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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
Bama Chick

I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
HenryJames
Thatguy
Thatguy

This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8064

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Welch said:

Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins).

If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k?  Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly?

What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?

Some of the Provisionals will be disallowed if the mail in ballot was received and counted or for other reasons.  Not all of them will be counted.

Likely the #1 reason for provisional is the voter did not receive absentee ballot in time or did not mail it in time.  Again the mail in ballots went to Biden by a higher margin everywhere.

 

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Dark Horse

Dark Horse 2263

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Posted
Just now, Patricio Swayze said:

I absolutely LOVE how fucking nuts conservatives are acting now. It’s as if Biden is Karl Marx. Just amazing.

Also, been blocking people on LinkedIn. That place should not have any political posts, but is full of them.

LinkedIn is basically Facebook Jr. 

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heso

heso 2748

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Welch said:

Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins).

If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k?  Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly?

What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?

There are still 35k mail in ballots in Allegheny county that are going to break 75-80% for Biden. 

The provisionals are going to break between the counties split and the MIB split. Probably close to 60-65% for biden.

There are some unknown amount of mail in ballots that were received after Election Day that may or may not count. Will probably end up in the Supreme Court. 

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washparkhorn

washparkhorn 9935

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Welch said:

Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins).

If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k?  Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly?

What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?

Election theory now is get the count in. These counts are extremely accurate. Hundreds of votes is hard to prove. Thousands unheard of these days. The controls are too tight. 

In the end after the count - the question becomes whether they were harmless (within the spread - cumulative.)

But we get the count finished: Rule No. 1.

For those wanting official calls, gotta wait. AP and Fox have their calls up for scrutiny. They need a fair count to prove.

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Welch

Welch 635

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TexasEd said:

Some of the Provisionals will be disallowed if the mail in ballot was received and counted or for other reasons.  Not all of them will be counted.

Likely the #1 reason for provisional is the voter did not receive absentee ballot in time or did not mail it in time.  Again the mail in ballots went to Biden by a higher margin everywhere.

 

Fair enough.  Just seems like a heavy lift.  If there are, say, 60k allowable provisionals, Biden would need to win those 65%-35% to pick up a net gain of 18k and increase his total lead to ~33k.

Any fewer allowable would mean he’d need to win an even larger percentage.

I did hear that 40% of them are from Philly, so that’ll help.  I’m just skeptical.

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Gourmand

Gourmand 7774

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7 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I absolutely LOVE how fucking nuts conservatives are acting now. It’s as if Biden is Karl Marx. Just amazing.

Also, been blocking people on LinkedIn. That place should not have any political posts, but is full of them.

Man I can't wait to get me a big plate of that Biden socialism!

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89414

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Torbush. 

 

I'm going to take a really mild guess and say that he's never been around large computer systems used by governments.

Or that he understands how mail-in ballots work, since, you know, they would have to be sent out, used for voting, and then sent back.

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heso

heso 2748

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Welch said:

Fair enough.  Just seems like a heavy lift.  If there are, say, 60k allowable provisionals, Biden would need to win those 65%-35% to pick up a net gain of 18k and increase his total lead to ~33k.

Any fewer allowable would mean he’d need to win an even larger percentage.

I did hear that 40% of them are from Philly, so that’ll help.  I’m just skeptical.

Part of the overestimate seems to stem from the remaining ballot counts yesterday included a lot of ballots that would be discarded. Ballots that didn’t have the security envelope. There were 2000 of those in bucks county alone. That would equate to 40,000 naked ballots state wide. You’d assume an affluent suburb could follow instructions, so it could be higher than that. 

that alone accounts for at least a 20,000 vote spread that won’t get counted. 

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Zepol87

Zepol87 9171

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

I absolutely LOVE how fucking nuts conservatives are acting now. It’s as if Biden is Karl Marx. Just amazing.

Also, been blocking people on LinkedIn. That place should not have any political posts, but is full of them.

I am rarely on linkedin unless it is some linkedin learning type of stuff but holy shit I scrolled through it the other day and it was as bad as FB with politics

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heso

heso 2748

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:


I thought I heard they couldn’t touch the segregated ballots until 5pm. Maybe I heard wrong.

That was just 29,000 ballots in Allegheny county that were sent with wrong information and had to be reissued. The GOP fought to have all of them discarded but settled the lawsuit. 

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TexEx15

TexEx15 17462

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Would love to hear any rational argument from media why Nevada isn’t called. The math isn’t there 

Fox can’t call it because they called AZ and it puts Biden over 270.  Though I would love to see them do it.

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heso

heso 2748

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, immamac said:

Oh those are the segregated ballots? Nice. Then this thing is over. I thought the segregated ballots weren't left outstanding in the count. Makes sense. So PA called tomorrow AM at the latest. 

No. They haven’t touched the segregated late arriving mail in ballots. If those get counted it will only stretch Biden’s lead. I think they are hoping they can call the state without a fight to count those ballots. 

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