2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Hiphopopotamos 21158]

 

 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

9 hours ago, thepop said:

Didn’t he just raise a ton in March? I don’t think money will be an issue.

He raised a good amount in the first two weeks of March when Dems consolidated and he surged on Super Tuesday. 

Money will become an issue if his campaign sticks with how they’ve fundraised so far. 

[Ghost of LL 15664]

14 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Against or for?

Against.  Biden might take WilCo.  But it won't be with 55% of the vote.  

[Ghost of LL 15664]

12 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Because that's what's demanded of them by the man that executed a somewhat hostile takeover of their party and won them total control of the presidency.

If they get wiped out in the suburbs nationally, costing them the WH, possibly the Senate, and who knows what in various states, they'll change their tone. Being the overt white christian nationalist party is not a good long term play in a country where that's a minority coaliation, and a shrinking one at that. Hell it's not even been a good short term play after people saw it with full control.

I don't know that they'll change their policy positions, but their tone will change. The Trump admin's policies aren't that different from GOP orthodoxy except trade and the on-the-nose racism. Giveaways to the rich via tax cuts, explosive deficit spending, pumping the military with cash while openly wanting to cut medicare/SS, lack of action on climate, lack of investment in education, anti-abortion, souring relationships with allies... These were all GOP cornerstones in 2010-12 when the GOP surged in the suburbs, and going back my entire lifetime. I don't think it's crazy that the voters who Republicans designed gerrymanders around because of their support for these things would come back around. I am sure some have had or will have a change of political heart after watching Trump and the GOP's subsequent groveling at his feet, but I am also sure a big chunk will be happy to go back home. Reagan Democrats did.

What may force them to change is that what we typically think of as the GOP suburban demographic is a shrinking piece of the pie. In that sense, I concede the suburbs are likely trending blue longer term, even if what we're seeing now is maybe the crest of the first wave of change. GOP is fucked across racial, gender, etc. lines with millennial and gen Z. Millennials have only known the GOP as Bush, Tea Party, and Trump. At this point I doubt they'll ever make real inroads with the current 25-40 cohort. Not starting off well with the 18-24's. I think the current version of the GOP is in its battle of the bulge.

I think this gives the voters too little credit and the Trumpublican Party too much.

In 1994, Pete Wilson went full anti-immigrant in California.  He won the next election.  But it has stained the California GOP for a generation.  Californians didn't just forget that the GOP was a racist party.  Even though Schwarzenegger was able to gain the governorship in highly unusual circumstances, he couldn't reframe the party in the minds of voters.  And if Arnold couldn't do it, do you think Nikki Haley will?

This stain isn't going to wash off.

And this stain isn't going to want to be washed off.  It'll fight the soap.  

I don't care if Trump loses Texas, Florida, and Georgia--you don't think he's just going to go away, do you?  He'll still be up on Twitter.  He'll still get on Fox News any time he wants.  He is going to be the face of the Trumpublican Party, because there is absolutely no way he's going to adhere to the custom that former presidents step back out of the spotlight.  Even as the former president, he'll probably be more visible than Joe Biden.

And when 2024 arrives, who do you think the Trumpublican Party's nominee is going to be?  

Yeah--you know who it is.

The Trumpublican Party wouldn't be able to distance from Trump if they wanted to.  And here's the dirty secret--they won't want to.

[TxEx84 439]

If Trump loses in November, the Republican Party will blame him and separate.  Especially if they take a beating in the House and Senate races.  The establishment never wanted him in 2016.  

I think there are a lot of people like me.  I was a life-long Republican but have left the party -- or really, the party left me.  

[Biff Tannen 46061]

39 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think this gives the voters too little credit and the Trumpublican Party too much.

In 1994, Pete Wilson went full anti-immigrant in California.  He won the next election.  But it has stained the California GOP for a generation.  Californians didn't just forget that the GOP was a racist party.  Even though Schwarzenegger was able to gain the governorship in highly unusual circumstances, he couldn't reframe the party in the minds of voters.  And if Arnold couldn't do it, do you think Nikki Haley will?

This stain isn't going to wash off.

And this stain isn't going to want to be washed off.  It'll fight the soap.  

I don't care if Trump loses Texas, Florida, and Georgia--you don't think he's just going to go away, do you?  He'll still be up on Twitter.  He'll still get on Fox News any time he wants.  He is going to be the face of the Trumpublican Party, because there is absolutely no way he's going to adhere to the custom that former presidents step back out of the spotlight.  Even as the former president, he'll probably be more visible than Joe Biden.

And when 2024 arrives, who do you think the Trumpublican Party's nominee is going to be?  

Yeah--you know who it is.

The Trumpublican Party wouldn't be able to distance from Trump if they wanted to.  And here's the dirty secret--they won't want to.

I really think there is a more than 50% chance he is indicted almost immediately upon leaving office by the State of NY, at the very least.

[gmr548 16681]

I think this gives the voters too little credit and the Trumpublican Party too much.
In 1994, Pete Wilson went full anti-immigrant in California.  He won the next election.  But it has stained the California GOP for a generation.  Californians didn't just forget that the GOP was a racist party.  Even though Schwarzenegger was able to gain the governorship in highly unusual circumstances, he couldn't reframe the party in the minds of voters.  And if Arnold couldn't do it, do you think Nikki Haley will?
This stain isn't going to wash off.
And this stain isn't going to want to be washed off.  It'll fight the soap.  
I don't care if Trump loses Texas, Florida, and Georgia--you don't think he's just going to go away, do you?  He'll still be up on Twitter.  He'll still get on Fox News any time he wants.  He is going to be the face of the Trumpublican Party, because there is absolutely no way he's going to adhere to the custom that former presidents step back out of the spotlight.  Even as the former president, he'll probably be more visible than Joe Biden.
And when 2024 arrives, who do you think the Trumpublican Party's nominee is going to be?  
Yeah--you know who it is.
The Trumpublican Party wouldn't be able to distance from Trump if they wanted to.  And here's the dirty secret--they won't want to.

If Trump loses in 2020, I honestly expect him dead by 2024 (hello NSA). He'll spend his days fuming on Twitter and Fox News and eventually stroke out.

If he's alive I could see you scenario. He has a cult base that could carry him through the primary. But that's not necessarialy in opposition to what I said. If the GOP gets crushed over the next couple election cycles, they'll eventually try to scrub the party of Trump. Maybe that's 2021, maybe it's 2025. And when they do, a substantial amount of their former constituency will return.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

12 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If the GOP gets crushed over the next couple election cycles, they'll eventually try to scrub the party of Trump. Maybe that's 2021, maybe it's 2025. And when they do, a substantial amount of their former constituency will return.

What becomes of the cult?  Literally millions of people.  Our only hope is without their goblin king at the helm, they'll lose interest and go back under their rocks.  But if they don't, we will have a decades long problem.

[Zonahorn 8079]

By the same token, they'll lose all the MAGAts

[gmr548 16681]

If Trump loses in November, the Republican Party will blame him and separate.  Especially if they take a beating in the House and Senate races.  The establishment never wanted him in 2016.  

I think there are a lot of people like me.  I was a life-long Republican but have left the party -- or really, the party left me.  

So this isn't a judgment of you, but "really, the party left me" is exactly what I'm talking about. The implication being that GOP was kosher pre-Trump, you still feel that way, and would probably go back of it reverted to that. Yes?

 

Useless but interesting experiment, sample of one: Romney or someone similar in ideology (I have no idea how old he is tbh, maybe that ship has sailed) and wholesomeness vs some Democrat younger and more liberal than 107 year old Biden in 2024.

 

Democrats have held the House for six years, the Senate for two to four. They're getting their judges, they've raised top tax rates, Amazon at least pays more taxes than an American making $40k. Federal agencies/regulatory policy are run like they were under Obama. Economy's okay but definitely still a COVID hangover - not dissimilar to the environment in 2012.

 

Neither single payer healthcare or green new deal have happened but this new Democrat is open about supporting these policies and they're probably going through if Democrats keep control of the federal government.

 

The House is still probably not in play but the Senate is, and Ted Cruz is up again in Texas. He's back to trying the whole principled conservative intellectual shtick and pretending he didn't spend four years gargling Trump's balls. Easier out on this one - a more moderate suburban wave Democrat like Collin Allred (sp?) or Lizzie Fletcher is running.

 

Who are you voting for in both the POTUS and Senate elections?

 

No judgment, just curious.

 

[softlynow 1893]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

What becomes of the cult?  Literally millions of people.  Our only hope is without their goblin king at the helm, they'll lose interest and go back under their rocks.  But if they don't, we will have a decades long problem.

Nuts do their thing. Always. Those millions are always into some kooky shit. Most of the time, though, they're at least a bit more marginalized than the last few years. Without a standard-bearer with Dotard's reach and resources (including his foreign support) they'll go back to being a mostly benign curiosity. The key is getting to that point before immense irreversible structural changes occur.

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

I think this gives the voters too little credit and the Trumpublican Party too much.

In 1994, Pete Wilson went full anti-immigrant in California.  He won the next election.  But it has stained the California GOP for a generation.  Californians didn't just forget that the GOP was a racist party.  Even though Schwarzenegger was able to gain the governorship in highly unusual circumstances, he couldn't reframe the party in the minds of voters.  And if Arnold couldn't do it, do you think Nikki Haley will?

This stain isn't going to wash off.

And this stain isn't going to want to be washed off.  It'll fight the soap.  

I don't care if Trump loses Texas, Florida, and Georgia--you don't think he's just going to go away, do you?  He'll still be up on Twitter.  He'll still get on Fox News any time he wants.  He is going to be the face of the Trumpublican Party, because there is absolutely no way he's going to adhere to the custom that former presidents step back out of the spotlight.  Even as the former president, he'll probably be more visible than Joe Biden.

And when 2024 arrives, who do you think the Trumpublican Party's nominee is going to be?  

Yeah--you know who it is.

The Trumpublican Party wouldn't be able to distance from Trump if they wanted to.  And here's the dirty secret--they won't want to.

Thanks for pointing that out.  I've used the Pete Wilson analogy for awhile.  He took a fairly dormant voting block in Hispanics and energized them and got them voting.  He also offended a fair number of upscale suburban whites.  (Sound familiar?)  They haven't been competitive since.

[gmr548 16681]

Thanks for pointing that out.  I've used the Pete Wilson analogy for awhile.  He took a fairly dormant voting block in Hispanics and energized them and got them voting.  He also offended a fair number of upscale suburban whites.  (Sound familiar?)  They haven't been competitive since.

Maybe. The Democratic and Republican platforms weren't that different in the 90s. The question was which conservative party you prefer.

Three gap between the current Democratic party and the 2000-2012 GOP is cavernous. Major Democratic policy goals (and simple math given our current situation, but that's beside the point) inherently require tax increases on high earners, many of which are moderate suburban whites. Sticking with Democrats beyond this cycle would be the proverbial vote against one's own pocketbook. Thay demographic hasn't been willing to do that until, maybe, now. And even now the stakes aren't real because Democrats only control 1/3 of the government.

To clarify, I'd love to be wrong. There are just a lot of red flags here.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

30 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

What becomes of the cult?  Literally millions of people.  Our only hope is without their goblin king at the helm, they'll lose interest and go back under their rocks.  But if they don't, we will have a decades long problem.

This is why Democrats can't look at Biden vs. Trump, and think "just win, baby".  Biden winning popular vote by 4-5% and and eking out an electoral college victory is not good enough. 

The goal needs to be total destruction of Trump and down ballot victories. The Democratic strategy should involve winning the popular vote by 10+ million and netting 325+ EC votes.  Take back the fucking Senate. Yeah, it will be difficult, but with the pandemic and economy crumbling there is a chance.

Can't just win. Have to make a fucking statement to force Trumpkins down into their holes. 

 

[henrygandorf 29221]

16 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

The goal needs to be total destruction of Trump and down ballot victories. The Democratic strategy should involve winning the popular vote by 10+ million and netting 325+ EC votes.  Take back the fucking Senate. Yeah, it will be difficult, but with the pandemic and economy crumbling there is a chance.

being a census year makes it even more important that it's all blue everywhere.

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I really think there is a more than 50% chance he is indicted almost immediately upon leaving office by the State of NY, at the very least.

Depending on certain Supreme Court arguments, it could be sooner

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

 

[henrygandorf 29221]

well trump did say it would be a landslide.

[gmr548 16681]

Do you think this organization's poll might be a bit biased?

"We are leading the fight against Republican efforts to repeal and sabotage health care and working to provide lower costs and better care for all of Americans."

[fattyflattie 4640]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Who are you voting for in both the POTUS and Senate elections?

 

No judgment, just curious.

R. 

I think the party figures it out (move center) after the hangover from Trump getting his ass kicked subsides.  I think it happens even faster if Senate receives similar ass kicking.

[Voldemort86 2259]

18 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

R. 

I think the party figures it out (move center) after the hangover from Trump getting his ass kicked subsides.  I think it happens even faster if Senate receives similar ass kicking.

Centrist repubs got crushed in the last republican primary. That’s always been the issue with the republican side. 
 

to be the nominee,you must have the approval of their rabid and racist base. Little Marco kept talking about wanting to be Ronald Reagan 2.0 and Jebra Bush regaled us all with tales of the Bush glory years. The voters resoundly rejected both of them.

who got second place in the primary?  Ted Cruz. The guy who 90% of America hates. 

The republican primary is a different animal.

do you really see all of the content geared towards republicans like FOX News and OAN going moderate or Jebra overnight?
 

it seems like a stretch that these guys could flip a switch and make all of the Trumpism disappear. His base will endure and they won’t support a Jebra or little Marco type candidate.

hannity gets 3 million views a night because he’s an angry and nasty fucker who uses trumpisms every other sentence like fake news, lame stream media, blah blah blah

Edited April 23, 2020 by Voldemort86

[fattyflattie 4640]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

do you really see all of the content geared towards republicans like FOX News and OAN going moderate or Jebra overnight?
 

it seems like a stretch that these guys could flip a switch and make all of the Trumpism disappear. His base will endure and they won’t support a Jebra or little Marco type candidate.

hannity gets 3 million views a night because he’s an angry and nasty fucker who uses trumpisms every other sentence like fake news, lame stream media, blah blah blah

I don't know, I don't watch any of that.  But I would think many would realize the most important thing is a win, kind of the sentiment of many here now. Plenty of D and more progressive not really thrilled with Biden, but want the W.  Want the return to normalcy.  So whether it's some squirreled away Bush, a Romney, whatever, plenty would take "their" guy and the W.   I know things have gotten far worse, but Hannity/Oreilly/etc were using the same tactics when W was in, and he's far from a Trump.  The left leaning was too.  Hard on Bush, taken it to 11 (rightfully so?) on Trump.  Same as it ever was.

[thrillhammer 686]

6 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Biden winning popular vote by 4-5% and and eking out an electoral college victory is not good enough. 

 

 

oh yes it is.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, thrillhammer said:

oh yes it is.

Trunp will lose something on the order of 54-46 or thereabouts, will lose Texas, and the electoral college will be a rout. The media will never tell you that because they need the horse race for ratings but that is what will happen. 

Trump and the republicans will never get over the fact that they called this thing a hoax.Normal people will remember that. And the ultra right wingers will continue to do so. They will continue to do that and they are therefore done.

All the republican bullshit in the world will not change that. They are done. Their party is done. And just like William Hardin and Hoover in the 30’s, the republicans are once again done for a generation. Maybe 50 years from now people will once again forget. 

May they rot in hell which is more than they deserve. 

[tantric superman 4668]

 

[berlinerbaer 692]

30 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Trunp will lose something on the order of 54-46 or thereabouts, will lose Texas, and the electoral college will be a rout. The media will never tell you that because they need the horse race for ratings but that is what will happen. 

Trump and the republicans will never get over the fact that they called this thing a hoax.Normal people will remember that. And the ultra right wingers will continue to do so. They will continue to do that and they are therefore done.

All the republican bullshit in the world will not change that. They are done. Their party is done. And just like William Hardin and Hoover in the 30’s, the republicans are once again done for a generation. Maybe 50 years from now people will once again forget. 

May they rot in hell which is more than they deserve. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

18 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

Yes 

[Larry T. Spider 1747]

The odds from my gambling site have trump overall -150 and -500 for Texas. If you really believe he will lose Texas then go get rich betting Biden. 

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

On 4/22/2020 at 11:56 PM, thepop said:

Didn’t he just raise a ton in March? I don’t think money will be an issue.

Money is never an issue in a national race.  Not one single candidate in the last infinite elections has had to worry about where funding for their next ad blitz will come from.

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

13 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I really think there is a more than 50% chance he is indicted almost immediately upon leaving office by the State of NY, at the very least.

Fucking better be 100%.  Like as soon as the words "preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States." come out of Biden's mouth the dotard better be cuffed and stuffed.

[WBT 20884]

Perhaps there could be some sort of chant at Biden campaign rallies

[Jack Straw 2955]

19 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

What becomes of the cult?  Literally millions of people.  Our only hope is without their goblin king at the helm, they'll lose interest and go back under their rocks.  But if they don't, we will have a decades long problem.

it doesn’t stop with getting Trump out of the White House.  there needs to be a long - probably decades long - concerted effort to remove every Republican and elected official from every possible office and position of authority at every level - federal, state, local; and to punish and marginalize the voice and influence of Republican voters and supporters going forward.  they offer zero value to the country and are huge net negatives to society as a whole. 

[Hookah Horns 3089]

10 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Trunp will lose something on the order of 54-46 or thereabouts, will lose Texas, and the electoral college will be a rout. The media will never tell you that because they need the horse race for ratings but that is what will happen. 

Trump and the republicans will never get over the fact that they called this thing a hoax.Normal people will remember that. And the ultra right wingers will continue to do so. They will continue to do that and they are therefore done.

All the republican bullshit in the world will not change that. They are done. Their party is done. And just like William Hardin and Hoover in the 30’s, the republicans are once again done for a generation. Maybe 50 years from now people will once again forget. 

May they rot in hell which is more than they deserve. 

Man would I love to see dyed-red rural Texas take an L. 

[G650 14421]

20 hours ago, gmr548 said:

So this isn't a judgment of you, but "really, the party left me" is exactly what I'm talking about. The implication being that GOP was kosher pre-Trump, you still feel that way, and would probably go back of it reverted to that. Yes?

 

Useless but interesting experiment, sample of one: Romney or someone similar in ideology (I have no idea how old he is tbh, maybe that ship has sailed) and wholesomeness vs some Democrat younger and more liberal than 107 year old Biden in 2024.

 

Democrats have held the House for six years, the Senate for two to four. They're getting their judges, they've raised top tax rates, Amazon at least pays more taxes than an American making $40k. Federal agencies/regulatory policy are run like they were under Obama. Economy's okay but definitely still a COVID hangover - not dissimilar to the environment in 2012.

 

Neither single payer healthcare or green new deal have happened but this new Democrat is open about supporting these policies and they're probably going through if Democrats keep control of the federal government.

 

The House is still probably not in play but the Senate is, and Ted Cruz is up again in Texas. He's back to trying the whole principled conservative intellectual shtick and pretending he didn't spend four years gargling Trump's balls. Easier out on this one - a more moderate suburban wave Democrat like Collin Allred (sp?) or Lizzie Fletcher is running.

 

Who are you voting for in both the POTUS and Senate elections?

 

No judgment, just curious.

 

As I mentioned, I can only speak for me, but as a former enter rightish voter, I have trouble seeing myself ever voting for a R congressional candidate again. I would be much more inclined to vote say Romney for President than any Republican Senate candidate.

[Biff Tannen 46061]

1 hour ago, Jack Straw said:

it doesn’t stop with getting Trump out of the White House.  there needs to be a long - probably decades long - concerted effort to remove every Republican and elected official from every possible office and position of authority at every level - federal, state, local; and to punish and marginalize the voice and influence of Republican voters and supporters going forward.  they offer zero value to the country and are huge net negatives to society as a whole. 

While I of course agree, this isn't really a feasible option.  I think they R party will probably (hopefully) be marginalized for the next decade or so to where they are forced to jettison the most cancerous actors, but like it or not, we are a two party system, at least for now.  Rs will continue to get at least 30-40% of the vote.  The govt will never be 100%, or probably even 70-80% Dem.

[Snake Diggity 4698]

Is trying to inject some temperance a bad idea?  Seems like all of a sudden this thread is a Biden victory party.  (Before I go on, let me be clear:  I FUCKING HATE DONALD TRUMP.)

Theres still 6 months to the election and a ton can change in that time.  Biden hasn’t announced his running mate.  There haven’t been any debates.  The economy could improve quickly.  There could be election meddling (both foreign and domestic).  Hell, Biden could die or get too sick to run.  Sure, the vast majority of the polls indicate Biden will win, as does common sense.  But that was also the case in 2016.  And it seems like betting lines still favor Trump.

 

Just seems like the consistent refrain of this thread that the election is in the bag for Biden and this is the end of the line for narrow-worldview-right-wing influence might be jumping the gun a bit.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Biff Tannen 46061]

Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Is trying to inject some temperance a bad idea?

ISWYDT.  But yes, you are correct.  I think it's just that the dotard went more insane than usual yesterday, so it gets our hopes up.  Vigilance is key.  We cannot rest on this shit until...well never really, but at least until after the election.  

[Jack Straw 2955]

13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

While I of course agree, this isn't really a feasible option.  I think they R party will probably (hopefully) be marginalized for the next decade or so to where they are forced to jettison the most cancerous actors, but like it or not, we are a two party system, at least for now.  Rs will continue to get at least 30-40% of the vote.  The govt will never be 100%, or probably even 70-80% Dem.

sure.  i'm not advocating for 100% D govt.  but the goal should absolutely be 0% R govt. - even if it is not an attainable goal.  Republicans simply have nothing of value to offer.  every R that is removed from or replaced in any office is a victory.  Trump is A problem, and is surely a dangerous and immediate problem, but THE problem is Republicans - they are the ones who brought us Trump despite 16 other alternatives to choose from (although, admittedly, many of them would have been awful, especially Cruz) - and they are the ones who have continued to support him, and continue to support and elect the sycophants who excuse and foster Trump's complete incompetence and criminality.  they can be marginalized and their voices drowned out if enough sane people work at it over time.

[thrillhammer 686]

43 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Is trying to inject some temperance a bad idea?  Seems like all of a sudden this thread is a Biden victory party.  (Before I go on, let me be clear:  I FUCKING HATE DONALD TRUMP.)

Theres still 6 months to the election and a ton can change in that time.  Biden hasn’t announced his running mate.  There haven’t been any debates.  The economy could improve quickly.  There could be election meddling (both foreign and domestic).  Hell, Biden could die or get too sick to run.  Sure, the vast majority of the polls indicate Biden will win, as does common sense.  But that was also the case in 2016.  And it seems like betting lines still favor Trump.

 

Just seems like the consistent refrain of this thread that the election is in the bag for Biden and this is the end of the line for narrow-worldview-right-wing influence might be jumping the gun a bit.

good post.  let's not start sucking each others dicks just yet.

[gmr548 16681]

There haven’t been any debates.

Can't wait for both candidates to lose

[Pig Bellmont 8867]

https://twitter.com/waltshaub/status/1253687962300223489?s=20
 

if I were Biden, I’d hit Trump hard on the foreign debt his company owes. I’m now convinced that’s the details he so desperately needs hidden from his taxes. 200 million to China? No one wants a president owned by the Chinese

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Is trying to inject some temperance a bad idea?  Seems like all of a sudden this thread is a Biden victory party.  (Before I go on, let me be clear:  I FUCKING HATE DONALD TRUMP.)

Theres still 6 months to the election and a ton can change in that time.  Biden hasn’t announced his running mate.  There haven’t been any debates.  The economy could improve quickly.  There could be election meddling (both foreign and domestic).  Hell, Biden could die or get too sick to run.  Sure, the vast majority of the polls indicate Biden will win, as does common sense.  But that was also the case in 2016.  And it seems like betting lines still favor Trump.

 

Just seems like the consistent refrain of this thread that the election is in the bag for Biden and this is the end of the line for narrow-worldview-right-wing influence might be jumping the gun a bit.

I agree that the attitude shouldn't be "Biden's got this". But I also don't think we should concern troll ourselves into expecting the election to be super close. This can be a blowout if everyone is disciplined by simply voting and encouraging everyone else to do their part in removing Trump/GOP from power. 

 

 

[Bullneck 19454]

On 4/23/2020 at 11:57 AM, Biff Tannen said:

I really think there is a more than 50% chance he is indicted almost immediately upon leaving office by the State of NY, at the very least.

Or die.  

I'd love to see him run for HMX-1 on his last day in orrice only to be stopped by the FBI and taken away in cuffs.

Edited April 24, 2020 by Bullneck

[henrygandorf 29221]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Is trying to inject some temperance a bad idea?  Seems like all of a sudden this thread is a Biden victory party.

i think it's just reaction to current favorable polls in real time, while watching the president act like a smug asshole on tv every day.  if i'm reading good things about the horns or astros a few months before the season starts, it's gonna put me in a good mood and it's fun to talk about.

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Biden hasn’t announced his running mate.

this won't move the needle.  at least not down.  it'll be a woman.  it'll be someone non-controversial and non-polarizing.  the lists are out there, and i would guess it'll be one of those 4-5.

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

There haven’t been any debates.

and there might not be.  if there are, there will be one.  i would set the o/u at .5 if i was vegas.  and a debate won't mean shit.  there are no "undecided" voters, just voter/non-voters.  if you're interested enough to watch a presidential debate, you likely already know who you're voting for.

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

The economy could improve quickly.

and drinking bleach could cure covid-19.

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

There could be election meddling (both foreign and domestic).

there definitely will be some bullshit.  mostly voter suppression and online nonsense.  

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Hell, Biden could die or get too sick to run.

i've seen nothing to suggest that trump is any healthier than biden.  i would bet money on the opposite being true.  of course trump would run from an iron lung if he had to.  biden isn't going anywhere.

4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Sure, the vast majority of the polls indicate Biden will win, as does common sense.

 all we have now is the polling and conversation.

4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

But that was also the case in 2016.

something happens once and now it becomes the rallying point for anyone who wants it to happen again.  that's some aggy bullshit.  a lot of things went wrong in 2016.  to have them happen again would be a mathematical anomaly.  thankfully, hillary clinton is not walking through that door.  i would much rather in biden's position than trump's right now.

4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

And it seems like betting lines still favor Trump.

the latest i've seen are close to 50/50.  trump is at $0.51 on predictit, but those are tilted a little to get action (including hillary, cuomo, etc).  his betting position is outperforming his polls for sure, but to say he's favored is a stretch.  more polls + announcing a running mate + getting us through a virtual convention = the lines in august will look different.

4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Just seems like the consistent refrain of this thread that the election is in the bag for Biden and this is the end of the line for narrow-worldview-right-wing influence might be jumping the gun a bit.

i don't think anyone thinks it's a done deal.  but it looks good right now, and that pleases the majority of us.  running all the r's straight out of politics is just fun aspirational talk/fanfic.

[gmr548 16681]

i don't think anyone thinks it's a done deal.  but it looks good right now, and that pleases the majority of us.  running all the r's straight out of politics is just fun aspirational talk/fanfic.

I'd add that 1.) 2016 on its own was an outlier; 2.) Predictit is also skewed because it's exclusively old white males, meaning Republicans and the implicit bias that goes with that are way overrepresented. GOP odds are inflated there in general.

[Snake Diggity 4698]

Haven’t seen much discussion on running mates for Biden.  When is he expected to announce?  Looking at D Governors and Senators, here’s how I’d group/handicap:

Criteria:

Democrat

Not over 70

Experience as a governor or senator 

Bonus points for being female, minority, or in a swing state

 

Favorites:

Kamala Harris

Amy Klobuchar

Debbie Stabenow

Sherrod Brown

Tammy Baldwin

Corey Booker

 

Qualified darkhorses:

Michael Bennet

John Bel Edwards

Michelle Lujan

Jay Inslee

Tammy Duckworth

Gary Peters

Maggie Hassan

Kirsten Gillibrand

Patty Murray

Maria Cantwell

 

Darkhorses who are short on experience or are too old: Gretchen Whitmer, Liz Warren, Gavin Newsom, Kate Brown, Catherine Masto 

 

Others, qualified: Jared Polis, John Carney, David  Ige, JB Pritzker, Steve Bullock, Phil Murphy, Andrew Cuomo, Ralph Northam, Tim Walz , Chris Murphy, Chris Coons, Brian Schatz, Mazie Hirono, Chris Van Hollen, John Tester, Bob Menendez, Martin Heinrich, Chuck Schumer, Jeff Merkley, Bob Casey, Sheldon Whitehouse, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, 

Others who lack experience: Ned Lamont, Andy Beshear, Steve Sisolak, Roy Cooper, Tom Wolf, Gina Raimondo, Tony Evers, Doug Jones, Kyrsten Sinema, Tina Smith, Jay Rosen

Rumored, not qualified: Beto O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams, Susan Rice, KLB

 

Edited April 24, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Red Five 41596]

He already said he’s picking a woman.

[Pancho 46054]

21 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Haven’t seen much discussion on running mates for Biden.  When is he expected to announce?  Looking at D Governors and Senators, here’s how I’d group/handicap:

Criteria:

Democrat

Not over 70

Experience as a governor or senator 

Bonus points for being female, minority, or in a swing state

 

Favorites:

Kamala Harris

Amy Klobuchar

Debbie Stabenow

Sherrod Brown

Tammy Baldwin

Corey Booker

 

Qualified darkhorses:

Michael Bennet

John Bel Edwards

Michelle Lujan

Jay Inslee

Tammy Duckworth

Gary Peters

Maggie Hassan

Kirsten Gillibrand

Patty Murray

Maria Cantwell

 

Darkhorses who are short on experience or are too old: Gretchen Whitmer, Liz Warren, Gavin Newsom, Kate Brown, Catherine Masto 

 

Others, qualified: Jared Polis, John Carney, David  Ige, JB Pritzker, Steve Bullock, Phil Murphy, Andrew Cuomo, Ralph Northam, Tim Walz , Chris Murphy, Chris Coons, Brian Schatz, Mazie Hirono, Chris Van Hollen, John Tester, Bob Menendez, Martin Heinrich, Chuck Schumer, Jeff Merkley, Bob Casey, Sheldon Whitehouse, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, 

Others who lack experience: Ned Lamont, Andy Beshear, Steve Sisolak, Roy Cooper, Tom Wolf, Gina Raimondo, Tony Evers, Doug Jones, Kyrsten Sinema, Tina Smith, Jay Rosen

Rumored, not qualified: Beto O’Rourke, Stacey Abrams, Susan Rice, KLB

 

He’s already said it will be a woman, and there’s no reason to believe that he will go back on his word.  So all males on this list should be taken off.

Someone yesterday (CNN???) reported the Biden camp said they won’t even start the vetting until July, which we all know vetting has essentially already started. 

It could probably be one of the following:

Warren

Klo

Kamala

Whitmer

Abrams

Demmings

Cortez-Masto 

Lujan-Grisham

[Message Board User 12405]