's not up 17 but he's probably going to win by 10+ thanks to the COVID case counts increasing when Trump is saying the opposite. 

10 plus seems like a big ask up there, but to Wisconsin’s credit they- like Texas- seem to not like Trump. Out of the states that voted for him in 2016 I mean. 

[SydneyCarton 49501]

18 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

So, this brings up an interesting point (which I admittedly keep coming back to), which is popular vote in the whole concept of "mandate." Maybe the electoral is close. Maybe it's not. But even if it is, the amount by which Biden wins the popular vote will be important in determining whether the democrats would have a Mandate to implement their changes and fast. I think Biden needs to have a popular vote victory of at least 7 million to feel good about that. Outside of what this virus could do to the electoral college, it could also decreasef turnout in comfortably red states like Tenn, and perhaps Miss, Alabama, WVA, even areas of Missouri and Arky. Now, yes, there's swing and blue states getting some drag too, but could we see suppressed total voting in red states where they know there's no chance to flip blue? That could be half a million votes right there, possibly 750k. 

Of course, that would require many of the citizens of those states to understand the concept of the electoral college to begin with, so maybe this hypothesis is a bit of an overreach. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

3 minutes ago, Tuco said:

They are only a distant memory if you are old enough.  For most anyone under thirty, they don't remember.  

 VY is starting to be a distant memory around here and that happened in 2005. Anyone under 20 doesn’t remember it. Getting old sucks sometimes (at least when your program is in the decline). 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

I know yard signs don't mean jack shit, but I'm still fascinated by the lack of Trump signs in my area of Houston. Lots of people with Sarah Davis/Wesley Hunt signs, but they don't bother adding a Trump sign. Maybe it means nothing. But what if some of them leave the top line blank or vote Biden? 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

So, this brings up an interesting point, which is popular vote in the whole concept of "mandate." Maybe the electoral is close. Maybe it's not. But even if it is, the amount by which Biden wins the popular vote will be important in determining whether the democrats would have a Mandate to implement their changes and fast. I think Biden needs to have a popular vote victory of at least 7 million to feel good about that. Outside of what this virus could do to the electoral college, it could also decrease turnout in comfortably red states like Tenn, and perhaps Miss, Alabama, WVA, even areas of Missouri and Arky. Now, yes, there's swing and blue states getting some drag too, but could we see suppressed total voting in red states where they know there's know chance to flip blue? That could be half a million votes right there, possibly 750k. 

Of course, that would require many of the citizens of those states to understand the concept of the electoral college to begin with, so maybe this hypothesis is a bit of an overreach. 

mandate is for the weak.

if you can get 51%, fuck the 49%.  2016-2020 out front should have told you.

[Tuco 5093]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

So, this brings up an interesting point, which is popular vote in the whole concept of "mandate."

Yep.  And for any progressive who is cranky about pulling the lever for Biden, they should realize that if there is no mandate, there will be little backbone to implement even the moderate changes Biden is pushing. 

[4th&Five 42005]

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

Nice. 

 

[SydneyCarton 49501]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

mandate is for the weak.

if you can get 51%, fuck the 49%.  2016-2020 out front should have told you.

Yeah, that's how you and I view it. But that's clearly not how many democratic folks in power view it, including Joe Biden. He isn't going to ram shit home. Fuck, many here have a legitimate fear he's going to spend 2 years pussy-footing around like Obama did and waste time/opportunity because he wants to "unite."

[Dahobbs 18321]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Nice. 

 

He is awesome. But I'm not sure he is a guy that will connect with Florida. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Tuco 5093]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

mandate is for the weak.

if you can get 51%, fuck the 49%.  2016-2020 out front should have told you.

The Dems don't command the party loyalty that the Republicans do.  Manchin isn't going to vote a certain way just because Joe tells him to.  Getting to 50+VP in the Senate would be a huge advantage for controlling the agenda, but actually passing that agenda is going to be a bitch without being able to twist some arms, or a couple of extra seats. 

[SimonBolivar 11064]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

He is awesome. But I'm not sure he is a guy that will connect with Florida though. 

Gotta reach them older coastal gays. The young Orlando gays already voted for Biden.

[Pancho 46309]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I know yard signs don't mean jack shit, but I'm still fascinated by the lack of Trump signs in my area of Houston. Lots of people with Sarah Davis/Wesley Hunt signs, but they don't bother adding a Trump sign. Maybe it means nothing. But what if some of them leave the top line blank or vote Biden? 

 

There are no Trump signs in my subdivision in Nawfeast Houston near Summerwood. Even when I go up to Atascocita (1960/West Lake Houston) area, I haven't seen jack shit.  Every so often, I will see a trump hat at HEB or trump facemask/hat at the gym, but it's not a ton of them--just 1. 

I did notice there are two houses I've saw flying trump flags during the spring/summer.  Now, those houses have removed the trump flags and just replaced them with American flags. 

This has been Pancho's news update.  Back to you Hank. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

11 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Talking to my engineer who lives in Bucks County, he says sign count seems to favor Biden, and almost every Trump or other Republican candidate sign he sees is vandalized. 

The NYT's editorial this morning about the Philly suburbs is ridiculous.  If I drive 35 mins north of DC to Pasadena, MD, a Baltimore suburb/exurb, you'd think Trump was going to win MD by 20 points.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Let me do a little public service and slay some of this PTSD. My brother texted me last night freaking out so I ran a few numbers.

Here are current swing state results if the undecideds break exactly how they did in 2016, meaning we're assuming the exact same underestimation of rural whites in the Rust Belt, etc. "Repeat of the 2016 disaster":

 

Biden with 289 EVs

 

- Let's take that a step further and go with an "absolute nuclear worst case scenario" where Trump wins 70% of the remaining undecideds and Biden wins 0%. This is a ridiculous hypothetical that will never happen (it was 32% on average in swing states for Trump last time), but just testing the limits of Biden's leads in swing states. Biden wins with 278 EVs

- If Biden's individual state results match his polling vs. HIllary's results vs. her polling: 289 EVs

Now let's get into more realistic scenarios where the pollsters have actually changed their models to properly account for rural whites and non-college educated folks.

- If pollsters have gotten 30% more accurate than 2016: 304 EVs

- If Biden wins 65% of the undecideds, which is more in line with challenger vs. unpopular incumbent: 387 EVs

Keep in mind that ALL of the above scenarios have Biden losing Florida, because the recent R-lean polls pushed the RCP average in Trump's favor. I'm not sure that's accurate. With Florida in play those numbers get even better.

 

There's been a lot of concern about the whole "Trump stops Wisconsin and Pennsylvania counting at midnight before early votes are counted". Let's take a  look at that, I picked Wisconsin because it was a bit of a difficult analysis that I only wanted to do once and they had better data.

In Wisconsin, based on where early votes are happening (and some other number crunching), I expect Biden to lead Trump in early voting about 779k to 718k. Given that, election day  voters only are still likely to break for Biden, I've got election day going 50.2% Biden, 49.0% Trump. Not only that, but half or more of the early votes will be reported by the time election day results start coming in, because they start counting at 7am that day. I'm almost certain that Trump will never hold a lead in Wisconsin. The awesome thing about this scenario is that it puts Trump in a brutal spot. If he gets the courts to stop the counting, he'll surely lose WI because he'll be behind. And if he lets WI keep counting, then he blows up his own argument to stop counting in other states (PA, OH). He ends up in a no-win situation that royally fucks his "stop the vote" plan. 

Also, on a non-math nerd practical, basis, it's probably not going to matter:

Dane County Clerk Scott McDonell is just one of many local officials trying to adjust to the situation.

“We have added a bunch of machines to help with processing so, while I think it will be a late night, I think we'll see the vast majority of the results at midnight, 1 a.m.,” McDonell said."

Votes are probably all going to be in that night, or plenty enough to give Biden a comfortable win. I suspect PA will be the same way, and we won't have that problem in Michigan because they started counting votes yesterday.

We're gonna be alright everyone. Remain calm.

Edited October 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[TexEx15 17948]

Lifetime Longhorn says...

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[The Dog 44861]

Away we go:

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

fuckin a.  now we're cooking.

[Huckleberry 34648]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

@Helobious

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

24 minutes ago, Tuco said:

They are only a distant memory if you are old enough.  For most anyone under thirty, they don't remember.  

True, but boy that win against Miami was a long time coming.

 

 

I'm under the sway of the seducing lights and music of the promising Biden outlook this morning, we'll see how long it lasts.

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

LMAO 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

3 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

True, but boy that win against Miami was a long time coming.

 

 

I'm under the sway of the seducing lights and music of the promising Biden outlook this morning, we'll see how long it lasts.

Judging by yesterday's thread - you're good until the horn sounds at the end of the day shift.  Once those second shift guys get in here - shit starts to get dark.

[Pancho 46309]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Away we go:

 

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

Trump World thinks their voters are losers and suckers, and literally do not give one flying fuck about any of them. 

 

[Bateshorn 9991]

ARRRRGH, so bad at intertrons.  I'll try again

Edited October 28, 2020 by Bateshorn

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

what am i looking at there, other than the generic scrolling skyline in an 8 bit nintendo game

[SydneyCarton 49501]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Trump World thinks their voters are losers and suckers, and literally do not give one flying fuck about any of them. 

 

He doesn't get a lot of run in the Most Punchable Faces list, and he certainly doesn't qualify in my personal kill list, but I have to say I've sen Hogan Gidley (what a perfect prep school piece of shit name), and he might be one of the smarmiest, smug, intellectually dishonest fucking evil motherfuckers out there. Not smart, just amoral. If heaven is an endless playground of us living out our fantasies forever, I would regularly summon Gidley's soul from hell so I could just beat the fuck out of him before sending him back down to the lake of fire. 

[RomaVicta 30586]

2 hours ago, Tuco said:

I really wish I had more time to dig into this one this morning.  

The asshole was about two hours late to an outside event, in ~30 deg weather.  And then when it was over, it took hours for Trumpkins to get back to their cars.  The event was at TAC, which is a little airport connected to the the main Eppley airfield, but completely around the back of the airfield, around 3.5 mile walk.  It's basically a county road that connects TAC to the rest of the Eppley parking.  30 medical contacts for TAC security.  7 transfers to the hospital.  1 complete clusterfuck. 

I bet the rotor wash from Marine One warmed everyone up, maybe a sub zero windchill? The virus lives best in cold air without sunlight.

This, my friends, is a man of the people!

 

[Bateshorn 9991]

It's the same with the generic congressional ballot-it's an excellent indicator of where the zeitgeist of the non obsessed voter is.  In 2016, it clearly showed the October tigthening in the race as undecideds broke towards Trump and the GOP.  This year?  It shows a bit of a come home effect for the GOP, but also, independents seem to be breaking towards the Democrats (Top is 2020 from the screen shot of RCP generic voter, bottom is 2016) :

 

[GRHorn 105]

This is not a Trump supporter btw. 

 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14806]

17 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Away we go:

 

[Bateshorn 9991]

 @GRHornWell,  no shit Sherlock, that's why we all had a fucking meltdown last night when we were drinking.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Bateshorn