2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[gmr548 16501]

Not to be too cynical, but assuming that these polls are as off as the rest of the polls... 

Then they’d roughly tie?

[Underdog 28450]

5 minutes ago, Longhornmaniac8 said:

Other than the provisionals, what's left to count in PA?

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Republican tears? 

[MoJames 8241]

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

6 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Yeah, his problem in PA was that he lost major share in all of the other counties.  While he still won them, it wasn't by nearly as much.

[Texas St. Armadillos 1381]

7 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Lol. Fauci at least will be right back Jan 20. Does he get a severance package just to be rehired?

The President can't fire Fauci.  He can remove him from the Coronavirus Task Force, but the good doctor is a member of the Senior Executive Service.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senior_Executive_Service_(United_States)

 

Edited November 6, 2020 by Texas St. Armadillos

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Fucking baby

 

Ha ha.  Fauci will get a month to do the "Dr Fauci Honesty Tour" zoom tour from his basement.  Can't fucking wait.

[TexasEd 8064]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So it begins.

 

They should all take a cue from Gritty and say FAAFO

 

[SizzleChest 8275]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

TLDR; Networks are being babies about calling it

Basically. They had to send Kornacki to forced nap time for this is my guess.  He forgot that the Provisionals would most likely align to the vote allocation proportion in each county.

I just downloaded the data from the PA elections website and did some calculations in Excel (below).  This is raw, incomplete data as each county is uploading batches as they go.  Only 8 of the 67 counties have reported provisional ballots so far, BUT the early trend is that these Provisional votes vs. ED and Mail-in votes appear to correlate pretty well.  They're actually tracking in Biden's favor by a point or two depending on the county.  And each of the 8 counties are Trumpy heavy. 

 

 

[Mdhorn 5911]

33 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Limbaugh and Hannity are going to cash in these next 4 years 

NM--it's already been posted.  

Edited November 6, 2020 by Mdhorn

[MissingInAction 24814]

I bet dotard still holds rallies charging $100 a head.

[Ghost of LL 15483]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So it begins.

 

It may be for the best for Trump to fire these people so that they are freed up to work on Biden's transition team.  You know the Trump Administration isn't going to assist in the transition.  So the sooner these experienced people can start working on the transition and preparing to take back their jobs, the better.

[gmr548 16501]

Other than the provisionals, what's left to count in PA?

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Bro they haven’t even got to the dead voters

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

Bro they haven’t even got to the dead voters

Sorry about your brain.

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[gmr548 16501]

Basically. They had to send Kornacki to forced nap time for this is my guess.  He forgot that the Provisionals would most likely align to the vote allocation proportion in each county.
I just downloaded the data from the PA elections website and did some calculations in Excel (below).  This is raw, incomplete data as each county is uploading batches as they go.  Only 8 of the 67 counties have reported provisional ballots so far, BUT the early trend is that these Provisional votes vs. ED and Mail-in votes appear to correlate pretty well.  They're actually tracking in Biden's favor by a point or two depending on the county.  And each of the 8 counties are Trumpy heavy. 
 
 

Yeah I would imagine they’re almost as democratic as mail voters, because they were mail voters that said “fuck that third world USPS nonsense”

[heso 2748]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yeah, his problem in PA was that he lost major share in all of the other counties.  While he still won them, it wasn't by nearly as much.

The tale of the tape in pa came down to Erie county and Bucks county. Opposite corners of the state and opposite ends of the economic spectrum.

Both flipped from blue to red in 2016 and back to blue this time around. 

it showed that he lost just enough of the working class and poor and just enough of the upper middle class suburbs to cost him the election. 

[gmr548 16501]

Sorry about your brain.

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[shakahorn 1625]

6 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Basically. They had to send Kornacki to forced nap time for this is my guess.  He forgot that the Provisionals would most likely align to the vote allocation proportion in each county.

I just downloaded the data from the PA elections website and did some calculations in Excel (below).  This is raw, incomplete data as each county is uploading batches as they go.  Only 8 of the 67 counties have reported provisional ballots so far, BUT the early trend is that these Provisional votes vs. ED and Mail-in votes appear to correlate pretty well.  They're actually tracking in Biden's favor by a point or two depending on the county.  And each of the 8 counties are Trumpy heavy. 

 

 

I'm a little ashamed to admit that I did not know Joe's middle name was Robinette until now.  That's almost as bad as Hussein.

[SizzleChest 8275]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah I would imagine they’re almost as democratic as mail voters, because they were mail voters that said “fuck that third world USPS nonsense”

Not sure about that.  I think some Trump voters probably also got spooked by the USPS bullshit, but more likely their requested mail-in ballot never arrived.

Edited November 6, 2020 by SizzleChest

[closetohumping 17400]

10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

Agree with both of these.  Underrated city, IMO.  CC is compact and walkable and it's surrounded by some cool neighborhoods.  Great food city and the "Skookill" is a great river and the trail is awesome.  However, Beantown is correct about some of the more "rough" areas.  The Philly attitude is a bit of a cliche' but it's true.  They have a moveable chip on their shoulders for a whole list of reasons.

https://youtu.be/v9ObdkAKtsg

[Ghost of LL 15483]

1 minute ago, shakahorn said:

I'm a little ashamed to admit that I did not know Joe's middle name was Robinette until now.  That's almost as bad as Hussein.

Yeah--that was news to me, too.

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

Carry on.

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[BradInATX 9208]

Philadelphians are the biggest group of assholes in any american city. But they are the heroes we need in this moment. God bless you Philly.

[TexasEd 8064]

2 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Not sure about that.  I think some Trump probably also got spooked by the USPS bullshit, but more likely their requested mail-in ballot never arrived.

My bet is that any trumpy bear voters sent in their mail in ballot and then showed up to vote in person just like trumpy bear told them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/trump-people-vote-twice.html

[Anastasis 23394]

Lulz.

America's new power couple: Mitch and Joe

How a Biden presidency and McConnell-led Senate might actually get along.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/05/biden-mcconnell-relationship-434524

 

[Aqua Buddha 14504]

1 hour ago, Tuco said:

I've never been to Philadelphia. I think my general impression of Philadelphia has been somewhat negative.  I'm starting to love Philadelphia. 

Yo!  Yous don't like Philly?  Fuck you, man.  Philly don't no like yous, needer.  

[lemonlime 5503]

2 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

My bet is that any trumpy bear voters sent in their mail in ballot and then showed up to vote in person just like trumpy bear told them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/us/politics/trump-people-vote-twice.html

Are the 100k provisionals to count the ones that were deemed valid? 

[Bama Chick 28596]

Talk to the state's republican legislature who made sure they had to wait to election day to start counting mail in ballots.

And this is the first time they’ve ever done mail in ballots.

They’ve done pretty well all considered.

[aggie08 21430]

I've never watched this much daytime television before. They just giving errybody talk shows now? Drew Barrymore and Kelly Clarkson both have one, and who is what is a Tamron Hall?

[heso 2748]

5 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Not sure about that.  I think some Trump voters probably also got spooked by the USPS bullshit, but more likely their requested mail-in ballot never arrived.

The unreturned MIBs were 300k dem to 200k rep. I’d expect the provisionals to track pretty close to that ratio statewide. 

[TeeDubya 3358]

54 minutes ago, heso said:

Look, we’re all having fun with philly saving the day, but come next hockey season philly will go back to being the dumbest, most violent, and overly drunk sports city in the country. 

they can enjoy their respect through Inauguration Day. After that they’ll go back to being fat drunk and stupid and they‘ll remind everyone for the next 50 years, as they vomit into a urinal, about that time they saved America.  

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

47 minutes ago, Kel Varnsen said:

8-9K military ballots were sent out. Thats' not how many were returned, right?

That is my understanding as well.

[heso 2748]

2 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Are the 100k provisionals to count the ones that were deemed valid? 

I’d expect at this point that is total since they are just finishing counting mail in ballots. They’ll now need to check all of the provisionals against the record to see which ones are valid before counting 

[aggie08 21430]

56 minutes ago, heso said:

Look, we’re all having fun with philly saving the day, but come next hockey season philly will go back to being the dumbest, most violent, and overly drunk sports city in the country. 

they can enjoy their respect through Inauguration Day. After that they’ll go back to being fat drunk and stupid and they‘ll remind everyone for the next 50 years, as they vomit into a urinal, about that time they saved America.  

And I'll gladly be the guy who's barely able to stand up, peeing on the wall next to him, asking him to tell it again.

[TwiceHorn 31268]

19 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So it begins.

 

The additional post says she was canned because the acting administrator's ability to "act" is expiring.  So he can be appointed to her number 2 spot while the administrator position remains open.

Trump as usual.  Nothing to see here.

[TexasEd 8064]

4 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Are the 100k provisionals to count the ones that were deemed valid? 

Provisionals will be disallowed if the voter cast a mail in ballot that was received and counted.  This is why there is a specific order to count in person, mail-in, and then provisional.  If a provisional voter mailed in a ballot the provisional is discarded as a duplicate from the same voter.

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

That NY Times needle was on the fucking money with GA. That was the first indication from any of the major outlets/analysts that Biden was favored in GA. 

[aggie08 21430]

7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The additional post says she was canned because the acting administrator's ability to "act" is expiring.  So he can be appointed to her number 2 spot while the administrator position remains open.

Trump as usual.  Nothing to see here.

Kinky.

Edited November 6, 2020 by aggie08

[lemonlime 5503]

1 minute ago, TexasEd said:

Provisionals will be disallowed if the voter cast a mail in ballot that was received and counted.  This is why there is a specific order to count in person, mail-in, and then provisional.  If a provisional voter mailed in a ballot the provisional is discarded as a duplicate from the same voter.

Right.  I'm asking if they're saying there's 100k provisional ballots to count, is that 100k what's left after they discarded the ones which were duplicates of mail in ballots, such as trump voters trying to vote twice.  Or is that 100k going to be greatly whittled down once they compare those provisional ballots to the mail ballots.

[atomheartbevo 89414]

What's staggering is how many Republicans somehow thought Pennsylvania (Trump won in 2016 by 44,000), Wisconsin (Trump won in 2016 by 23,000), and Michigan (Trump won by 10,000 or so), were Republican strongholds.

It's like "really, states that, outside of 2016, you basically have to go back to the 1980s to find Republicans consistently doing well in, you thought those were Republican strongholds?" 

[TexasEd 8064]

3 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Right.  I'm asking if they're saying there's 100k provisional ballots to count, is that 100k what's left after they discarded the ones which were duplicates of mail in ballots, such as trump voters trying to vote twice.  Or is that 100k going to be greatly whittled down once they compare those provisional ballots to the mail ballots.

I assume...

That since they just finished the mail in ballots they have to screen (whatever the right term is) to make sure the provisionals are valid.  

Other reasons they could be discarded - person thought they were registered to vote but they were not

Other reason they could be accepted - They are registered but showed up in wrong precinct so they get a statewide/national ballot only.

Edited November 6, 2020 by TexasEd

[TeeDubya 3358]

25 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Limbaugh won't last 4 years

24 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

California argument is so goddamn stupid. If a democrat said “Well, if we throw out Wyoming, Alaska, North and South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, West Virginia, Nebraska, Kansas, Mississippi, Arkansas, Iowa, Utah, Oklahoma, Kentucky, and Louisiana,” that democrat would still be throwing out over 1,500,000 fewer people despite throwing out 81 EV (I think, just did that in my head off the screen real quick so maybe give or take a couple) to California’s 55.

If you ever hear anyone try the “Well, excluding California” thing, dismiss them as a moron and ridicule them immediately. If you do not, you are a moron and should be ridiculed.

"Maybe you need to find a country to live in which is not a democratic republic...."  That's my answer.  It is usually met with stupid faced silence.

22 minutes ago, Texas St. Armadillos said:

The President can't fire Fauci.  He can remove him from the Coronavirus Task Force, but the good doctor is a member of the Senior Executive Service.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senior_Executive_Service_(United_States)

 

This.  Fauci's safe from a Trump vengeance firing.

[heso 2748]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

What's staggering is how many Republicans somehow thought Pennsylvania (Trump won in 2016 by 44,000), Wisconsin (Trump won in 2016 by 23,000), and Michigan (Trump won by 10,000 or so), were Republican strongholds.

It's like "really, states that, outside of 2016, you basically have to go back to the 1980s to find Republicans consistently doing well in, you thought those were Republican strongholds?" 

Because they thought the former Dems that were upset about the economy and jobs outlook in rural areas could be fed lies as long as they were allowed to be racist again. 

They were largely correct.

If the exit polls are accurate they lost white college educated people who were aghast at how terrible this administration was 

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

7 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

That NY Times needle was on the fucking money with GA. That was the first indication from any of the major outlets/analysts that Biden was favored in GA. 

NYT needle caught a lot of heat but did they call any states that wrong?

[Bookman 4610]

4 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

I will never not rep gritty for gritty memes when I have gritty to rep.

I'm out of gritty rep.

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

1 minute ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

NYT needle caught a lot of heat but did they call any states that wrong?

No, they only did the needle for FL, GA, and NC this time. 

[totallynotabuttpirate 5342]

Just now, Bookman said:

I'm out of gritty rep.

Tree fiddy that shit meng for unlimited rep! 

[TexasEd 8064]

2 minutes ago, heso said:

Because they thought the former Dems that were upset about the economy and jobs outlook in rural areas could be fed lies as long as they were allowed to be racist again. 

They were largely correct.

If the exit polls are accurate they lost white college educated people who were aghast at how terrible this administration was 

Yeah, the educated people (not just white) who know how to run a business or do things efficiently were like:

[Welch 635]

Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins).

If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k?  Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly?

What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?

[TexasEd 8064]

MSNBC getting ready to describe Trump's mood after the break.   

Schadenfreude for this survivor of a narcissistic father.

[Dark Horse 2263]

22 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Yo!  Yous don't like Philly?  Fuck you, man.  Philly don't no like yous, needer.