2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

"Rambling off into the Weeds in a Rose Garden" 

2020 simulation does have a sense of poetry, at least.  

The WH Rose Garden is beautiful and the gardening staff do wonderful work. Mother Nature in the wild has a random lusty beauty that can take your breath away weeds and all, but in this Administration,  neglect and lack of care for living things results in sloppiness everywhere: in thought, in words, in deeds.

1 minute ago, Snake Diggity said:

A LOT of voters judge the “economy” by the stock market, and by that measure the “economy” is nearly as good as it was in December.  If the Moderna or Oxford vaccine is announced in Sept that Phase III trials have been going so well they are starting to distribute in some reduced capacity, and another massive stimulus is passed, the Dow/Nasdaq will be at all time highs heading into the election.  Combine that with a few months of no more protests and mask orders being followed that allow things to have opened up most of the way...and there’s still a path for him.  Especially when adding the possibility of foreign interference.

True, but timing is going to be everything. We will still be running a large uncontrolled experiment when K-12 and higher ed begin, and the roller coaster could make everyone queasy.

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

The WH Rose Garden is beautiful and the gardening staff do wonderful work. Mother Nature in the wild has a random lusty beauty that can take your breath away weeds and all, but in this Administration,  neglect and lack of care for living things results in sloppiness everywhere: in thought, in words, in deeds.

I've only ever written/read maybe 10% of this site as being "real life", but I do in all honesty find you to be very insightful and pithy.  However, considering the political nature of the garden conversation, I read your post in the voice of Chauncey Gardner.  But I mean that in a nice way.  

Edited July 15, 2020 by Lobo

[Bateshorn 9899]

They are not going to be distributing a vaccine by election day.  Assuming any of these survive Phase 3, they are going to have to go into production which will take a long time.  You don't just waive a wand over a pot and tens of millions of full glass vials suddenly appear.  Additionally, They will likely going to be distributed to front line workers first, then the general public.

From my end, the GOP is dithering about the next round of stimulus.  They can't get their deficit hawks on board right now. 

The key number here is over 50% of registered voters DESPISE Donald Trump.  They loathe him.  It's very hard to imagine a scenario where that changes.

Edited July 15, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

16 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I've only ever written/read maybe 10% of this site as being "real life", but I do in all honesty find you to be very insightful and pithy.  However, considering the political nature of the garden conversation, I read your post in the voice of Chauncey Gardner.  But I mean that in a nice way.  

Haha! I enjoy Surly and the people whose thoughts, discussions, and debates form its pages. It's way more insightful than other forums. It's a good thing.

I do like to watch tv.

[Guest Lobo]

Tell me, Do you believe the roots of the garden are strong?  That with new leadership, that spring and summer will come again?  

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

The key number here is over 50% of registered voters DESPISE Donald Trump.  They loathe him.  It's very hard to imagine a scenario where that changes.

It's not going to change, but Mr. I Can't Help But Spill The (nonGoya) Beans sure does project a lot of "I'm going to cheat with Russian Mail In Voter Fraud" and other shenanigans.

[kevwun 15647]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

They are not going to be distributing a vaccine by election day.  Assuming any of these survive Phase 3, they are going to have to go into production which will take a long time.  You don't just waive a wand over a pot and tens of millions of full glass vials suddenly appear.  Additionally, They will likely going to be distributed to front line workers first, then the general public.

From my end, the GOP is dithering about the next round of stimulus.  They can't get their deficit hawks on board right now. 

The key number here is over 50% of registered voters DESPISE Donald Trump.  They loathe him.  It's very hard to imagine a scenario where that changes.

Moderna is shooting for 2021 per an article I read yesterday.  They think they can produce 500 millions units a year starting then.  This assumes no issues in the rest of the development process.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

38 minutes ago, Lobo said:

They'll think that voting out Trump means he'll have to hang up his lab coat and terminate his critical scientific research.  

lulz

[Biff Tannen 45494]

38 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

A LOT of voters judge the “economy” by the stock market, and by that measure the “economy” is nearly as good as it was in December.  If the Moderna or Oxford vaccine is announced in Sept that Phase III trials have been going so well they are starting to distribute in some reduced capacity, and another massive stimulus is passed, the Dow/Nasdaq will be at all time highs heading into the election.  Combine that with a few months of no more protests and mask orders being followed that allow things to have opened up most of the way...and there’s still a path for him.  Especially when adding the possibility of foreign interference.

MOAR.  We have to keep this mindset.  

[Guest Lobo]

43 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

A LOT of voters judge the “economy” by the stock market, and by that measure the “economy” is nearly as good as it was in December.  If the Moderna or Oxford vaccine is announced in Sept that Phase III trials have been going so well they are starting to distribute in some reduced capacity, and another massive stimulus is passed, the Dow/Nasdaq will be at all time highs heading into the election.  Combine that with a few months of no more protests and mask orders being followed that allow things to have opened up most of the way...and there’s still a path for him.  Especially when adding the possibility of foreign interference.

That is a path but the 250,000 rotting American corpses by Election Day will say otherwise.  To have lost more Americans in 8 months than we did in all of the Pacific Theater in 4 years.  Not for defeating evil and tyranny but because of the ineptitude of one man and the celebration of that ignorance by 62 million people out of 332 million.  What a bizarre way to go as a nation. 

We've all heard of someone who died from Covid-19 so far.  By Election Day, we'll all be related to one.  

Edited July 15, 2020 by Lobo

[Voldemort86 2259]

56 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Disagree.  Without coronavirus Trump almost certainly wins (although the election would have been close).  No virus, no tanked economy.  No tanked economy, probably no protests.  Also, the virus removed a lot of people’s ability to distract themselves from his incompetence.  The virus beat Trump by fully exposing him.  

That said, it’s still July, and there are plenty of things that could happen over the next 100 days to give Trump a shot.  Biden dying, a proven/effective/available vaccine, etc could totally change that fragile 15% of voters from blue to red.

This is an awful take. 
 

Trumps first victory was pretty much an inside straight or a 7-10 split. Throughout his first term, the guy hasn’t picked up any new voters or made an effort to expand his base. He always governed to his base. 
 

even before coronavirus got here, Trump was still trailing Biden in the polls.  I think it would’ve been a nail biter with Biden having the edge, but now this is shaping up to be a blow out as long as all Supreme Court justices and Biden himself hang on to see it through.

[Storm the Field 5273]

MOAR polling!

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

who are those 54% that think the economy great?

[Guest Lobo]

Bingo parlor staff?  

[cactusflinthead 27594]

 

[lemonlime 5503]

51 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, that was his shot at it. But I think those guys went from lean blue to sage blue, not pink to light blue. 13 points is dark fucking blue man. 

PA is still lean blue/swing state generally. But Biden's the local boy from Scranton who did good.  

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

Tell me, Do you believe the roots of the garden are strong?  That with new leadership, that spring and summer will come again?  

Well, I used to. But I'm a little cynical. And not a little afraid. I'm worried that this is the period (sorry to Godwin this) of political upheaval not unlike pre WWII Germany that could lead to a post-Democratic (if it is a four year term for Biden) fascism/oligarchy. There is a blight that needs more than just sunlight to cure. It needs more than hope, it needs a lot of TLC and a willingness to prune away any disease until what is left is strong and healthy and able to withstand harsh conditions. It also needs patience. The GOP leadership and those that fund them have been patient and they may go to ground and resurface, not as a new re-imagined conservative party, but as a zealous nationalist movement and with better spokespeople than the current officeholder. The wealth concentration, the law and order they have manipulated will forever be in their favor but with nationalism, they can control the spigot forever.

I'm not sure that the bulk of the populace is able to be that patient, however, and Biden will be judged with a ticking clock that will be relentless. I have hope, but it is a guarded hope. Our life on Earth is filled with surprises, both pleasant and not so much, let us prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

(This time, humor me and imagine David Attenborough. I'm female, but he is a lovely narrator).

 

[Storm the Field 5273]

Rasmussen apparently thinks the race has completely shifted in the span of 7 days.

7/8: Trump 44% approval, Biden +10 (50/40).

7/15: Trump 48% approval, Biden +3 (47/44).

LOL!

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

12 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is an awful take. 
 

Trumps first victory was pretty much an inside straight or a 7-10 split. Throughout his first term, the guy hasn’t picked up any new voters or made an effort to expand his base. He always governed to his base. 
 

even before coronavirus got here, Trump was still trailing Biden in the polls.  I think it would’ve been a nail biter with Biden having the edge, but now this is shaping up to be a blow out as long as all Supreme Court justices and Biden himself hang on to see it through.

i was bullish enough that i put $800 on biden in february.  no one else was really saying so at the time, betting market were still something like 2-1 trump, but my thinking was exactly what you said: it was razor thin last time, he did nothing to expand his appeal, and the electorate every day is browner/urbaner/educateder, all of which trend against him.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

11 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

who are those 54% that think the economy great?

Those who judge the economy solely by the stock market and their employment status.

 

[Hank Kingsley 20689]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Disagree.  Without coronavirus Trump almost certainly wins (although the election would have been close).  No virus, no tanked economy.  No tanked economy, probably no protests.  Also, the virus removed a lot of people’s ability to distract themselves from his incompetence.  The virus beat Trump by fully exposing him.  

That said, it’s still July, and there are plenty of things that could happen over the next 100 days to give Trump a shot.  Biden dying, a proven/effective/available vaccine, etc could totally change that fragile 15% of voters from blue to red.

Let's be clear. Trump was losing to Biden before COVID. It was closer, sure, but Biden was the favorite to win. The economy argument is popular, but not rooted in much reality. 

Also, coronavirus didn't have to be a killer for Trump. IMO it was actually a chance for him to rebound and get re-elected. Americans fucking love to rally around something. They treat politicians like fucking heroes for simply doing their basic job during a crisis. All Trump had to do with coronavirus is care. That's it. Take the pandemic and cautions needed seriously and grieve for the people we have lost. It's so fucking simple. But he can't do it because he's a sociopath.  Donald Trump is to blame for his terrible polling. Nothing else. 

 

 

 

 

[Storm the Field 5273]

Only real negative I saw in that NBC/WSJ poll is that maybe some of the Biden attacks are starting to land. 

Unfavorable went from 38% to 46%, although Trump is still viewed more unfavorably (54%).

[gmr548 16509]

A LOT of voters judge the “economy” by the stock market

Uh, no. Half of American households don't own a single share and something like 90 percent of stock is controlled by the top 10 percentn of wealthy households. You know who someone concerned with the stock market is voting for because they're reliably GOP.

Except for weirdo day trader libertarians.

[Huckleberry 32701]

Just now, gmr548 said:

 

 

Uh, no. Half of American households don't own a single share and something like 90 percent of stock is controlled by the top 10 percentn of wealthy households. You know who someone concerned with the stock market is voting for because they're reliably GOP.

Except for weirdo day trader libertarians.

 

He's absolutely right. Do you not think there are millions of Americans who know jack shit about the economy, don't own a single stock, yet have completely bought into the propaganda that the DJIA is the economy? Because they're out there, and there are a lot of them. 

[Hank Kingsley 20689]

Trump was losing to Biden in the polls pre-COVID even with strong economy polling. 

The economy argument for Trump's re-election was kind of thrown out once Bernie lost. 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33843]

wow, there seems to be a large hack of twitter going on. has already hit Biden, Obama, and even God's accounts. Every time I try to copy they disappear

[gmr548 16509]

He's absolutely right. Do you not think there are millions of Americans who know jack shit about the economy, don't own a single stock, yet have completely bought into the propaganda that the DJIA is the economy? Because they're out there, and there are a lot of them. 

No I don't deny a large volume of stupid people exist. I think someone that economically illiterate is either 1.) Not voting - to be fair, there's probably a large overlap with the 40-50 percebt that don't own stock and the 40-50 percent that don't vote, or 2.) Voting for Trump and look at the stock market as evidence he's the messiah.

I don't think a stock market rebound is going to make voters go "we're good now" and switch to Trump because the rebound has already happened and it hasn't helped.

Not to mention financial markets could be about to get quite volitile here in the next couple weeks as various relief provisions expire.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

27 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Let's be clear. Trump was losing to Biden before COVID. It was closer, sure, but Biden was the favorite to win. The economy argument is popular, but not rooted in much reality. 

Also, coronavirus didn't have to be a killer for Trump. IMO it was actually a chance for him to rebound and get re-elected. Americans fucking love to rally around something. They treat politicians like fucking heroes for simply doing their basic job during a crisis. All Trump had to do with coronavirus is care. That's it. Take the pandemic and cautions needed seriously and grieve for the people we have lost. It's so fucking simple. But he can't do it because he's a sociopath.  Donald Trump is to blame for his terrible polling. Nothing else. 

 

 

 

 

What’s amazing is I think all Trump REALLY had to do is, in early March, come out to the rose garden in a mask, and say “everyone should wear one of these every single time they leave their house.  And make your own because our healthcare workers need all the existing ones. I encourage all governors to issues mandates requiring masks when in public.”  I truly believe that would have prevented the whole damn thing.  May not have even had to lock down.

[Biff Tannen 45494]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

He's absolutely right. Do you not think there are millions of Americans who know jack shit about the economy, don't own a single stock, yet have completely bought into the propaganda that the DJIA is the economy? Because they're out there, and there are a lot of them. 

Yep.  And they have the idea that ONE DAY they'll be rich and able to buy a bunch of stocks and get even richer!  One day you'll see!

[Hank Kingsley 20689]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

What’s amazing is I think all Trump REALLY had to do is, in early March, come out to the rose garden in a mask, and say “everyone should wear one of these every single time they leave their house.  And make your own because our healthcare workers need all the existing ones. I encourage all governors to issues mandates requiring masks when in public.”  I truly believe that would have prevented the whole damn thing.  May not have even had to lock down.

The only completely unbelievable part of this scenario is Trump acting responsibly. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

47 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Rasmussen apparently thinks the race has completely shifted in the span of 7 days.

7/8: Trump 44% approval, Biden +10 (50/40).

7/15: Trump 48% approval, Biden +3 (47/44).

LOL!

Do they just draw straws weekly to see who has to publish the one screw ball poll that shows Trump with a slight chance so people will continue to consume polls? 

[Gil Bang 25897]

7 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Being anti-Dillo is a pretty defensible position. Especially if you’re in favor of parking on public streets. 

and not wearing visors. 

[The Dog 43803]

53 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Rasmussen apparently thinks the race has completely shifted in the span of 7 days.

7/8: Trump 44% approval, Biden +10 (50/40).

7/15: Trump 48% approval, Biden +3 (47/44).

LOL!

Good luck finding the crosstabs on the most recent one. 

the page with the info is missing some detail: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/questions/pt_survey_questions/july_2020/questions_white_house_watch_july_8_9_and_12_14_2020

[Dbeasy 14966]

Talked today with a high level exec that usually votes Republican under the false premise that they are better for business and the economy.  For the first time in 3 and a half years, today he said he doesn't think he'll vote for Trump. He will just stay home. He may be full of shit, but it was encouraging to at least finally hear a selfish Republican elite finally crack a bit.  Trump is such a disaster, it's getting almost impossible for people to continue to be fooled by the right media propaganda.  Let's hope this trend continues.

[Bruh Man 3160]

He's full of shit. 

[Gil Bang 25897]

32 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Talked today with a high level exec that usually votes Republican under the false premise that they are better for business and the economy.  For the first time in 3 and a half years, today he said he doesn't think he'll vote for Trump. He will just stay home. He may be full of shit, but it was encouraging to at least finally hear a selfish Republican elite finally crack a bit.  Trump is such a disaster, it's getting almost impossible for people to continue to be fooled by the right media propaganda.  Let's hope this trend continues.

Staying at home is a vote for Trump, and it's the pussy way out. 

Have some fucking balls. Either you want Trump for another term, or you don't.   If you do, vote for Trump. If you don't, vote for Biden.  It's pretty fucking simple. 

[Hank Kingsley 20689]

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Brad is still going to be the data guy, according to the NYT.

So MOAR Death Star on the digital side.

 

@Hiphopopotamos with the faster report.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
Edit

[Hiphopopotamos 20865]

 

[cactusflinthead 27594]

Ooh he did it. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

Shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic, circling the drain, etc. etc. etc.

Edited July 16, 2020 by JimmyJames

[JimmyJames 12271]

The problem is he’s taking the country with him. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

8 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Shuffling the deck chairs on the titanic, circling the drain, etc. etc. etc.

[Francisco 2.0 32333]

I'm just gonna assume that Parscale shifts the grifting schemes for himself into overdrive at this point.

I mean, why not.  If he's the only person around who understands all this digital shit, why not start up a new "10X!" campaign and route it all into his pockets.  The ship's going down, Trump is going to be Trump, and whoever the new person is really isn't going to change anything.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

This is reassuring.

[Hookah Horns 3079]

3 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Let's be clear. Trump was losing to Biden before COVID. It was closer, sure, but Biden was the favorite to win. The economy argument is popular, but not rooted in much reality. 

Also, coronavirus didn't have to be a killer for Trump. IMO it was actually a chance for him to rebound and get re-elected. Americans fucking love to rally around something. They treat politicians like fucking heroes for simply doing their basic job during a crisis. All Trump had to do with coronavirus is care. That's it. Take the pandemic and cautions needed seriously and grieve for the people we have lost. It's so fucking simple. But he can't do it because he's a sociopath.  Donald Trump is to blame for his terrible polling. Nothing else. 

 

 

 

 

I think he could have pretended to care well enough to fool a lot of undecideds. Sociopaths are usually pretty decent at pretense. 

Nay, what sunk trump is his miniscule, decrepit brain and the idiocy of the people he listens to in his echo chamber, that led him to believe he could protect the economy from covid by being dismissive and dishonest about it.

Because dishonesty is his default tactic. It had gotten him into the White House and he was going to dance with who brung him. But this time, the consequences of the lying were too immediate and disastrous for him to ameliorate with more lies.

It was a perfect storm of stupidity, compulsive lying, and arrogance that sunk Trump. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

23 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

90% of the worlds reaction -  this is a sign of weakness and desperation by the trump campaign.

 

10% of the worlds reaction ( Trumpkins) - Bill Stepien has the silver bullet! MAGA! Stepien knows how to slam Biden relentlessly. Parscale was too nice. Red wave 2020 fellas. Trump is going to the top. He will be on Mount Rushmore some day.  MAGA MAGA MAGA

[Hookah Horns 3079]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

Staying at home is a vote for Trump, and it's the pussy way out. 

Have some fucking balls. Either you want Trump for another term, or you don't.   If you do, vote for Trump. If you don't, vote for Biden.  It's pretty fucking simple. 

It is. But so many of these people have thoroughly convinced themselves that a president Biden will usher in a socialist revolution. My parents are two such people. There's no chance they'll ever vote D (they wouldn't even if I was the D nominee for president), so I'm just hoping they'll sit out the election and at least not cancel out my vote. 

[Hookah Horns 3079]

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

90% of the worlds reaction -  this is a sign of weakness and desperation by the trump campaign.

 

10% of the worlds reaction ( Trumpkins) - Bill Stepien has the silver bullet! MAGA! Stepien knows how to slam Biden relentlessly. Parscale was too nice. Red wave 2020 fellas. Trump is going to the top. He will be on Mount Rushmore some day.  MAGA MAGA MAGA

Par$cale knew how to build the Death Star, but Stepien's the one who knows how to use it! MAGA! Whoop! 

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

90% of the worlds reaction -  this is a sign of weakness and desperation by the trump campaign.

 

10% of the worlds reaction ( Trumpkins) - Bill Stepien has the silver bullet! MAGA! Stepien knows how to slam Biden relentlessly. Parscale was too nice. Red wave 2020 fellas. Trump is going to the top. He will be on Mount Rushmore some day.  MAGA MAGA MAGA

It's also a sign of cheating to win at all costs. Stepien should've been tossed during Bridgegate; he knew the score.