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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,962

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Posted
1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I actually hate this poll because there is no way Biden is +5 in Ohio, which makes me worried about the PA number.

Or it could be PA is actually +10 for Biden.

I personally happen to think Q sort of sucks  and this is why, but we will see pretty quickly. 

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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

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Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30,050

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Moving to realclearpolitics.com and adapting the 270 map to show anything that is +/- FIVE PERCENT 5% either way in gray/brown/notred/notblue.   538 last night -> realclear 2pm ct today   realclear at 5% or less = 10 states in play   biggest movers w/ new criteria/data:  az & oh are dead heats, mn now in play, mi safe   ak: -6.6 -> -6.0 calling cheeto   az: +3.5 -> 0.0 tied fl: +1.5 -> +1.4
ga: +1.5 -> +0.4
in: -8.8 -> -7.0 calling cheeto ia: +1.6 -> +1.0
ks: -9.3 -> -7 calling cheeto
mi: +8.1 -> +8.2 calling joe
mn: +8.1 -> +4.7
mo: -6.7 -> -6.0 calling cheeto
mt: -5.6 -> -6.0 calling cheeto
nc: +2.1 -> +0.7
ne: -6.2 -> removing: assuming NE CD2 cancels ME CD2 nv: +6.3 -> +4.6
oh: -1.7 -> 0.0 tied
pa: +5.2 -> +4.3
sc: -7.8 -> -7.0 calling cheeto
tx: -1.8 -> -2.6
wi: +8.5 -> +6.4 calling joe
  ylA9x

Biden will win Arizona, Nevada and I think Georgia. I think he’ll take Pennsylvania, Iowa and Minnesota, but he won’t need them.
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Mdhorn

Mdhorn 5,908

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2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Cubans who reach US Soil are automatically legal (unless something has changed) and there is always an unspoken tension between "legal" Hispanic immigrants and those "illegals." There is some arrogance (real or perceived) from Cubans especially against Mexican and Central American immigrants. Same way some 3rd and 4th generation Mexican Americans in South Texas can be really hostile or outright racist against new "illegal" immigrants. Or so I've heard.

That would be interesting that they're taking our jobs rhetoric wouldn't apply to Cubans.  

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Red Five

Red Five 40,592

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12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm starting to get a little concerned about the map where Biden wins Hillary plus AZ, MI, WI which I believe is the 269/269 map.

Like maybe a 3 of 10 on the concern scale. Not super worried, but a little bit.

That's the scenario I was babbling about yesterday, and would require Trump winning a bunch of states he's currently losing. 

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9,208

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Just now, Red Five said:

That's the scenario I was babbling about yesterday, and would require Trump winning a bunch of state's he's currently losing. 

Yeah, but NC/GA/FL aren't really that big of a stretch. PA is the one that is a stretch and I'm getting a little bit nervous about it. 

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Planet Houston

Planet Houston 4,921

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm starting to get a little concerned about the map where Biden wins Hillary plus AZ, MI, WI which I believe is the 269/269 map.

Like maybe a 3 of 10 on the concern scale. Not super worried, but a little bit.

Edit - moron.  I pointed out MN but Hillary won MN. 

But still no way.

Edited by Planet Houston
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Lagunamadre

Lagunamadre 1,975

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37 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s almost like the people on the ledge predicting the entire breakdown of America might be overstating things a wee bit. 
this country isn’t as fragile as some think.  

It will be death by a thousand paper cuts, not all in one felled swoop. 

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Rimbo

Rimbo 25,745

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

I'm still amazed that Trumpworld doesn't realize that this is the main and perhaps only reason he's losing. He had reelection placed in his lap as a crisis time President and completely bungled it. And they're still digging that hole. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,962

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9 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Chances of Trump winning Florida, NC, Georgia, PA, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa? 5%?

I think that conceptualizes it wrong by a bit. Those are not independent events. if he wins Florida for example he’s going to win GA, and Texas and probably North Carolina. 
If he wins PA he’s going to win IA and OH as well. 
that puts AZ and NC in a different bucket. So he’s got to win in  3 or 4 different places, (depending upon if you think NC belongs in a group with FL and GA) regardless of how many states you are talking about as swing states. 

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heso

heso 2,748

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1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

66-29 Trump in 2016

Butler county is somewhat interesting this time around. It’s the only county in western PA that’s had population growth recently and that growth is all along the southern border  from forest being turned into upper middle class Pittsburgh suburbs. 

One of the biggest employers in the county is a steel mill so Trumps steel play resonates there, but one of their main products (electrical steel for transformers) didn’t get the boost from the tariffs that they were expecting because people just started shipping the Asian steel into Canada and Mexico and then assembling there to avoid the steel tariff. In March the company that owns the plant threatened that it would have close the plant if the tariffs weren’t tightened. They had just spent a few billion to buy the plant so I don’t believe they’d actually shut it down.

Trump will still win bigly, but I expect it to be closer this time, if that new growth leans Dem at all.

Also trump has a rally in Butler on Saturday. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,270

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32 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm starting to get a little concerned about the map where Biden wins Hillary plus AZ, MI, WI which I believe is the 269/269 map.

Like maybe a 3 of 10 on the concern scale. Not super worried, but a little bit.

In that situation, Biden is currently odds-on favorite to win NE-2 (78%) and is slightly ahead in ME-2 (55%). That gets you the 271-267 map. Nightmarishly close but still a win.

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NameAlreadyInUse

NameAlreadyInUse 5,104

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Yeah I don’t get Trump’s covid stance at all. Fucking Putin & Boris Johnson threw their support behind mask mandates in their countries. If Trump mandated (or even just told) people to wear them the virus wouldn’t be quite so bad. Nothing he could ever do would cause his support to waiver, no idea why he didn’t just roll with common sense.

 That's easy.  He didn't roll with it because he didn't want to wear one, because he knows what it would do to his makeup.  Remember, it is always about HIM.  He DGAF about how many people die, masks fuck up his makeup, so masks are bad.

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26,218

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I will bet you large amounts of money IA and OH end up right of PA. Regardless of who wins them. 

I'm not betting anything on anything this year other than the future of the Republic, but IA and PA don't move together. Ohio does to an extent, but is like 5-6 points redder than Pa. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,425

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51 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s almost like the people on the ledge predicting the entire breakdown of America might be overstating things a wee bit. 
this country isn’t as fragile as some think.  

And it's a lot more fragile than a lot of people stubbornly refuse to acknowledge.

As for small SCOTUS actions (that really amount to inaction) that are favorable to our idea of a functioning electoral system.....be very wary when you're winning lots of trivial preliminary rulings.  In trial, there are few alarm bells that ring more loudly than the "I'm winning every objection dispute" bell.  That means the judge is giving you all the leeway he can.....so you have nothing to bitch about on appeal when utterly fucks you in the end.

I trust this SCOTUS about as far as I can throw them on matters of partisan election politics, and you're a fool to trust them any more than that.  The play here is for Biden to win convincingly enough that even a court's finger on some scales can't make a difference.  And if it can't make a difference, they won't even bother taking action.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,962

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'm not betting anything on anything this year other than the future of the Republic, but IA and PA don't move together. Ohio does to an extent, but is like 5-6 points redder than Pa. 

Eh- PA and Florida are the hard lifts for him- everything else takes care of itself. Other than AZ. 

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NorthLoop

NorthLoop 14,066

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2 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

 That's easy.  He didn't roll with it because he didn't want to wear one, because he knows what it would do to his makeup.  Remember, it is always about HIM.  He DGAF about how many people die, masks fuck up his makeup, so masks are bad.

Honestly I think it was because, before Trump had even said one word about masks, the hillbilly right who had already started up with the whole "this is a hoax by the liberal media" shit immediately jumped on the anti-mask bandwagon. Trump just followed his base in this case. 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 53,949

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1 hour ago, mchookem said:

i used this to check on two young women in my life, 18 and 22...i told them 1) Texas actually MATTERS this time,  and 2) think of it as a vote for PP, which they both use for birth control and general female wellness.

one voted today and the other has a plan for tomorrow! 🤘

Pics aren't showing up.  Please re-upload.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,962

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3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And it's a lot more fragile than a lot of people stubbornly refuse to acknowledge.

 

Look at history. Everything ends. It’s the nature of mankind- we aren’t eternal and we are building on foundations of sand. But Donald Trump isn’t what ends this republic. We are a long ways away from a death rattle. 

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11,667

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And it's a lot more fragile than a lot of people stubbornly refuse to acknowledge.

As for small SCOTUS actions (that really amount to inaction) that are favorable to our idea of a functioning electoral system.....be very wary when you're winning lots of trivial preliminary rulings.  In trial, there are few alarm bells that ring more loudly than the "I'm winning every objection dispute" bell.  That means the judge is giving you all the leeway he can.....so you have nothing to bitch about on appeal when utterly fucks you in the end.

I trust this SCOTUS about as far as I can throw them on matters of partisan election politics, and you're a fool to trust them any more than that.  The play here is for Biden to win convincingly enough that even a court's finger on some scales can't make a difference.  And if it can't make a difference, they won't even bother taking action.

these are final dispositions, analogy boy.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,425

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2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

these are final dispositions, analogy boy.

Of some small-scale specific vote counting issues.  The SCOTUS isn't out of the picture here unless the final vote margin is big enough to make their participation meaningless.

Do not trust any institution with even a whisper of GOP influence.  Not even a little bit.  They are a criminal enterprise, and will always act accordingly.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45,494

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13 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

95% of his voters can’t find Venezuela on a map. 

 

Says the guy who props up farmers with massive subsidies to cover his asinine tariffs, and who has presided over considerable economic stimulus funding because he's too dumb to tell people to wear masks until it's too late.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29,174

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23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Trump gonna lose Omaha. That’s 270-268. And Omaha isn’t going to be particularly close. 

as horrifyingly close as this would be, it would mean he won florida and penn, which would be the two states i would bet on for legal action.

if he lost 270-268, where would he sue?  nevada?  wisconsin i guess?

slimmer margin might mean less fuckery afterwards, but it's not gonna matter.  it's gonna be a wipeout.

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6,531

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24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think that conceptualizes it wrong by a bit. Those are not independent events. if he wins Florida for example he’s going to win GA, and Texas and probably North Carolina. 
If he wins PA he’s going to win IA and OH as well. 
that puts AZ and NC in a different bucket. So he’s got to win in  3 or 4 different places, (depending upon if you think NC belongs in a group with FL and GA) regardless of how many states you are talking about as swing states. 

Not sure I agree with your premise.  Many of these states are really separate and can go either way.  If Trump wins FL because of the strong Latino vote/hillbillies in the panhandle that doesn't mean he wins GA who may get a strong African American vote in Atlanta that is better than we have ever seen.  Same goes for PA and OH.  Totally separate states and I believe Trump takes OH but Biden takes PA because Philly and the Philly suburbs turn the state back to blue where OH doesn't have that kind of urban area and OH is just a "redder" state at this point.  IA is separate from any of these states and can go either way just like AZ could go either way (I think AZ goes to Biden).

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27-25

27-25 2,040

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1 hour ago, Helobious said:

Yeah I don’t get Trump’s covid stance at all. Fucking Putin & Boris Johnson threw their support behind mask mandates in their countries. If Trump mandated (or even just told) people to wear them the virus wouldn’t be quite so bad. Nothing he could ever do would cause his support to waiver, no idea why he didn’t just roll with common sense.

Well the problem is in bold right there.  Can't roll with what one lacks.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,425

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7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Look at history. Everything ends. It’s the nature of mankind- we aren’t eternal and we are building on foundations of sand. But Donald Trump isn’t what ends this republic. We are a long ways away from a death rattle. 

Says pretty much every member of every society that has ever collapsed, right up to the bitter end.

It reminds me of the 1998 Aggy v. Nebraska game.  I listened to it on the drive back from UT curbstomping OU.  But I found a Nebraska radio broadcast, and it was fascinating -- remember, this was back when NU thought they were truly invincible.  Aggy was beating them the whole game, it really wasn't even close.

Yet, with their backs against the wall and aggy running out the clock in the final minutes, the NU announcers were STILL talking about "well, when the Huskers win this one, they'll be 3-0 in conference when they face Kansas next week," and shit like that.  They just presumed, in spite of the overwhelming evidence, that NU was going to win.  It wasn't until you could literally hear the Kyle Field crowd start counting down the clock -- "10, 9, 8...." -- that one of the announcers said "well.....it looks like the Huskers might lose this one."  My buddies and I cracked the hell up in the car.  It was amazing to hear.  Gee, you THINK?  They've been down a TD and aggy has been moving the ball to run out the clock easily the last 2 minutes.  But not until the final gun was mere seconds from firing did they go "well shit, I guess this is the end."

America is as arrogant and clueless as 1998 Nebraska.  We'll do the same. You're doing it right now.  Ignoring the erosion and destruction of almost every institution and failsafe, pretending all will be fine.  It isn't.  It won't.

The goal with this election is to pull out of the nosedive.  That's step 1, but it's a long fucking way from reaching a safe landing.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,962

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3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

as horrifyingly close as this would be, it would mean he won florida and penn, which would be the two states i would bet on for legal action.

if he lost 270-268, where would he sue?  nevada?  wisconsin i guess?

slimmer margin might mean less fuckery afterwards, but it's not gonna matter.  it's gonna be a wipeout.

If you really want to stay up late at night and worry about consititutional crisis it would be faithless elector. I will let Brisket worry about that. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,962

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4 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Not sure I agree with your premise.  Many of these states are really separate and can go either way.  If Trump wins FL because of the strong Latino vote/hillbillies in the panhandle that doesn't mean he wins GA who may get a strong African American vote in Atlanta that is better than we have ever seen.  Same goes for PA and OH.  Totally separate states and I believe Trump takes OH but Biden takes PA because Philly and the Philly suburbs turn the state back to blue where OH doesn't have that kind of urban area and OH is just a "redder" state at this point.  IA is separate from any of these states and can go either way just like AZ could go either way (I think AZ goes to Biden).

Maybe. I just would bet almost all I own that if trump wins PA he’s winning Ohio and  I’d bet a fair bit on IA too. 

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6,531

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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe. I just would bet almost all I own that if trump wins PA he’s winning Ohio and  I’d bet a fair bit on IA too. 

I guess a disagree in that I think Trump is going to win Ohio no matter what PA does so I don't think they work together in that way.  Same way GA and FL could go for Trump and NC based on the Charlotte area could go for Biden.  These are really different states at this point.

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