2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Red Five 40862]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

“The more bad things happen in the country, it just solidifies support for Trump,” said Phillip Stephens, GOP chairman in Robeson County, N.C

"The more games Tom Herman loses in embarrassing fashion, it just solidifies support for him. We're thinking 10 year contract extension if he can finish off the season with a 40 point loss to OSU."

[gmr548 16580]

"The more games Tom Herman loses in embarrassing fashion, it just solidifies support for him. We're thinking 10 year contract extension if he can finish off the season with a 40 point loss to OSU."

Idk that kind of felt true for part of the football board in 2019.

[henrygandorf 29192]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

I'm hesitant to count on WI because of the legacy of GOP cheating there, despite the fact that I tink Democrats have an advantage there.

isn’t the dnc chair in wisc also that badass young guy?  hopefully he’ll be on top of shit. 

[Biff Tannen 45691]

2 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

isn’t the dnc chair in wisc also that badass young guy?  hopefully he’ll be on top of shit. 

Yes, Ben Wikler.

[gmr548 16580]

isn’t the dnc chair in wisc also that badass young guy?  hopefully he’ll be on top of shit. 

Didn't help much in the shitshow of a special election that caused a covid spike. They do have a Democratic governor and SOS though so the more egregious top down fuckery should hopefully be avoided.

Oh by the way just the fact that we're discussing this tells you we're a third world banana republic.

[Bama Chick 28596]

[Voldemort86 2259]

47 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Didn't help much in the shitshow of a special election that caused a covid spike. They do have a Democratic governor and SOS though so the more egregious top down fuckery should hopefully be avoided.

Oh by the way just the fact that we're discussing this tells you we're a third world banana republic.

It did help a lot. They flipped a Supreme Court seat that the GOP tried to steal by using the corona virus to scare people from the polls.

[Gap03 3308]

6 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457

 

 

 

 

  Hide contents

In Ohio, Jane Timken, the state party chair, said she sees no evidence of support for Trump slipping. Jennifer Carnahan, the chairwoman of the Minnesota Republican Party, said the same. And Lawrence Tabas, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, went so far as to predict that Trump would not only carry his state, but beat Biden by more than 100,000 votes — more than twice the margin he mustered in 2016.

“Contrary to what may be portrayed in the media, there’s still a high level of support out there,” said Kyle Hupfer, chairman of the Indiana Republican Party. He described himself as “way more” optimistic than he was at this point in 2016.

The Republican Party apparatus that Trump heads in 2020 is considerably different than the one that looked at him warily in 2016. At the state level, many chairs who were considered insufficiently committed to the president were ousted and replaced with loyalists. But their assessments would be easier to dismiss as spin if the perception of Trump’s durability did not reach so far beyond GOP officialdom. 

When pollsters ask Americans who they think will win the election — not who they are voting for themselves — Trump performs relatively well. And if anything, Trump’s field officers appear more bullish than Trump and some of his advisers. Even the president, while lamenting what he views as unfair treatment by his adversaries, has privately expressed concerns about his poll numbers and publicly seemed to acknowledge he is down. 

“If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats,” he said on Twitter last week. “Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!”

Yet in the states, the Republican Party's rank-and-file are largely unconvinced that the president is precariously positioned in his reelection bid.

“The narrative from the Beltway is not accurate,” said Joe Bush, chairman of the Republican Party in Muskegon County, Mich., which Trump lost narrowly in 2016. “Here in the heartland, everybody is still very confident, more than ever.”

At the center of the disconnect between Trump loyalists’ assessment of the state of the race and the one based on public opinion polls is a distrust of polling itself. Republicans see an industry that maliciously oversamples Democrats or under-samples the white, non-college educated voters who are most likely to support Trump. They say it is hard to know who likely voters are this far from the election. And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters, under-counting his level of support.

Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the Republican Party in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, said he has friends who will tell pollsters “just exactly the opposite of what they feel.”

When he asked one of them why, his friend told him, “I don’t like some of their questions. It’s none of their business what I do.”

Recalling that polls four years ago failed to predict the outcome, Jack Brill, acting chairman of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla., said, “I used to be an avid poll watcher until 2016 … Guess what? I’m not watching polls.”

Instead, as they prepare for a post-lockdown summer of party picnics and parades, Republican Party organizers sense the beginnings of an economic recovery that, if sustained, is likely to power Trump to a second term. They also see a more immediate opening in the civil unrest surrounding the death of George Floyd.

“The further and further the Democrats tack left, and the further you get to where it’s the defunding the police,” said Scott Frostman, GOP chairman in Wisconsin’s Sauk County, which Obama won easily in 2012 but flipped to Trump four years later. “I think we have the opportunity as Republicans to talk to people a little bit more about some common sense things.”

Biden has rejected a national movement to defund police departments. But elections are often painted in broad strokes, and local party officials expect Trump — with his law and order rhetoric — will be the beneficiary of what they see as Democratic overreach.

“The other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding the police and nonsense like that,” said Michael Burke, chairman of the Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona, a Trump stronghold in 2016.” “Most of the American people are looking like that saying, ‘Really?’”

By most objective measures, Trump will need something to drag Biden down. He has fallen behind Biden in most swing state polls, and he lags the former vice president nationally by more than 8 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Gallup poll last week put Trump’s approval rating at just 39 percent, down 10 percentage points from a month ago. Democrats appear competitive not only in expected swing states, but in places such as Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won easily in 2016.

Little of that data is registering, however. State and local officials point to Trump’s financial and organizational advantages and see Biden as a weak opponent. They’re eager for Trump to eviscerate him in debates. “While the Democrats have been spending their time playing Paper Rock Scissors on who their nominee is going to be, we’ve been building an army,” said Terry Lathan, chair of the Alabama Republican Party. 

James Dickey, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, said it took Biden “days to figure out how to even successfully operate, or communicate out of a bunker” and that he “has clearly not been able to deal with any real challenging interview.”

Local officials brush off criticism of Trump by Republican fixtures such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said last week that Trump “lies all the time.” They dismiss press accounts of the race. Dennis Coxwell, the chairman of Georgia’s Warren County Republican Party, said: “It’s gotten to a point where I cannot believe anything that the news media says.”

Many admire Trump’s bluntest instincts — the same ones that have cost him among women and independent voters, according to polls. “The left called George Bush all kinds of names and just savaged him all the time … and Bush never said a word,” said Burke, who worked for Trump in the late 1980s and early 1990s overseeing his fleet of helicopters. “It was frustrating for those of us on the right. Now a guy comes along, you attack him, you’re getting it back double barrel. And everybody’s sitting around saying, ‘Yeah, that’s right, give it to ‘em.’”

And most of all, they put their confidence in an expectation that the economy will improve by fall.

Doyle Webb, chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party and general counsel to the Republican National Committee, said the only concern that he would have about Trump’s reelection prospects is “if the economy had another downturn.”

“But I don’t see that happening,” Webb said.

Instead, he predicted an improving job outlook and a return to “the old Clinton mantra: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’”

“I think that people will be happy,” Webb said, “and [Trump] will be re-elected.”

It’s a widely-held view. In Pennsylvania last week, Veral Salmon, the Republican Party chairman of the state’s bellwether Erie County, measured enthusiasm for Trump by the large number of requests he has received for Trump yard signs. In Maine, Melvin Williams, chairman of the Lincoln County Republican Committee, saw it in a population he said is “getting sick of this bullshit,” blaming coronavirus-related shutdowns on Democrats. And across the country, in heavily Democratic San Francisco, John Dennis, the chairman of the local GOP, was encouraged by the decreasing number of emails from the “Never Trump” crowd.

Not in his city, but nationally, Dennis said, “I’m pretty confident that [Trump] is going to pull it off.”

 

 

[Bruh Man 3160]

Anybody have any data on the green  ('16 non voters)? Who exactly are these people (age, politically, demos) and if there's been any targeted polling on what they intend to do in 2020?

[Guest Lobo]

I was told those people don't matter by several posters on here with embedded faith in the blue or red camps.  Expect purpose to shrink very significantly this cycle.  Expect the green to be just 5mm more based only on increase in population.  I think you'll see 10mm more from that pool alone though to come out and vote only for team blue or team red.  Mainly young people and people of color who very rarely vote, if ever.  They're coming out and they're coming out for Biden.  What remains to be seen is if they come out in meaningful numbers in the half dozen states we speak of exhaustively.  But popular vote, Trump will lose by ~8mm voters.  I'll take any bet from any Trump supporter on that one (mind you, not anywhere near ready to bet on EC results), and remember I have the RPT inside polling in my personal inbox every single month.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Anybody have any data on the green  ('16 non voters)? Who exactly are these people (age, politically, demos) and if there's been any targeted polling on what they intend to do in 2020?

As for who they are, Pew Research does good stuff.  As to who they favor -- demographically last time it maybe isn't all that clear, because they are younger and less white (D), but uneducated (R).

 

 

 

[gmr548 16580]

It did help a lot. They flipped a Supreme Court seat that the GOP tried to steal by using the corona virus to scare people from the polls.

I meant in terms of curtailing polling place fuckery. Hopefully it's better for the general but if I remember correctly the WI GOP has a veto proof majority in the statehouse so they can pass whatever restrictions they want.

[henrygandorf 29192]

19 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Anybody have any data on the green  ('16 non voters)? Who exactly are these people (age, politically, demos) and if there's been any targeted polling on what they intend to do in 2020?

where is the sliver of 3mm+ voters that voted illegally in ca?

[Voldemort86 2259]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

39 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It did help a lot. They flipped a Supreme Court seat that the GOP tried to steal by using the corona virus to scare people from the polls.

I meant in terms of curtailing polling place fuckery. Hopefully it's better for the general but if I remember correctly the WI GOP has a veto proof majority in the statehouse so they can pass whatever restrictions they want.

That’s true.

 

I recall both Wisconsin and Ohio being gerrymandered hardcore for the GOP and there’s little the Democrats can do about it for the foreseeable future.

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

 

[henrygandorf 29192]

36% just isn’t gonna get you there, donny. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26487]

13 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

That’s true.

 

I recall both Wisconsin and Ohio being gerrymandered hardcore for the GOP and there’s little the Democrats can do about it for the foreseeable future.

The problem with that is that if (big if) the Dems can break the gerrymander with turnout things change in a hurry.  

I remember when @Ag with kids used to defend purely partisan gerrymandering, because he thought that it was more important for a state house or congressional delegation to reflect the party preference of the state in presidential elections than to represent actual communities of interest, on the basis that it would better reflect schools or thought or political philosophy or the like. I wonder if he still does, considering that Donald Trump is the living apotheosis of nihilistic partisan tribalism. 

Edited June 15, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[kevwun 15797]

The gerrymander only works if the suburbs vote strongly Republican.  If they don't, their votes don't beat the slivers of urban areas that they are paired with.

[Tuco 5076]

Some Democrats think that district in Nebraska worth 1 EV is winnable this year.

Extremely. Congress is a coin toss with a progressive candidate (Eastman). I think Biden runs ahead of her by a couple of points, and she helps progressive turnout, who may otherwise sit at home with Biden.
No public polls that I’ve seen. Eastman touts an internal poll that puts her up 48-47 on Bacon.
NE-2 is extremely interesting this year.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

13 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

36% just isn’t gonna get you there, donny. 

What if Trump were to tell you that he had over 90% approval rating in that 36%? I mean 90% of 36% is pretty damn good.

[Voldemort86 2259]

11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The problem with that is that if (big if) the Dems can break the gerrymander with turnout things change in a hurry.  

I remember when @Ag with kids used to defend purely partisan gerrymandering, because he thought that it was more important for a state house or congressional delegation to reflect the party preference of the state in presidential elections than to represent actual communities of interest, on the basis that it would better reflect schools or thought or political philosophy or the like. I wonder if he still does, considering that Donald Trump is the living apotheosis of nihilistic partisan tribalism. 

It is a real problem. I wish there was something that could be done about it. 
 

Ohio usually votes red but not by a huge margin. However, their house seats are an obscene 12 gop vs 4 Democrats.

Wisconsin is a more reasonable 5 gop vs. 3 Democrats on the federal level, but I’ve seen them lose the popular vote statewide plenty of times and still keep a solid majority in the state house / senate. The office of the governor was neutered of all powers after pond scum Scott Walker lost his re-election bid, but before Democrat Tony Evers took office. The Wisconsin GOP use their powers in ways that Hitler’s gestapo would be proud of. They rig elections and voting,  routinely embarrass the Democrat governor, and do a good job of pissing off Democrats all over the country. 

im glad that the map in Michigan is going to be “fixed” to reflect the partisanship of the state, but Wisconsin and Ohio are still rigged pretty badly in their own ways.

[heso 2813]

49 minutes ago, Bruh Man said:

Anybody have any data on the green  ('16 non voters)? Who exactly are these people (age, politically, demos) and if there's been any targeted polling on what they intend to do in 2020?

I am a single data point in that green section. 36, college, white, male, suburb, independent, Pennsylvania. I am a big reason we’re stuck with what we are because I didn’t think bunker bitch had a chance to win. 

I don’t show up in polling because I don’t have a land line and I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t recognize. 

[Orale 1087]

I am a single data point in that green section. 36, college, white, male, suburb, independent, Pennsylvania. I am a big reason we’re stuck with what we are because I didn’t think bunker bitch had a chance to win. 
I don’t show up in polling because I don’t have a land line and I don’t answer calls from numbers I don’t recognize. 

I hope there's a lot of your type this time around going to the polls.

[henrygandorf 29192]

7 hours ago, 406W30th said:

And then people call the cops on Black people who are waiting in line to vote loitering bird watching.

fixed it for both of you.

[Voldemort86 2259]

 

[Incredulity 11675]

5 hours ago, Bruh Man said:

Anybody have any data on the green  ('16 non voters)? Who exactly are these people (age, politically, demos) and if there's been any targeted polling on what they intend to do in 2020?

It’s staggering that 91 Million people didn’t vote.

[Storm the Field 5295]

37 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

 

Have seen several polling guys all basically saying the same thing, that this is pretty much the exact result you'd expect to see if Biden truly is +8 or 9 nationally.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Storm the Field

[henrygandorf 29192]

is trump outperforming 2016 in any state?  predictit has 2-1 against that trump flips any hillary-won state, so he's not projected to do that either.  is there one thing trending in his direction?  not where you want to be considering the margins four years ago.

[JimmyJames 12271]

12 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/trump-glide-reelection-republican-officials-316457

 

 

 

 

  Hide contents

In Ohio, Jane Timken, the state party chair, said she sees no evidence of support for Trump slipping. Jennifer Carnahan, the chairwoman of the Minnesota Republican Party, said the same. And Lawrence Tabas, the chairman of the Pennsylvania Republican Party, went so far as to predict that Trump would not only carry his state, but beat Biden by more than 100,000 votes — more than twice the margin he mustered in 2016.

“Contrary to what may be portrayed in the media, there’s still a high level of support out there,” said Kyle Hupfer, chairman of the Indiana Republican Party. He described himself as “way more” optimistic than he was at this point in 2016.

The Republican Party apparatus that Trump heads in 2020 is considerably different than the one that looked at him warily in 2016. At the state level, many chairs who were considered insufficiently committed to the president were ousted and replaced with loyalists. But their assessments would be easier to dismiss as spin if the perception of Trump’s durability did not reach so far beyond GOP officialdom. 

When pollsters ask Americans who they think will win the election — not who they are voting for themselves — Trump performs relatively well. And if anything, Trump’s field officers appear more bullish than Trump and some of his advisers. Even the president, while lamenting what he views as unfair treatment by his adversaries, has privately expressed concerns about his poll numbers and publicly seemed to acknowledge he is down. 

“If I wasn’t constantly harassed for three years by fake and illegal investigations, Russia, Russia, Russia, and the Impeachment Hoax, I’d be up by 25 points on Sleepy Joe and the Do Nothing Democrats,” he said on Twitter last week. “Very unfair, but it is what it is!!!”

Yet in the states, the Republican Party's rank-and-file are largely unconvinced that the president is precariously positioned in his reelection bid.

“The narrative from the Beltway is not accurate,” said Joe Bush, chairman of the Republican Party in Muskegon County, Mich., which Trump lost narrowly in 2016. “Here in the heartland, everybody is still very confident, more than ever.”

At the center of the disconnect between Trump loyalists’ assessment of the state of the race and the one based on public opinion polls is a distrust of polling itself. Republicans see an industry that maliciously oversamples Democrats or under-samples the white, non-college educated voters who are most likely to support Trump. They say it is hard to know who likely voters are this far from the election. And like many Democrats, they suspect Trump supporters disproportionately hang up on pollsters, under-counting his level of support.

Ted Lovdahl, chairman of the Republican Party in Minnesota’s 8th Congressional District, said he has friends who will tell pollsters “just exactly the opposite of what they feel.”

When he asked one of them why, his friend told him, “I don’t like some of their questions. It’s none of their business what I do.”

Recalling that polls four years ago failed to predict the outcome, Jack Brill, acting chairman of the local Republican Party in Sarasota County, Fla., said, “I used to be an avid poll watcher until 2016 … Guess what? I’m not watching polls.”

Instead, as they prepare for a post-lockdown summer of party picnics and parades, Republican Party organizers sense the beginnings of an economic recovery that, if sustained, is likely to power Trump to a second term. They also see a more immediate opening in the civil unrest surrounding the death of George Floyd.

“The further and further the Democrats tack left, and the further you get to where it’s the defunding the police,” said Scott Frostman, GOP chairman in Wisconsin’s Sauk County, which Obama won easily in 2012 but flipped to Trump four years later. “I think we have the opportunity as Republicans to talk to people a little bit more about some common sense things.”

Biden has rejected a national movement to defund police departments. But elections are often painted in broad strokes, and local party officials expect Trump — with his law and order rhetoric — will be the beneficiary of what they see as Democratic overreach.

“The other side is overplaying its hand, going down roads like defunding the police and nonsense like that,” said Michael Burke, chairman of the Republican Party in Pinal County, Arizona, a Trump stronghold in 2016.” “Most of the American people are looking like that saying, ‘Really?’”

By most objective measures, Trump will need something to drag Biden down. He has fallen behind Biden in most swing state polls, and he lags the former vice president nationally by more than 8 percentage points, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average. A Gallup poll last week put Trump’s approval rating at just 39 percent, down 10 percentage points from a month ago. Democrats appear competitive not only in expected swing states, but in places such as Iowa and Ohio, which Trump won easily in 2016.

Little of that data is registering, however. State and local officials point to Trump’s financial and organizational advantages and see Biden as a weak opponent. They’re eager for Trump to eviscerate him in debates. “While the Democrats have been spending their time playing Paper Rock Scissors on who their nominee is going to be, we’ve been building an army,” said Terry Lathan, chair of the Alabama Republican Party. 

James Dickey, chairman of the Texas Republican Party, said it took Biden “days to figure out how to even successfully operate, or communicate out of a bunker” and that he “has clearly not been able to deal with any real challenging interview.”

Local officials brush off criticism of Trump by Republican fixtures such as former Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said last week that Trump “lies all the time.” They dismiss press accounts of the race. Dennis Coxwell, the chairman of Georgia’s Warren County Republican Party, said: “It’s gotten to a point where I cannot believe anything that the news media says.”

Many admire Trump’s bluntest instincts — the same ones that have cost him among women and independent voters, according to polls. “The left called George Bush all kinds of names and just savaged him all the time … and Bush never said a word,” said Burke, who worked for Trump in the late 1980s and early 1990s overseeing his fleet of helicopters. “It was frustrating for those of us on the right. Now a guy comes along, you attack him, you’re getting it back double barrel. And everybody’s sitting around saying, ‘Yeah, that’s right, give it to ‘em.’”

And most of all, they put their confidence in an expectation that the economy will improve by fall.

Doyle Webb, chairman of the Arkansas Republican Party and general counsel to the Republican National Committee, said the only concern that he would have about Trump’s reelection prospects is “if the economy had another downturn.”

“But I don’t see that happening,” Webb said.

Instead, he predicted an improving job outlook and a return to “the old Clinton mantra: ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’”

“I think that people will be happy,” Webb said, “and [Trump] will be re-elected.”

It’s a widely-held view. In Pennsylvania last week, Veral Salmon, the Republican Party chairman of the state’s bellwether Erie County, measured enthusiasm for Trump by the large number of requests he has received for Trump yard signs. In Maine, Melvin Williams, chairman of the Lincoln County Republican Committee, saw it in a population he said is “getting sick of this bullshit,” blaming coronavirus-related shutdowns on Democrats. And across the country, in heavily Democratic San Francisco, John Dennis, the chairman of the local GOP, was encouraged by the decreasing number of emails from the “Never Trump” crowd.

Not in his city, but nationally, Dennis said, “I’m pretty confident that [Trump] is going to pull it off.”

 

 

That article is complete garbage. Trump supporters think he’s gonna win because reasons. Politico needs the horse race. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

 

That spells a landslide loss for the Trumpkins. 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

You can't gerrymander your district by sex.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 minute ago, cactusflinthead said:

You can't gerrymander your district by sex.

More proof that men are complete dumbasses. 

[gmr548 16580]

is trump outperforming 2016 in any state?  predictit has 2-1 against that trump flips any hillary-won state, so he's not projected to do that either.  is there one thing trending in his direction?  not where you want to be considering the margins four years ago.

I'm not aware of any polls but have to think NH is the best bet there. Minnesota is the sexy pick in that category but that's not happening.

[Guest Lobo]

Nobody has yet to show me how Biden wins Pennsylvania.  Until then, Trump dying after the convention is still a EC possibility.  

[StassneyHorn 6613]

Pennsylvania has voted Dem in 6 out of the last 7 presidential elections. In the 2018 Senate election, Bob Casey won by 13 percentage points. Biden literally grew up in the state and has a nickname of “Scranton Joe.” IMO Pennsylvania will be a route.

HRC was historical levels of dogshit in how she underperformed.

Edited June 16, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[gmr548 16580]

10 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Pennsylvania has voted Dem in 6 out of the last 7 presidential elections. In the 2018 Senate election, Bob Casey won by 13 percentage points. Biden literally grew up in the state and has a nickname of “Scranton Joe.” IMO Pennsylvania will be a route.

HRC was historical levels of dogshit in how she underperformed.

Not in PA she wasn't. 

[gmr548 16580]

42 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Nobody has yet to show me how Biden wins Pennsylvania.  Until then, Trump dying after the convention is still a EC possibility.  

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html#polls

He's generally ahead in the polls and the 2018 midterms and overall history of the state that Stassney mentioned are valid points. It's fair to call it a D lean. It is not anywhere near a lock though - it's Trump's strongest rust belt state and should be getting the most investment of the three from the Biden campaign.

[StassneyHorn 6613]

That’s true, Trump outperformed there big time. I still think Biden on the top of the ticket gets those numbers Obama had in 08 and 12

will be interesting to see if that turnout was FOR Trump and not AGAINST Clinton

Edited June 16, 2020 by StassneyHorn

[gmr548 16580]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

That’s true, Trump outperformed there big time. I still think Biden on the top of the ticket gets those numbers Obama had in 08 and 12

Trump '16 beat Obama '12 in PA. That's the only of those three states where that's true. Clinton actually beat Obama by a hair as well. Despite a similar result, it behaved fundamentaly differently than WI and MI in 2016.

I'm cautiously optimistic that you're right based on what we've seen out of the state since 2018 though.

[Wulaw Horn 19082]

Look- if trump is down 8 nationally (and that seems right to me) he isn’t winning anywhere in Mi, PA, WI and he also isn’t winning FL, NC, AZ, and likely is in trouble in IA, GA, TX and some surprise somewhere else (Indiana? MO? UT). 

He isn’t winning. PA is a democratic state. Weird shit was afoot in 2016. Conditions in America aren’t ripe for returning an unpopular president to the White House especially against a generic democrat. Not going to happen. 

[gmr548 16580]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Look- if trump is down 8 nationally (and that seems right to me) he isn’t winning anywhere in Mi, PA, WI and he also isn’t winning FL, NC, AZ, and likely is in trouble in IA, GA, TX and some surprise somewhere else (Indiana? MO? UT). 

He isn’t winning. PA is a democratic state. Weird shit was afoot in 2016. Conditions in America aren’t ripe for returning an unpopular president to the White House especially against a generic democrat. Not going to happen. 

You are probably right. Most of us basically have PTSD. Your surprise is probably Ohio in that scenario.

[thepop 4409]

139 days

23 hours

54 minutes

 

 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5114]

52 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

You are probably right. Most of us basically have PTSD. Your surprise is probably Ohio in that scenario.

Wulaw was also counting his Clinton chickens going into the last election. To be fair, so were the rest of us, but I think we all have a right to be a little gun shy about anything that isn’t looking like a Mondale level loss for Trump. Anything less than that and I’m going to be biting my nails on that Tuesday in November until Biden is over 300. 

Edited June 16, 2020 by NameAlreadyInUse

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

Voter registration in PA.  There has been even more separation since the end of the graph:

 

Also, saw where in Georgia, 1M people voted in the Democratic primary compared to 900K on the Republican side.  So there's that.

[Pancho 44856]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

I believe the polling and right now it points to a landslide.

I just don't believe that enough people are entrenched in their vote to make me feel comfortable right now. Economic recovery + vaccine by November and I think Trump will reclaim the entirety of the 5-6% or so he's lost to Biden over the last couple of months. Hell, Trump has lost that 5-6% and regained it before. That's enough to get him within a few percentage points of Biden, which was Hillary's margin last time. That's where it gets scary.

And yeah, I know that Trump won't have had anything to do with the vaccine, but that 5-6% of people is very clearly fucking stupid. There is no reason why anyone can reasonably be bouncing back and forth between Trump and Biden right now.

[Pancho 44856]

 

I don’t trust that Florida poll. 

[G650 14263]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

but that 5-6% of people is very clearly fucking stupid.

I think you meant 50-60%

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I think you meant 50-60%

 

Well, yeah,  but I'm talking about that 5-6% that keeps bouncing back and forth in the polling where you go from Trump 45/Biden 48 to Trump 39 Biden 54 (or whatever). 

If you're still undecided you might be stupider than Trump voters. At least they know what they want and know what action they should take to get there. There is no reason to be undecided at this point. The two sides are very distinct and we very much know who the two men are and what they stand for. It's the most pointless election season ever.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

34 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Sports!