2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Ghost of LL 15477]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i said yesterday that timeliness while be decisive here. hanen just indicated as much ("why am i just now getting this?").  no opportunity to cure for the voters makes a late challenge fatal.

For a smart district judge, it certainly would be.  If he just denied equitable relief on the basis of untimeliness (i.e., laches), then there is no way for the COA to overturn that.

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

15 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

 

wait... why does the car need to be the "structure" -- I thought the county's position was that the voting took place at the attached structure, just not inside of it (and no requirement that it be inside). ?

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

The only poll that is reasonable and shows anything for Trump to hang his hat on is the Des Moines register poll on Sunday. Even that though shows a 2 point leftward move that means Trump loses the blue wall states and loses a 280-260 type election. Probably more like 300-240 if that poll is dead on balls accurate. 

Edited November 2, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Correction, Nevada not Texas court ruled against GOP early voting.

Edited November 2, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[jimmyjazz 45546]

Just now, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

wait... why does the car need to be the "structure" -- I thought the county's position was that the voting took place at the attached structure, just not inside of it (and no requirement that it be inside). ?

It doesn't.  I could wear a cardboard box to vote in person, inside a polling location, and I would be inside the voting "structure".  The box would not invalidate that condition.

DISCLAIMER:  normal times are assumed, and these are not normal times

[NorthLoop 14083]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Federal Court rules against the fascists 

Rock on. 

[Guest Lobo]

Mithoff is a badass Texas Ex. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[Ghost of LL 15477]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Federal Court rules against the fascists 

Wow.  I mean, I can't say it was unexpected given the lack of merit to the plaintiffs' case.  But still--that's pretty fucking huge.

Meanwhile, I can't help but wonder what this has done to the handful of undecided voters (including people who are undecided about whether to vote) who are still out there.

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Federal Court rules against the fascists 

Here is Wulaw’s total lack of surprise. And a another data point brisket is a kook. And another data point that we are basically fair-ish in our election system. 
look- it’s a system governed by federalism so you are going to have regional differences based upon who controls where, but this is a design feature not a bug in most of American politics. And it’s not like in blue areas team Dem doesn’t try their hardest to ratfuck the GOP. And, we really won’t ever have 100% accurate vote counting bc- you try to get 100% certainty with 130 million people doing anything, but it’s pretty good and pretty fair and balanced a shit load of competing interests. 

[SimonBolivar 10911]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Meanwhile, I can't help but wonder what this has done to the handful of undecided voters (including people who are undecided about whether to vote) who are still out there.

Steven Hotze seems to be really bad at the whole optics thing.

[kevwun 15618]

That Republican Judges keep slamming doors in Trump's face warms my cold, black heart.

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

Not seeing the federal court ruling reported anywhere. Link?

[lemonlime 5503]

When the GOP has become so blatant in their voter suppression suits, that even the GOP partisan hack judges have no choice but to rule against them....

[DanTheHorn 4897]

I see all these late LV polls starting to go Trump's way and I get worried. Then I start to think Likely Voters means that they are starting to poll election day voters which we know are going to be more Trumpkins than democrats in some of these battle ground states especially with so much early vote. Those that know about polling is this accounted for or are we starting to basically see election day polls. If so Trump only being up by 1% for election day voting should be a concern for Trumpkins.

[Brisketexan 104557]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Here is Wulaw’s total lack of surprise. And a another data point brisket is a kook. And another data point that we are basically fair-ish in our election system. 
look- it’s a system governed by federalism so you are going to have regional differences based upon who controls where, but this is a design feature not a bug in most of American politics. And it’s not like in blue areas team Dem doesn’t try their hardest to ratfuck the GOP. And, we really won’t ever have 100% accurate vote counting bc- you try to get 100% certainty with 130 million people doing anything, but it’s pretty good and pretty fair and balanced a shit load of competing interests. 

I'm relieved by this ruling, but not particularly surprised.  On the law and the equities, it was a genuinely indefensible case to make.  This case isn't what has had me worried.

The planned litigation in Pennsylvania and Florida is what has me worried.  And I mean, I don't know WHERE I would get the idea that this is the GOP strategy.  Oh way, yes I do -- they've openly said so.

[thepop 4409]

There has been no ruling. Where are you getting that from?

[Pato del Muerto 52338]

27 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

 

I thought there were tent-like temp enclosures erected in which the cars drive into, and those were what met the requirement of a structure. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

1 minute ago, Seasick Sailor said:

Not seeing the federal court ruling reported anywhere. Link?

same same

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Wow.  I mean, I can't say it was unexpected given the lack of merit to the plaintiffs' case.  But still--that's pretty fucking huge.

Meanwhile, I can't help but wonder what this has done to the handful of undecided voters (including people who are undecided about whether to vote) who are still out there.

I’m sorry, I should have clarified, it was a Nevada early voting case. Texas case still apparently pending. 

[Brisketexan 104557]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m sorry, I should have clarified, it was a Nevada early voting case. Texas case still apparently pending. 

Well, goddamit, that makes a difference.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

v v hugo.  great job.

[1978horn 880]

Lots of folks living in their cars nowadays. Seems like a structure to me.

[Beau Vine 53983]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m sorry, I should have clarified, it was a Nevada early voting case. Texas case still apparently pending. 

Did you also go to a UNLV board and announce that the Federal judge has yet to rule?

Edited November 2, 2020 by Beau Vine

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

This is the Nevada news

 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

I'm relieved by this ruling, but not particularly surprised.  On the law and the equities, it was a genuinely indefensible case to make.  This case isn't what has had me worried.

The planned litigation in Pennsylvania and Florida is what has me worried.  And I mean, I don't know WHERE I would get the idea that this is the GOP strategy.  Oh way, yes I do -- they've openly said so.

So far the court has shown a complete reticence to get involved in anything that’s overturns the states rightful place in hosting and handling the election. I expect it to continue to be that way. 
I still contend the only election ever stolen in my lifetime is likely the Norm Coleman v Al Franken election- but as I said- with millions of votes in question when it comes down to a difference of hundreds of votes we really can’t know. It’s like determining who has the better team in a triple OT game decided on a last second three pointer- whether the shot goes in or misses all we really can say with certainty about the two teams playing is that they are very closely matched. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13409]

I assume the reasoning behind voting in a structure is to give someone an opportunity to vote away from the elements. You wouldn't be discourage about voting because of rain, snow, heat, whatever. There is nothing magical itself about a structure. But in this case, the person is in a vehicle under a tent. I don't see how that wouldn't be considered a structure. 

[BrickHorn 18186]

13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Here is Wulaw’s total lack of surprise. And a another data point brisket is a kook. And another data point that we are basically fair-ish in our election system. 

Brisket is often too pessimistic. But he’s not a kook. The  GOP filed numerous lawsuits requesting that the courts throw out whole categories of votes. Think about that. Is that something that happens in a healthy democracy? Fuck no. 

Thank god this judge did the right thing. But don’t diminish the seriousness of one major political party waging a widespread war on democracy. If Biden wins tomorrow, we need to spend the next four years working to unfuck national politics. Because things are pretty fucking far from okay right now.

Edit: not so fast... 

Edited November 2, 2020 by BrickHorn

[Bama Chick 28596]

To distract y’all from Hugo shitting the bed, here’s some good news from Pennsylvania and so-so news from Arizona.

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m sorry, I should have clarified, it was a Nevada early voting case. Texas case still apparently pending. 

Fuck dude- you should be negged to Bolivia. 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

1 minute ago, BrickHorn said:

Brisket is often too pessimistic. But he’s not a kook. The  GOP filed numerous lawsuits requesting that the courts throw out whole categories of votes. Think about that. Is that something that happens in a healthy democracy? Fuck no. 

Thank god this judge did the right thing. But don’t diminish the seriousness of one major political party waging a widespread war on democracy. If Biden wins tomorrow, we need to spend the next four years working to unfuck national politics. Because things are pretty fucking far from okay right now.

We don’t actually know that right now bc Hugo is a dolt that posted fake news. I suppose I can still look like a moron if it goes the other way. 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

2 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

To distract y’all from Hugo shitting the bed, here’s some good news from Pennsylvania and so-so news from Arizona.
 

That’s actually pretty bad news for Dems if it’s accurate. It means they will barely get over the finish line and win a squeaker, with no mandate and no governing margin. 
But, Trump will be gone. 

[APMP 685]

Hanen might allow the 127k ballots but try and turn off drivethrough voting for tomorrow.

[Huckleberry 32694]

And the Nevada news is hours old. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

To easy everyone's doom a little

 

[Eastwood 4394]

The Judiciary takes their role as a 3rd branch of government fairly seriously. Sure, the R judges will generally rule favorably for R causes, but one thing that has been fairly consistent is the Judiciary's pushback on the other two branches attempting to treat them as puppets. If the Rs or the Ds push something to the courts basically demanding that the Judiciary do their bidding, the Judiciary will push back and tell them to bring a legitimate cause of action or get lost.

[Bateshorn 9898]

46 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

Just now, Neonmoon said:

To easy everyone's doom a little

 

So that should give the GOP very little upside potential (not none- but not much) and puts margin of error very much on the side of the Dems. 

[Helobious 9480]

2 minutes ago, APMP said:

Hanen might allow the 127k ballots but try and turn off drivethrough voting for tomorrow.

Anyone that ever tries to vote in any way but in person from now on is asking to get their vote tossed.

[Pato del Muerto 52338]

7 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

To distract y’all from Hugo shitting the bed, here’s some good news from Pennsylvania and so-so news from Arizona.
 

I don’t believe Biden would be getting less support than Kelly. I’d lean the opposite. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

Just now, Helobious said:

Anyone that ever tries to vote in any way but in person from now on is asking to get their vote tossed.

Or lost. 

[Huckleberry 32694]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

To easy everyone's doom a little

 

Thanks. This is the kind of poll analysis that matters. 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

I don’t believe Biden would be getting less support than Kelly. I’d lean the opposite. 

Nah. AZ hates McSally. It’s totally believable to think Biden runs 3 points behind Kelly. 

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

To easy everyone's doom a little

 

That's good info, thanks for posting. I've seen some general statements around pollsters changing their weightings to "fix" 2016, but this is the first time I've seen specifics.

538 did mention that some of the pollsters basically back-tested their new models that include that education split on 2016 and would have still missed, but not by as much. I think Trump will probably outperform polls in the midwest again, but not by as much, and not enough to come close to mattering.. Biden wins all three by about 3-4%.

Edited November 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2659]

Any ideas on why polling in Arizona has tightened so much over the last several days, in Trump's favor?

['stache 21758]

Is it just mail in ballots that would be counted later in some states? Why would early voting need to wait? They've already been recorded and the counts should be as easy as on election night itself for votes cast that day.

[Pato del Muerto 52338]

1 minute ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Any ideas on why polling in Arizona has tightened so much over the last several days, in Trump's favor?

Do all polls define likely voter in the same way?  Does that exclude already voted, or include them all, or some formula in between?

[ndawg 1242]

4 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Brisket is often too pessimistic. But he’s not a kook. The  GOP filed numerous lawsuits requesting that the courts throw out whole categories of votes. Think about that. Is that something that happens in a healthy democracy? Fuck no. 

Thank god this judge did the right thing. But don’t diminish the seriousness of one major political party waging a widespread war on democracy. If Biden wins tomorrow, we need to spend the next four years working to unfuck national politics. Because things are pretty fucking far from okay right now.

Yep. We're not out of the woods until Trump, the GOP and the Deplorables are all defeated permanently as a political force. If being on the ledge is a metaphor for predicting the downfall of our society, count me on the ledge until that happens.

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

1 minute ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

Any ideas on why polling in Arizona has tightened so much over the last several days, in Trump's favor?

GOP coming home. The state is moving a bit to a lot leftward but it’s still a little right of the rest of the country.AZ probably stays red if it’s Biden +5. I think it’s probably Biden 6-8 so AZ flips, but either that or GA likely to be the closest states in a 6 or 8 point race.