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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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heso

heso 2748

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Help me out here - Trump (per CNN graphic) is up 600k votes in Pennsylvania but I see a lot of people here and elsewhere talking about it as still a possibility for Biden - are there that many votes left to count in Philly and Pittsburgh?  

I’ve said it a dozen times in the last few days on this thread: If Trump’s lead at the end of Tuesday  was under a million votes, it was likely going to flip to Biden as the mail in votes came in. 

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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

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This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Errestaurants

Errestaurants 2570

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I don't think this is correct. IF he does lose, he's still a demagogue with a cult following.  He won't be just "another rich motherfucker".  He'll find a platform and continue to fuel these idiots' racism and ignorance.

 

David Rubinstein basically just said this on CNBC. He will not just step aside like previous President's and will be a political force. He has a very strong base that Republicans will need come voting cycles.

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gmr548

gmr548 16463

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Help me out here - Trump (per CNN graphic) is up 600k votes in Pennsylvania but I see a lot of people here and elsewhere talking about it as still a possibility for Biden - are there that many votes left to count in Philly and Pittsburgh?  

There are something like 1.4mm mail votes still to be counted, which have broken disproportionately for Biden so far. Like 70-30. A lot are in the Philly area. No guarantee it will hold, but if it did, Biden would win.
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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 17875

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Or they could find a way to appeal to rural voters a little bit, on the margins?  EC isn't going anywhere and neither is 2 senators per state.

If rural voters were actually educated on the issues,it’d be more of a 50/50 split than a 70/30 split. They’re a major group that consistently votes against their own self interests.
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HenryJames

HenryJames 65868

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Posted
3 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

A couple of things on this.

The hanging chad problem in 2004 presented a kind of unique set of circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated.

The Supreme Court, namely John Roberts, but I think others too, is acutely aware that its institutional "reputation" is on the line and similarly are aware of the low regard in which the Bush v. Gore decision is held.  I am fairly optimistic that the Court "learned its lesson" with Bush v. Gore, and I think the likelihood of similarly "juicy" circumstances presenting themselves here is nil.  So, too, did state elections officials and I think they were by and large prepared to deal with this election in an orderly way that's going to curtail avenues for challenge at the federal level.

Even the new justices are not beholden to Trump any longer.  They are lifetime appointees.  See, e.g. the Trump financials cases.  I don't think the Supreme Court is in the bag for Donald Trump for this election.

It’s one thing if Pennsylvania was the tie breaker, but it’s not. Trying to litigate Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, etc isn’t going to work. Can’t litigate an election that isn’t close, imo.

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1 minute ago, Errestaurants said:

David Rubinstein basically just said this on CNBC. He will not just step aside like previous President's and will be a political force. He has a very strong base that Republicans will need come voting cycles.

So...an albatross from hell?   

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14488

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

For the folks saying that Democrats need to find a way to turn out democratic voters that’s simply inaccurate.  Dems will win the popular vote handily hence the democratic voters have turned out.  What they have to do is find out how to turn out geographically separated democratic voters which in turn has the Democrats fighting wars on to many fronts policy/issue wise.  The electoral college has to go.  

There is almost no ticket splitting anymore, though.  It used to be common but now it's +95%.  

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Bevo14

Bevo14 8260

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

Lulz that you guys are acting like minorities can't be racist. The handful of people in my Asian community that voted for Trump pretend they're white and hate immigrants.  It's hilariously hypocritical but it happens

Just to clarify, I'm not trying to imply that white people are racist. 

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HenryJames

HenryJames 65868

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2 minutes ago, Errestaurants said:

David Rubinstein basically just said this on CNBC. He will not just step aside like previous President's and will be a political force. He has a very strong base that Republicans will need come voting cycles.

He also desperately needs to make money which has always been his motivation. And avoid criminal charges at the state level.

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troph

troph 24547

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Is it off limits to ask this in what has become the game thread:  where did the 538/RCP/Economist poll summaries miss?  Are we in a spot where we have to conclude that it's just not possible to poll with enough accuracy to make predictions, or are we simply closer to a perfect storm (FL/NC/GA/PA going Trump, etc.)?

They need a fake news tag on everything they say. Two POTUS cycles in a row.
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Bojack

Bojack 2073

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Posted
2 minutes ago, usmc0331horn said:

None of this bullshit would be necessary if we had a normal voting system. So much fuckery.

Yep.

3 things we'll never be rid of in this country in our lifetimes:

- Grossly disproportionate representation in the Senate.  California has 70 times the population of Wyoming and the same number of US Senators.

- The Electoral College.  If Dotard pulls this out, it's 3 of the last 6 elections that Republicans will win without winning the popular vote.  5 SC Justices have been appointed by Presidents that lost the popular vote.

- The right wing cult ain't going away.  People make money on talk radio, Fox News, and internet bullshit.  It's not your great-grandfather's state media that had to be propped up by the government.  The cult can't get enough of it and they gladly pay for it.

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Horn Dogg

Horn Dogg 3805

Posted
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12 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

I don't think this is correct. IF he does lose, he's still a demagogue with a cult following.  He won't be just "another rich motherfucker".  He'll find a platform and continue to fuel these idiots' racism and ignorance.

 

He will be a broke motherfucker with a bunch of morons that worship him.

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thepop

thepop 4409

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538 and others don’t make polls, they give odds based on polls. They said Biden has a 90% chance or so because so much could go wrong and he could still win. As we saw, NC, FL, and maybe GA went wrong and Biden is going to win.

 

They were right. Blame the pollsters for places like NC not the odds people.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11740

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15 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

Need to talk about economic issues and healthcare. “Systemic racism” just isn’t a good issue.

Yeah.

Americans don’t like what they see when a mirror is out in front of our faces.

We like the stories about beating Nazis and Commies and manifest destiny / ignoring the genocide.

Best we ignore the bad. 
Celebrate the good, regardless of truth or fact.

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5781

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8 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Why are you presuming the Senate is eternally Republican?

Strange.

Save the condescension, I've seen you post short stories on this board, so I know you have it in you. I am asking legitimately. How do the Dems avoid being blamed for all that's wrong in the next two years in order to give voters a reason to turn out for them in 2022? I think what's needed most is a stimulus package, and the Senate will block that. Help me out here 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45513

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6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


There are something like 1.4mm mail votes still to be counted, which have broken disproportionately for Biden so far. Like 70-30. A lot are in the Philly area. No guarantee it will hold, but if it did, Biden would win.

40% of 1.4M is 560K, which would not quite be enough.  (980K - 420K)

I realize you're roughing it in, but it's a long path to victory, and of course it would be challenged.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14953

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This seems to be one of the harsh lessons.  We already knew that dumb people would vote against their interests, but the endorsement of white supremacy by minorities is shocking.

I would argue that the people who vote against their interests actually think they are voting for their interests. They just are too dumb to realize it.
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horncyclist

horncyclist 1384

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9 minutes ago, Errestaurants said:

David Rubinstein basically just said this on CNBC. He will not just step aside like previous President's and will be a political force. He has a very strong base that Republicans will need come voting cycles.

Not sure how much of that you can do from prison.

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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Beto's result fooled me into thinking Texas was trending faster than it is but the trend is still there. Biden was not as strong a candidate as Beto was and Trump's cult is much stronger than I imagined. 16% in 2012. 9% in 2016. 6% in 2020. If you add back 2% of the Libertarian vote back into 2016 the trend is 16 - 11 - 6 - 1.

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heso

heso 2748

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3 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

also Pennsylvania law allows them to accept mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day for the next 3 days. So we still have votes coming in which should lean Biden.

That’s also going to be a fight. Those are being set aside and not counted with the ones that came in through yesterday. I expect them to count, but it might be a Supreme Court fight for those 100k+ votes that will probably be Biden +40. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11740

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7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

He also desperately needs to make money which has always been his motivation. And avoid criminal charges at the state level.

Without the presidency he losing a lot of the armor.

A lot of actually criminality can come out and he’ll lose support.

Someone could try and pick up the mantle, but I believe he has a unique skill set that can’t be replicated.

If he loses.... a HUGE if.... then a lot of folks will slink away back under their rock, die off, and lose focus as their lives and drug addictions continue to get worse.

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31184

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4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:


I would argue that the people who vote against their interests actually think they are voting for their interests. They just are too dumb to realize it.

Oh true.  ChiTownDoc said it well:  they're voting for a possibility that is someone else's reality, not their reality.  And it is becoming an increasingly unlikely reality for them.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45513

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8 minutes ago, thepop said:

538 and others don’t make polls, they give odds based on polls. They said Biden has a 90% chance or so because so much could go wrong and he could still win. As we saw, NC, FL, and maybe GA went wrong and Biden is going to win.

 

They were right. Blame the pollsters for places like NC not the odds people.

Who is blaming 538?

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Thiefery

Thiefery 4960

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This guy in a cowboy hat on MSNBC is bringing up some good points about FL and the Latino vote.  There is so much misinformation by the republicans out there they played it well. From airing spanish commercials about what Biden was going to do, feeding into the fear tactic.  Then how a lot of money was spent on flipping white voters to Trump, and a very small fraction of that money on actual Latino voters.

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immamac

immamac 42492

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Posted
Just now, LTbear said:

So is Georgia still realistically possible, or would the remaining votes have to be ridiculously Biden-leaning?

GA is still likely biden. ATLANTA is what's left. Stop dooming about if he won or not he clearly didn't win. Biden is cruising to a victory that is a lot closer than it should have been if America cared about America. 

Democrats have shown that they don't have the real fight in them. They are going to fall into the GOP narrative of changing the rules for party. 

The problem with changing the rules for party, is they should be changing the rules for America. The 2 party system is so broken that a huge amount of people voted for a president with literally no platform. The GOP has literally no platform. Think about that for a second, that is a failed state. Democrats just have to add in their no platform and then poof. 

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TrashMaster G

TrashMaster G 17379

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21 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I was wrong to have faith in my state. 
 

Not flipping the Texas house may be the most disappointing thing for Texans. Apparently didn’t pick up one seat. 

Thinking TX would flip in this election was a pipe dream.  But, it will be a battleground State in '24.  And worth another 2 or 3 EV in that election.

We're gonna get killed with ads.

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Horn Dog

Horn Dog 9644

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2 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

100k with mostly Atlanta and EVs left counting?  Yea, I'd say its possible.  

But trump is up by 103k votes.  There are only a little over 100k outstanding votes.  Is it really realistic to expect near 100% of those to go Biden?

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gmr548

gmr548 16463

Posted
Posted
40% of 1.4M is 560K, which would not quite be enough.  (980K - 420K)
I realize you're roughing it in, but it's a long path to victory, and of course it would be challenged.

Yeah I was paraphrasing the reporting. I think it was Nate Cohn they had the actual numbers from the SOS office, but the point was of the trend holds Biden would win. Who knows if it will.
So is Georgia still realistically possible, or would the remaining votes have to be ridiculously Biden-leaning?

It’s possible. Certainly no guarantee. Outstanding votes are from heavily democratic areas. It’ll be very close either way. NYT needle is fairly confident he’ll get over the line.
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LTbear

LTbear 4152

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Posted
Just now, immamac said:

GA is still likely biden. ATLANTA is what's left. Stop dooming about if he won or not he clearly didn't win. Biden is cruising to a victory that is a lot closer than it should have been if America cared about America. 

Democrats have shown that they don't have the real fight in them. They are going to fall into the GOP narrative of changing the rules for party. 

The problem with changing the rules for party, is they should be changing the rules for America. The 2 party system is so broken that a huge amount of people voted for a president with literally no platform. The GOP has literally no platform. Think about that for a second, that is a failed state. Democrats just have to add in their no platform and then poof. 

Who's dooming? Just asking, as someone who actually went to sleep early.

Long had problems with the two party system.

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