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2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

Patrick Bateman

By Patrick Bateman
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Bama Chick
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I am so thrilled tonight! I spoke with my mom and asked her how my dad was taking the election. She said after every network declared Biden the winner, he turned off Fox News and said “Well, glad t

HenryJames
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Thatguy
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This was my experience in Galveston County, except for one thing. I came in and presented my ID to the geriatric at the front who printed out my pin number. I took my pin number to a table where two B

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26452

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3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:
9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:
Read the demos. I love the result but I'm dubious about the weighting.  

 

It's probably a little Democratic, true, but the partisan ID gap in Texas has always been much closer than the election results show.

I don't think it's too Democratic, I think it's too white, which would mean that very liberal whites are over represented in the actual sample relative to Republican hispanics. Depending on how they normalize for race, they could wind up skewing towards Democrats by making an assumption for the white sample that is too Republican. 

Texas is obviously close, but this feels 2-3pts wide to me.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20929

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Obviously not surprising, but looks like the official Trump strategy is to put 100% of the responsibility on schools and teachers to handle re-opening. Fucking traitors. 

 

Schools will open, then they will close, putting incredible strain on families and the economy. Trump will lose by 10+ points in November, and then we'll have to sort out this mess afterwards. Infuriating. 

 

 

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gmr548

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I don't think it's too Democratic, I think it's too white, which would mean that very liberal whites are over represented in the actual sample relative to Republican hispanics. Depending on how they normalize for race, they could wind up skewing towards Democrats by making an assumption for the white sample that is too Republican. 

Texas is obviously close, but this feels 2-3pts wide to me.


I don't think it's too Democratic, I think it's too white, which would mean that very liberal whites are over represented in the actual sample relative to Republican hispanics. Depending on how they normalize for race, they could wind up skewing towards Democrats by making an assumption for the white sample that is too Republican. 

Texas is obviously close, but this feels 2-3pts wide to me.


I didn't catch the racial breakdown way down there. Hispanics are underrepresented but 61 percent white isn't crazy for a likely voters poll compared to who actually votes in Texas. Only 31 percent of the poll identified as even slightly liberal or more so. Eight percent as extremely liberal. I'm not sure there was a huge sampling of liberal whites (a pretty rare thing in Texas outside of the youngest age cohorts, which don't appear oversampled either) in there.

To me the biggest indicator that there aren't a bunch of white liberals fucking up this poll is the gap between Trump and Abbott. Trump is running way behind Abbott, which I'd think, based on the fact that 69 percent of the poll is moderate or conservative, points to Trump continuing to struggle with suburban moderates and conservative latinos, both of which like Abbott. There aren't enough liberals to totally sink Trump's numbers like that, and if there were, Abbott would be down there with him because, let me tell you as a libtard, we hate that fuck too.

Of course I can't say that definitively and 20 percent Hispanic is definitely a little low relative to the share of the electorate. So a grain of salt is fair. It'd be nice to see answers by race.

And I don't actually think Biden's +5. This is a very favorable poll for him relative to other recents. But the state's pretty clearly a tossup if the election were today. Close enough that it's a turnout game.
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Guest Lobo

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9 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 

That's not as awesome as it appears.  Biden was doing much better in Arizona than a tie, last I checked.  Da fuH?  

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5294

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Yeah, that's Trump's best showing in AZ in a while. NYT/Siena had it Biden +7 not long ago.

Polling average in AZ is just Biden +2.5 right now, down from +4.5 just 2 weeks ago. And I've noticed McSally is "only" down 8 or 9 in the last few AZ polls, as opposed to double digits. Kelly should still win that seat comfortably, but the Prez race might be a bit of a slog. I think it's still Lean D and doubtful Trump gonna see a big uptick beyond where he is now. 

On the other hand, FL is looking more and more solid. Biden +6.8 in the averages. Almost every recent FL poll has been at least Biden +5.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Saw several concerning articles lately. 
 

#1 was a NYT article where Democrat operatives from Georgia, Texas, and Ohio were practically begging the Biden campaign to invest and compete in their states because the political environment definitely favors Democrats right now. The Biden campaign gave this lame answer like blah blah path to 270 is our biggest priority blah blah. They said a Florida was an iffy investment before the numbers looked so good for Biden there.

meanwhile........Trumps team is all over the grounds in battleground states. They already have local campaign teams assembled while Bidej has just been announcing whose in charge of the different swing states this week or so. 
 

#2 is that the republicans are actually outpacing Democrats in voter registration. I selfishly want the colleges to meet in person for fall classes because it might help with our registration numbers in swing states, but the GOP supposedly is outpacing us in new registrations this year in many key states. I think the corona virus has a lot to do with this, but excuses don’t win anything. Gotta go out there and compete to win.

 

these concerns could be offset most likely by the positive political environment for Democrats and Biden is expected to do much better with blacks and especially independents/ older people than Clinton tho.

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SydneyCarton

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3 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Saw several concerning articles lately. 
 

#1 was a NYT article where Democrat operatives from Georgia, Texas, and Ohio were practically begging the Biden campaign to invest and compete in their states because the political environment definitely favors Democrats right now. The Biden campaign gave this lame answer like blah blah path to 270 is our biggest priority blah blah. They said a Florida was an iffy investment before the numbers looked so good for Biden there.

meanwhile........Trumps team is all over the grounds in battleground states. They already have local campaign teams assembled while Bidej has just been announcing whose in charge of the different swing states this week or so. 
 

#2 is that the republicans are actually outpacing Democrats in voter registration. I selfishly want the colleges to meet in person for fall classes because it might help with our registration numbers in swing states, but the GOP supposedly is outpacing us in new registrations this year in many key states. I think the corona virus has a lot to do with this, but excuses don’t win anything. Gotta go out there and compete to win.

 

these concerns could be offset most likely by the positive political environment for Democrats and Biden is expected to do much better with blacks and especially independents/ older people than Clinton tho.

This is an extension of and goes lockstep with some articles last month talking about Biden’s failures to get staff and folks in place to run state campaigns were about a hair away from being catastrophic. 

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Patrick Bateman

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8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Saw several concerning articles lately. 
 

#1 was a NYT article where Democrat operatives from Georgia, Texas, and Ohio were practically begging the Biden campaign to invest and compete in their states because the political environment definitely favors Democrats right now. The Biden campaign gave this lame answer like blah blah path to 270 is our biggest priority blah blah. They said a Florida was an iffy investment before the numbers looked so good for Biden there.

meanwhile........Trumps team is all over the grounds in battleground states. They already have local campaign teams assembled while Bidej has just been announcing whose in charge of the different swing states this week or so. 
 

#2 is that the republicans are actually outpacing Democrats in voter registration. I selfishly want the colleges to meet in person for fall classes because it might help with our registration numbers in swing states, but the GOP supposedly is outpacing us in new registrations this year in many key states. I think the corona virus has a lot to do with this, but excuses don’t win anything. Gotta go out there and compete to win.

 

these concerns could be offset most likely by the positive political environment for Democrats and Biden is expected to do much better with blacks and especially independents/ older people than Clinton tho.

I assume this is the article you're referencing for voter registration.  It needs to be tracked but it isn't as ugly as it sounds.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152

Quote

The study from TargetSmart was especially alarming for Democrats because it spotlighted not only falling registrations, but which party was damaged most in battleground states. In a majority of 10 states TargetSmart studied, registrations skewed older and whiter than before the pandemic. And in the states included in the study that register by party — Florida, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — Democrats made up a smaller share of new registrants than before....

Because overall registration numbers have been so low across the board during the pandemic, Republican gains during that period have been too small in most cases to make up for months of pre-pandemic Democratic advances. Tom Bonier, TargetSmart's CEO, compared the registration shift to a footrace that was suddenly forced into slow motion. During that time, Republicans, though still behind, “got a couple of extra steps” closer to Democrats.

“It’s not like they’ve built the lead,” Bonier said. “It’s really something where neither side should be celebrating or panicking about.”

Looking at newer data this week, Bonier found Democrats increased their share of registrations in June over the previous month in several states that have reported registrations for that month.

 

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Voldemort86

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2 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I assume this is the article you're referencing for voter registration.  It needs to be tracked but it isn't as ugly as it sounds.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152

 

Yeah..... you found that one.

Biden can get away with playing it safe for a few more weeks, but come early August he needs to be much more aggressive I think.

Edited by Voldemort86
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BradInATX

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29 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Yeah..... you found that one.

Biden can get away with playing it safe for a few more weeks, but come early August he needs to be much more aggressive I think.

August is when we bring out the secret weapon to seal the deal

 

teresa_2.jpg?w=786

 

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Voldemort86

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8 minutes ago, immamac said:

It's almost as if the democratic party should have chosen a better candidate. 

The country isn’t ready for a Bernie type progressive. They proved it when Biden and his skeleton crew campaign rolled sanders on Super Tuesday.

I don’t get the Bernie or bust folks tho. If you help Biden win, at least the country as a whole moves farther to the left then it would be under trump. Very simple logic.

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Hank Kingsley

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

It's almost as if the democratic party should have chosen a better candidate. 

You can't say they didn't try. 20+ candidates in the race. And the handful of contenders bloodied each other up which left Joe as the only option that was palatable to the majority. 

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The Dog

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So let's discuss the polls for a minute - I'm seeing more and more articles coming out wondering if pollsters "learned their lessons" from 2016. The thing is, the pollsters pretty much got it right with respect to Hillary's share of the vote. For example:

Wisconsin:

RCP Average for Clinton: 46.8

Actual vote for Clinton: 46.5

Michigan:

RCP Average for Clinton: 45.4 (most polls were 46-47 in November - one outlier pulled this down)

Actual vote for Clinton: 47

Pennsylvania: 

RCP Average for Clinton: 46.2

Actual vote for Clinton: 47.5

So the RCP averages were off of the actual vote for Hillary on these three states (that Trump won by 0.7, 0.3, and 0.7 respectively) by about one percent each on average. That's pretty dang accurate IMHO.

Where did they screw up? In measuring support for Trump. Several reasons for this - including undercounting whites without college degrees, the "shy Trump voter" effect (likely undecideds who were going to vote Trump but wouldn't admit it), and late deciders who overwhelmingly broke for Trump. That's a bit reason that Trafalgar's polls were so accurate - they polled literally the day before when people were making up their minds. 

So what to take from this? IMHO we can believe that support for Biden in these polls is pretty accurate and will continue to be so. What we need to understand is what is different in 2020 that would result in bogus numbers for Trump? We already know that pollsters are increasing the percentage of non-college educated whites in their samples. 

Anyway something to consider whenever someone suggests the polls are "bogus" or that they got something wrong 4 years ago.

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Wulaw Horn

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8 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

What makes you say that? Hasn’t the consensus thus far been “don’t spend resources chasing Texas?”

They’d be stupid not to chase texas. Even if Texas runs way to the right of the country as a whole, and Trump loses the National by 10% and loses Texas by 1 vote that’s a bigger story than anything else possible going forward. 
You’d have think the GOP won’t run as shitty a candidate as Trump ever going forward, but losing Texas, even if just once in the middle of a tsunami Dem wave, shows it’s possible and will have the GOP playing defense here forever and presumably motivate Dems to come out and vote. 
Big picture they should absolutely inset a ton of money in Texas (and GA and FL). It’s not like you can spend a billion dollars in PA, MI, WI, IA, NC and AZ. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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GA, TX, and OH are in the "nice to have" category. The fact that they're even competitive tells you the election, as it stands today, is a laugher.

If I'm running the Biden campaign, I invest in those states but I'm not pulling a dime out of PA, MI, WI, AZ, NC, or FL to do it. If polls tighten you focus on that first tier. That said, you can't just ignore it when a state like Texas is telling you it's a tossup. Imagine the symbolism of taking Texas from an incumbent Republican President. Imagine the political capital that brings.

And of course, imagine Trump, vain and concerned with optics as he is, having "the Republican who lost Texas" attached to his name like Ricky Williams has "Heisman Trophy winner." If we're in position to do it, we need to press way beyond 270. Fucking obliterate the Trump cult. That'd be a hell of a prize.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Most of the Hispanics in that Florida 30% are gone forever. The Democrats never had a chance with them. It’s mainly Cubans and Venezuelans who are from “ oppressive” countries and they get tricked by the GOP’s anti communism rhetoric every election.

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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There wasn't one.
With the benefit of hindsight, Bernie Sanders would probably be President right now if he'd won.

And of course, Joe Biden chose not to run. He'd have won if he was the nominee (no idea how that three way primary shakes out).

Both would probably be getting ready to run against Ted Cruz with a heavily GOP Congress right now.
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JimmyJames

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10 hours ago, Patrick Bateman said:

I assume this is the article you're referencing for voter registration.  It needs to be tracked but it isn't as ugly as it sounds.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/11/trump-voter-registration-355152

 

Politico needs the click bait. They are pretty bad when it comes to that. A pretty worthless site.

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honolulu horn

honolulu horn 6158

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4 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Baffling, even with the Cuban / Venezuelan angle posted above. His policy is to call brown people, rapists / murderers / drug lords, build a wall to keep them out, and separate parents from kids at the border while keeping them in cages -- while some die. Should be pretty low hanging fruit for an ad spot or two, aimed directly at Latinx populations. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45682

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2 hours ago, staboner said:

oh this the page where we get to learn which obscure counties in buttfuck ohio will decide the fate of the entire world. 

Sigh. Our system is so dumb. 

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

You put those two people in the same sentence again I swear to Christ. 

And yeah, this was weird. 

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