2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Tuco 5,076]

I believe the polling and right now it points to a landslide.
I just don't believe that enough people are entrenched in their vote to make me feel comfortable right now. Economic recovery + vaccine by November and I think Trump will reclaim the entirety of the 5-6% or so he's lost to Biden over the last couple of months. Hell, Trump has lost that 5-6% and regained it before. That's enough to get him within a few percentage points of Biden, which was Hillary's margin last time. That's where it gets scary.
And yeah, I know that Trump won't have had anything to do with the vaccine, but that 5-6% of people is very clearly fucking stupid. There is no reason why anyone can reasonably be bouncing back and forth between Trump and Biden right now.

All of this. The polling clearly indicates that Biden would win if the election were held next week. (If you don’t believe the polls, that’s cool, but it doesn’t leave us with much to discuss.). The problem is that Trump has had massively shitty poll numbers previously, only to bounce back to reasonably shitty numbers a few months later. He can win with reasonably shitty numbers. He can win if Biden only beats him by 3 points in the popular vote.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

55 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I believe the polling and right now it points to a landslide.

I just don't believe that enough people are entrenched in their vote to make me feel comfortable right now. Economic recovery + vaccine by November and I think Trump will reclaim the entirety of the 5-6% or so he's lost to Biden over the last couple of months. Hell, Trump has lost that 5-6% and regained it before. That's enough to get him within a few percentage points of Biden, which was Hillary's margin last time. That's where it gets scary.

And yeah, I know that Trump won't have had anything to do with the vaccine, but that 5-6% of people is very clearly fucking stupid. There is no reason why anyone can reasonably be bouncing back and forth between Trump and Biden right now.

Lightning isn’t going to strike twice. The only think Trumpkins have left is Biden shitting himself on the debate stage.

I remember being in line to vote and the James Comey announcement popped up. Some people literally looked at their phones, saw the headline, and left the line to vote. 
 

I remember watching the announcement on TV later and my first thought was he just doomed Clinton’s chances. The polling narrowed considerably in favor of Trump over the next week before Election Day. It really put a damper on democratic enthusiasm and made people think twice about voting for her. What made it so devastating is that people viewed James Comey as non partisan.
 

That ugly fat fuck Bill Barr will try to help Trump in someway, but he can’t produce the same effect. Anyone with half a brain cell knows that he’s just some overrated partisan hack who does Trumps bidding. Trump took his fat ass off the political scrap heap and he has to prove himself to Trump or go back to being irrelevant like he’s been for most of his pathetic existence.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Biff Tannen 45,492]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The only think Trumpkins have left is Biden shitting himself on the debate stage.

There aren't going to be debates.

[Pancho 44,470]

27 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

There aren't going to be debates.

This.  Trump will find a way to not debate. 

[thepop 4,409]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

I believe the polling and right now it points to a landslide.

I just don't believe that enough people are entrenched in their vote to make me feel comfortable right now. Economic recovery + vaccine by November and I think Trump will reclaim the entirety of the 5-6% or so he's lost to Biden over the last couple of months. Hell, Trump has lost that 5-6% and regained it before. That's enough to get him within a few percentage points of Biden, which was Hillary's margin last time. That's where it gets scary.

And yeah, I know that Trump won't have had anything to do with the vaccine, but that 5-6% of people is very clearly fucking stupid. There is no reason why anyone can reasonably be bouncing back and forth between Trump and Biden right now.

He will recover in the polls but won't get closer than Biden +6, which has been the average in the polls since I think 2019 when the economy was good and there was no virus. Barring some extreme voter suppression or something crazy happening between now and then, I can't see him getting close enough to win again. You just have PTSD and I understand, I have it too.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3,550]

Couple things.

(1) There won't be a vaccine available by November in which Trump can take credit for.

(2) Trump will continue to be Trump. What does that mean? He will continue to create further division in the country. It will swing what remaining people who still are on the fence to not cast a vote for him.

(3) Trump's high water mark in approval ratings is 45.8% back on March 31st. The last time he sniffed anything above 45% approval ratings was back in January of 2017, Trump's inauguration.

(4) Turn out the vote for Biden and this goes down as the greatest rebuttal in election history.

[Biff Tannen 45,492]

Just now, thepop said:

Barring some extreme voter suppression or something crazy happening between now and then

So 100% chance then.

[Hank Kingsley 20,680]

There won't be a vaccine by November, and even if he promises one will be available in early 2021, it won't move the needle. The "Trump vaccine bump" is bullshit IMO. 

If the economy recovers by November (however unlikely), I don't think that moves the needle much either. Trump has always polled well with the economy and has always been projected to lose to Biden anyways. 

What's not being talked about enough is the BLM/civil rights movement we're currently living in. That will still be going and continue to be a major news story in November. The reason why this movement feels like a legitimate tipping point is because Trump is in office and his embrace of white supremacy. People have had enough. 

Black people and women will vote Trump out.

 

[thepop 4,409]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

So 100% chance then.

They will certainly try. Most of the swing states thankfully have Democratic Governors. States like Georgia and Florida on the other hand I would just treat as a loss already.

[Hank Kingsley 20,680]

Florida and Georgia are winnable, but obviously they shouldn't count on it. Those states will be the difference between a Biden EC victory and a Biden EC blowout. 

 

[The Dog 43,802]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

I don’t trust that Florida poll. 

Remember it's a snapshot. It's accurate as of today. 

Keep in mind that American Greatness is a conservative rag. The fact they ran this is telling - not that they would hide numbers they don't like (and they did try to spin them the best they could). The bottom line is that these are BAD numbers for Trump right now.

[gmr548 16,503]

Voter registration in PA.  There has been even more separation since the end of the graph:

 
Also, saw where in Georgia, 1M people voted in the Democratic primary compared to 900K on the Republican side.  So there's that.

GA primary number is interesting bc the Democratic presidential race is over, so you wouldn't expect that to drive larger turnout. Generic partisan turnout numbers are decently predictive if all else is equal. Don't know much about GA down ballot stuff though. Thay could explain.

[Hank Kingsley 20,680]

Brutal. 

 

[gmr548 16,503]

He will recover in the polls but won't get closer than Biden +6, which has been the average in the polls since I think 2019 when the economy was good and there was no virus. Barring some extreme voter suppression or something crazy happening between now and then, I can't see him getting close enough to win again. You just have PTSD and I understand, I have it too.

Biden's consistent lead is worth noting. Biden v Trump has been asked in polls basically since the day after the 2016 election. Biden's steady, long term lead is unprecedented in modern American politics. At this point there's enough data that we know who is ahead. The margin may move some based on current events, but we know more people want Biden, even in swing states.

The key is turnout. I'm optimistic based on what we've seen over the course of the Trump admin, but fully expect outright cheating that'd make third world countries blush.

[gmr548 16,503]

Brutal. 
 

Being extremely proud to be an American is stupid and I would've said that under Obama or any other admin. Goes beyond politics. It's raw, unsupported nationalism/ exceptionalism, which is equal parts stupid and dangerous.

[Hank Kingsley 20,680]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

9 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Brutal. 
 

Being extremely proud to be an American is stupid and I would've said that under Obama or any other admin. Goes beyond politics. It's raw, unsupported nationalism/ exceptionalism, which is equal parts stupid and dangerous.

I don't disagree, but Trump's nationalist rhetoric and overall administration has actually made it worse. 

 

[Biff Tannen 45,492]

46 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

54 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Brutal. 
 

Being extremely proud to be an American is stupid and I would've said that under Obama or any other admin. Goes beyond politics. It's raw, unsupported nationalism/ exceptionalism, which is equal parts stupid and dangerous.

American Exceptionalism is one of the great downfalls of this nation.

[henrygandorf 29,174]

i would normally agree that it’s stupid and meaningless, however one of trump’s moves is wrapping himself in the flag, having his supporters chant u-s-a, and generally trying to align himself with ‘america’. he essentially is saying, a vote for me, is a vote for patriotism. 

that poll is america replying, “hey trump, get fucked.”

[gmr548 16,503]

i would normally agree that it’s stupid and meaningless, however one of trump’s moves is wrapping himself in the flag, having his supporters chant u-s-a, and generally trying to align himself with ‘america’. he essentially is saying, a vote for me, is a vote for patriotism. 
that poll is america replying, “hey trump, get fucked.”

Yeah, I'm not dismissing it. It's another way to look at the national mood. Peoole are angry, worried, frustrated, embarrassed... Some combination of those. Doesn't bode well for an incumbent president. Unfortunately his legacy will last long after he's gone, be that 2020 or later. It's going to take a lot to get young peoole and minorities feeling genuinely good about this country.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Brutal. 
 

Being extremely proud to be an American is stupid and I would've said that under Obama or any other admin. Goes beyond politics. It's raw, unsupported nationalism/ exceptionalism, which is equal parts stupid and dangerous.

 

20 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

American Exceptionalism is one of the great downfalls of this nation.

This is commie bullshit.  Nationalism != exceptionalism, particularly of the American Exceptionalism variety, because the reason for exceptionalism was often the belief we were carrying out the ideals of 1776.  From 1941-1991, American Exceptionalism was as big a driving motivator to push back against global fascism and communism as anything else.

It can be good again so long as it is once again couched in terms of 'all men are created equal,' 'we choose to do these things, not because they are easy but because they are hard' sort of grand experiment thing.  It's just that right now it seems like American exceptionalism is tremendously stupid because we are led by tremendously stupid peeople. 

[Biff Tannen 45,492]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

It can be good again so long as it is once again couched in terms of 'all men are created equal,' 'we choose to do these things, not because they are easy but because they are hard' sort of grand experiment thing.  It's just that right now it seems like American exceptionalism is tremendously stupid because we are led by tremendously stupid peeople

Somewhat agree, with the added caveat that we have also become a tremendously stupid populace.  American Exceptionalism has made people become complacent and not strive for progress and perfection.  They think everything is fine and good because of the simple fact that we are 'Merica.  That is not how you build a successful nation.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

several absolutely brutal polls dropped today for the GOP in New Mexico and michigan.

 

shows both trump and the GOP senate candidates way behind.

[Guest Lobo]

To be fair to America, we really never gave much of a shit about our Exceptionalism, or our place on the world stage at all, for the first 165 years of our existence.  We were just a new transfer to the school with a cool backstory.  But we kinda hung out, had our own shit going on internally, flexed our muscle a little bit here and there---mostly on our own continent.  Then we were thrust into the starting role in 1941 (165 years later) much like Mox in "Varsity Blues" because England hurt its kneecap.  And we've been behaving like assholes ever since, but assholes with good intentions.  We need a Tweeter to get us back on course, but not this Trump on Tweeter jag-off, but like a cool Tweeter.  Like a Biden type Tweeter, even though Biden looks like the asshole coach.  Dammit, you people know what I mean for fuck's sake. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

In other election news,

Georgia is starting to narrow in the betting markets. GOP is still in the lead, but it’s getting closer. Georgia might actually be in play sooner than expected.

[Biff Tannen 45,492]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Dammit, you people know what I mean for fuck's sake. 

[Ghost of LL 15,486]

It's not going to show up for a couple weeks, but I think the effect that the Bostock case has on Trump's support is going to be really interesting.

The evangelicals have been his strongest base of support.  And let's give them a bit of credit--they know they've done a deal with the devil.  But they've thought they got the good end of that deal because "judges."

And now, that marquee judge has written the opinion that LGBTQ people are protected by Title VII (and presumably, by extension, the Equal Protection Clause).  Suddenly, that devil's deal isn't looking so good.  And one wonders whether that will reduce their enthusiasm and prompt some of them to stay at home.

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

 

[The Dog 43,802]

3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

In other election news,

Georgia is starting to narrow in the betting markets. GOP is still in the lead, but it’s getting closer. Georgia might actually be in play sooner than expected.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/georgia/

Take it with a grain of salt but Biden +2 in the latest Georgia poll (only of voters - not RV or LV). Appears to have been done on behalf of either Biden or Ossoff so don't expect it in the RCP average (they leave out partisan polls IIRC).

[The Dog 43,802]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

It's not going to show up for a couple weeks, but I think the effect that the Bostock case has on Trump's support is going to be really interesting.

The evangelicals have been his strongest base of support.  And let's give them a bit of credit--they know they've done a deal with the devil.  But they've thought they got the good end of that deal because "judges."

And now, that marquee judge has written the opinion that LGBTQ people are protected by Title VII (and presumably, by extension, the Equal Protection Clause).  Suddenly, that devil's deal isn't looking so good.  And one wonders whether that will reduce their enthusiasm and prompt some of them to stay at home.

 

There's a paywalled WSJ article that appears to say exactly this (I say 'appear' because I can't read past the headline since I'm not a sub).

https://www.wsj.com/articles/gay-rights-ruling-complicates-trump-effort-to-hold-evangelical-voters-11592313428

[gmr548 16,503]

This is commie bullshit.  Nationalism != exceptionalism, particularly of the American Exceptionalism variety, because the reason for exceptionalism was often the belief we were carrying out the ideals of 1776.  From 1941-1991, American Exceptionalism was as big a driving motivator to push back against global fascism and communism as anything else.
It can be good again so long as it is once again couched in terms of 'all men are created equal,' 'we choose to do these things, not because they are easy but because they are hard' sort of grand experiment thing.  It's just that right now it seems like American exceptionalism is tremendously stupid because we are led by tremendously stupid peeople. 

Ok boomer.

But really, I think a sense of a common good, and subsequent loss of that sense, is more behind what you're talking about than exceptionalism. We're led by stupid people, but they got there because we've become a people so self centered, so unwilling to consider any sacrifice, no matter how short in duration or significant the societal payoff, that our society is straight up failing.

[The Dog 43,802]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

Ok boomer.

But really, I think a sense of a common good, and subsequent loss of that sense, is more behind what you're talking about than exceptionalism. We're led by stupid people, but they got there because we've become a people so self centered, so unwilling to consider any sacrifice, no matter how short in duration or significant the societal payoff, that our society is straight up failing.

 

This is a slightly cynical view for someone who used the term "ok boomer".

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

 

[Larry T. Spider 1,740]

56 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

In other election news,

Georgia is starting to narrow in the betting markets. GOP is still in the lead, but it’s getting closer. Georgia might actually be in play sooner than expected.

Texas recently dropped from -600 to -460 on my book. Any recent polls?

[Aqua Buddha 14,504]

 

[honolulu horn 6,157]

30 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

wow.

[gmr548 16,503]

It seems like a lot of pollsters are just polling GA and TX for the first time. For example, there's no previous PPP poll I could find to compare this most recent one to. Between that and the sample (all adults) I'd take that poll with a grain of salt.

Interesting nugget though, among those surveyed, they went 48-43 for Trump in 2016, with 9 percent third party or not voting. If Democrats gained 5 percent in GA in 2016 it would've been a dead heat.

[henrygandorf 29,174]

once again, but it bears repeating, if georgia and texas are close, it doesn't matter which way they fall.  it's over.

[gmr548 16,503]

Also PPP's early June poll of Texas was a 48-48 tie; 50-41-9 for Trump in 16. Not enough of a shift to flip R+9 from 16 but if Texas is within a couple points it's already a laugher.

 

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It seems like a lot of pollsters are just polling GA and TX for the first time. For example, there's no previous PPP poll I could find to compare this most recent one to. Between that and the sample (all adults) I'd take that poll with a grain of salt.

Interesting nugget though, among those surveyed, they went 48-43 for Trump in 2016, with 9 percent third party or not voting. If Democrats gained 5 percent in GA in 2016 it would've been a dead heat.

I’ve mentioned this several times before on this thread, but the 3rd party vote was massive in 2016. It had to have been between 6-8% of the total vote.

now...... will some of these people vote for trump in 2020? Yes, but the vast majority of those votes should go to Biden this time around. Trump hasn’t given anyone who didn’t vote for him in 2016 a reason to turn around and vote for him this time.

the 3rd party margin won’t be nearly as big in 2020. It was an anomaly.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Also PPP's early June poll of Texas was a 48-48 tie; 50-41-9 for Trump in 16. Not enough of a shift to flip R+9 from 16 but if Texas is within a couple points it's already a laugher.

 

 

If Biden lost Texas by 5 or less..... I’d be ecstatic. We need the state to narrow. As the state becomes more competitive, the GOP can’t win with racist bigots Dan Patrick and ken Paxton anymore. Fuck those douchebags.

[TwiceHorn 31,269]

On 6/7/2020 at 11:16 AM, Bateshorn said:

 

Also: If resorting to ad hominem attacks makes you feel better about yourself,  don’t let me stand in your way.

 

Not sure if serious.

[Brisketexan 104,596]

4 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Brutal. 

 

....but fair.

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

4 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Brutal. 
 

Being extremely proud to be an American is stupid and I would've said that under Obama or any other admin. Goes beyond politics. It's raw, unsupported nationalism/ exceptionalism, which is equal parts stupid and dangerous.

Yep.  "Extremely proud" is "unthinking-level" pride, which is almost always fucking stupid.

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

American Exceptionalism is one of the great downfalls of this nation.

And definitely this.  Because it functionally precludes introspection or even considering that there are any real structural flaws that need to be remedied.  Nope, instead, "America, if you don't love it, LEAVE IT!"

What I find amazing from a personal standpoint is my own evolution on the topic.  I considered myself pretty patriotic my whole life.  But over the past 10-12 years, seeing not just what we've become, but what we have actually poured a lot of EFFORT into becoming (or maybe more accurately, REVEALING what was underneath)....not so much.  I've actually been stirred by the sight of the flag in the past.

Now, when I see someone conspicuously flying the American flag, I'm more inclined to think that person is an asshole, flying it as a "fuck you" to anyone who doesn't subscribe to their Trumpist view of the world.

And my kids -- within that 18-29 demographic -- they don't think too highly of our country these days.  And they both do a shitload of their own reading and information consumption, much of it on an international level.  My daughter has all but given up on it.  My son is more interesting....he's hyper-ethical, and I think he's building some serious resolve to work to straighten this shit out.  It's interesting to watch -- he's his own dude, so we'll just have to see how he evolves on it.

[The Dog 43,802]

I didn't see it in the most recent Texas poll, but I think an overlay of voters who split their ticket two years ago Abbott/Beto would be informative. So not only look at who people voted for in 2016, but also 2018 in the governor and senate race. That may give a clearer picture of what the status of the race is in Texas.

 

[Ghost of LL 15,486]

3 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

American Exceptionalism is one of the great downfalls of this nation.

I think the Cold War really fucked us up.  

I mean, I'm not saying that there wasn't a good reason.  The Soviet Union posed an existential threat, not just to America but to freedom throughout the world.

But even so, we overnight abandoned the foreign policy that had guided this country since its foundation.  From Washington's injunction in his farewell address that "It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world" to John Quincy Adams' statement that America "does not go abroad, in search of monsters to destroy," our foreign policy was essentially one of "splendid isolation" (to borrow a term applicable to another great power's foreign policy during the 19th Century).

The Cold War reversed all that.  We adopted numerous permanent alliances.  We traversed the world looking for monsters (only some of which we successfully destroyed).  We went from being a country that had a standing army of fewer than 200,000 in 1939 to a standing army today that is around 1.4 Million.  Those commitments have eaten up our budget.

And none of that shows the cultural impact it had.  The Soviet Union was an aggressively atheistic power.  So we defined ourselves as the opposite.  We added "Under God" to the Pledge.  Don't get me started about "God Bless America."

The Cold War was toxic to America's old conceptualization of itself.  But now, there's a generation who is starting to assert itself that grew up after the end of the Cold War.  They need to assert a little harder, if you ask me.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

4 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think the Cold War really fucked us up.  

I mean, I'm not saying that there wasn't a good reason.  The Soviet Union posed an existential threat, not just to America but to freedom throughout the world.

But even so, we overnight abandoned the foreign policy that had guided this country since its foundation.  From Washington's injunction in his farewell address that "It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of the foreign world" to John Quincy Adams' statement that America "does not go abroad, in search of monsters to destroy," our foreign policy was essentially one of "splendid isolation" (to borrow a term applicable to another great power's foreign policy during the 19th Century).

The Cold War reversed all that.  We adopted numerous permanent alliances.  We traversed the world looking for monsters (only some of which we successfully destroyed).  We went from being a country that had a standing army of fewer than 200,000 in 1939 to a standing army today that is around 1.4 Million.  Those commitments have eaten up our budget.

And none of that shows the cultural impact it had.  The Soviet Union was an aggressively atheistic power.  So we defined ourselves as the opposite.  We added "Under God" to the Pledge.  Don't get me started about "God Bless America."

The Cold War was toxic to America's old conceptualization of itself.  But now, there's a generation who is starting to assert itself that grew up after the end of the Cold War.  They need to assert a little harder, if you ask me.

interesting post.  i think the exponentially increased interconnectedness of the world is more responsible for the geo wash / jqAdams repudiation than the cold war.  you can't have foreign trade at any real scale without interacting with those countries, you can't prepare against japan zipping across the pacific with ill intent without ongoing interactions with foreign countries.  the world is just smaller now by orders of magnitude than it was in the 1700s.  but i don't know if that means we have to actually have these permanent alliances we have now or the large standing military.  they seem to go hand in hand to me though. 

[Biff Tannen 45,492]

12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

But now, there's a generation who is starting to assert itself that grew up after the end of the Cold War.  They need to assert a little harder, if you ask me.

Doing my best man.

[Ghost of LL 15,486]

16 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

interesting post.  i think the exponentially increased interconnectedness of the world is more responsible for the geo wash / jqAdams repudiation than the cold war.  you can't have foreign trade at any real scale without interacting with those countries, you can't prepare against japan zipping across the pacific with ill intent without ongoing interactions with foreign countries.  the world is just smaller now by orders of magnitude than it was in the 1700s.  but i don't know if that means we have to actually have these permanent alliances we have now or the large standing military.  they seem to go hand in hand to me though. 

Switzerland seems to pull it off just fine.  And, to go with a more complex example, India doesn't have the same set of alliances, and yet is plenty interconnected with the world.

And we didn't have alliances before World War II--we didn't have any allies to prepare against Japan zipping across the Pacific.  And that experience is what led to the foundation of NATO, SEATO, ANZUS, and the Rio Treaty to prevent a repeat during the Cold War.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

And we didn't have alliances before World War II--we didn't have any allies to prepare against Japan zipping across the Pacific.  And that experience is what led to the foundation of NATO, SEATO, ANZUS, and the Rio Treaty to prevent a repeat during the Cold War.

that was what i was getting at.  wwii came and really underscored the need for a robust state department/foreign interactions because the world was suddenly so small and dangerous.  that isn't really a reaction to the cold war.  it is just something that is contemporaneous with it.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

I saw a tweet earlier (that I cannot find now) that showed Trump up by 9 points in Mississippi.

He won Mississippi in 2016 by almost 20 points.

If his lead in Mississippi is truly in the single digits, he’s in serious trouble nationwide.

[Pancho 44,470]

They mad