2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[gmr548 16481]

I don’t see how weather is affecting this virus. It’s hot as shit in FL and TX right now. 

1.) What do people do in Texas in the summer? Hang out inside in the AC. We're out and about in winter/spring like most are in summer.

2.) The scary part - what if it is? There have been several clinical observations that the virus appears to have weakened since March. Don't know why that is - perhaps a mutation to a more contagious, less lethal strain. Perhaps it's just going through a younger population right now. Perhaps the weather is suppressing it a bit. Could be all. Could be none. We won't really know until we have the benefit of hindsight. But we don't knoe it isn't going to come on stronger when it cools off.

[thepop 4409]

Don't worry, Mitch won't allow a supreme court nomination on an election year.

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

54 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Something iffy about that polling org. Their numbers jump around all over the place. Over the past 2 months, they've had polls showing everything from Biden +3 to Biden +14.

6/9: Biden +13 among RV, +10 among adults.

6/23: Biden +6 among RV, +8 among adults.

Does not compute. Oh well, toss it in the pile with the rest. That's what averages are for.

Per 538 it's a B- pollster and their results appear to be noisy. 

BUT - I do think the Law and Order/Statues/riots stuff could tighten numbers up. 

[Dbeasy 14962]

 
It was pretty obvious that a white man was going to have a built-in advantage. "Swing voters" look less like some intelligent professor looking guy reading about each candidate's policies and deciding last minute, and more like poor white folks in the rust belt who are in unions and at least have some understanding that Republicans are for the rich people. When balancing their own economic interests vs. their need to feel like they're still above minorities and women on the food chain, an old white man makes that decision pretty easy.
Swing voters are stupid.
(I know you probably already know all of this, Hank, just general commentary).
Really sucks that the cure to Trump is to make sure we avoid nominating a woman or a PoC because a white man is the smoothest path to winning the swing voters necessary. I guess having one black president, while it assuaged a lot of white guilt, hasn't really changed a whole lot.

As one of the few voices for Swing voters on Surly, it’s people like you, who fail to recognize the legitimate concerns of “the other side” and some of the flawed policy positions of your own party, that causes your party to lose so many elections that it probably shouldn’t.

The hyper partisanship of both parties right now is destroying the country, and the swing voters are the only ones who’ve figured that out. Most swing voters have correctly discerned that the Republicans are currently more harmful to the country, but the Democrats are not completely blameless.

The swing voters vote for whoever sucks less. That’s our motto. Right now the election should be a slam dunk for the Democrats but keep throwing out bad marketing and communications and you’ll eff up that slam dunk. Calling the people who decide this election “stupid” is a great start.

[BradInATX 9208]

As one of the few voices for Swing voters on Surly, it’s people like you, who fail to recognize the legitimate concerns of “the other side” and some of the flawed policy positions of your own party, that causes your party to lose so many elections that it probably shouldn’t.

The hyper partisanship of both parties right now is destroying the country, and the swing voters are the only ones who’ve figured that out. Most swing voters have correctly discerned that the Republicans are currently more harmful to the country, but the Democrats are not completely blameless.

The swing voters vote for whoever sucks less. That’s our motto. Right now the election should be a slam dunk for the Democrats but keep throwing out bad marketing and communications and you’ll eff up that slam dunk. Calling the people who decide this election “stupid” is a great start.

Okay. I'm sorry. You're very special.

[Biff Tannen 45491]

5 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Calling the people who decide this election “stupid” is a great start.

Voting for Donald Trump is stupid.  I can't put it any other way.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

Just read an article in the independent that makes an interesting point.  
 

Joe is old. trump predictably attacks him because he’s old.  Thats hurt him with fellow olds (see Florida polling) and doesn’t help him with the kids because they hate trump with a white hot passion already.   
It’s a accidental  political baiting. 

[Ghost of LL 15469]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Just read an article in the independent that makes an interesting point.  
 

Joe is old. trump predictably attacks him because he’s old.  Thats hurt him with fellow olds (see Florida polling) and doesn’t help him with the kids because they hate trump with a white hot passion already.   
It’s a accidental  political baiting. 

I think there's some of that with the olds.  But I think the much bigger issue is the callous disregard for their lives in his treatment of the pandemic.

And actually, they kind of dovetail together, don't they?

[Storm the Field 5271]

 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4658]

37 minutes ago, thepop said:

Don't worry, Mitch won't allow a supreme court nomination on an election year.

In addition to this, the above conversation presupposes the Dems take back the Senate. I don't think Moscow Mitch will allow another Dem SCOTUS nominee to receive a vote, and that may even hold true for any federal-nominee. Sad, but we may just be to the point where one party has to control the presidency and senate in order to appoint judges.  

[Biff Tannen 45491]

16 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

In addition to this, the above conversation presupposes the Dems take back the Senate. I don't think Moscow Mitch will allow another Dem SCOTUS nominee to receive a vote, and that may even hold true for any federal-nominee. Sad, but we may just be to the point where one party has to control the presidency and senate in order to appoint judges.  

If the Dems take the Senate they need to confirm two SCOTUS judges and then make it a fucking law that when a SCOTUS judge retires (or dies), the Senate MUST confirm someone within x amount of time.  I'm sure there are more details to that, but we can't allow a party to just ignore the system.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

 

As one of the few voices for Swing voters on Surly, it’s people like you, who fail to recognize the legitimate concerns of “the other side” and some of the flawed policy positions of your own party, that causes your party to lose so many elections that it probably shouldn’t.

The hyper partisanship of both parties right now is destroying the country, and the swing voters are the only ones who’ve figured that out. Most swing voters have correctly discerned that the Republicans are currently more harmful to the country, but the Democrats are not completely blameless.

The swing voters vote for whoever sucks less. That’s our motto. Right now the election should be a slam dunk for the Democrats but keep throwing out bad marketing and communications and you’ll eff up that slam dunk. Calling the people who decide this election “stupid” is a great start.

 

Figured I'd come back after my workout and answer this a little more completely.

1) I'm not a Democrat. My streak of voting Democrat in presidential elections is currently... one. I agree that they have terrible marketing and their party apparatus is terrible. 

2) The "I'm special and smart and I need to be courted" is one of the worst things about so-called "independents". It's really off-putting, especially in 2020 when the choices for president or what they are. This comes from a non-affiliated person who has voted both parties and third-party in the last five elections. 

3) I was very clearly talking about post-Obama era. I'm not really sure what you're arguing with or why you got so flustered. Obviously I touched a nerve, but I'm not sure why. Unless of course you're a 2016/2020 swing voter, in which case, you're a clown and we don't have anything to talk about. There's absolutely no reason to be undecided about Trump vs. Biden in 2020.

Quote

swing voters are the only ones who’ve figured that out

Edited June 24, 2020 by BradInATX

[Storm the Field 5271]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

 

Apparently this poll is actually 51-42 if you include "leaners."

Yes, people remember that Marquette got WI "wrong" in 2016, but the big difference is the level of undecideds. Their final poll in 2016 was Clinton 46/Trump 40. The result was 46.5/47.2. 

If you look at the history of 2016 polling in Wisconsin it pretty much all averages out to Clinton at 46% with 15% undecided.

This is a trend repeating itself in other states and nationally. There just doesn't appear to be a big hidden supply of "shy trump" voters out there. Committed vote shares are routinely hitting or topping 90%. Assuming 3-4% vote third-party, that's maybe 6-7% of undecided voters. If you're extremely generous and give Trump every single one of those votes, he still comes up short in most places. 

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Storm the Field

[Dnaguy 11763]

2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I don’t see how weather is affecting this virus. It’s hot as shit in FL and TX right now. 

It's not so much that the weather does or doesn't kill the virus.

It's that cold keeps people inside.... which is kind of the opposite of Texas and I think a generality that doesn't hold for the entire country.

Summer is hot so people stay in the AC. Maybe that's why we're spiking?

When ppl are inside they breath the same air..... and get COVID easier.

This is our concern dude.

 

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

 

[tantric superman 4667]

2 hours ago, thepop said:

Don't worry, Mitch won't allow a supreme court nomination on an election year.

Mitch is going to lose to that Marine pilot fella.

[henrygandorf 29174]

so i have an off-topic question here.  a few days ago, tweets started showing up like this:

i don't know if it's a chrome thing, or a surly thing, but it's driving me fucking bonkers.

any suggestions?

[Dnaguy 11763]

5 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Mitch is going to lose to that Marine pilot fella.

 

Dude has his left ear pierced?

 

Bringing that 90's style back.

 

I like it.

 

But I would have gone more of a cross to bring more evangelical votes..... like this (well at least I think) Christian rock singer :

 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Dnaguy

[Biff Tannen 45491]

9 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

so i have an off-topic question here.  a few days ago, tweets started showing up like this:

i don't know if it's a chrome thing, or a surly thing, but it's driving me fucking bonkers.

any suggestions?

Yeah, it's been happening to me randomly the past couple of weeks.  Next page usually works fine.

[gmr548 16481]

Voting for Donald Trump is stupid.  I can't put it any other way.

If you're considering Donald Trump, stupid is the most flattering possible conclusion.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

In addition to this, the above conversation presupposes the Dems take back the Senate. I don't think Moscow Mitch will allow another Dem SCOTUS nominee to receive a vote, and that may even hold true for any federal-nominee. Sad, but we may just be to the point where one party has to control the presidency and senate in order to appoint judges.  

Moscow Mitch would suffer a heavy backlash if he denied Biden any new Supreme Court justices. 
 

I think the American people would make a concerted effort to flip the senate control of Biden wins in 2020, the gop holds onto the senate, then stonewalls Biden on nearly everything.  I just don’t see them getting away with their obstruction.

[Voldemort86 2259]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

 

Very good news for Biden.

I think Marquette is the most widely respected Wisconsin poll.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Voldemort86

[Guest Lobo]

Class III is particularly vulnerable for Republicans in 2022, but it's also a mid-term year and they're gonna run on their battle v. Biden.  

You've got retiring GOP Senators in swing states like North Carolina and Wisconsin.  And vulnerable Republican incumbents are up in tilt races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, and Louisiana.  Democrats only have two challenging problems-Nevada and Colorado. 

I don't like Mitch, but I love Gridlock.  Biden and a Pelosi House with a GOP Senate (preferably with another Majority Leader), and somewhat-Centrist SCOTUS sounds pretty good about now.  As long as Biden isn't a total clustercuss, Democrats should be able to recapture the Senate in 2022/Class III even with mid-term pushback on the President's party.  However, I could see the Republicans taking back the House in the same election cycle with newly redrawn districts at the state levels (the vast majority of which they control).  

[gmr548 16481]

Class III is particularly vulnerable for Republicans in 2022, but it's also a mid-term year and they're gonna run on their battle v. Biden.  
You've got retiring GOP Senators in swing states like North Carolina and Wisconsin.  And vulnerable Republican incumbents are up in tilt races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, and Louisiana.  Democrats only have two challenging problems-Nevada and Colorado. 
I don't like Mitch, but I love Gridlock.  Biden and a Pelosi House with a GOP Senate (preferably with another Majority Leader), and somewhat-Centrist SCOTUS sounds pretty good about now.  As long as Biden isn't a total clustercuss, Democrats should be able to recapture the Senate in 2022/Class III even with mid-term pushback on the President's party.  However, I could see the Republicans taking back the House in the same election cycle with newly redrawn districts at the state levels (the vast majority of which they control).  

A Democratic incumbent will not be in danger in Colorado. Probably not in Nevada either, but there is at least a chance. Hell no on Colorado though. Blue state.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

5 hours ago, WBT said:

Ah yes, the President vs VP debate.  The highlight of every campaign season.

Trump does want a 4th debate.

Might as well change up the format of they decide to accommodate him.

[Guest Lobo]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

15 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Class III is particularly vulnerable for Republicans in 2022, but it's also a mid-term year and they're gonna run on their battle v. Biden.  
You've got retiring GOP Senators in swing states like North Carolina and Wisconsin.  And vulnerable Republican incumbents are up in tilt races in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, Indiana, and Louisiana.  Democrats only have two challenging problems-Nevada and Colorado. 
I don't like Mitch, but I love Gridlock.  Biden and a Pelosi House with a GOP Senate (preferably with another Majority Leader), and somewhat-Centrist SCOTUS sounds pretty good about now.  As long as Biden isn't a total clustercuss, Democrats should be able to recapture the Senate in 2022/Class III even with mid-term pushback on the President's party.  However, I could see the Republicans taking back the House in the same election cycle with newly redrawn districts at the state levels (the vast majority of which they control).  

Read more  

A Democratic incumbent will not be in danger in Colorado. Probably not in Nevada either, but there is at least a chance. Hell no on Colorado though. Blue state.

They already have one Republican Senator in Colorado.  It's still a blue lean, but who knows?  But yeah, I had to list a couple of possible question marks for the Democrats to appear to be thorough.  But you get the gist, I still don't see 2020 breaking for a Democrat Senate.  But in 2022?  Absolutely, only a massive mid-term backlash on Biden could swing it back to the GOP.  Later tonight, I have to go back down the political history rabbit hole to see if a mid-term election saw both chambers change parties in the same year.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

The idea that Kamala is great in debates is nice until you see her actually debate.  Kamala is like a #1 draft pick that keeps getting injured and drops the ball in the big games.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always been big on Kamala because she has that intangible aura of destiny around her but besides a few viral sound byte moments, she still has a ways to go. 

[Chuckie Finster 22598]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The idea that Kamala is great in debates is nice until you see her actually debate.  Kamala is like a #1 draft pick that keeps getting injured and drops the ball in the big games.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always been big on Kamala because she has that intangible aura of destiny around her but besides a few viral sound byte moments, she still has a ways to go. 

This is literally the definition of a successful debate in the year 2020.

[Biff Tannen 45491]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The idea that Kamala is great in debates is nice until you see her actually debate.  Kamala is like a #1 draft pick that keeps getting injured and drops the ball in the big games.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always been big on Kamala because she has that intangible aura of destiny around her but besides a few viral sound byte moments, she still has a ways to go. 

If Warren isn't VP, where would you most want her to be?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This is literally the definition of a successful debate in the year 2020.

I know, I was about to say, that might be enough.  With Kamala, she’s always shooting for sound bytes and sometimes they don’t always work. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

If Warren isn't VP, where would you most want her to be?

Wherever she can have the most influence over policy decisions.  Debatable on where that would be but as close to Biden’s ear is where she seems to believe most effective.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

5 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

No, no. I have NEVER seen the kind of focused, furious motivation among Democrats as I do right now. Not during he Bush years, not ever. People can't wait to vote. For the first time since it's founding. Democrats have a single focus that is the most important issue across the entire coalition. That's never happened since the advent of direct presidential elections. 

Yup.  I'm a crawl through glass to vote this time around type of guy, and I know lots and lots of people just like me.  Also, I have never been that guy before.  Ever.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, I don't think I've ever looked forward to an election in my lifetime.  Between primaries and generals, I think I've missed 1 election in the last 25 years.  I vote every time on every thing simply because I feel it's my civic responsibility, and because a lot of down ballot stuff affects my business and my family.  So I show up for everything.  But it's just an errand IMO, something I can tick off my to-do list for that week.  I've worked with campaigns, held fundraisers, bundled donations, gotten deep into it, even have friends down ballot on stuff.  But it's just a chore I need to knock out every year and then it's back to the grind.  I've never "looked forward to voting."  I would look at somebody funny if that told me out they were "excited to vote/cast my ballot."  

But this one?  I cannot fucking wait.  I am on the edge of my seat, November can't get here fast enough.  I'm not donating to Biden, but I'm telling everybody I know that I am proudly voting for him and I cannot wait to do it and I cannot wait to swell up with pride as I walk out of Randall's.  

[gmr548 16481]

They already have one Republican Senator in Colorado.  It's still a blue lean, but who knows?  But yeah, I had to list a couple of possible question marks for the Democrats to appear to be thorough.  But you get the gist, I still don't see 2020 breaking for a Democrat Senate.  But in 2022?  Absolutely, only a massive mid-term backlash on Biden could swing it back to the GOP.  Later tonight, I have to go back down the political history rabbit hole to see if a mid-term election saw both chambers change parties in the same year.  

2006 would be the last time that happened. Gardner squeaked by in a very GOP-friendly midterm. He's going to lose bigly to a candidate in Hickenlooper thay appears not very interested in winning.

The Cook Political Reports of the world are really behind on how safety Democratic Colorado is now. 45-46 percent is an extremely good showing for a statewide Republican at this point. Trump will not even get that high. Eight years of getting more Democratic since the last narrow GOP win. They just don't have the votes there anymore. Not to take down an incumbent.

[Guest Lobo]

In that case, the 2023 Senate will be 53-47 Democrat.  

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

 

But I would have gone more of a cross to bring more evangelical votes..... like this (well at least I think) Christian rock singer :

 

Don't you go making fun of my man, DNA.  I will not have it!!  A strongly worded letter has already been sent to your attorneys about this!

[Storm the Field 5271]

 

[The Dog 43785]

Good conversation on 538 about the election: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-path-is-the-trump-presidency-on-now/

[Storm the Field 5271]

So far, Biden seems to be running about even with Clinton in the areas where she won big. The big difference is polling indicates that he has significantly narrowed the gap in areas (and with demographics) where she lost by large margins.

I. E. winning city centers by 40+ but only trailing in the surrounding exurbs by 5-10 instead of 15-20.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Storm the Field

[6th Street 6354]

Good to see Biden's numbers doing exactly what he was nominated for - winning back disgruntled Midwest moderates, suburbs, and women that either stayed home or voted Trump in 2016. No other Democrat could have pulled together this level of support, and Donnie is likely scared as hell about a blowout loss.

[Yuk 1508]

2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Good to see Biden's numbers doing exactly what he was nominated for - winning back disgruntled Midwest moderates, suburbs, and women that either stayed home or voted Trump in 2016. No other Democrat could have pulled together this level of support, and Donnie is likely scared as hell about a blowout loss.

This.  And they can't find a scary label for him.  And they can't seem to run their standard playbook of fear.  All their old hits are just hollow as fuck.  And people are just worn out and ready for an adult in the driver's seat.

Saying that, I expect the totally-not-coordinated, every-two-years. Qanon-type conspiracy stuff to start amping up any day now.

[Dbeasy 14962]

4 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Okay. I'm sorry. You're very special.

Now see, was that so difficult? Now I'm really motivated to vote for the team that currently sucks way less! Validate my feelings! Seriously.  Validate them.

4 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Voting for Donald Trump is stupid.  I can't put it any other way.

No disagreement here, and never stated in my post that swing voters should be voting for Trump.  I've made my views on him very clear and there really aren't any good excuses left for voting for him.  All swing voters should be swinging left on this election. Some haven't yet, which is frustrating for sure.

3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Figured I'd come back after my workout and answer this a little more completely.

1) I'm not a Democrat. My streak of voting Democrat in presidential elections is currently... one. I agree that they have terrible marketing and their party apparatus is terrible. 

2) The "I'm special and smart and I need to be courted" is one of the worst things about so-called "independents". It's really off-putting, especially in 2020 when the choices for president or what they are. This comes from a non-affiliated person who has voted both parties and third-party in the last five elections. 

3) I was very clearly talking about post-Obama era. I'm not really sure what you're arguing with or why you got so flustered. Obviously I touched a nerve, but I'm not sure why. Unless of course you're a 2016/2020 swing voter, in which case, you're a clown and we don't have anything to talk about. There's absolutely no reason to be undecided about Trump vs. Biden in 2020.

It may be off-putting to you, but Democrats annoy Republicans, and Republicans annoy Democrats, and swing voters annoy everyone.  You're the one that looks like someone touched a nerve when you called all swing voters idiots. Bad mouthing other people doesn't win votes. The hyper partisan forget this every day. 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Bad mouthing other people doesn't win votes. The hyper partisan forget this every day. 

 

I agree with you here. I'm not trying to win any votes on Surly. In real life, I definitely wouldn't call someone who I thought was winnable stupid or whatever. I'm with you on it being counter productive.

Besides calling people stupid is what I have this place for.

[henrygandorf 29174]

can we just make an arm wrestling meme with “independents” on one side and “bernie bros” on the other with “win my vote!” in the middle and get it over with?

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

2 hours ago, Yuk said:

This.  And they can't find a scary label for him.  And they can't seem to run their standard playbook of fear.  All their old hits are just hollow as fuck.  And people are just worn out and ready for an adult in the driver's seat.

Saying that, I expect the totally-not-coordinated, every-two-years. Qanon-type conspiracy stuff to start amping up any day now.

he's old and senile. That's all they've got

[Gil Bang 25894]

4 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The idea that Kamala is great in debates is nice until you see her actually debate.  Kamala is like a #1 draft pick that keeps getting injured and drops the ball in the big games.  Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always been big on Kamala because she has that intangible aura of destiny around her but besides a few viral sound byte moments, she still has a ways to go. 

She fucking humiliated Cornyn yesterday.   

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

5 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

She fucking humiliated Cornyn yesterday.   

 Cornyn humiliated himself and Kamala was standing in front of him describing reality.  If that’s an epic takedown, then the bar is beyond low.  Glad she got a sound byte in but telling Cornyn the judiciary committee deliberates in public after he was telling an obvious lie isn’t that special.

Edited June 25, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Guest Lobo]

What happened yesterday between those two?  Links?  Tweets?  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

What happened yesterday between those two?  Links?  Tweets?  

 

[Aqua Buddha 14501]

3 hours ago, 6th Street said:

Good to see Biden's numbers doing exactly what he was nominated for - winning back disgruntled Midwest moderates, suburbs, and women that either stayed home or voted Trump in 2016. No other Democrat could have pulled together this level of support, and Donnie is likely scared as hell about a blowout loss.

There’s a reason that Trump wanted the Ukraine’s help with Biden.