2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Hank Kingsley 20678]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

This is not a Trump supporter btw. 

 

 

 

His argument is that Biden isn't holding big rallies or playing video games on Twitch for 500k followers. Pure emotional/feelings based dumbassery by a left-wing guy mad that Biden is the nominee and not a progressive. 

The  numbers aren't there for Trump. At this point in 2016, the midwest was tightening and the district-level polls were showing trouble for Hillary. The exact opposite is happening this time around. Trump is fucked. It's just a matter of how long it takes for him to concede at this point.

[GRHorn 105]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

 @GRHornWell,  no shit Sherlock, that's why we all had a fucking meltdown last night when we were drinking.

Oh. I don’t frequent this thread. Harris/Biden are gonna win. They’re not going to have some big breakthrough in Texas etc but it should be comfortable W unless the polls are wrong. Take back Midwest. Throw in AZ. 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, GRHorn said:

Take back Midwest. Throw in AZ. 

Yup.

Stretch goals of FL/GA/NC but the midwest+AZ is Biden's blue fortress and Trump ain't breaking it. 

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

This is not a Trump supporter btw. 

 

 

An article that can be summed up with 4 letters:  FOMO.  Ben says that independents/undecideds that are watching big strong powerful MAGA rallies are going to break towards Trump because they don't want to miss out on the big excite.

[GRHorn 105]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

His argument is that Biden isn't holding big rallies or playing video games on Twitch for 500k followers. Pure emotional/feelings based dumbassery by a left-wing guy mad that Biden is the nominee and not a progressive. 

The  numbers aren't there for Trump. At this point in 2016, the midwest was tightening and the district-level polls were showing trouble for Hillary. The exact opposite is happening this time around. Trump is fucked. It's just a matter of how long it takes for him to concede at this point.

He’s not a Bernie bro. I don’t know him obviously.  I think it was  @Hank Kingsley that does, but he seems like a genuinely good dude.  He’s fed up with corruption seems to be his main stance. 

Edited October 28, 2020 by GRHorn

[Hank Kingsley 20678]

Just now, GRHorn said:

He’s not a Bernie bro. I don’t know him obviously.  I think it was  @Hank Kingsley that does, but he seems like a genuinely good dude.  He’s fed up with corruption seems to be his main stance. 

I've met Ben, and he's an extremely intelligent man. 

But I think he's way off the mark with that article.

 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26277]

11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

He doesn't get a lot of run in the Most Punchable Faces list, and he certainly doesn't qualify in my personal kill list, but I have to say I've sen Hogan Gidley (what a perfect prep school piece of shit name), and he might be one of the smarmiest, smug, intellectually dishonest fucking evil motherfuckers out there. Not smart, just amoral. If heaven is an endless playground of us living out our fantasies forever, I would regularly summon Gidley's soul from hell so I could just beat the fuck out of him before sending him back down to the lake of fire. 

Maybe so, but with a name like 'Hogan Gidley' he should be lining up under center for UGA on Saturdays. That's an SEC ready name if I've ever heard one. 

[SydneyCarton 47847]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Maybe so, but with a name like 'Hogan Gidley' he should be lining up under center for UGA on Saturdays. That's an SEC ready name if I've ever heard one. 

Well, as if the haircut didn't give it the fuck away, you'll be shocked to learn he went to college at Ole Miss. 

[Bevo14 8274]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Maybe so, but with a name like 'Hogan Gidley' he should be lining up under center for UGA on Saturdays. That's an SEC ready name if I've ever heard one. 

Wouldn't be necessarily inconsistent with what he said.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Bevo14

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

25 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LMAO 

 

It's caused a problem for folks that need to be on the internet for their game/career (no clicks,  no $$) but if they don't scrub out their history online, then the laundry is aired for all to see. It happens to a lot of people (with context quite innocently) but most are not so blatantly compromised.

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

 @GRHornWell,  no shit Sherlock, that's why we all had a fucking meltdown last night when we were drinking.

These last few days are going to drain the Whiggins' family liquor cabinet I believe.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins

[jimmyjazz 45546]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

 @GRHornWell,  no shit Sherlock, that's why we all had a fucking meltdown last night when we were drinking.

Is that writer making a point?  If so, what is it?  He has a funny feeling?

[Wulaw Horn 18972]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yup.

Stretch goals of FL/GA/NC but the midwest+AZ is Biden's blue fortress and Trump ain't breaking it. 

I don’t think Florida or NC are stretch goals. They pretty consistently go Dem when the Dem wins (Clinton times 1 Obama times 2 in Florida- I know Clinton got Carolina at least once and Obama got NC at least once). 
GA is a stretch goal. Last time was what- Clinton in 92?  

[Bateshorn 9898]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

Is that writer making a point?  If so, what is it?  He has a funny feeling?

Yeah.  But every time I get two Sierra Nevada's under my belt and then move to wine, I get a funny feeling too.  Doesn't mean it's correct.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20342]

Check out this pro-Biden ad Jeff Daniels did. It makes me verklempt and I've only been to Michigan twice in my whole life.
 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

10 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

He’s not a Bernie bro. I don’t know him obviously.  I think it was  @Hank Kingsley that does, but he seems like a genuinely good dude.  He’s fed up with corruption seems to be his main stance. 

Whatever he is he's mad and goofy and writing purely emotion-driven articles. 

[formermav43 4599]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Whatever he is he's mad and goofy and writing purely emotion-driven articles. 

Sounds like he posts in this thread.

[Pato del Muerto 52338]

Just now, formermav43 said:

Sounds like he posts in this thread.

Like anyone could even know that 

['stache 21761]

Post-birth abortion, lol. They're literally using a South Park joke as a serious political strategy.

[Beau Vine 53984]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Outside of what this virus could do to the electoral college, it could also decreasef turnout in comfortably red states like Tenn, and perhaps Miss, Alabama, WVA, even areas of Missouri and Arky. Now, yes, there's swing and blue states getting some drag too, but could we see suppressed total voting in red states where they know there's no chance to flip blue? That could be half a million votes right there, possibly 750k. 

It's like you actually think a Trumper would avoid going to the polls because they're sick with covid?

[SydneyCarton 47847]

3 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

It's like you actually think a Trumper would avoid going to the polls because they're sick with covid?

In states they deem safe? Yeah, absolutely. For the olds, at least. 

[GRHorn 105]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Is that writer making a point?  If so, what is it?  He has a funny feeling?

It’s always amazing to see how people’s brains go to mush if anything that contradicts their beliefs is shared around here. 
 

I think the point was pretty clear. Trump, and AOC, are experts are using social media to drive enthusiasm and thereby voter turnout. The current contrast in enthusiasm between Trump rallies and Biden parking lot speeches is stark. It’s concerning to Ben for the reasons he listed. 
 

You can disagree with it, but to say he has no point is kind of silly. 

[Ghost of LL 15477]

10 hours ago, The Dog said:

NYT/Upshot says that Monmouth is releasing a Florida poll this week.

Hold on to yer butts...

As a reminder, Monmouth does a proportional weighting in their likely-voter screen.  So if you say you've already voted in person, you might get a 0.99 weight.  If you say you voted by mail, you might get a 0.97 weight.  If you say you're going to vote but don't know where your polling place is and didn't vote in the primary, you might get a 0.45 weight.

It's an interesting way to do a likely voter screen, and I think it makes a lot of sense.  But hold on to your hats because it may produce a very pro-Biden poll owing to the heavy tilt toward Biden with the early vote.

44 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

About. Fucking. Time.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

Harris going to Texas is a pretty good sign.

[TexEx15 17456]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

It’s always amazing to see how people’s brains go to mush if anything that contradicts their beliefs is shared around here. 
 

I think the point was pretty clear. Trump, and AOC, are experts are using social media to drive enthusiasm and thereby voter turnout. The current contrast in enthusiasm between Trump rallies and Biden parking lot speeches is stark. It’s concerning to Ben for the reasons he listed. 
 

You can disagree with it, but to say he has no point is kind of silly. 

I would argue that Trump’s social media is also driving democratic voter turnout.

[GRHorn 105]

23 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

An article that can be summed up with 4 letters:  FOMO.  Ben says that independents/undecideds that are watching big strong powerful MAGA rallies are going to break towards Trump because they don't want to miss out on the big excite.

He actually says that it won’t affect undecideds if you read it. He uses the term “Trump sympathetic voters”. I guess that would include some “independents”. 

[Beau Vine 53984]

49 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Isn't McAllen the reddest town in the RGV?

[jimmyjazz 45546]

3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

It’s always amazing to see how people’s brains go to mush if anything that contradicts their beliefs is shared around here. 
 

I think the point was pretty clear. Trump, and AOC, are experts are using social media to drive enthusiasm and thereby voter turnout. The current contrast in enthusiasm between Trump rallies and Biden parking lot speeches is stark. It’s concerning to Ben for the reasons he listed. 
 

You can disagree with it, but to say he has no point is kind of silly. 

If that's his point, wouldn't we be seeing far heavier Republican turnout, instead of the opposite?

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

 

fox should be ecstatic.  it's easier to attack than defend trump's dumb ass for four more years.

[Storm the Field 5271]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Clark county mail ballots from the previous day tend to get uploaded around 4 AM each morning. Ralston's last blog of each night is always dour compared to the following morning.

Good morning, fellow ravenous data types.

The Dems' Clark County firewall ticked up to almost 72,000 based on latest mail count. The Dems were able to offset the 3,400-early-vote loss Tuesday as they were plus-5,000 in the latest mail count.

Worth following this guy as well, who stays up each night and updates with pretty relevant data.

 

[Beau Vine 53984]

25 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Check out this pro-Biden ad Jeff Daniels did. It makes me verklempt and I've only been to Michigan twice in my whole life.
 

 

Gotdam...

Quote

In 1986, he moved back to his hometown of Chelsea, Michigan, and as of 2016, he still primarily resides there.[38] In 1979, Daniels married his college sweetheart, a fellow Michigan resident also from Chelsea, Kathleen Rosemary Treado.

 

[TexasEd 8064]

11 hours ago, immamac said:

at this point I can't help but think that Trump is trying to get Biden elected so he can step down and get pardoned. Some of the stuff he's doing is just so pro-biden and not really doing anything to expand his base or get them to vote when they otherwise wouldn't have.

It's strange living in Texas because so many people I know who are my age +- 5 years were largely apathetic to voting because of how pointless it was since Texas was so "deep red". The conversations I'm having with 10s of people and their anecdotes of 10s of additional people and their anecdotes of 10s of other people are actually pretty interesting. Most people here have alluded to it as well, there is something happening in Texas that is very...not like Texas at all. I just hope it means that this is the new normal and people don't get apathetic in 2022 and beyond again.

or that third set of 10s of people is just the original data set so you're just in an echo chamber 

 

[TexasEd 8064]

3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

This should be a Biden commercial in every Midwest state. 

 

The music is just so tone deaf.

[The Royal We 3065]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

LMAO 

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

Dallas has been bankrolling Trump, again. I think they were in the top 2 for him 2016 too, and the top fundraising city for the Republican Party. 

 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

looks like icbm launches

[mdmost 42843]

I'd imagine Highland Park, Frisco, and Southlake are sending tons of money to Trumps. The enjoyable part is HP will get swallowed up by all the Blue votes in the city of Dallas. 

[Rimbo 25772]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I agree with @longhornmatt that G Elliot is a little too smug in his positions.  
 

 

 

You're leaving out the other half of that exchange...

"Shh!"

Edited October 28, 2020 by Rimbo

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

38 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Isn't McAllen the reddest town in the RGV?

I believe that would be all the racist fucks in Harlingen. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Look at the Dakotas, those cheapskates. After all Trump has done for them, like offering to put himself on Mt. Rushmore.

[TexasEd 8064]

3 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Most definitely.  It seems as though his biggest issue with other data guys (Nate Cohn and 538 specifically) is that they are all inserting random noise to account for 'uncertainty'.  He thinks Nate is embarrassed about his 2016 prediction so he is throttling back Biden's chances so that he doesn't repeat 2016.

May be a nitpick but I would say they are overcorrecting for data bias or his % certainty window is too large, not that they insert noise.

I used to work with some PHD mathematicians that developed prediction algorithms and while I'm not anywhere close to that level some of their thought processes around their models rubbed off (I think).  The noise is already in the data it is not inserted by the modeler.  The modeler accounts for the noise in the data (sample size, sample bias, etc.) by adjusting the confidence factor and data bias based on what they think ground truth (previously verified results or trends looked like) and looking at the area under the curve.

They would then report their results with statements like the model predicts the outcome is in this range is possibilities with 85% certainty.  The problem with the election data is you have so many possible bias factors to account for and very few ways to get ground truth except for past election results. 

 

Edited October 28, 2020 by TexasEd

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

10 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

May be a nitpick but I would say they are overcorrecting for data bias or his % certainty window is too large, not that they insert noise.

I used to work with some PHD mathematicians that developed prediction algorithms and while I'm not anywhere close to that level some of their thought processes around their models rubbed off (I think).  The noise is already in the data it is not inserted by the modeler.  The modeler accounts for the noise in the data (sample size, sample bias, etc.) by adjusting the confidence factor and data bias based on what they think ground truth (previously verified results or trends looked like) and looking at the area under the curve.

They would then report their results with statements like the model predicts the outcome is in this range is possibilities with 85% certainty.  The problem with the election data is you have so many possible bias factors to account for and very few ways to get ground truth except for past election results. 

 

I should have added that I'm a functional idiot who understands little to nothing about analytics.  I most definitely used the wrong terminology.  I appreciate the explanation.

[Helobious 9480]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

@Helobious

Smart. RGV never votes early, hardly votes at all. They’ve been a little better so far this year though. Fwiw I happened to be down in Weslaco on the first day of early voting. Saw a line like I’ve never seen before at city hall to vote. While the area usually (always?) goes Dem it can’t hurt to squeeze more overall votes out of there. 

[Brisketexan 104557]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

It’s always amazing to see how people’s brains go to mush if anything that contradicts their beliefs is shared around here. 
 

I think the point was pretty clear. Trump, and AOC, are experts are using social media to drive enthusiasm and thereby voter turnout. The current contrast in enthusiasm between Trump rallies and Biden parking lot speeches is stark. It’s concerning to Ben for the reasons he listed. 
 

You can disagree with it, but to say he has no point is kind of silly. 

This is one thing I don't get.  Trump appeals to people who are more likely to become rabid enthusiasts of whatever their passion is, and are the type to show it.  Biden appeals to people who....aren't like that.

Think of how aggies cover their homes, vehicles, and wardrobes with aggy shit, and constantly drop a "whoop!" into conversation and shit.  That's how they are, or at least how most of them are.

Longhorns by and large are NOT like that.  Yeah, they'll wear orange for game days, maybe have a Texas Exes sticker, maybe wear a UT golf shirt out and about.  But we don't aggy it up.

That doesn't mean that Longhorns support their program any less.  It doesn't mean that there are fewer Longhorn fans than there are Aggy fans (in fact, the opposite is true, by any count).

Aggy and Trump may appeal to people who go to rallies and sway to songs and say "whoop!" at socially inappropriate times,  But in terms of electoral impact, the response to that is "so the fuck what?"

I'm only worried about how enthusiastic Trump supporters are as it relates to what they are willing to do other than voting (violence, supporting state-sponsored crimes and cruelty, etc.).  But that guy who stands out on the street in full Trump gear waving a flag.....his vote counts as one vote, same as mine, where I just have a couple of yard signs and no Biden wardrobe.

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

This, McSally was leading Sinema going into Election Day in 2018 and lost.  Desert Florida is the opposite of Florida: Dems tend to over perform the polling.  Also: lots of LDS is AZ.  Mormons ain’t down with the orange clown. 

Even though some of their beliefs are kinda koooky, they are ultra conservative and Republican, and they don’t drink, I’ve always respected the Mormons. Their overall dislike of trump has validated that. There’s a reason why Romney could get away with his impeachment vote. 

[BradInATX 9208]

14 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

May be a nitpick but I would say they are overcorrecting for data bias or his % certainty window is too large, not that they insert noise.

I used to work with some PHD mathematicians that developed prediction algorithms and while I'm not anywhere close to that level some of their thought processes around their models rubbed off (I think).  The noise is already in the data it is not inserted by the modeler.  The modeler accounts for the noise in the data (sample size, sample bias, etc.) by adjusting the confidence factor and data bias based on what they think ground truth (previously verified results or trends looked like) and looking at the area under the curve.

They would then report their results with statements like the model predicts the outcome is in this range is possibilities with 85% certainty.  The problem with the election data is you have so many possible bias factors to account for and very few ways to get ground truth except for past election results. 

 

Yeah, that's sorta what they're doing, Ed.

538 runs basically a glorified Monte Carlo simulation where they run millions of scenarios and then average the results. And they started with an inflated confidence interval and will whittle it down to the real CI by election day. So a few weeks ago they had scenarios where Trump won Oregon in the model, because their CI was so high that out of 1,000 runs of the model, maybe twice Trump won Oregon at the very, very edge of the confidence interval.

As we go on that confidence interval is getting tighter and crazy, effectively impossible scenarios like Trump winning Oregon get the boot and happen zero times in the Monte Carlo model, which is where we see the sharpening of the results.

It accounts for uncertainty and it's a smart way to to do it. But it wouldn't account for huge poll misses (like the 2016 Rust Belt).

 

[Huckleberry 32694]

After the 11:30am SOS website update:

Trump - 4,143,373 (50.6%)
Biden - 3,980,555 (48.6%)
Third Party - 64,318 (0.8%)

Rural counties are slower to get their numbers in. This makes it to where it was a stable day in terms of this margin.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6554]

5 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Even though some of their beliefs are kinda koooky, they are ultra conservative and Republican, and they don’t drink, I’ve always respected the Mormons. Their overall dislike of trump has validated that. There’s a reason why Romney could get away with his impeachment vote. 

I work with a client from Salt Lake City that calls himself a “reformed” Mormon.  He drinks tons of bourbon and spends a lot of time in Vegas at the black jack tables gambling for days at a time.  That’s the kind of Mormon I can be friends with.

[JimmyJames 12271]

51 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Dallas has been bankrolling Trump, again. I think they were in the top 2 for him 2016 too, and the top fundraising city for the Republican Party. 

 

 

Even though it’s overall dem now, Dallas has always had more than its fair share of rich extreme right wing lunatics ready to spend gobs of money so they can make even more, hopefully with the government’s help. It’s basically the city’s founding motto. “I’ve got mine and fuck all y’all!”