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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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C-Man

C-Man 27254

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6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I like how Fox News is the only cable channel with Biden sitting at 264 (with Trump at 214).

lol, Fox has Zona but CNN/MSNBC doesn’t 

Seems they did, in fact, call it way early last night and have refused to pull it off the board. I'm not really sure why.

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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

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SimonBolivar

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You know, I'm going to go opposite of @Brisketexanright now. I think the GOP is going to jettison Trump if he loses this election. They did better down ballot than expected and better than Trump did from what I can see. He does have quite a few cult of personality fans, but they aren't switching to Kamala Harris if she runs against Tom Cotton in 2024. You can kind of see it on TV right now.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54377

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Where The Outstanding Presidential Races Stand, From Most Likely Trump Win To Least Likely Trump Win

Nate here. Stepping back into the saddle here for the rest of the day after a brief rest. I’m going to give you a rundown of how I’m currently seeing the states where we still don’t have projections, even though it might be a little redundant with what we’ve written earlier.

But here’s where the presidential race stands from most likely Trump win to least likely Trump win:

North Carolina. Trump leads by 1.4 points or about 77,000 votes, but mail ballots can arrive after Election Day in North Carolina, so perhaps 5 percent of the vote is still outstanding. The mail vote should be pretty blue in North Carolina, but is it enough to flip the state? Probably not, according to The Upshot’s needle, which gave Biden about a 15 percent chance in North Carolina before it was frozen. I’d call this one Likely Trump, although 15 percent chances aren’t zero, obviously!

Georgia. Trump leads by 78,000 votes without around 200,000 votes outstanding (there’s some uncertainty over the exact number). That seems like a tall order for Biden, but the remaining vote is expected to be very blue: mail votes from blue counties plus some Election Day votes from predominantly Black precincts in blue counties. The Upshot’s needle actually had Biden slightly favored to pull it off as of last night. We’ll know more soon. Let’s say Tossup but you could force me into Lean Biden if you told me I had to make a pick.

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

Arizona. We may need to do a longer post on Arizona later. What’s left to count is mostly mail votes that were returned late in the process — on Monday or Tuesday. There’s some ambiguity about how many ballots this actually is; Edison Research seems to think around 450,000. If so, Trump would need to win those votes by 21 points to overtake Biden’s current 93,000-vote lead. They’re disrupted fairly evenly throughout the state.

Wait — outstanding mail votes? Shouldn’t those be good for Biden, as in other states? Well, not necessarily, because Republicans have a fairly strong mail voting program in Arizona and — this is the key part — the mail ballots that were returned later in the process (the ones yet to be continued) were significantly redder than the ones that came in earlier on, as Democrats sent their votes in early. For instance, the party registration of the votes that came in Monday and Tuesday were: 23 percent Democratic, 44 percent Republican, and 33 percent independent or other parties. That is to say, a 21-point GOP edge, which would put Trump on track to tie things up.

But … here’s the bad news for Trump. Party registration may be a misleading indicator in Arizona. It has a lot of ancestral Republicans who have now turned into swing voters. Biden also had a big lead among independents in polls. And earlier batches of mail ballots were considerably stronger for Biden than party registration alone would suggest. So probably these ballots are going to come in more for Trump than for Biden, but not as strongly as he needs.

There’s also the fact that two other news organizations, the Associated Press and Fox News, have called the state for Biden. I’d assume they’ve put more work into looking into this than I have, so that shifts my priors a bit, but you never know and you will get incorrect calls occasionally. Overall, I’d say this is Likely Biden but I don’t think the state should have been called yet.

Nevada. This one’s a bit more straightforward. Biden leads by only 0.6 percent or about 7,500 votes. But what’s remaining should be pretty good for him. It’s all mail-in ballots that were either received late in the process or which are still coming in — in Nevada, mail ballots can be received by Nov. 10 provided they’re postmarked by Election Day. The mail ballots were quite blue in Nevada by party registration, much more so than in Arizona, including votes that arrived relatively late in the process. Likely Biden.

Michigan. Biden is ahead, leading by around 61,000 votes or 1.2 percentage points. His lead has been growing and given what votes are outstanding, is likely to grow further. Likely Biden.

Wisconsin. No known votes left to be counted. The Trump campaign says it will seek a recount, but recounts rarely change results, and certainly not with something on the magnitude of Biden’s 20,000-vote lead. Biden is the “apparent winner,” per ABC News.

 

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'stache

'stache 21836

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2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

You know, I'm going to go opposite of @Brisketexanright now. I think the GOP is going to jettison Trump if he loses this election. They did better down ballot than expected and better than Trump did from what I can see. He does have quite a few cult of personality fans, but they aren't switching to Kamala Harris if she runs against Tom Cotton in 2024. You can kind of see it on TV right now.

I was hoping it would be a landslide for Biden, in which case the GOP would pretend like the little trump thing didn't really happen. He clearly still has a lot of pull with the voters, so he won't be going anywhere. He may even run again in 2024 and the gop will be his little sheep as long as he's still riling up the idiots.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54377

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3 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I tuned into Fox for the first time in a long time after Trump’s speech last night to see how they would excuse it.  Bret Baier made a pathetic attempt (“he was actually completely accurate in stating the current margin of his lead in Pennsylvania” - yeah, because that was the important part).   The rest were actually a lot better than I expected.   You can tell some of them like Chris Wallace and Dana Perino actually want Trump gone, but they have to bite their tongues because Fox.  

Didn't see that, but saw Baier criticizing Trump this morning for the speech.  

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

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1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I was hoping it would be a landslide for Biden, in which case the GOP would pretend like the little trump thing didn't really happen. He clearly still has a lot of pull with the voters, so he won't be going anywhere. He may even run again in 2024 and the gop will be his little sheep as long as he's still riling up the idiots.

That's what I've been predicting for the past year.

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sidis

sidis 9832

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5 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I'd like to know Fox News' game plane here.

There was absolutely nothing stopping them from playing it safe at all, and being extremely conservative on calling states.

They know they have got to be causing Trump and his followers to lose their shit.

I don't think they do this unless they know for certain, based on data they have, that Biden will win, because if Trump somehow came from behind and won, then he and his followers will constantly shit on Fox News for being the first to make it look like he lost.

Like I said earlier, I'm guessing they know he's lost, and that he will be competing with them, with his Trump TV or whatever.  He won't get shit for giving phone interviews or going whatever with Fox News, but his people could setup a little Alex Jones's style studio at Mar-A-Lago, let him get on and vent about whatever he feels like, and collect 100% of the ad revenue and subscription fees.

also consider that fnc also benefits quite a bit from a democratic president.  it's like this board...when obama was president, all the republicans would come on here and make their version of brisket's histrionics on a daily basis but with a much smaller relative basis to do so than trump.  trying to come on here and defend trump is a fool's errand because so much of who he is remains utterly indefensible and so they just kind of ignore the board and pretend like its a cesspool because they know there is no way to actively defend their preferred leadership's governing.  so you are only left with the trolls and simpleton dipshits like workswithweed, slorch, and grhorn.  once biden takes over, we will see the return of the republican objector to this board saying that biden is destroying western civilization every day.

same principle applies to fnc. while the initial trump surge was entertaining from the owning the libs perspective for his voters, they probably didn't engage with fnc the same way because you just kind of want to avoid the non-stop shenanigans.  once the opposition is in power, that changes.

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 12042

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1 minute ago, Beau Vine said:

Didn't see that, but saw Baier criticizing Trump this morning for the speech.  

They have to first check with the bosses about the criticism. They wouldn’t do it in real time. Other republicans came out against the speech so they knew it would be ok to be against the president on this one.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21866

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12 minutes ago, Horn Dogg said:

I wonder if Fox is trying to jump onto Biden’s coat tails early knowing that the Trump gravy train is done?

Another aggy thread about how Fox has gone MSM and they are all abandoning it.  Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to OAN we go.

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bolverk

bolverk 29708

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6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The news gathering organization is actually excellent.

I read a glowing article a few weeks ago about their vote count guru over there, who is apparently nails when it comes to calling elections. The premise of the article was about how the editorial side of their organization might try to put pressure on him to call states for Trump, and he was emphatically defiant in stating they would hold no sway over him. It's apparently the same guy that Turd Blossom went to go see in his fit of rage during a live broadcast when he declared Obama the winner in 2012. 

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UTDD

UTDD 362

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5 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

If let’s say just 75% of it comes in like the trend.  Biden would win by about 150k votes.

Math is pretty easy there if accurate.  A 2:1 ratio would be 600/300, so Biden needs to do a little better than that ratio.  (if #'s right)

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Yev Kassem

Yev Kassem 1031

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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

i've now been watching cnn nonstop for about 35 hours.  i have no idea who's going to win the election, but i'm definitely interested in getting a reverse mortgage.

Don’t even try to convince Tom Selleck that a reverse mortgage tries to take advantage of American seniors. 

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