2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

38 minutes ago, BNB said:

Your constant attacks on conservatism as racist, 

I know most conservatives don’t consider themselves racist but when a party elevates racists, refuses to marginalize racist groups, and enacts racist policies, it’s basically the duty of everyone else to marginalize that party wholesale, without nuance b/c now we’re dealing with shit that leads to genocide and that will not stand. 

[wildcat09 29187]

19 minutes ago, Pancho said:

As stated by someone on this board a few weeks ago (which I really want to go back and rep them because I’ve been using this statement nonstop for weeks now):

Not all trump supporters are racist, but 100% of them believe racism isn’t a dealbreaker. 

You may not be racist, but you support the radical right wing trump and his people who are racist, so that on some levels makes you worse of a person.

There are a lot of “conservatives” who in normal times wouldn’t be nazis, but if thrust into a particular context, say, Germany in the late 1920s/early 1930s, would’ve been.

They’ve found themselves in that context now, and it’s no surprise that suddenly everyone they get their news from and look to for opinions are nazi-adjacent (Tucker, Tim Pool, Andy Ngo, etc.). It’s no surprise they think the greatest threat to their conception of America is antifascism. It’s no surprise that they’re making common cause with nazis. It’s because the conditions are ripe for fascism and they’re the type of people who, when conditions for fascism are ripe, will ecstatically embrace it. 
 

They weren’t nazis ten years ago, but they are now.

Edited November 1, 2020 by wildcat09

[Bozo_Casanova 26232]

9 hours ago, HenryJames said:

#humblebrag

You’re half right

[The Dog 43771]

51 minutes ago, Kermit said:

He’s running unopposed. 

Well, shit.

[heso 2748]

Where did the concept of the shy trump voter come from? It seems like it has to be nothing more than a creation of the trumpers to allow them to square their insistence of a trump landslide with polling that shows anything but that landslide.

the polling underrepresented the uneducated whites in 2016. That makes sense and the polls claim that they’ve accounted for that (I’m hoping that they over corrected by a couple points). 

So we’re to believe that there is 5-6% of polled respondents are either embarrassed to admit or intentionally being deceptive about voting for Trump?

Seems like bullshit. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I know most conservatives don’t consider themselves racist but when a party elevates racists, refuses to marginalize racist groups, and enacts racist policies, it’s basically the duty of everyone else to marginalize that party wholesale, without nuance b/c now we’re dealing with shit that leads to genocide and that will not stand. 

That phrase: "self-deceptive innocence" comes to mind a lot lately.

@wildcat09 the segment of the population that embraces 'wealth discipline' (the wealthy have more self-discipline and should therefore be in control--it applies to race as well. SEE: Jared Kushner--How to Insult Americans Without Really Trying) and authoritarian worldviews have been following the GOP playbook from top to bottom. Trickle down economics is a failure, but this one they seem to have made work.

[HenryJames 65868]

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

6 minutes ago, heso said:

Where did the concept of the shy trump voter come from? It seems like it has to be nothing more than a creation of the trumpers to allow them to square their insistence of a trump landslide with polling that shows anything but that landslide.

 

Yes, it was intentional by the leadership. Cannot sow doubt as that leads to defection. The Biden team were making inroads on appealing to the empathetic nature of people: the 'that's not who we are campaign'. The shy Trump voter scenario maintains the aggrieved victim framework that the GOP is targeting. It's a tug of war.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
typo

[gmr548 16463]

Just talking with my friend in NY,
"People throw rocks at you while driving if they see trump bumper sticker "
 
It will be a close election, but don't be surprised if Trump wins, Your constant attacks on conservatism as racist, etc. has made us silent, except for our vote.

A victim complex that makes aggy blush

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

2 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Hopefully that translates into the actual meaningful election polls/results and isn't just a make us feel good meaningless popularity poll

[TexEx15 17444]

 

[The Dog 43771]

3 minutes ago, heso said:

Where did the concept of the shy trump voter come from?

It's about "social desirability bias". Trump supporters - at least back then - were more likely to not tell anyone their vote due to social pressure. I don't think it really skewed the polls that much but IMHO it also happened when Obama was running and was president. The left is very quick to accuse someone of being racist/sexist for not supporting their candidate, and when someone is supporting someone like Trump it's an even easier accusation to make and for it to stick. 

Also, it's the belief that people who were always going to vote for Trump were telling pollsters that they were undecided or were voting third party. There are some on this very board who still subscribe to this theory and even believe that Trumpers are telling pollsters that they are voting for Biden when they are actually voting for Trump. 

9 minutes ago, heso said:

the polling underrepresented the uneducated whites in 2016. That makes sense and the polls claim that they’ve accounted for that (I’m hoping that they over corrected by a couple points). 

It did, AND there were a crapton of undecideds who made up their minds in the final days. 

Something to notice - all of the big polling firms are releasing polls just days before the election. They didn't do that four years ago. For example, the last NYT poll for Pennsylvania was released something like 3 weeks prior to the election. Monmouth's was releases 2 weeks prior. They clearly missed the late deciders. That's not happening this year. 

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

2 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

Of all the polls I’ve seen all season long the NYT/Upshot poll has been the one I’ve found myself most nodding my head to. It’s probably one of the more pro trump polls out there that’s an actual poll as opposed to the nonsense that Trafalgar or Ras make up. WI 17 and other stuff like that (Biden 14) always seemed like nonsense to me. 
I think there is the possibility that the NYT poll is slightly too Trump and the actual vote ends up a little left of where they are. 
All of this to say- these polls clearly sink his battleship. 

[Bojack 2073]

10 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Whew.

This sheriff’s victim blaming is something else.
 

"The planning of this was questionable.  They were hoarding gasoline.  Lord Qumungus had no choice but to unleash his dogs of war."  That's the rest of the quote, probably.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13391]

2 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Hopefully that translates into the actual meaningful election polls/results and isn't just a make us feel good meaningless popularity poll

Obviously the popular winner is itself meaningless but a national popular poll isn’t meaning less and has some correlation to state polls and eventual results.

It seems extremely unlikely that Biden will win nationally by 10% but lose the EC. Mathematically possible but unlikely.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 minute ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Hopefully that translates into the actual meaningful election polls/results and isn't just a make us feel good meaningless popularity poll

Today I will happily take a feel good meaningless poll. The Trump rallies will commence at 10:00 AM (CDT I believe).

Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, and Florida today.

[Storm the Field 5270]

7 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Hopefully that translates into the actual meaningful election polls/results and isn't just a make us feel good meaningless popularity poll

It's pretty much impossible to lose the Electoral College in a scenario where you win the popular vote by anywhere even close to 10.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Storm the Field

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

It's about "social desirability bias". Trump supporters - at least back then - were more likely to not tell anyone their vote due to social pressure. I don't think it really skewed the polls that much but IMHO it also happened when Obama was running and was president. The left is very quick to accuse someone of being racist/sexist for not supporting their candidate, and when someone is supporting someone like Trump it's an even easier accusation to make and for it to stick. 

Also, it's the belief that people who were always going to vote for Trump were telling pollsters that they were undecided or were voting third party. There are some on this very board who still subscribe to this theory and even believe that Trumpers are telling pollsters that they are voting for Biden when they are actually voting for Trump. 

It did, AND there were a crapton of undecideds who made up their minds in the final days. 

Something to notice - all of the big polling firms are releasing polls just days before the election. They didn't do that four years ago. For example, the last NYT poll for Pennsylvania was released something like 3 weeks prior to the election. Monmouth's was releases 2 weeks prior. They clearly missed the late deciders. That's not happening this year. 

The idea of the ‘shy Trump voter’ has been debunked by just about every pollster and social scientist who studied 2016 to figure out what happened.  

Like you pointed out - a big part of the problem were a lack of timely high-quality state and district level polls.

 

Add in the fact that a lot of undecideds broke towards Trump because of Clinton’s high-unfavorables and the FBI investigation and you have a recipe for the orange shit-gibbon winning a handful of states by just thousands of votes nd an EC victory. 

Thats not happening this year. 

[TexEx15 17444]

Have to imagine NPA breaks in Biden’s favor.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

It's pretty much impossible to lose the Electoral College in a scenario where you win the popular vote by anywhere even close to 10.

Totally agree, but 2020 has sucked like no tomorrow... no reason to test it more. I just don't want Florida or Iowa or some small ass state to have us waiting and wondering come Wednesday... I want enough writing on the wall to go... damn... this wasn't about people liking Biden but wow they really don't want Trump for four more years

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

Just now, TexEx15 said:

Have to imagine NPA breaks in Biden’s favor.

Have to also think about Zero Dems breaking and some GOPers I think will  break

[The Dog 43771]

1 minute ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

The idea of the ‘shy Trump voter’ has been debunked by just about every pollster and social scientist who studied 2016 to figure out what happened.  

 

I was only explaining the theory. Not its merits.

In other news, Nate Cohn calls his shot:

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

Have to imagine NPA breaks in Biden’s favor.

Also have to believe that at least a decent amount of registered republican olds have flipped to vote Biden this year without changing their party affiliation. 

My MIL has said this feels like the 60’s again and that a sizeable portion of the olds like her are casting protest votes against Trump. 

[TwiceHorn 31184]

11 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

The idea of the ‘shy Trump voter’ has been debunked by just about every pollster and social scientist who studied 2016 to figure out what happened.  

Like you pointed out - a big part of the problem were a lack of timely high-quality state and district level polls.

 

Add in the fact that a lot of undecideds broke towards Trump because of Clinton’s high-unfavorables and the FBI investigation and you have a recipe for the orange shit-gibbon winning a handful of states by just thousands of votes nd an EC victory. 

Thats not happening this year. 

Don't forget the enormous third-party vote.  That ain't happening again.

Edited November 1, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[tantric superman 4667]

Dear Lord, please let this board be filled with threads a week from now bitching about how Biden is going to really fuck things up.

[BradInATX 9208]

The idea of the ‘shy Trump voter’ has been debunked by just about every pollster and social scientist who studied 2016 to figure out what happened.  
Like you pointed out - a big part of the problem were a lack of timely high-quality state and district level polls.
 
Add in the fact that a lot of undecideds broke towards Trump because of Clinton’s high-unfavorables and the FBI investigation and you have a recipe for the orange shit-gibbon winning a handful of states by just thousands of votes nd an EC victory. 
Thats not happening this year. 

This exactly. Clinton hit her polling numbers on a state by state basis. Problem is a huge majority of undecideds broke for Trump.

That's all irrelevant when one candidate has over 50%. And Biden is there is the important swing states save Florida.

[Bateshorn 9882]

9 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Also have to believe that at least a decent amount of registered republican olds have flipped to vote Biden this year without changing their party affiliation. 

My MIL has said this feels like the 60’s again and that a sizeable portion of the olds like her are casting protest votes against Trump. 

 

12 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Totally agree, but 2020 has sucked like no tomorrow... no reason to test it more. I just don't want Florida or Iowa or some small ass state to have us waiting and wondering come Wednesday... I want enough writing on the wall to go... damn... this wasn't about people liking Biden but wow they really don't want Trump for four more years

There’s a couple of different things at play:  as Rachel Bitecofer points out, there is no more powerful drug than negative partisanship.  It’s the pure Bolivian blow of politics. Negative partisanship among Democrats is off the chain.  It guarantees every last one of them is going to vote, donate, text/call.  The GOP had it in 94 and 2010.  
 

The second is Florida specific:  all Biden really needs is to approximate the Clinton vote in south Florida, pull some more woman who might have YOLO’d Trump/NV in Orlando, and most importantly knock Trump’s margins in the Villages from 70/30 to more like 60/40, and he’ll win FL.  All of those are very doable.  There’s a reason they keep sending Pence back to the Villages: Trump is personally unpopular and it’s the key to GOP Winning in America’s limp dong.

What is unique in this election in my lifetime is Biden is doing better among likely voters than registered voters.  I’ve never seen that before. To me, it’s a telling indicator along with generic congressional ballot of where the mind of the body politic is right now.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Bateshorn

[SizzleChest 8275]

Lulz.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

IIRC, Biden is spending today and tomorrow in Pennsylvania. Hopefully they can keep chipping away.

[tantric superman 4667]

12 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Also have to believe that at least a decent amount of registered republican olds have flipped to vote Biden this year without changing their party affiliation. 

It's fine if you think you have to believe that to get by, but I think Republican olds on the whole "don't like the way Trump talks or acts" but will all vote for him.

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

5 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Lulz.

 

I guess they just want to be different?  What is it, the NYPost, the National Enquirer, and now the Post-Gazette endorsing Trump?

[Hank Kingsley 20635]

7 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Lulz.

 

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

Just now, tantric superman said:

It's fine if you think you have to believe that to get by, but I think Republican olds on the whole "don't like the way Trump talks or acts" but will all vote for him.

I would generally agree with you - except that my kids haven’t hugged their grandma in 7 months. I think Trump and the republican surrender to COVID and the willingness (publicly) to sacrifice the olds to the economy is going to be a deciding factor for many olds. 

[Irieguy 1059]

1 hour ago, BNB said:

Just talking with my friend in NY,

"People throw rocks at you while driving if they see trump bumper sticker "

 

It will be a close election, but don't be surprised if Trump wins, Your constant attacks on conservatism as racist, etc. has made us silent, except for our vote.

Also I heard that if you flash your lights at a car with their lights turned off, MS13 kills your whole family. It’s a gang initiation thing!!!! PLZ FORWARD!!!!!

[Neonmoon 38127]

7 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Right wingers have been buying up local news outlets for years to control the message 

[wildcat09 29187]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

Right wingers have been buying up local news outlets for years to control the message 

Yeah, that’s the paper that wouldn’t let it’s black reporters cover the George Floyd protests this summer.

[Ghost of LL 15348]

Have to imagine NPA breaks in Biden’s favor.

Party registration is a poor proxy for a vote, because people register as partisans for very different reasons than they vote for individual candidates.

That being said, I’m not mad at this numbers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NorthLoop 14071]

1 hour ago, BNB said:

Just talking with my friend in NY,

"People throw rocks at you while driving if they see trump bumper sticker "

 

It will be a close election, but don't be surprised if Trump wins, Your constant attacks on conservatism as racist, etc. has made us silent, except for our vote.

Did your friend once have a dog named Rusty.?

[heso 2748]

14 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

The Post-Gazette's once liberal editorial tone shifted more conservative following the 2018 consolidation of its editorial department with that of longtime sister newspaper The Blade of Toledo, Ohio, and the appointment of that paper's editorial page editor Keith Burris, a frequent defender of Donald Trump, to direct the editorial pages of both papers.[3] Burris assumed the additional position of executive editor of the Post-Gazette in 2019.

[BradInATX 9208]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1322912061018525698

Two takeaways:
- As predicted by most of us the majority of "undecideds" are simply ashamed Trump voters.
- No big deal and expected. As long as Biden stays above 50 in swing states (and he is), it doesn't matter how many undecideds break for Trump.

[quigley 1523]

13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Right wingers have been buying up local news outlets for years to control the message 

RE: Pittsburgh PG

from wikipedia:

"In 2018, the editorial tone of the paper shifted from liberal to conservative after the editorial pages of the paper were consolidated with the The Blade of Toledo, Ohio. After the consolidation, Keith Burris, the pro-Trump editorial page editor of The Blade, directed he editorial pages of both papers."

[The Dog 43771]

9 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

- As predicted by most of us the majority of "undecideds" are simply ashamed Trump voters.

That's not what the tweet says. Stop.

[BradInATX 9208]

That's not what the tweet says. Stop.

Trump's pre-debate national number was 43ish. His approval is 44. Trump going from 41 percent back to the 43s represents the couple percent of people turned off by the debates and his recent lunacy coming back home.

What do you disagree with? Make a point.

[The Dog 43771]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

 

Trump's pre-debate national number was 43ish. His approval is 44. Trump going from 41 percent back to the 43s represents the couple percent of people turned off by the debates and his recent lunacy coming back home.

What do you disagree with? Make a point.

 

You said: "the majority of undecideds are simply ashamed Trump voters."

That's not correct and not supported by the data in the tweet. It does say that SOME undecideds swung to Trump, but it's certainly not a majority and the idea that "shy Trump voters" were hiding there was already debunked earlier in this thread. 

It read like you were fishing for reasons for Biden supporters to be worried. 

That's the point.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

You said: "the majority of undecideds are simply ashamed Trump voters."
That's not correct and not supported by the data in the tweet. It does say that SOME undecideds swung to Trump, but it's certainly not a majority and the idea that "shy Trump voters" were hiding there was already debunked earlier in this thread. 
It read like you were fishing for reasons for Biden supporters to be worried. 
That's the point.
 

Trump has scooped up two percentage points very recently while Biden is flat.

How is that not the majority of undecideds breaking for Trump? Weird argument you're making.

[Irieguy 1059]

2 hours ago, Kermit said:

I’ve never seen a silent Trumper. 

Be careful, they can be deadly. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[Mo Horn 8795]

 

[Dahobbs 17420]

Bit of sunshine:

 

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

2 hours ago, BNB said:

Just talking with my friend in NY,

"People throw rocks at you while driving if they see trump bumper sticker "

 

It will be a close election, but don't be surprised if Trump wins, Your constant attacks on conservatism as racist, etc. has made us silent, except for our vote.

Fucking galaxy brain shit here