2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What starts here changes the world

That PPP?  They are owned by D right?  Or am I reading that wrong. Essentially is this any different than releasing an internal?   
and I’ve got Trump as low as 2/1 to win Texas so this wouldn’t be a huge shock to me. 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5104]

2 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Awarding Lou Holtz the medal of freedom is the stupidest thing ever. 

No it’s not. It’s not even the stupidest choice by trump for that medal. Rush Limbaugh has one too. 

 

58 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

No fucking way that’s real.  No fucking way. 

Edited November 1, 2020 by NameAlreadyInUse

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That PPP?  They are owned by D right?  Or am I reading that wrong. Essentially is this any different than releasing an internal?   
and I’ve got Trump as low as 2/1 to win Texas so this wouldn’t be a huge shock to me. 

A little better than an internal, but yeah agree. I’m skeptical. Be thrilled though. And it’s achievable. And if Texas flips we get a better GOP overnight. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

2 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

No it’s not. It’s not even the stupidest choice by trump for that medal. Risk Limbaugh has one too. 

 

No fucking way that’s real.  No fucking way. 

Super real.

[Prepuce of Doom 20969]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Doom off the menu?

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:And if Texas flips we get a better GOP overnight. 

Maybe. I hope it goes back to the party of W.  I’m not holding my breath. Dems gonna win anyway so if winning Texas can provide some long term good, good, I guess?  
I just want Texas to stay right of the national polling. As long as that happens IDGAF about anything else from a long term perspective. 
If Texas goes blue I’d give right of center people the same advice for national presidency that I give them for Harris County- abandon the GOP primary and vote strictly in the Dem for your favorite non nut, bc you got no chance of winning a general ever again. 

[Storm the Field 5270]

1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

Yeah, this was the most obvious glaring siren that something was a bit wonky with the Selzer IA poll (aside from the hard to fathom Trump wrecking shop with 18-30 demographic.)

IA-01 is Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, very white but highly college educated. It's the epitome of a 50/50 swing district. Ernst won here by 0.4% 2014. Trump was +3 in 2016. Abby Finkanauer flipped the district blue with a nearly 6 point win in 2018. This would represent an absolutely apocalyptic 20 point shift to the right. There's no fucking way. 

 

[LTbear 4152]

3 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Ahh it’s doom and gloom time!

Starts at 7:00 PM on the weekends.

Today we gain an hour of doom 

[Storm the Field 5270]

On another note, in re that Iowa poll, as Nate Cohn pointed out earlier tonight, if there was a massive swing towards Trump in a state like IA, you'd see hints of it in nearby states.

This year’s Selzer poll looks a lot more like an outlier than the Selzer poll did four years ago. Back then, the Monmouth poll in September showed Mr. Trump up by eight points; this cycle, Monmouth’s poll in October showed Mr. Biden ahead. More broadly, national polling four years ago showed Mr. Trump running very well among white voters without a degree, who are overrepresented in Iowa. This year, polls show Mr. Biden doing far better among white voters without a college degree.

The Biden campaign certainly seems to think it’s doing well. Mr. Biden visited Iowa on Friday, and there’s not really any chance he’d be visiting there if the campaign didn’t think he was tied or ahead. Of course, campaigns have been wrong before. But so has Ms. Selzer.

No other indications of a last-minute surge. There’s another respect in which the Selzer poll is a bit of an outlier: It shows Mr. Trump gaining seven points compared with its prior survey. Four years ago, the Selzer poll was not alone in showing Mr. Trump picking up three points compared with a prior poll in early October, after the first debate.

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Whew.

This sheriff’s victim blaming is something else.

[HenryJames 65868]

35 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

 

[Bateshorn 9882]

Let’s say the Selzer poll is spot on. Which I find difficult to believe: indies swung 20 points in a month?  I mean....Trump won Iowa by 10 in 2016.  If he wins it by 7 in 2020, then he’s lost the upper Midwest almost for sure.  

[Bama Chick 28596]

[Storm the Field 5270]

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

Fraud

[Bateshorn 9882]

3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

This is point no. 1 why I don’t believe in shy trump voters. 

[Francisco 2.0 32290]

2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

 

Social media, Fox, Rush.

When these are your sources of news and other things in the world, your world view becomes pretty cloudy. 

 

 

[ultimaton 2966]

10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

Voter fraud.

I have a cousin that I used to think was an otherwise intelligent person, and as of at least last weekend, he thinks there is a good chance of a Trump sweep. Not just an EC win but literally sweep all 50 states. When I asked: "even California?" His response was: The polls are wrong, people are tired of how Biden handled the riots and virus (!), the economy is the greatest in history, and there is no way Trump can lose unless the election is rigged.

Not just different planets, but different realities.

Edited November 1, 2020 by ultimaton

[Storm the Field 5270]

4 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Social media, Fox, Rush.

When these are your sources of news and other things in the world, your world view becomes pretty cloudy. 

In this case, I think it's more TigerDroppings.

You think TexAgs is a far-right echo chamber? Son, you ain't seen shit.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Thread on the past Republican hackery from the judge assigned to the drive through voting challenge.

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

22 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Whew.

This sheriff’s victim blaming is something else.
 

Let me tell you as a former official of a city in Hays County. Gary Cutler is a piece of shit and his shittiness goes far beyond partisanship.

[The Dog 43771]

If Hays goes as things appear then he's losing his job (just like Chody). 

He's going to be a bit bitter.

[HenryJames 65868]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Let me tell you as a former official of a city in Hays County. Gary Cutler is a piece of shit and his shittiness goes far beyond partisanship.

#humblebrag

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

20 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

I’ve noticed Trumpkins everywhere like this. They’ve been trained in all bluster all the time.  Just puff out your chest and say “it’s going to be a crushing.”  It’s just follow the leader with Trump.  

[Storm the Field 5270]

1 minute ago, ultimaton said:

Voter fraud.

I have a cousin that I used to think was an otherwise intelligent person, and as at least last weekend, he thinks there is a good chance of a Trump sweep. Not just an EC win but literally sweep all 50 states. When I asked: "even California?" His response was: The polls are wrong, people are tired of how Biden handled the riots and virus (!), the economy is the greatest in history, and there is no way Trump can lose unless the election is rigged.

Not just different planets, but different realities.

A fraternity brother of mine, used to be quite good friends with, used to frequently go to Astros games together...etc. Haven't seen him much in the last 2 years, but still see his social media posts.

Got laid off from his O&G job 6 months ago and spends all day now on Twitter, soaking up Q-Anon brain poison and texting people with links to really obscure conspiracy shit. He tweeted out his prediction map yesterday:

Trump 380+. Flips NV, NH, VA, MN, NH, ME, NY, CT and NJ. CA Toss-up. GOP adds at least 5 Senate seats and House majority is GOP +20. 

I just can't even fathom the delusion. Genuinely concerned for the guy.

[Bama Chick 28596]

Texas GOP doubling down on the crazy shit he said to The Texas Tribune.

They’re bragging about it.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

I'm coasting this weekend because I'm going to be litty fuh-gitty on Tuesday night. And the 3 and 5 year old will be up bright and early at 6 AM like clockwork.

Nobody ever told me how little kids love to be up at early like clockwork.  That's the most jarring thing about being a parent with young kids.  Now I understood why my parents made sure I could operate the TV, and had a box of cereal on the kitchen table, so that they could sleep in on Saturday mornings.

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

It’s shit like this that makes it hard to imagine how we avoid a civil war. It’s beyond obvious that the majority of Republicans want one. 

They don't.  For all of their bluster, they couldn't handle wearing a little fucking piece of fabric, they couldn't handle not eating at Applebees or getting their hair cut.  Biggest bunch of fucking snowflakes I've ever seen, and ashamed that I used to be one of them.

An actual civil war means they lose their bank accounts, their power, their internet access, fuel for their vehicles.  If they can't handle going without a fucking haircut from a barber or salon, they can't handle any of that.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe. I hope it goes back to the party of W.  I’m not holding my breath. Dems gonna win anyway so if winning Texas can provide some long term good, good, I guess?  
I just want Texas to stay right of the national polling. As long as that happens IDGAF about anything else from a long term perspective. 
If Texas goes blue I’d give right of center people the same advice for national presidency that I give them for Harris County- abandon the GOP primary and vote strictly in the Dem for your favorite non nut, bc you got no chance of winning a general ever again. 

The party of W was a myth in hindsight, and Iraq gave us a peak behind the curtain.  All of what the GOP claims to have stood for in the past was pretty much a myth - Newt told us as much back in the 90s, it's just we didn't realize it, we thought we were winning one for the little guy in standing up to the Clinton Mafia.  It's a party that only gives a fuck about their richest donors.  They just did a good job of conning a lot of us younger folks in Texas back in the 80s and 90s.

The Texas GOP needs to fall apart, and be completely rebuilt as an actual party of conservatives.

The good news is, the Texas GOP is looking to start eating its own soon.  We've already seen Paxton/Patrick/etc. turning against Abbott.  We've seen Patrick laying the groundwork to sideline George P. Bush.  And they all realize that Paxton is dead weight and needs to go, they just haven't figured out how to keep the Dems from jumping into that void in 2022 (or who can fill that void).  And if the Dems take the House in Texas, you'll see things go into an absolutely feeding frenzy.

It's going to be glorious that a fucking Maryland born-and-raised carpet bagger is potentially going to help wreck everything.

[Bama Chick 28596]

SNL next week is going to be something next week no matter how this thing goes.

[Storm the Field 5270]

Some random Twitter account tweeted out earlier tonight that ABC/WAPO was about to release some bad polls for Biden. Liberal Twitter, as always, freaked the fuck out.

Well here are those "terrible" results:

FL: Trump +2 (50-48). +2 Biden since last round

PA: Biden +7 (51-44). +2 Trump since last round.

Statistical noise with no real overall change. What a disaster!

[Cairn Horn88 8148]

38 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

Apparently, they are not nearly as educated as you think.  Just saying.

[The Dog 43771]

6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Some random Twitter account tweeted out earlier tonight that ABC/WAPO was about to release some bad polls for Biden. Liberal Twitter, as always, freaked the fuck out.

Well here are those "terrible" results:

FL: Trump +2 (50-48). +2 Biden since last round

PA: Biden +7 (51-44). +2 Trump since last round.

Statistical noise with no real overall change. What a disaster!

Not fake - has Trump +2 in Florida and Biden +7 in Pennsylvania.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a62020StateBattlegrounds-FLPA.pdf

Edited November 1, 2020 by The Dog

[Storm the Field 5270]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Not fake - has Trump +2 in Florida and Biden +7 in Pennsylvania.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a62020StateBattlegrounds-FLPA.pdf

Read post again and find where the word "fake" appears.

[The Dog 43771]

Just now, Storm the Field said:

Read post again and find where the word "fake" appears.

Sorry wasn't my intent - just confirming what the "random" twitter account was saying. 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5104]

20 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Texas GOP doubling down on the crazy shit he said to The Texas Tribune.

They’re bragging about it.


 

The Texas GOP is living in a land that doesn’t exist. I’m flabbergasted this is real. It’s like they elected Sara Huckabee’s crazy uncle to be in charge. How much further will it go before rational Republicans wake up and tell their team to get their shit together?  Does it happen at all?

[thepop 4409]

Basically 

 

[The Dog 43771]

ABC is an A+ pollster but they said Biden was up +17 in Wisconsin.

It's silly season for the next 72 hours.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

ABC is an A+ pollster but they said Biden was up +17 in Wisconsin.
It's silly season for the next 72 hours.

A poll’s MOE is the MOE at a 95% confidence. That means that 1 out of 20 polls should be expected to be outside the MOE.

We just have so many polls out right now that you’re going to see some of that 5% that are outside the MOE. And frankly, it’s good that we see those, because it indicates that pollsters are playing it straight and aren’t herding.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Dog 43771]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

A poll’s MOE is the MOE at a 95% confidence. That means that 1 out of 20 polls should be expected to be outside the MOE.

We just have so many polls out right now that you’re going to see some of that 5% that are outside the MOE. And frankly, it’s good that we see those, because it indicates that pollsters are playing it straight and aren’t herding.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Stop quoting Nate Silver dude you and I listen to the same podcasts.

[Sawbonz 27375]

3 hours ago, Eastwood said:

I'm coasting this weekend because I'm going to be litty fuh-gitty on Tuesday night. And the 3 and 5 year old will be up bright and early at 6 AM like clockwork.

5 AM. DST ends tonight

[Ghost of LL 15348]

Stop quoting Nate Silver dude you and I listen to the same podcasts.

I haven’t ever heard him talk about confidence level (though I wish he would). That’s from Prof Shaw’s class at UT.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[The Dog 43771]

1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

I haven’t ever heard him talk about confidence level (though I wish he would). That’s from Prof Shaw’s class at UT.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

dat shit too complicated for most people.

[TexEx15 17444]

 

[Eastwood 4394]

3 hours ago, horncyclist said:

5 AM, time change. Less you accounted for that.

 

10 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

5 AM. DST ends tonight

Thanks for twisting the knife.

[The Dog 43771]

6 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Reminder: Hillabeast lost Williamson and Hays.

[Texas73 420]

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Reminder: Hillabeast lost Williamson and Hays.

Who the fuck cares?

[Valmy77 13092]

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Reminder: Hillabeast lost Williamson and Hays.

True statement.

So what are you saying? That Biden will win these this time showing this is evidence this claim is true OR are you saying this indicates that Trump will outperform Ted Cruz and be able to win those counties again? Or something else?

[The Dog 43771]

Idiots.

What’s the trend?