2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Hookah Horns 3089]

2 hours ago, MirrOlure said:

So...Biden’s speech today was like watching Courso on Game Day the last two years. Seriously....I think he’s had at least one stroke.

Interesting. I didn't watch it but just read that it was gaffe-free and solid. 

[Bateshorn 9991]

Look, for the progressives, I get it: Joe is a Traditional centrist Democrat.  He’s gotten more progressive over the last year in his rhetoric, but he’s got at least a bit of stale New Democrat smell on him.  
 

But if everyone turns out and votes Democrat from Dogcatcher on up, he’s going to have a pretty progressive DC to work with.  It may not be hard left, but it’s going to be more progressive than we’ve seen in our lifetime. I’m already hearing rumors that GOP lobbyists on K street are being told to freshen their resumes because change is in the air.
 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

5 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The democratic base is progressives. The Black voters that got Biden the nomination are not moderate or right leaning dems.  The problem is the Republican Party is so crazy right wing that democrats feel like they have to run candidates already compromised to win elections.  And Bernie’s insurgency campaigns didn’t do a whole lot of favors in the short term for progressives because they now get ostracized by establishment dems as part of that leftist/socialist group when in reality they just want some progress away from our military/police/prison for profit state. 

This paragraph is a result of living in an Elizabeth Warren Twitter echo chamber.

[Bookman 4763]

8 hours ago, Tuco said:

Regarding enthusiasm....
I absolutely care more about removing Trump than I do about elevating Biden. But my level of passion about removing Trump is higher than any enthusiasm I have had for any candidate ever. JFK could have come out of secret cryogenic freeze, with Lincoln as his running mate, and I’d still would care more about removing Trump from office. It’s not a knock on Biden that my main focus is getting rid of Trump. We are in a dangerous situation and that danger needs to end. Biden is the guy to do it. Cool.

OMG this. We have got to get that fat fucking piece of shit out of the Oval Office. And fuck everyone who voted for that immoral, incompetent, corrupt, failed businessman. If you voted for Trump I'm ashamed to share a country with you.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Bookman

[Voldemort86 2259]

2 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Look, for the progressives, I get it: Joe is a Traditional centrist Democrat.  He’s gotten more progressive over the last year in his rhetoric, but he’s got at least a bit of stale New Democrat smell on him.  
 

But if everyone turns out and votes Democrat from Dogcatcher on up, he’s going to have a pretty progressive DC to work with.  It may not be hard left, but it’s going to be more progressive than we’ve seen in our lifetime. I’m already hearing rumors that GOP lobbyists on K street are being told to freshen their resumes because change is in the air.
 

 

This is pretty on point.

the upcoming election isn’t just about getting rid of trump. It needs to be a resounding rebuke of the Republican Party. For years, those guys enabled trump, ignored his lies, and downplayed his craziness. 
 

For the good of this country, we need to vote out or remove as many republicans from the political world as humanly possible.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5169]

8 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think "a vanilla corporatist Dem" misstates it somewhat.  Joe Biden is, and has always been, a generic Democrat.  And that's a feature, not a bug.  He has consistently put himself in the middle of where the party is, ideologically.  It may be one of his great talents as a politician--sensing where the middle of the Democratic road is and putting himself squarely there.

For that reason, I don't think progressives ought to be too worried about a Biden presidency.  The middle of the Democratic road right now is left of where it was under Obama and faaar left of where it was under Clinton.  And that's where Biden is going to govern from.

And don’t forget the Biden was the one that publicly pushed the Dems left by announcing that he and Obama both supported marriage equality. It wasnt until he did that that you started to see Democratic politicians in large numbers start to agree it was the right move to make. He has the ability to pivot to meet the situation and he’ll hire a staff that will for the most part avoid being drunk at the wheel. He’s going to look like a superhero when he’s compared to his predecessor. 

Edited July 1, 2020 by NameAlreadyInUse

[henrygandorf 29225]

7 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

He doesn't need to do a fucking thing, except stay alive.  

even this part isn’t a deal-breaker for most of us. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

8 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

This paragraph is a result of living in an Elizabeth Warren Twitter echo chamber.

Perhaps but the only difference I see between a progressive democrat and a non-progressive democrat is the non-progressive is more interested in blocking republicans than advancing any ideas. 

[Pancho 46309]

Not sure I buy this...

 

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

Jon Cooper is a Twitter Resistance jackass/grifter.  Pay zero attention to him. 

 

 

 

 

[4th&Five 42005]

 

[Horndog 2295]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is pretty on point.

the upcoming election isn’t just about getting rid of trump. It needs to be a resounding rebuke of the Republican Party. For years, those guys enabled trump, ignored his lies, and downplayed his craziness. 
 

For the good of this country, we need to vote out or remove as many republicans from the political world as humanly possible.

I first voted in the Nixon-McGovern election.  I have voted in every presidential election and almost every off-year election since then.  Never have I voted a straight ticket. I have voted for Republicans for trial and appellate courts, JPs, state House and Senate, Congress, etc.  I have always at least tried to educate myself a little on the candidates running for office.  Not this year, and likely for the foreseeable future.  I will vote for Dems and only Dems, and it barely matters what they actually stand for.  Ever single politician with the designation of "R" is complicit in the Trump Travesty.  They all need to go.  The only possible exception would be if John McCain rose from the dead. 

[The Dog 44861]

44 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

That's a great article that digs into the data and illustrates why Trump is in so much trouble. He needed to expand on his support in the states where he won closely and he's done the opposite. He's done just enough to alienate his "weak support" to the point that they won't vote for him.

 

[Gap03 3386]

Was just flipping through the 538 polling averages (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/) and I guess I hadn't realized the growth of Biden's consistent leads in battleground states.  I put together the following map based on current polling averages, with only states with polling averages >5% in favor of Biden as Lean D and everything from +5 to -1 as toss-ups.  Obviously, the Rs are going to try to cheat like hell in AZ, WI and FL, and a lot can happen over 4 months in this simulation, but this looks astonishingly bad for Trump. My dream is that Biden will win with 400+ EVs, but I'll sure as shit take 270.

 

 

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

1 minute ago, Gap03 said:

Was just flipping through the 538 polling averages (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/) and I guess I hadn't realized the growth of Biden's consistent leads in battleground states.  I put together the following map based on current polling averages, with only states with polling averages >5% in favor of Biden as Lean D and everything from +5 to -1 as toss-ups.  Obviously, the Rs are going to try to cheat like hell in AZ, WI and FL, and a lot can happen over 4 months in this simulation, but this looks astonishingly bad for Trump. My dream is that Biden will win with 400+ EVs, but I'll sure as shit take 270.

 

 

 

it's a wet dream right now. we gotta stay focused for a few more months

[wildcat09 29579]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

This really isn't doing anything to sway my "swing voters are the stupidest fucking people on earth" belief. I love that these people disapprove of his handling of covid but still generally approve of his handling of the economy, like his shitty handling of covid had nothing to do with our economy getting crushed. 

[The Dog 44861]

16 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

Was just flipping through the 538 polling averages (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/arizona/) and I guess I hadn't realized the growth of Biden's consistent leads in battleground states.  I put together the following map based on current polling averages, with only states with polling averages >5% in favor of Biden as Lean D and everything from +5 to -1 as toss-ups.  Obviously, the Rs are going to try to cheat like hell in AZ, WI and FL, and a lot can happen over 4 months in this simulation, but this looks astonishingly bad for Trump. My dream is that Biden will win with 400+ EVs, but I'll sure as shit take 270.

 

 

 

I'd recommend just leaving Texas red until more polls come out showing any real shift. It's tighter now because Trump is fucking that goat hard but it's still a very conservative state. 

[A-Tex Devil 2500]

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

This really isn't doing anything to sway my "swing voters are the stupidest fucking people on earth" belief. I love that these people disapprove of his handling of covid but still generally approve of his handling of the economy, like his shitty handling of covid had nothing to do with our economy getting crushed. 

Yeah, but to your point, these same idiots only look at the Dow to determine how the economy is doing.  They could get laid off and pension wiped out, but if the Dow is over 25K, Trump did his job.

Edited July 1, 2020 by A-Tex Devil

[henrygandorf 29225]

this morning's check-in with predictit:

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'd recommend just leaving Texas red until more polls come out showing any real shift. It's tighter now because Trump is fucking that goat hard but it's still a very conservative state. 

Texas is conservative in rural areas. It's blue and getting bluer in big cities/counties. The shift is happening as we speak. 

Hillary lost by 9 points to Trump in 2016. Biden should close that gap to 4-5 points at worst, and he's got a fighter's chance at winning the state if these disastrous days don't get better by November. 

 

[Chuckie Finster 23075]

6 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

this morning's check-in with predictit:

I don't like to throw around the term "free money," but uhhhh..... 

[gmr548 16701]

I'd recommend just leaving Texas red until more polls come out showing any real shift. It's tighter now because Trump is fucking that goat hard but it's still a very conservative state. 

Based on RCP's list of polls going back to February 2019, there is one poll, in October 2019, with Trump leading outside the MoE; he got 46 percent in that poll. Biden came out on top of four polls pre covid. They've both hit 50 percent one time. There's obviously the most recent FOX News poll showing not just Biden winning slightly, but a huge gap between Trump and Cornyn.

The data you want to wait for has actually been saying Texas is competitive a lot longer than anyone has really been buying that idea. I'm in agreement you that I'll believe Texas flips when I see it, but dismissing the idea that it's in play based on lack of data is pretty clearly not supported.

[The Dog 44861]

8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Texas is conservative in rural areas. It's blue and getting bluer in big cities/counties. The shift is happening as we speak. 

Hillary lost by 9 points to Trump in 2016. Biden should close that gap to 4-5 points at worst, and he's got a fighter's chance at winning the state if these disastrous days don't get better by November. 

 

yeah but how much of that is the state really turning blue and how much of it is Trump? I think it's more the latter. 

[henrygandorf 29225]

2 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I don't like to throw around the term "free money," but uhhhh..... 

i like how predictit does subtle things like on the "trump wins any state he lost" trump looks happy, but on the "trump loses any states he won", trump looks sad.

[henrygandorf 29225]

Just now, The Dog said:

yeah but how much of that is the state really turning blue and how much of it is Trump? I think it's more the latter. 

big cities around the country are mostly blue and the ones that aren't are trending in that direction.  texas has a lot of big cities.  it's not just trump.

[gmr548 16701]

yeah but how much of that is the state really turning blue and how much of it is Trump? I think it's more the latter. 

In a specific discussion of the EC map, the Tump thing is pretty relavent.

 

[Hank Kingsley 21784]

Harris County has gone Obama, Obama, Clinton in the last three GEs. 

Hillary won Harris County by over 200k votes. IMO Biden will at least double that this year. 

 

Edited July 1, 2020 by Hank Kingsley

[The Dog 44861]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

In a specific discussion of the EC map, the Tump thing is pretty relavent.

 

agreed, but I think Trump's attempts to label Biden as "too liberal" may work well enough in Texas to hold it. It doesn't mean he's going to win re-election, just Texas. 

I reserve the right to change my mind if I see more evidence of a swing to Biden, but right now a single poll with Biden leading within the margin of error isn't enough. So I think it's safe to assume Trump is winning Texas until more evidence is presented to the contrary.

[TwiceHorn 32079]

In the final analysis, I just don't see Trump picking up any supporters.  Sure he has his base, but I don't see anyone who wasn't all-in on Trump in '16 voting for him in '20.

[gmr548 16701]

agreed, but I think Trump's attempts to label Biden as "too liberal" may work well enough in Texas to hold it. It doesn't mean he's going to win re-election, just Texas. 
I reserve the right to change my mind if I see more evidence of a swing to Biden, but right now a single poll with Biden leading within the margin of error isn't enough. So I think it's safe to assume Trump is winning Texas until more evidence is presented to the contrary.

Well no one asserted Biden is going to win Texas, what was shown in the post you quoted, and I tried to explain further, is that it's a tossup. It can't be assumed a Trump lock much more than it is a Biden lock. That is really the only data-based conclusion you can make right now.

[Hiphopopotamos 21191]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

the texas thing is trying to predict the future when the movement is currently happening.  it feels like it is a R state if the status quo is the status quo.  but the likelihood of crazy bottom falling out sort of behavior in the next 6 months is high enough that it is worth discussing. 

[Brisketexan 106898]

14 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

In the final analysis, I just don't see Trump picking up any supporters.  Sure he has his base, but I don't see anyone who wasn't all-in on Trump in '16 voting for him in '20.

It's not about numbers of supporters.  It's about how rabid they are, and how they turnout.

I think that the psychotic sociopaths who make up the Trump base will show up at a better than 90% turnout rate.

Even if they are only 40% of the people, that can beat an opposition that gets a 55% turnout rate.

It's all about turnout now.  That's it.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

It's not about numbers of supporters.  It's about how rabid they are, and how they turnout.

I think that the psychotic sociopaths who make up the Trump base will show up at a better than 90% turnout rate.

Even if they are only 40% of the people, that can beat an opposition that gets a 55% turnout rate.

It's all about turnout now.  That's it.

the other side turns out too.  the 2018 out front should have told ya.

[Brisketexan 106898]

Just now, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the other side turns out too.  the 2018 out front should have told ya.

I'll believe it when I see it in 2020.

[henrygandorf 29225]

11 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

any map that lists the "uncertain" states as ohio, iowa, and georgia tells me all i need to know.

let's fucking go.

[SmokeyTheBear 5569]

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

the other side turns out too.  the 2018 out front should have told ya.

Yeah, but who from each side will want to hang out in lines for hours during a pandemic? The side who thinks its a mild flu and refuses to wear masks or the ones who know the risks and do everything they can to mitigate that risk? I know I will willingly stand in line all day with a mask but who else will? Especially if they think that Biden will win big due to how poll numbers are looking (2016 anyone?). 

[A-Tex Devil 2500]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'll believe it when I see it in 2020.

Right.  The biggest part of a "Biden sure thing" narrative is people thinking they don't have to show up because it's in the bag.  

[The Dog 44861]

16 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

27 minutes ago, The Dog said:

agreed, but I think Trump's attempts to label Biden as "too liberal" may work well enough in Texas to hold it. It doesn't mean he's going to win re-election, just Texas. 
I reserve the right to change my mind if I see more evidence of a swing to Biden, but right now a single poll with Biden leading within the margin of error isn't enough. So I think it's safe to assume Trump is winning Texas until more evidence is presented to the contrary.

Well no one asserted Biden is going to win Texas, what was shown in the post you quoted, and I tried to explain further, is that it's a tossup. It can't be assumed a Trump lock much more than it is a Biden lock. That is really the only data-based conclusion you can make right now.

I'm just saying if I were doing any modeling on 270towin that I'd go ahead and put Texas in Trump's column. I get your point but this state still sent Dan fucking Patrick to the legislature on a statewide vote. 

[WBT 20975]

Yeah, trump turnout is going to be worse than antitrump turnout, generally and in Texas.  I do think it's more about Trump than the state turning blue though.  Trump ran about 1.5 points better than Cruz did in 2018 but about 3 points behind what Abbot did.  This time I think he wins Texas by 1-2 points but I think whoever the R candidate is in 2024 will have a better showing.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

4 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Right.  The biggest part of a "Biden sure thing" narrative is people thinking they don't have to show up because it's in the bag.  

people keep saying this. we've seen nothing but upward turnout since 2016. I don't think that changes - especially with something like 4M people turning 18 by the time the election rolls around

[henrygandorf 29225]

4 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

people keep saying this. we've seen nothing but upward turnout since 2016. I don't think that changes - especially with something like 4M people turning 18 by the time the election rolls around

also olds tend to die.  just sayin.

[StassneyHorn 6773]

One thing that gets overlooked in 2016 was  the gap being 9% was with Hilldawg on the ticket instead of any other generic D. If it was any other Dem do you think it would’ve been closer or a larger win? I’m firmly in the camp that it would’ve been closer. The growth in the state can’t be underestimated.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/texas/article/Voter-registrations-growing-at-faster-rate-along-15029581.php

“In 2014, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, a Republican, won those 22 counties by more than 350,000 votes. But in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton won the corridor by more than 115,000 votes en route to posting the best statewide showing for a presidential candidate in Texas in more than 20 years.

In 2018, Democrats made further gains in the corridor. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz lost those counties by 440,000 votes in narrowly defeating O’Rourke. That nearly 800,000-vote swing along the “blue spine“ helped make the race closer than any U.S. Senate race in more than 20 years in Texas.”

[Voldemort86 2259]

37 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

also olds tend to die.  just sayin.

How many times do I have to state this?
 

olds in rural part of Texas who die are great news for people who want this state to flip blue. The long and the short of it is that the folks in Texas rural areas who vote 90% GOP across the board aren’t being replaced, while people are registering to vote in droves in all of Texas largest blue counties by comparison. Texas is rapidly on its way to becoming purple and that’s awful news for idiots like Dan Patrick who try to be as conservative as humanly possible.

Edited July 1, 2020 by Voldemort86

[henrygandorf 29225]

also we’re steadily sending mercenaries from california to complete operation “turn texas blue”.

then they’ll all move back i’m sure.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 34106]

4 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

also we’re steadily sending mercenaries from california to complete operation “turn texas blue”.

then they’ll all move back i’m sure.  

I would if I were them. if something doesn't change soon I will be right there with them

[Bateshorn 9991]

Kush taking a more active role in the campaign;

[Red Five 41738]

30 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Kush taking a more active role in the campaign;

I guess he finished up his to-do list of peace in the middle east and shit. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

[Biff Tannen 46166]

4 hours ago, SmokeyTheBear said:

Yeah, but who from each side will want to hang out in lines for hours during a pandemic? The side who thinks its a mild flu and refuses to wear masks or the ones who know the risks and do everything they can to mitigate that risk? I know I will willingly stand in line all day with a mask but who else will? Especially if they think that Biden will win big due to how poll numbers are looking (2016 anyone?). 

This is why early voting is so important.