2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Sbbruin 21704]

4 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I like to read the politics board on here, TexAgs, and SicEm365. I've never seen such a wider disconnect between reality. The conservative boards are 100%sure that there will be a large Trump victory even in the popular vote. We are more cautious in saying we're going to win, but I don't think there are any of us that doubts Biden will win the popular vote. There's going to be some really shocked people out there.

My BIL and his Trumper Louisiana wife are of this mindset, and they live in California.   Mind you they are in the Orange bubble down in San Clemente, but still.  They honestly think there's no way Trump loses unless there's massive election fraud.  It's baffling.  It's as if every national poll showing Biden leading significantly are all part of some big damn conspiracy

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

11 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Does not scan. Supposed to be 5 syllables, then 7, then 5 again. 2 / 10 awarded by the judge.

Ha. I fixed it before you posted but not in time I guess. Had fat finger- iPhone problems. 

[burntorangebongos 10681]

This woman is a progressive with brains and a vision. She helped find a path for Biden to win this state and flip it and it is a very likely possibility. She doesn't strike me as someone who would have a plan to make changes in a way that would splinter the party, it can be done. In the meantime, she intends to be the governor of Georgia. Let's see what she can do there. I imagine she will unfuck much of the twisted shenanigans wrought by the republicans of her state. Beto should follow her playbook in Texas and run for Governor.

 

Edited November 2, 2020 by burntorangebongos

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

2 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

My BIL and his Trumper Louisiana wife are of this mindset, and they live in California.   Mind you they are in the Orange bubble down in San Clemente, but still.  They honestly think there's no way Trump loses unless there's massive election fraud.  It's baffling.  It's as if every national poll showing Biden leading significantly are all part of some big damn conspiracy

i think it is all learned behavior.  sort of power of positive thinking thing.  trump only says things are great for his side at all times, never express any doubt.  his legion follow suit, objective facts be damned.

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

10 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I like to read the politics board on here, TexAgs, and SicEm365. I've never seen such a wider disconnect between reality. The conservative boards are 100%sure that there will be a large Trump victory even in the popular vote. We are more cautious in saying we're going to win, but I don't think there are any of us that doubts Biden will win the popular vote. There's going to be some really shocked people out there.

The disconnect between me and basically everyone in my life in this is staggering. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[Horn Dogg 3807]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Oops. Misfire. Meant 1995.

Yeah, I know.  It just felt good to write about Vince and co beating everyone!

[TexArcher 37506]

I just talked to a Trumpkin colleague who is seriously worried about a horde of pissed off liberals attacking her home on Wednesday.

I said, "Nah, they'll be celebrating in their own neighborhoods."

 

Was that wrong?  Should I not have done that?

 

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

6 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

yeah.  George P. has already thrown his support to Trump. he's gone full Trumpster.  he thinks that's the way to win in Texas.  so Jeb and George W. aren't gonna cut George P.'s knees out from under him. at least not publicly.

funny thing is, if Texas turns blue in 2020 (or more likely in 2022/2024), then George P. should be stuck with the Scarlett MAGA on his chest.

Yep. He had a lane open to him. Put your head down. Don’t get on the trump train. Coast on name recognition in shitty down ballot races. Pop back up as a return to normal act. And being 1/2 Hispanic. New GOP. Back to the days of the old gop but this time with more minority representation. 

[Mo Horn 8807]

Any idea when we're supposed to get Hanen's ruling on the curbside voting? 

[Storm the Field 5271]

Crystal Ball group did their final "no toss ups" projections:

Biden 321, Trump 217 (Biden sweeps blue wall, NC, GA, and AZ. FL, TX, IA and OH stay red.)

50-48 DEM Senate with both GA races headed for runoff. (DEMS pick up CO, AZ, NC and ME. Lose AL).

DEM +8 to House Majority (243-192). 

Kicker:

Quote

 

Is it possible that Donald Trump will win a second term as president?

Yes.

Do the data point to that happening?

No.

As we survey the political landscape a day before the election, we see a race that has largely been steady. Even before he was the Democratic nominee, Joe Biden seemed like the strongest potential challenger to Donald Trump. Perhaps that said more about the Democratic field than Biden himself, and he is hardly an inspiring candidate, but the former vice president has been able to bring together the Democratic Party’s warring factions — at least for now — and keep the focus of the election on the sitting president. A worldwide pandemic challenged Trump’s mettle — and he is in a considerably weaker position because of it.

We have kept looking for indicators that the president was catching up. It is likely the case that the president was in worse shape in the aftermath of the first debate and his hospitalization for COVID-19 than he is now, but it’s really just a question of the size of his deficit. Both our Democratic and Republican sources generally see Biden as a strong favorite to surpass the requisite 270 electoral votes to win.

 

 

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

19 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is semantics but I feel like Mussolini’s black shirts were the original and the nazis ripped them off.  

Yeah. I'm just not sure who Tom Osborne was getting his inspiration from. My gut says Hitler, but maybe it was Mussolini.

Edited November 2, 2020 by The Hot Dog Buffet

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

12 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I like to read the politics board on here, TexAgs, and SicEm365. I've never seen such a wide disconnect between reality. The conservative boards are 100% sure that there will be a large Trump victory even in the popular vote. We are more cautious in saying we're going to win, but I don't think there are any of us that doubts Biden will win the popular vote. There's going to be some really shocked people out there.

We went through this with the 2018 midterms. The MAGAs were predicting a huge Red Wave, the opposite happened. So, instead of learning from that delusion, they’re doubling down on magical thinking. Hopefully it’s a clean sweep this time. 

[Sbbruin 21704]

17 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I like to read the politics board on here, TexAgs, 

OMG, I just spent 10 minutes on the TexAgs politics board.  That is some scary ass shit.  

[Francisco 2.0 32313]

Just now, Sbbruin said:

OMG, I just spent 10 minutes on the TexAgs politics board.  That is some scary ass shit.  

Assuming a Biden win, wait a few days.  I'm sure there will be open assassination talk.

 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

 

Interesting, but as the comments note, he doesn’t tell us what the baseline is  

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21044]

8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

so fucking clueless

[bad_teammate 13132]

If Biden has the Senate and House he needs to institute MASSIVE democratic reforms immediately.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If Biden has the Senate and House he needs to institute MASSIVE democratic reforms immediately.

b_t on top of things

[South Austin 52105]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

Now tell us about your Wendesday. Because Im pretty sure mine is going to be fucking useless. 

No calls scheduled until 1pm.  Should shake off the hangover by then.

[SimonBolivar 10910]

3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If Biden has the Senate and House he needs to institute MASSIVE democratic reforms immediately.

Come one @bad_teammate you are smarter than this. We'll be too scared to lose power in 2022 and end up doing nothing of substance outside of rolling back Trumpism.

[The Dog 43784]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

Interesting, but as the comments note, he doesn’t tell us what the baseline is  

 

Yeah not giving the baseline is bullshit.

[Sbbruin 21704]

3 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Assuming a Biden win, wait a few days.  I'm sure there will be open assassination talk.

 

 

From what I'm reading (I can't help but continue down the rabbit hole), I have zero doubt that you are correct.

[Dbeasy 14961]

This race shouldn’t be this close. Trump is the worst candidate in history. I still can’t believe the Democrats couldn’t run a messaging campaign that showed all the prominent people that abandoned him, along with all of the twitter lies. That should have been powerful.

[Valmy77 13093]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Yeah not giving the baseline is bullshit.

I would guess 65% based on passed elections.

[Francisco 2.0 32313]

Just now, Dbeasy said:

This race shouldn’t be this close. Trump is the worst candidate in history. I still can’t believe the Democrats couldn’t run a messaging campaign that showed all the prominent people that abandoned him, along with all of the twitter lies. That should have been powerful.

 

Correct, it shouldn't be.  But Trump showed a significant portion of our populace that it's cool to be a white nationalist.  So here we are.

 

 

[bad_teammate 13132]

2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

Come one @bad_teammate you are smarter than this. We'll be too scared to lose power in 2022 and end up doing nothing of substance outside of rolling back Trumpism.

You don't need to tell me.

Biden's first concern will be figuring out how many cabinet positions to give Republicans and taking as many calls as he can with Senate Minority Leader McConnell to figure out how to restore HONOR and DIGNITY to his beloved Senate. Will promise not to pack the court or nuke the filibuster in exchange for a Double Pinky Promise to be reasonable and compromise.

And then while I'm losing my god damned mind here I'll be told to not let great be the enemy of good.

[Valmy77 13093]

Just now, Dbeasy said:

This race shouldn’t be this close. Trump is the worst candidate in history. I still can’t believe the Democrats couldn’t run a messaging campaign that showed all the prominent people that abandoned him, along with all of the twitter lies. That should have been powerful.

It's too cultural now. Giant landslides for either side are not going to happen in the current political alignment.

[RomaVicta 29769]

4 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Trafalgar seems legit.

How devastating and far-reaching is their criminal conspiracy that they can get so many people to lie in order to bring on a violent uprising?

Hannity has his hand in the trough which can be surmised from his association with Michael Cohen that he denied. Is all of FOX involved? I have to think they must be at the highest level of their organization. The NRA is the only right wing group we know took Russian money to funnel to the GOP, but it would be naive to assume they're the only one to do so. That taped recording with Paul Ryan and other GOPs where they mention Russia, laugh, and then caution each other to be quiet is damning even if long lost in the shit tsunami of daily Republican horrors.

I'm not drinking this morning, I'm just trying to read the moves. How bad would it have to be for me to willfully incite the possibly fatal disruption of the republic and the death of my fellow citizens? What criminal punishment would scare me to that degree?

We've thrown the word treason around quite a bit. I don't think it's hyperbole. I don't think it's been meant as hyperbole, but maybe we've become numb to the implications of how real that charge may be. 

I see the grab for power being desperate enough that GOPs are afraid of the noose. Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel? MAGA is the last fortress of the traitor. A rebuild of the DOJ with competent, unbiased appointees is their nightmare.

If they fail in the actual election, fail in the courts, fail in an uprising, then their last hope will be that enough Dems are dirty that they'll be afraid of the public light. I don't see the Dems as particularly virtuous, but I think the GOPs have hogged all the foreign money for themselves. They sure seem scared.

I don't believe I'm being alarmist. I will not be happy if the worst case unfolds. Please be calling me an idiot in a week.

But the feel of this gets worse and worse. The instigators deserve the worst that can happen to them.

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

27 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

I like to read the politics board on here, TexAgs, and SicEm365. I've never seen such a wide disconnect between reality. The conservative boards are 100% sure that there will be a large Trump victory even in the popular vote. We are more cautious in saying we're going to win, but I don't think there are any of us that doubts Biden will win the popular vote. There's going to be some really shocked people out there.

You are right.  I think we all know people who are in complete denial and some of them will not like how tomorrow goes down.  My mother is completely flabbergasted when I told her Biden would win (likely easily) but she's a 75 year old Baptist in Oklahoma so there's that.  She said none of her friends think Biden can win.

What will be interesting is turnout tomorrow.  I personally don't think there's a lot left out there.  The Trumpers that we all know believe there's this giant wave out there but have you noticed they've already voted themselves?  Oklahoma only had a few days of early voting and there was huge turnout.  Lines of 2-3 hours and that's not exactly a liberal hotbed.

Trumpkins have likely already voted in key states and we'll know a lot by noon.  If that holds, tomorrow night will be a butt fucking.

[Hefeweizen 5307]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Nothing will change. 

Only because cozy bear writes you checks?

I actually agree, I don’t see any trumpers changing their mind.  It will be victim hood dialed to 11 after the election.

[TexasEd 8064]

17 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Maybe the village people are the only ones that let him play their songs on credit.

That and the irony of it is hilarious.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

11 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If Biden has the Senate and House he needs to institute MASSIVE democratic reforms immediately.

Yes. Ludicrous speed. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

9 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If Biden has the Senate and House he needs to institute MASSIVE democratic reforms immediately.

Especially if he knows he won’t be seeking re-election. If he can bang out some repeals and advancements on things, it will be years later and a different candidate before it becomes an issue for the next presidential.  If things are bad, dems can distance from some of the policy. 

[Valmy77 13093]

Trafalgar's polling shows a very tight race Pennsylvania, even as a right leaning outlier. What the hell is he talking about? If his poll is even off by 1% that is proof of something?

[Storm the Field 5271]

Rasmussen playing both sides of the field as usual. Their national numbers have Trump at 52% approval and trailing by just a point in the national head to head (48-47). However, they just released Biden +4 (49-45) in PA (or +3, 50-47 with leaners). 

Guarantee they're gonna claim vindication if Biden wins but only gets between 270-290 EV. despite a 6+% pop vote win. "We correctly showed Trump making it a much closer race than the MSM polls and were dead-on with our prediction of a narrow Biden win."

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

6 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Correct, it shouldn't be.  But Trump showed a significant portion of our populace that it's cool to be a white nationalist.  So here we are.

 

 

The larger issue is how many Americans felt liberated by that. 

[Valmy77 13093]

Yeah Rasmussen is claiming that 4% of the population thinks Trump is doing a great job but are not going to vote for him. That makes tons of sense guys.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

2 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Trafalgar's polling shows a very tight race Pennsylvania, even as a right leaning outlier. What the hell is he talking about? If his poll is even off by 1% that is proof of something?

trafalgar is just noise.  they might as well just skip talking to people part and type up the results they want.

 

 

will you look at that! the Behold!gar poll shows Goldwater beating William Randolph Hearst by 78 in KY!   

(n=a guy name bill i talked to)

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

2 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

i expect rurals to come out big everywhere.  i think those truck rallies are effective at engagement.  no sarcasm.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

5 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

You don't need to tell me.

Biden's first concern will be figuring out how many cabinet positions to give Republicans and taking as many calls as he can with Senate Minority Leader McConnell to figure out how to restore HONOR and DIGNITY to his beloved Senate. Will promise not to pack the court or nuke the filibuster in exchange for a Double Pinky Promise to be reasonable and compromise.

And then while I'm losing my god damned mind here I'll be told to not let great be the enemy of good.

Something I learned in the Trump Era is if you do all your ambitious stuff early, it won’t be a political liability come election time b/c the electorate has an attention span of a toddler.  

Like no one is talking about how Trump shut the government down over a month for his border wall money when the democrats took the house in 2018.  That was a devastating loss for Trump but few remember it and there were no political consequences. 

The media narratives change so fast that you can survive almost anything if you do it quickly. 

[Tigersnake 670]

2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Show me the path to election victories Reps have w/out their stupid, racist, poor white-trash base?  Without trumpism, they go away. 

The big money types will have an astroturf movement created by their pros and then bankroll the heck out of it. They're very good at it, when they are in opposition. Contract with America, Tea Party.  The dumb shits waving Trump flags were all wearing tri-corner hats and buckled shoes 10 years ago, pretending they had even once read the Constitution. Now they get to roll coal and wave their truck nuts at Biden buses, which is more fun, but they'll be there for whatever stupid shit is in store for the future. IMNSHO

Edited November 2, 2020 by Tigersnake
typo

[thepop 4409]

17 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

If Biden has the Senate and House he needs to institute MASSIVE democratic reforms immediately.

Well, first he has to rescue the economy from the hands of a Republican (per usual), and the whole pandemic thing.

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i expect rurals to come out big everywhere.  i think those truck rallies are effective at engagement.  no sarcasm.

Data indicates they already have and depending on the state, there aren't enough of them to matter relative to the urban markets.

[Bateshorn 9897]

14 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Trafalgar's polling shows a very tight race Pennsylvania, even as a right leaning outlier. What the hell is he talking about? If his poll is even off by 1% that is proof of something?

Nate Silver revealed a couple of nights ago that Trafalagar has been getting paid by unnamed partisan entities. It’s too late to do anything but put a partisan astrix on the polls, but it’s something he will have to account for in the future.  
 

There is a long history of pollsters staking out an extreme position and hoping it hits.  Most are wrong, but every cycle there is one pollster that the broken clock on vote day is correct.  Zogby, Rasmussen, Gravis, and now Trafalgar.  On the progressive side: Sam Wang got made to look the fool in 2016 (although he’s and aggregator).

 

Either Trafalgar has seen something nobody else has seen, or more likely he got lucky on Election Day in 2016, and he’s now cashing in on the RW grift. The stupid facial hair and bow tie indicate the latter. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Tuco 5076]

38 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Had an outdoor gathering with some liberal friends I don't normally talk politics with and she made a point that I hadn't fully thought of that led me to believe the Democratic Party is potentially as likely to fracture as the Republicans... the age gap between Democratic leadership and the vital blood of the party is 4 decades plus.

This liberal friend is the DCCC variety, the corporation-friendly, "we can't unilaterally disarm" type when it comes to rubbing lobbyist elbows and loving big donors. For years she's been scolding and chiding about how the young AOCs need to "work more closely" with the ancient vampires (not how she would describe them) like Pelosi and Hoyer and Clyburn. She's realizing that the ancient vampires would rather die clinging to power and guaranteeing Republican victory than pass the torch to anyone and that the party needs all of those people to actually literally die before it splinters into the Democratic party (center) and some kind of progressive party. RBG made this especially stark and obvious.

Stranger things have happened.

I think there is certainly a possibility of a realignment, with some transitional period where a third party is generated, pulling significantly from both the conservative Dems and never-Trump Republicans - sort of the old guard. 

In Omaha, this is sort of thing is happening now. Kara Eastman is running as a progressive challenger to Republican Don Bacon.  In 2016, Bacon had defeated Brad Ashford, a centrist Dem who had previously been a Republican.  In 2018, Kara beat Brad in a close primary.  In the 2020 primary, Brad's wife Ann Ashford was throttled by Kara, in roughly a 2:1 margin.  A couple of weeks ago Brad endorsed Bacon against Kara.  Earlier this summer, County Attorney Don Kleine, a registered Dem, decided not to press charges against a bar owner who had killed a black protester and claimed self defense.  He was pressured into calling a grand jury, which indicted the bar owner.  Eastman had called out the killing of the protester.  Kleine criticized her for it.  Now Bacon is running ads with an endorsement from Ashford and the criticism from Kleine.  Kleine has even publicly stated he voted for Trump.  It is definitely an old conservative white guy faction (both R and D) against the progressive Dem.  Granted, I think a lot of this personal rather than policy, but there is a cultural difference that will lead to personal rifts. 

I could see that kind of dynamic happening on the local level elsewhere, and nationally.  If the Dems win the White House, the Senate, and the House, there will be a lot of in-fighting on what needs to be fought for.  That will put a lot of pressure on any existing cracks in the party.  I think the progressives win control of the party.  They are making too much money to be ignored.  It is a little ironic.  

[Bama Chick 28596]

Any idea when we're supposed to get Hanen's ruling on the curbside voting? 

Looks like the hearing has started but.....

[heso 2748]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

1. Biden can't outlaw fracking on non-federal lands

2. there isn't much federal land in PA (see below that big red piece in the NW portion has zero O&G under it)

3. Energy Prices wouldn't skyrocket EVEN if federal land fracking was banned. 

4. In conclusion, Trump is a moron

 

Trying to ban fracking on that federal land in PA will set up a major court battle. 95% of the subsurface/mineral rights on that land are privately owned. And it’s definitely heavily (sort of) drilled for gas. Was previously drilled for oil and the major reason the subsurface rights are privately held is because that was a major oil producing region when it became a national forest. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by heso