2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[bad_teammate 13479]

Is keeping Biden back a strategy or a necessity? It's an important distinction.

Is it even possible for a Biden-forward campaign to be workable?

[Ghost of LL 15664]

19 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Biden can stay out of the limelight right now. That's fine.

But in the meantime, his campaign should be staffing up and his digital operation needs to strengthen significantly. Neither is happening. And he's not raising that much money, which has been in issue for his campaign the entire primary. 

Which is why I don't worry much about the "where's Joe" concern trolls.

I think the fundraising is fine.  I mean, $47M in one month is pretty good.  And he wasn't the presumptive nominee for some at least some of the month.  Trump is going to have more money (depending on what happens with Bloomberg), but one has to wonder whether it will really matter.  I mean, there is definitely a law of diminishing returns at some point with campaign ads.

I so share your concern with staffing and digital operation.  Those need to be expanded this spring.

3 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Is keeping Biden back a strategy or a necessity? It's an important distinction.

Is it even possible for a Biden-forward campaign to be workable?

Perhaps a strategy born of necessity?

[Horndog 2293]

On 4/21/2020 at 8:06 AM, Mo Horn said:

Nathan Fillion gif appropriate. 

Question:  John and Jim each contribute $1.00 to a political action group.  Betsy contributes $2.00 to the same group. What is the average donation amount?  Hint:  Your answer must be in even dollars.

[Horn Dogg 4277]

28 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Which is why I don't worry much about the "where's Joe" concern trolls.

I think the fundraising is fine.  I mean, $47M in one month is pretty good.  And he wasn't the presumptive nominee for some at least some of the month.  Trump is going to have more money (depending on what happens with Bloomberg), but one has to wonder whether it will really matter.  I mean, there is definitely a law of diminishing returns at some point with campaign ads.

I so share your concern with staffing and digital operation.  Those need to be expanded this spring.

Perhaps a strategy born of necessity?

I wonder what would happen if Biden stayed quiet until Election Day and just went with his name being on the ballot with no further campaigning?   Not that this would ever happen, but I would still vote for him against Trump.

[bad_teammate 13479]

41 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Perhaps a strategy born of necessity?

Absolutely.

We just have to hope that it never comes down to having to get voters excited about our candidate. Which is fucking scary.

[Pancho 46054]

 

[Bama Chick 28596]

The replies to that Brett Baier tweet are....something else.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

Oof.

[JimmyJames 12271]

9 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

White, suburban, former republican here. There are some that are just anti-trump and will go back. Most of us will never pull the R lever again though. The shift in the burbs actually began before trump, he just accelerated it.

When I moved to Wilco 10 years ago, it was bright red. My neighborhood polling place was almost as 50/50 as you could get in 2016. I would be shocked if Biden doesn’t win by 20+ points this time. 

Wilco is dem now. Not by a lot but enough. I never thought that day would ever come.

Thats why I think trump loses Texas and Anastasis cuts me a check, but I guess we shall see.

[gmr548 16681]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

What always shocks me in these polls is that 10 percent or so are undecided. It blows my mind that 10 percent of America has not made up their mind on Trump, for better or worse. I think you have to assume a lot of that is silent Trumpkins. So seeing Biden approach 50 percent is good.

 

[Jack Straw 2955]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

What always shocks me in these polls is that 10 percent or so are undecided. It blows my mind that 10 percent of America has not made up their mind on Trump, for better or worse. I think you have to assume a lot of that is silent Trumpkins. So seeing Biden approach 50 percent is good.

 

Undecided = too embarrassed to admit they are voting for Trump.

[gmr548 16681]

4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Wilco is dem now. Not by a lot but enough. I never thought that day would ever come.

Thats why I think trump loses Texas and Anastasis cuts me a check, but I guess we shall see.

Wilco has historically been a pretty good bellwether for the state. Trump won by 10 there with 52 percent. Yes, Beto eeked it out, but that was wine moms and a motivated Democratic electorate. Abbott won by nine with 54 percent. I think it'll be close, but Trump probably still carries it. 10 points is a lot of ground to make up in four years.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

The replies to that Brett Baier tweet are....something else.

This pretty much sums up his cult. 
 

 

 

 

 

 N~a~n~c~y 

 

 

 

@brewer_ns

·

53m

 

No way I believe that.

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Wilco has historically been a pretty good bellwether for the state. Trump won by 10 there with 52 percent. Yes, Beto eeked it out, but that was wine moms and a motivated Democratic electorate. Abbott won by nine with 54 percent. I think it'll be close, but Trump probably still carries it. 10 points is a lot of ground to make up in four years.

Respectfully disagree. Those wine moms have multiplied and with trump on the ballot, it’s gonna be an absolute white suburban woman slaughter. Yes their dumbass husbands will mitigate it somewhat but I’m predicting Wilco goes 55-45 in favor of Biden. If that happens Biden wins Texas.

[Ghost of LL 15664]

2 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I’m predicting Wilco goes 55-45 in favor of Biden.

Oh, I think I would take that bet.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Oh, I think I would take that bet.

Against or for?

[Biff Tannen 46061]

Are you fer it or agin it?

[gmr548 16681]

3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Respectfully disagree. Those wine moms have multiplied and with trump on the ballot, it’s gonna be an absolute white suburban woman slaughter. Yes their dumbass husbands will mitigate it somewhat but I’m predicting Wilco goes 55-45 in favor of Biden. If that happens Biden wins Texas.

You're bold to put money on that. Hope you're right, but sounds like Anastasis is getting paid.

 

[Biff Tannen 46061]

#teamjimmy

[cactusflinthead 27626]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Wilco has historically been a pretty good bellwether for the state. Trump won by 10 there with 52 percent. Yes, Beto eeked it out, but that was wine moms and a motivated Democratic electorate. Abbott won by nine with 54 percent. I think it'll be close, but Trump probably still carries it. 10 points is a lot of ground to make up in four years.

Y'know what I'm motivated about this time around? Voting the Dotard out. I'm not the only one. Biden is not Hillary. That's not going to cause the instabitch reaction that we saw in suburban women. People were willing to stand in line in Wisconsin for a vote on their Supreme Court. 2018 wasn't that long ago. We're madder now. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

You're bold to put money on that. Hope you're right, but sounds like Anastasis is getting paid.

 

In my defense I got odds.  73-28. Not sure why it doesn’t add up to 100 exactly but whatever.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

54 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Wilco is dem now. Not by a lot but enough. I never thought that day would ever come.

Thats why I think trump loses Texas and Anastasis cuts me a check, but I guess we shall see.

Wilco overall is dem. My state rep is Bucy who is a dem and really good at his job. My individual polling location was as close to 50/50 as you could get in 2016. I would bet my rona check that it’s 60-40 Biden or more. Some olds that moved in from Alabama are the only people I know willing to admit they will vote for trump. There are certainty more that will cast their vote in silence but my gut tells me he loses this hood bigly.

Edited April 23, 2020 by Larry T. Spider

[gmr548 16681]

9 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Wilco overall is dem. My state rep is Bucy who is a dem and really good at his job. My individual polling location was as close to 50/50 as you could get in 2016. I would bet my rona check that it’s 60-40 Biden or more. Some olds that moved in from Alabama are the only people I know willing to admit they will vote for trump. There are certainty more that will cast their vote in silence but my gut tells me he loses this hood bigly.

Wilco voted for Dan Patrick, calling it an overall Democratic county is dead right there. Abbott and Trump both cruised. Olds in Georgetown love them some Trump and plenty of WIlco is still hick/good ol' boy as fuck. I know it's getting competitive, even faster than Texas as a whole, but calling it a blue county is a stretch right now.

[JimmyJames 12271]

10 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Wilco overall is dem. My state rep is Bucy who is a dem and really good at his job. My individual polling location was as close to 50/50 as you could get in 2016. I would bet my rona check that it’s 60-40 Biden or more. Some olds that moved in from Alabama are the only people I know willing to admit they will vote for trump. There are certainty more that will cast their vote in silence but my gut tells me he loses this hood bigly.

Yep. The republicans have lost the Texas suburbs and it seems that Texas republicans like Abbott and yes even that dumbass Dan Patrick, at times, seem to realize what that means.

For years now the Texas Democratic Party has waited and waited for the day that Hispanics in the valley would wake up and turn the state dem. That never happened and still hasn’t happened. That assumption was based, in my opinion, on a fundamental misunderstanding of the difference between Texas Hispanics and Hispanics in most of the rest of the country. Watch the movie Lone Star by John Sayles and you can understand. Texas Hispanics, while overwhelmingly dem locally,  have a lot in common with the national Republican Party, if only they didn’t get ignored by them all the time. 

What nobody ever counted on, on both sides, was that the Texas suburbs would turn from republican to democratic. And that has happened. And that is why in my opinion Biden carries the state.

[JimmyJames 12271]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Wilco voted for Dan Patrick, calling it an overall Democratic county is dead right there. Abbott and Trump both cruised. Olds in Georgetown love them some Trump and plenty of WIlco is still hick/good ol' boy as fuck. I know it's getting competitive, even faster than Texas as a whole, but calling it a blue county is a stretch right now.

Sorry but comparing the governor race against a weak democrat candidate and the lieutenant governor race that nobody really cares about, even if they should, is foolish. 

[gmr548 16681]

10 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Sorry but comparing the governor race against a weak democrat candidate and the lieutenant governor race that nobody really cares about, even if they should, is foolish. 

The Senate race didn't have an exceptionally strong Democratic candidate vs a Republican loathed by many within his own party? If Beto is admissible, so is Abbott. Those two races show you the range of possible outcomes. D +2 to R +11 (I said nine earlier - got the numbers backwards).

Wilco was comfortably R in most of the downballot statewide races, which are the best measures of pure partisanship. Credit where it's due for not voting for Ken Paxton. It's still a Republican leaning county though.

Trump absolutely falls within the "loathed by many" category. Biden is not an exceptional candidate. Maybe hatred for Trump will be enough, but again, 10 points in one election cycle is a lot of ground to cover.

Edited April 23, 2020 by gmr548

[JimmyJames 12271]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The Senate race didn't have an exceptionally strong Democratic candidate vs a Republican loathed by many within his own party? If Beto is admissible, so is Abbott. Those two races show you the range of possible outcomes. D +2 to R +11 (I said nine earlier - got the numbers backwards).

Wilco was comfortably R in most of the downballot statewide races, which are the best measures of pure partisanship. Credit where it's due for not voting for Ken Paxton. It's still a Republican leaning county though.

Trump absolutely falls within the "loathed by many" category. Biden is not an exceptional candidate. Maybe hatred for Trump will be enough, but again, 10 points in one election cycle is a lot of ground to cover.

You make good points but while Biden is not an exceptional candidate overall in the country, he is in fact an exceptional democratic candidate, for a dem, in Texas. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by JimmyJames

[SubliminalHorn 6995]

I think another interesting county to keep an eye on is Tarrant where I currently live. Fort Worth is growing and slowly turning the county blue. Beto barely carried the county  

Edit #2: I looked closer and Beto did carry Tarrant. I’m having trouble reading tonight apparently. 

Edited April 23, 2020 by SubliminalHorn

[Message Board User 12405]

3 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I think another interesting county to keep an eye on is Tarrant where I currently live. Fort Worth is growing and slowly turning the county blue. 

 

Edit: correction that Beto did not carry the county, I thought he had

One could say that Fort Worth is exploding.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[gmr548 16681]

Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

I think another interesting county to keep an eye on is Tarrant where I currently live. It went for Beto, but not by much and this is a conservative af county. I expect trump to carry it, but Fort Worth is growing and slowly turning the county blue. 

Williamson and Tarrant are the two counties I think need to be watched closely over the next few elections. Historically both have tracked the state pretty closely. Both have a similar demographic profile to the state as a whole, though probably skew a bit whiter/more educated. Still, fast growing urban/suburban areas but also significant rural presence and roots.

When those two get to true tossup status, GOP has to really sweat. When Ds build any sort of margins there, ballgame.

[Message Board User 12405]

4 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Which is why I don't worry much about the "where's Joe" concern trolls.

I think the fundraising is fine.  I mean, $47M in one month is pretty good.  And he wasn't the presumptive nominee for some at least some of the month.  Trump is going to have more money (depending on what happens with Bloomberg), but one has to wonder whether it will really matter.  I mean, there is definitely a law of diminishing returns at some point with campaign ads.

I so share your concern with staffing and digital operation.  Those need to be expanded this spring.

Perhaps a strategy born of necessity?

To your point:

 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[henrygandorf 29221]

1 minute ago, Message Board User said:

 

that is some first-rate shade by jld.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[henrygandorf 29221]

9 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

for those unable to do the math in their head, this would be a woodshed beating.  325+ it looks like.

[gmr548 16681]

8 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

I think another interesting county to keep an eye on is Tarrant where I currently live. Fort Worth is growing and slowly turning the county blue. Beto barely carried the county  

Edit #2: I looked closer and Beto did carry Tarrant. I’m having trouble reading tonight apparently. 

He did carry Tarrant, though it was just a few thousand votes, which in a county that large is essentially a tie.

2 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Why the fuck do people keep pretending Colorado and Virginia aren't Democratic locks?

That is definitely pretty aggressive on NC - NV, CO, VA, MN,  and ME are basically Democratic locks statewide, and MI is definitely a lean. Putting in that category is a statement. I think it's generally aggressive with the midwest states too but it's not totally crazy. That map means the black vote and suburban vote are both really decisive for Biden. Definitely an argument to be made for that.

I'd call WI, PA, and NC the true tossups right now. Maybe FL but if any state finds a way to go for Trump, it's FL.

 

Just now, Message Board User said:

 

I think the Democratic strategy has to be to make Trump play defense all over the map. Swing for the fences. You can't stake the whole election on the Midwest and he's vulnerable in a lot of places. Pick off an AZ or a NC and your paths to victory multiply. Pick off both and you just have to hit the fastbreak layup in MI. Though I'm personally skeptical of the place, pick off FL and Trump is turbofucked right there. Literally any other flip wins the election.

When the President has an approval in the low 40s, which he will because he always has, you have to play the odds and go nationwide.

[gmr548 16681]

10 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

for those unable to do the math in their head, this would be a woodshed beating.  325+ it looks like.

Yeah that's an Obama 2008 level win.

Edit: Or at least close to it.  I'm a nerd but I don't have EVs memorized.

Edited April 23, 2020 by gmr548

[gmr548 16681]

46 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Yep. The republicans have lost the Texas suburbs and it seems that Texas republicans like Abbott and yes even that dumbass Dan Patrick, at times, seem to realize what that means.

For years now the Texas Democratic Party has waited and waited for the day that Hispanics in the valley would wake up and turn the state dem. That never happened and still hasn’t happened. That assumption was based, in my opinion, on a fundamental misunderstanding of the difference between Texas Hispanics and Hispanics in most of the rest of the country. Watch the movie Lone Star by John Sayles and you can understand. Texas Hispanics, while overwhelmingly dem locally,  have a lot in common with the national Republican Party, if only they didn’t get ignored by them all the time. 

What nobody ever counted on, on both sides, was that the Texas suburbs would turn from republican to democratic. And that has happened. And that is why in my opinion Biden carries the state.

South Texas consistently votes Democratic statewide. TDP has not invested in it; though, to be fair, TDP has hardly done anything, anywhere, in a generation. It's a big reason Beto lost - neither his campaign or TDP put in the work to get the kind of surge in South Texas that they did in the big four metro areas. You could kind of see this coming when Sema Hernandez got 40 percent of the primary vote, nearly all of it from South Texas. Not a very good job of bringing that group in the tent and expanding the electorate.

Texas Democrats cannot count on this suburban surge forever. When Trump is gone and the GOP whitewashes history and trots out an agreeable Romney type, many white moderates will go back. In the meantime, fuck yeah, come on in. Let's get rid of Trump. But the investment has to be made in actual Democratic constituencies because a lot of these people vote for Abbott and Republicans straight down the ballot and will do so again as soon as the GOP puts out something they find tolerable, the standard for which is likely to be lower when Democrats actually have control.

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

South Texas consistently votes Democratic statewide. TDP has not invested in it; though, to be fair, TDP has hardly done anything, anywhere, in a generation. It's a big reason Beto lost - neither his campaign or TDP put in the work to get the kind of surge in South Texas that they did in the big four metro areas. You could kind of see this coming when Sema Hernandez got 40 percent of the primary vote, nearly all of it from South Texas. Not a very good job of bringing that group in the tent and expanding the electorate.

Texas Democrats cannot count on this suburban surge forever. When Trump is gone and the GOP whitewashes history and trots out an agreeable Romney type, many white moderates will go back. In the meantime, fuck yeah, come on in. Let's get rid of Trump. But the investment has to be made in actual Democratic constituencies because a lot of these people vote for Abbott and Republicans straight down the ballot and will do so again as soon as the GOP puts out something they find tolerable, the standard for which is likely to be lower when Democrats actually have control.

You are assuming the republicans will whitewash trump. To my viewpoint, they have done the opposite. They have gone all in on trumplicanism. 

Will they change? Maybe. But that is not a safe assumption.

[gmr548 16681]

Just now, JimmyJames said:

You are assuming the republicans will whitewash trump. To my viewpoint, they have done the opposite. They have gone all in on trumplicanism. 

Will they change? Maybe. But that is not a safe assumption.

Because that's what's demanded of them by the man that executed a somewhat hostile takeover of their party and won them total control of the presidency.

If they get wiped out in the suburbs nationally, costing them the WH, possibly the Senate, and who knows what in various states, they'll change their tone. Being the overt white christian nationalist party is not a good long term play in a country where that's a minority coaliation, and a shrinking one at that. Hell it's not even been a good short term play after people saw it with full control.

I don't know that they'll change their policy positions, but their tone will change. The Trump admin's policies aren't that different from GOP orthodoxy except trade and the on-the-nose racism. Giveaways to the rich via tax cuts, explosive deficit spending, pumping the military with cash while openly wanting to cut medicare/SS, lack of action on climate, lack of investment in education, anti-abortion, souring relationships with allies... These were all GOP cornerstones in 2010-12 when the GOP surged in the suburbs, and going back my entire lifetime. I don't think it's crazy that the voters who Republicans designed gerrymanders around because of their support for these things would come back around. I am sure some have had or will have a change of political heart after watching Trump and the GOP's subsequent groveling at his feet, but I am also sure a big chunk will be happy to go back home. Reagan Democrats did.

What may force them to change is that what we typically think of as the GOP suburban demographic is a shrinking piece of the pie. In that sense, I concede the suburbs are likely trending blue longer term, even if what we're seeing now is maybe the crest of the first wave of change. GOP is fucked across racial, gender, etc. lines with millennial and gen Z. Millennials have only known the GOP as Bush, Tea Party, and Trump. At this point I doubt they'll ever make real inroads with the current 25-40 cohort. Not starting off well with the 18-24's. I think the current version of the GOP is in its battle of the bulge.

[WBT 20884]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

The Senate race didn't have an exceptionally strong Democratic candidate vs a Republican loathed by many within his own party? If Beto is admissible, so is Abbott. Those two races show you the range of possible outcomes. D +2 to R +11 (I said nine earlier - got the numbers backwards).

Wilco was comfortably R in most of the downballot statewide races, which are the best measures of pure partisanship. Credit where it's due for not voting for Ken Paxton. It's still a Republican leaning county though.

Trump absolutely falls within the "loathed by many" category. Biden is not an exceptional candidate. Maybe hatred for Trump will be enough, but again, 10 points in one election cycle is a lot of ground to cover.

Exactly.  Last time both candidates were loathed by many.  Trump still is.  And even in 2016, Trump wasn't popular among Texas Rs.  Texas is not Alabama.  He ran 1 to 4 points behind the R in the RR commission and all 6 statewide judicial elections.

26 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

You are assuming the republicans will whitewash trump. To my viewpoint, they have done the opposite. They have gone all in on trumplicanism. 

Will they change? Maybe. But that is not a safe assumption.

They will be forced to change when 2020 isn't even close.

[Pancho 46054]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

What always shocks me in these polls is that 10 percent or so are undecided. It blows my mind that 10 percent of America has not made up their mind on Trump, for better or worse. I think you have to assume a lot of that is silent Trumpkins. So seeing Biden approach 50 percent is good.

 

Gagree.  How in the fuck is anyone undecided?  

[Bama Chick 28596]

that is some first-rate shade by jld.

So is Joe’s response-

[gmr548 16681]

5 minutes ago, WBT said:

Exactly.  Last time both candidates were loathed by many.  Trump still is.  And even in 2016, Trump wasn't popular among Texas Rs.  Texas is not Alabama.  He ran 1 to 4 points behind the R in the RR commission and all 6 statewide judicial elections.

Trump could run 8-10 points behind the RRC and win. That's my point. I am sure he won't be +9 here again, but that margin isn't going to be completely erased.

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Gagree.  How in the fuck is anyone undecided?  

Nobody is undecided about who they support. Lots of people are undecided about whether or not they will show the fuck up and vote.

[Bama Chick 28596]

I know we say this about every new campaign video but holy shit, this one is fire.

[thepop 4418]

9 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Biden can stay out of the limelight right now. That's fine.

But in the meantime, his campaign should be staffing up and his digital operation needs to strengthen significantly. Neither is happening. And he's not raising that much money, which has been in issue for his campaign the entire primary. 

 

 

 

 

 

Didn’t he just raise a ton in March? I don’t think money will be an issue.

[DigDug 1735]

3 hours ago, Message Board User said: