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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18318

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I think Biden loses 1 of MI/WI/MN. His best hope is AZ+NC+IA. I think that’s doable.

What odds will you give me that Biden wins all three of MI, WI, and MN and that Texas has more than 9.1 million votes?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don't see Dems doing victory laps anywhere. 

 

I do see nearly 98% of Dems getting PTSD because of 2016 and thinking it's still possible for Trump to win. 

This is correct. If anything it's absurd to see so many Dems acting like this is a nail biter one way or another.  This is like Texas OU in 2005.  That game ended what- 44-12 b/c Mack didn't want to win 100-12? 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18318

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Wait, what? He said Texas won't have more than 9.1 million votes?

Yup

On 10/20/2020 at 9:03 PM, Helobious said:

Lol. Early voting will slow to a crawl the next 2 weeks. I think more people will vote here this election, but it’ll be by 100 or 200,000 or so. 1 million is laughable, 3 million is just clickbait dumbassery. Trump won Texas +9 in 2016, I say he wins it +5 this go around. 
 

Ive looked at almost no stats or trends, and I’ve just given a far more accurate and reasonable prediction of what will happen than any of these Twitter statisticians. Use some common sense once in a while.

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Can you see how much? The fracking counties are all super light pink

Yeah, the place where I horizontally frack your mom is super light pink, too.  

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

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Posted
40 minutes ago, thepop said:

Wonder why they stopped Wisconsin but are allowing Pennsylvania to count ballots arriving after election day

 

Get ready to hear about Bush v. Gore over and over and over again on November 3rd. It solidified the state legislatures as the sole bodies that sets election laws in the states. The Texas Supreme Court threw out the Republican challenge to the Abbott extension solely because they did not timely file in the Court's eyes. It is unlikely for that case to end up in front of SCOTUS, but look for any similar challenges to the of amending state election laws due to COVID to show up in front of SCOTUS before December rolls around.

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Skipper

Skipper 6411

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

damnbit with the sports references!

and anyone who felt safe in 05 until deep in to the 3rd quarter was parachuted on to the planet by aliens and missed the year before, the year before that, 2000, route 66, miami, fedex sherrill, craig curry, and that fucker switzer.

I was thinking the same thing.  And it is a good analogy.  I was in the corner endzone still convinced/paranoid we were going to somehow lose to those fucks until close to zeroes.

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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don't see Dems doing victory laps anywhere. 

 

I do see nearly 98% of Dems getting PTSD because of 2016 and thinking it's still possible for Trump to win. 

The concerning thing I see if that PA is down to +5. It was +7 before the final debate, I think. So, it is possible the oil comments caused a ding there, but as long as Biden holds +5 in PA through 11/3, I think the election is safe. If Biden falls within the MOE in PA, MI, or WI, then it's a nail biter. If not, it's a 300+ EV win.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

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4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I was thinking the same thing.  And it is a good analogy.  I was in the corner endzone still convinced/paranoid we were going to somehow lose to those fucks until close to zeroes.

Your welcome. It's the perfect analogy. Just thought it up on the spot. But yeah- yall (dems) on here are not spiking the ball- you are acting exactly like the timid scared Texas fan was headed up to 2005 against a shitty OU team with an all time all of college football great team with VY (not that Biden is VY, but the disparity between the 2 teams is that great). 

Yall should let your nuts hang and enjoy.  Bama chick is insane in thinking Doug Jones is going to win, but at least she's not afraid of her own shadow like a lot of people on here are.  Relax. Enjoy. Yall have the entire country at your disposal for the 2nd time in 12 years.  That hasn't happened all that often in my lifetime (clinton for 2 years, W for 4 years, Obama for 2 years, Trump for 2 years). I think yall have it, for a minimum based on the Senate map in 2022 for 4 years this go round. I suppose some epic wave in the house could happen in 2022, but I'd bet against as Trump has really polluted the suburbs.  

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 11129

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Maybe I’m a bit paranoid, but I’m not confident we get through the few weeks after the election without some type of widespread civil unrest no matter who wins.  My wife wanted to book a short staycation at one of the beach resorts near us next weekend.  I reminded her that it was the weekend after the election, and we both agreed to hold off on those plans and just stay home for a couple of weeks as kind of a “wait and see.”

I hate that I feel this way, but I just don’t trust people as much as I used to.  

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18318

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

The concerning thing I see if that PA is down to +5. It was +7 before the final debate, I think. So, it is possible the oil comments caused a ding there, but as long as Biden holds +5 in PA through 11/3, I think the election is safe. If Biden falls within the MOE in PA, MI, or WI, then it's a nail biter. If not, it's a 300+ EV win.

I doubt the oil comment did anything in PA. It's not like anyone there actually works those jobs. All the recent polls are Biden +5 or higher. You have one outlier poll from InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness that shows Trump +3 on October 25. Notably, that poll has Donald Trump winning the 18-44 age bracket 50.3% to 44.9%.  And it has him pulling 15.7% of Democrats. I'll let you be the judge of whether that is realistic. 

Oh, it also has Jo Jorgensen pulling 26.3% of the Hispanic vote. 

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf

https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/

 

 

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usmc0331horn

usmc0331horn 995

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Correct.  Military members break out politically by demographics and not just blanket military.  I sat next to an Army Lt Col flying out of CLT once.  Black woman doctor.  She hated Trump and thought he was a racist shitbag and said all of her officer peers felt the same way.

My gf’s parents are both retired Navy captains and hate Trump worse than I do.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19595

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I doubt the oil comment did anything in PA. It's not like anyone there actually works those jobs. All the recent polls are Biden +5 or higher. You have one outlier poll from InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness that shows Trump +3 on October 25. Notably, that poll has Donald Trump winning the 18-44 age bracket 50.3% to 44.9%.  And it has him pull 15.7% of Democrats. I'll let you be the judge of whether that is realistic. 

Oh, it also has Jo Jorgensen pulling 26.3% of the Hispanic vote. 

https://overland.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2020/10/PA-POll-Oct-25th-.pdf

https://amgreatness.com/2020/10/26/trump-takes-the-lead-in-pennsylvania-3-per-new-poll/

 

 

Yeah- I posted the cross tabs on that one when it came out and said- look what kind of idiotic monkeying you have to do to show Trump ahead in PA. Will this finally get people to stop shitting their pants or acting like yall are going to lose?  The answer, a resounding no. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 47158

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Posted

Wait . . . if SCOTUS blocked a change to PA law, that's consistent with their reversal of the WI extension, right?

I mean, I'm no fan of the current court, but it seems like they are trying to say state law must be enforced without change in the middle of an election.  Am I reading that wrong?

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Rimbo

Rimbo 27011

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

SC only decides if the goal posts moved too far from the written rules all the current laws are already constitutional because they have been used forever. It's new shit and changes that SC is ruling on. 

Some of you really need to brush up on how the judiciary works. 

But, I have this podcast I've been listening to...

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

I don't see Dems doing victory laps anywhere. 

 

I do see nearly 98% of Dems getting PTSD because of 2016 and thinking it's still possible for Trump to win. 

It IS possible. It's just improbable. So was 2016, for that matter. Sometimes the improbable occurs.

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The Dog

The Dog 44858

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Posted
1 hour ago, immamac said:

SC only decides if the goal posts moved too far from the written rules all the current laws are already constitutional because they have been used forever. It's new shit and changes that SC is ruling on. 

Some of you really need to brush up on how the judiciary works. 

You mean it's not like in Judge Dredd?

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 55863

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We predict that President Trump is going to win the 2020 presidential election — and win big.

While the majority of the polls suggest that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading, or at best that it’s close, those polls suffer from at least three problems.

First, the tone of the questions. There is significant evidence from behavioral psychology that suggests that the way a question is framed predetermines the range of potential answers. In fact, Gallup has found that respondents can answer very differently to questions with the same topic even in the same survey based on the language that’s used. And the use of metaphors can even dwarf the importance of preexisting differences between Republicans and Democrats.

One of the reasons respondents do that is because of a tendency to give socially desirable answers, which was the case especially during the 2016 election. Most people don’t like confrontation, so the easiest, albeit not necessarily the best, solution is to avoid it. Right now, saying that you’re voting for Trump/Pence is often not the socially desirable answer. In fact, a recent poll by the Cato Institute suggests that nearly two-thirds of Americans say that the political climate is sufficiently harsh that they don’t want to give their genuine opinion about politics.

Second, the sample of respondents. Who responds depends on many factors, including the medium (e.g., landline versus cellphone), the location, the sample size and demographic factors. Moreover, the pool of respondents is not necessarily the same as the pool of likely voters. Even though election polls all contain a margin of error, that margin of error is unreliable if the underlying sample does not reflect the population. Researchers have also identified self-screening as the major contributing factor to the polling failures during the 2016 election cycle.

For example, distrust of pollsters also leads to lower response rates for Trump supporters. Rasmussen finds that 17 percent of likely U.S. voters who “strongly approve” of the job Trump is doing say they are less likely to let others know how they intend to vote in the upcoming election. By comparison, only 8 percent of those who “strongly disapprove” of the president’s performance say the same.

While proper sampling methodology matters more than the size, having a representative sample with enough people still helps considerably. Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group notes how their work to create minimum samples sizes of 1,000 voters, added to their work to doggedly pursue the “quiet Trump voter,” led to Trafalgar being one of the most successful battleground polling firms in the country in 2016. Cahaly explains that “we don’t do a state with less than a thousand. You see these polls, 400, 500, 600 people for a state. I don’t buy that. Your margin of error is far too high.”

Third, the content of the current news cycle. What’s going on in a particular moment in time can influence voter attitudes, particularly in swing states. For example, the recent revelation of Hunter Biden’s hidden emails on his laptop, coupled with the link to his father, has come at an opportune time for the president. Moreover, if the economic recovery continues, the good news may continue putting wind in Trump’s sails.

Admittedly, no poll is perfect. That’s why RealClearPolitics takes a step forward by “averaging out” these errors across polls. But “averaging out” only works when errors are made in both directions. Here, many polls make errors primarily in one direction, so the average will still reflect some of the biases that exist.

Gallup conducted a recent survey finding that 56 percent of respondents report that they are better off than they were four years ago, which is striking given that we are in the midst of a pandemic with a recovering labor market and deepening political polarization.

We delved a little deeper into the data from Gallup, coupled with voter registration data, for eight swing states. We find that states with a higher proportion of people who report that they are thriving have a lower polling average for Biden and a higher one for Trump. What’s even more telling is that there’s a big gap between the percentage of people who say they’re thriving and the percentage who say they’re voting for Biden. For example, that gap is 5.3 percentage points in Pennsylvania.

Moreover, if we look at voter registration in Pennsylvania, we see a similar pattern. There were 803,427 more registered Democrats than Republicans as of May, but that gap has narrowed to 700,853 as of October. In fact, Republicans have netted seven times as many registered Republican voters than Democrats since 2016. Similar trends are taking place in North Carolina and Florida.

We don’t pretend to have all the answers, but we do have some of the right questions. How are people actually feeling? Surveys are great when respondents know what they’re answering and when the sample is representative, but surveys can be misleading otherwise.

Jonathan Jakubowski is author of the newly-released book, “Bellwether Blues: A Conservative Awakening of the Millennial Soul.” He is also director of a startup business focused on sustainable packaging and is the executive chairman of the Wood County (Ohio) Republican Party. Follow him on Twitter at @jonjakubowski. Christos A. Makridis is a research professor with Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business, a senior adviser at Gallup and a nonresident fellow at Baylor University. Follow him at @camakridis.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/522957-dont-believe-the-polls-trump-is-winning-bigly

 

For your  reading pleasure...

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heso

heso 2863

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Posted
52 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Eh, I don't think it'll be enough votes to swing the election. 

I doubt it will be. But right now there are over a million outstanding mail in ballots that are more than 2-1 dem. Now a lot of those will come in over the next week, and some will be canceled and people will cast a provisional at the poll on Tuesday,  and some will go unreturned. But it’s still a lot of ballots right now. 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32076

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

SC only decides if the goal posts moved too far from the written rules all the current laws are already constitutional because they have been used forever. It's new shit and changes that SC is ruling on. 

Some of you really need to brush up on how the judiciary works. 

What it is is that state law receives almost total deference in elections.  State LEGISLATIVE law, not judicial interpretations or alterations of that law, even if done by the state's judiciary.

And, at some point, even state legislative law yields when it violates the one-man, one-vote principle embodied in the Equal Protection Clause.

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mdmost

mdmost 44018

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Posted (edited)

I apologize if this has been covered but what states do we think aren't going to be called on Election Night because of mail in ballots? I know Pennsylvania is one. Florida is probably another.  Wisconsin? What are other states where mail ins will be an issue? Trying to figure out if Biden would have a path to 270 on election night without those?

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15698

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Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

I apologize if this has been covered but what states do we think aren't going to be called on Election Night because of mail in ballots? I know Pennsylvania is one. Florida is probably another.  Wisconsin? What are other stays where mail ins will be an issue? Trying to figure out if Biden would have a path to 270 on election night without those?

Florida will be called on Election Night.

The only two states that conceivably may not be called because of a delay in mail-in ballots are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and Wisconsin is looking so far out of reach for Trump that it is increasingly looking like it is not a swing state).

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted (edited)

Arizona won't be called for a week.  Book it.  The uncertainty in the Eastern Time Zone may effect a handful of decisions into the night.  Pennsylvania is gonna be a shitshow at least until Thanksgiving.  

Full moon on Halloween Saturday night with social distancing, followed up immediately by a shift back to Standard Time that same night...and then more municipalities, schools, and employers giving people Election Day off than I've ever seen in my adult life.  yeah the counting is gonna be a fucking shitshow.  I'm pretty damn straight and narrow these days, but if anybody has any peyote...I'd like to meet you for coffee next week.  

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The Dog

The Dog 44858

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Posted
1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

Florida will be called on Election Night.

The only two states that conceivably may not be called because of a delay in mail-in ballots are Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (and Wisconsin is looking so far out of reach for Trump that it is increasingly looking like it is not a swing state).

dammit LL I was just gonna direct him to this: https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/vopp-table-16-when-absentee-mail-ballot-processing-and-counting-can-begin.aspx

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UncleSonny

UncleSonny 6798

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Posted
2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I apologize if this has been covered but what states do we think aren't going to be called on Election Night because of mail in ballots? I know Pennsylvania is one. Florida is probably another.  Wisconsin? What are other stays where mail ins will be an issue? Trying to figure out if Biden would have a path to 270 on election night without those?

There was some pretty interesting stuff about that in this interview with the guy who oversees the ABC News Decision Desk. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/politics-podcast-how-the-media-projects-the-winner-of-an-election/

Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania were mentioned as the three most likely to not be called election night. Without those three it will be tough for a network to officially call a winner that night.

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The Dog

The Dog 44858

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:
1 hour ago, Helobious said:
I think Biden loses 1 of MI/WI/MN. His best hope is AZ+NC+IA. I think that’s doable.

You think Trump is going to win one of MI, WI or MN? Is this just wishful thinking or do you have a thought of how Trump is going to turn the polling around from +8 at the closest?

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Helobious

Helobious 9818

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:
1 hour ago, Helobious said:
I think Biden loses 1 of MI/WI/MN. His best hope is AZ+NC+IA. I think that’s doable.

You think Trump is going to win one of MI, WI or MN? Is this just wishful thinking or do you have a thought of how Trump is going to turn the polling around from +8 at the closest?

I was under the impression that things were close in Michigan, I have that as most likely to go for Trump. I think Biden is in good shape in WI & MN.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 18318

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I was under the impression that things were close in Michigan, I have that as most likely to go for Trump. I think Biden is in good shape in WI & MN.

Again:

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

What odds will you give me that Biden wins all three of MI, WI, and MN and that Texas has more than 9.1 million votes?

 

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