2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[DigglerontheHoof 21,061]

8 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As someone who wants Trump out, I'm skeptical of the polls until I see Trump lose. There are more people than you think that feel ashamed to publicly support Trump but let's see how they vote when no one is looking. In their minds, they will create the justification and feel good about their choice.

[Guest Lobo]

Good, let’s broadcast that message.  If a couple million of his followers don’t bother to get out and vote because they assume there’s five million silent Trump voters out there they’ll easily make up for them, even better!   

[Bruh Man 3,160]

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Bruh Man

[The Dog 43,803]

51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As someone who wants Trump out, I'm skeptical of the polls until I see Trump lose. There are more people than you think that feel ashamed to publicly support Trump but let's see how they vote when no one is looking. In their minds, they will create the justification and feel good about their choice.

Secret Trump Voters Didn’t Decide 2016 And Probably Won’t Swing 2020

[Storm the Field 5,273]

R +8 sample, though of course depends on how they weighted their results.

PARTY IDENTIFICATION: Republican 34% Democrat 26 Independent 33 Other/DK/NA 8

I actually got called for that one but missed the call. They left me a voicemail.

 

[henrygandorf 29,175]

53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As someone who wants Trump out, I'm skeptical of the polls until I see Trump lose. There are more people than you think that feel ashamed to publicly support Trump but let's see how they vote when no one is looking. In their minds, they will create the justification and feel good about their choice.

i've heard this so much, and i know this happened in 2016, particularly with the exit polls.  but imagine being so ashamed of your vote that you say yes to a pollster on the phone, but then say biden or undecided when they get to the most obvious question of the poll.  so ashamed you can't even mutter his name "anonymously" over a phone call.  i don't buy it.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

i've heard this so much, and i know this happened in 2016, particularly with the exit polls.  but imagine being so ashamed of your vote that you say yes to a pollster on the phone, but then say biden or undecided when they get to the most obvious question of the poll.  so ashamed you can't even mutter his name "anonymously" over a phone call.  i don't buy it.

i don't think it is very many of them either, but there are more motivations than just shame. some claim to actually want to screw with polls.

[Hiphopopotamos 20,865]

 

[Hiphopopotamos 20,865]

 

[Gil Bang 25,898]

 

[henrygandorf 29,175]

2 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

hundreds of thousands of dollars will be spent fighting over the attention span of one man.

[SubliminalHorn 6,674]

1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

hundreds of thousands of dollars will be spent fighting over the attention span of one man.

I recommend more ad buys in DC, lots of voters for him to pick up there

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

If I were handicapping, Biden is surging like a mofo, and I would predict 341-197.  For now I think OH, FL, and NC will be extremely close and all go blue, with AZ being the only current toss-up going to Trump (I will not see GA or TX as toss-ups until the election is called, too good to be true), and unless something drastic changes I think PA, WI, MI, and MN are safely blue.  As of now you really really have to squint to see any reasonable path for Trump to win.  It includes him winning ALL of GA, TX, FL, AZ, NC, OH, AND pulling one of MN, PA, WI, or MI.

BUT obviously Biden and his team and his voters would be utter fools to buy into the idea that this election is decided.  The virus could wane.  Biden could gaffe.  An international conflict could arise or spiral.  Interference could be rampant.

[Storm the Field 5,273]

LOL.

Nothing more obnoxious than seeing some version of that 50x under every polling result.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

As someone who wants Trump out, I'm skeptical of the polls until I see Trump lose. There are more people than you think that feel ashamed to publicly support Trump but let's see how they vote when no one is looking. In their minds, they will create the justification and feel good about their choice.

I think some Democrats are telling themselves that because of 2016 PTSD and as a way to keep them motivated to vote. 
 

however, If you look at the signs. Trump is losing. By the way Trump has governed since he won, he hasn’t grown his base of support. Most presidents try to make the US a better country for everyone, but Trump has made it painfully obvious that he’s trying to make it a better America for white people, wealthy people, racists, and selfish assholes. The guy is a colossal asshole who politicizes everything ( even the god damn census). He has no empathy for the nearly 150K people who have died because he let the virus spread in our country for several months uncontested while he downplayed both it’s existence and it’s threat to try and preserve the economy.

The Trump campaign was hoping for a narrow battlefield. They wanted to force Biden to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan with very tight polling. That’s not the reality. Biden is doing very well in those states. Biden is competitive in Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, and possibly Iowa / Ohio. He’s doing better than expected in Georgia / Texas. 
 

democrats still need to do a great job of turning out and they didn’t do that in 2016. I think it was due to a combination of Democrat fatigue, a lackluster election where both candidates were hated, and lots of voters gave trump a chance, but quickly regretted it. They won’t make that mistake again.

Trump won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by a combined 70K votes. That’s less than the full capacity of cowboys stadium or DKR. Hell Clinton was such a bad candidate that she lost independents by about 5. I’m fully confident that Biden will do much better with independents.

I know that the political environment can change, but this late in the game it’s unlikely. We are almost to August.

[Orale 1,087]

18 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

If I were handicapping, Biden is surging like a mofo, and I would predict 341-197.  For now I think OH, FL, and NC will be extremely close and all go blue, with AZ being the only current toss-up going to Trump (I will not see GA or TX as toss-ups until the election is called, too good to be true), and unless something drastic changes I think PA, WI, MI, and MN are safely blue.  As of now you really really have to squint to see any reasonable path for Trump to win.  It includes him winning ALL of GA, TX, FL, AZ, NC, OH, AND pulling one of MN, PA, WI, or MI.

BUT obviously Biden and his team and his voters would be utter fools to buy into the idea that this election is decided.  The virus could wane.  Biden could gaffe.  An international conflict could arise or spiral.  Interference could be rampant.

I could see Mark Kelley voters pushing Biden over the top in Arizona. 

[Biff Tannen 45,494]

6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump has made it painfully obvious that he’s trying to make it a better America for white people, wealthy people, racists, and selfish assholes.

Yes, but what has also been made painfully obvious is that there are a FUCKTON of those people in this country that vote.

[SydneyCarton 47,876]

7 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I think some Democrats are telling themselves that because of 2016 PTSD and as a way to keep them motivated to vote. 
 

however, If you look at the signs. Trump is losing. By the way Trump has governed since he won, he hasn’t grown his base of support. Most presidents try to make the US a better country for everyone, but Trump has made it painfully obvious that he’s trying to make it a better America for white people, wealthy people, racists, and selfish assholes. The guy is a colossal asshole who politicizes everything ( even the god damn census). He has no empathy for the nearly 150K people who have died because he let the virus spread in our country for several months uncontested while he downplayed both it’s existence and it’s threat to try and preserve the economy.

The Trump campaign was hoping for a narrow battlefield. They wanted to force Biden to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan with very tight polling. That’s not the reality. Biden is doing very well in those states. Biden is competitive in Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, and possibly Iowa / Ohio. He’s doing better than expected in Georgia / Texas. 
 

democrats still need to do a great job of turning out and they didn’t do that in 2016. I think it was due to a combination of Democrat fatigue, a lackluster election where both candidates were hated, and lots of voters gave trump a chance, but quickly regretted it. They won’t make that mistake again.

Trump won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by a combined 70K votes. That’s less than the full capacity of cowboys stadium or DKR. Hell Clinton was such a bad candidate that she lost independents by about 5. I’m fully confident that Biden will do much better with independents.

I know that the political environment can change, but this late in the game it’s unlikely. We are almost to August.

Counterpoint(s):

1) Why even push a notion that we can comfortably be complacent? No, get the fuck out and vote. As you said, but nonetheless don’t get comfortable. Why?

2) it needs to be a blowout. We need to win the senate back. I’d the election is close in jair a few places he’ll contest the election and burn it down on the way put. This idiot will call people to arms. So yeah, don’t get comfortable. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Counterpoint(s):

1) Why even push a notion that we can comfortably be complacent? No, get the fuck out and vote. As you said, but nonetheless don’t get comfortable. Why?

2) it needs to be a blowout. We need to win the senate back. I’d the election is close in jair a few places he’ll contest the election and burn it down on the way put. This idiot will call people to arms. So yeah, don’t get comfortable. 

I’m voting no matter what, but I can still objectively look at something and be able to say that it’s going better for us than it ever was in 2016.

[SydneyCarton 47,876]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

I’m voting no matter what, but I can still objectively look at something and be able to say that it’s going better for us than it ever was in 2016.

Yeah, sure. It looks better. But we’ve got a guy in office that will literally dismantle the constitution to steal an election. Sentiment may be better but the environment in which we’ll be acting is demonstrably, ludicrously worse and continues to get stacked against us daily with this guy. 

[Storm the Field 5,273]

Nate's getting ready to unleash the Kraken!

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Nate's getting ready to unleash the Kraken!

 

nate: you'll note that 80 is actually less than 90.  ppl forget that.  makes u think.

[Red Five 40,661]

One thing people hopefully learned in 2016 is that 70% does not mean 100%. Which may be what he's getting at. 

[Storm the Field 5,273]

My guess is he's prepping his audience for his model showing Biden like 85-90% chance to win pop vote vs. the Economist model's current 99% chance. 

He and Nate Cohn were having a nerd fight with Elliott Morris about this over the weekend.

[WBT 20,421]

22 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

nate: you'll note that 80 is actually less than 90.  ppl forget that.  makes u think.

His belief that his readers are too dumb to understand percentages and that things should instead be expressed in proper fractions is baffling.  All through the democratic primary, everything was Biden has a 2 in 5 chance, Bernie has a 1 in 10 chance, etc.  You had to click through to see the actual percentage.

Edited July 22, 2020 by WBT

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

Not a fan of Nate.  He’s like the Jim Cramer of polling. 

[gmr548 16,511]

I'm not going to hold my breath but polling on Trump v Biden has been a dead heat in Texas since April. To call it anything other than a tossup at this point is PTSD.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

To call it anything other than a tossup at this point is PTSD.

Quote

I'm not going to hold my breath 

 

[gmr548 16,511]

 

Difference between saying I wouldn't be super confident in a win vs it being absolutely too good to be true, as some said above.

[The Dog 43,803]

So just got called by a pollster (I think - it was the DCCC). After asking about the presidential election it started asking about congressional members I'd never heard of from Dallas.

I hung up.

[Red Five 40,661]

I’ve never once been polled. I’m like the opposite of South Austin’s mom.

[cactusflinthead 27,594]

8 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I’ve never once been polled. I’m like the opposite of South Austin’s mom.

You want to get on YouGov or Civiqs? If you fight through enough questions about the last vacation you took, YouGov will pay you. It took about a year, but I got a hundred dollars in a gift certificate from Amazon. They also ask about politics. I just took one geared to Texas.

[Pancho 44,475]

6 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

I think some Democrats are telling themselves that because of 2016 PTSD and as a way to keep them motivated to vote. 
 

however, If you look at the signs. Trump is losing. By the way Trump has governed since he won, he hasn’t grown his base of support. Most presidents try to make the US a better country for everyone, but Trump has made it painfully obvious that he’s trying to make it a better America for white people, wealthy people, racists, and selfish assholes. The guy is a colossal asshole who politicizes everything ( even the god damn census). He has no empathy for the nearly 150K people who have died because he let the virus spread in our country for several months uncontested while he downplayed both it’s existence and it’s threat to try and preserve the economy.

The Trump campaign was hoping for a narrow battlefield. They wanted to force Biden to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan with very tight polling. That’s not the reality. Biden is doing very well in those states. Biden is competitive in Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, and possibly Iowa / Ohio. He’s doing better than expected in Georgia / Texas. 
 

democrats still need to do a great job of turning out and they didn’t do that in 2016. I think it was due to a combination of Democrat fatigue, a lackluster election where both candidates were hated, and lots of voters gave trump a chance, but quickly regretted it. They won’t make that mistake again.

Trump won Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan by a combined 70K votes. That’s less than the full capacity of cowboys stadium or DKR. Hell Clinton was such a bad candidate that she lost independents by about 5. I’m fully confident that Biden will do much better with independents.

I know that the political environment can change, but this late in the game it’s unlikely. We are almost to August.

I think you underestimate what trump and republicans will do to stay in power.  If that means knowingly allowing Russia to interfere, magically have voting machines not work in urban areas, and magically have mail-in ballots go “missing,“ you know they will do it and go to bed that night comfortably. 

 

So as I’ve said before—i won’t feel comfortable until the 9pm update on November 3rd and NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox, MSNBC, CNN, and Nate Silver say Biden is the next POTUS. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I think you underestimate what trump and republicans will do to stay in power.  If that means knowingly allowing Russia to interfere, magically have voting machines not work in urban areas, and magically have mail-in ballots go “missing,“ you know they will do it and go to bed that night comfortably. 

 

So as I’ve said before—i won’t feel comfortable until the 9pm update on November 3rd and NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox, MSNBC, CNN, and Nate Silver say Biden is the next POTUS. 

The GOP hasn’t resorted to such tactics in 2008, 2012, and 2018 when they got their butts kicked.

why now?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

Just now, Voldemort86 said:

The GOP hasn’t resorted to such tactics in 2008, 2012, and 2018 when they got their butts kicked.

why now?

BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN EXPOSED AS COMPLETE CRIMINAL FRAUDS

[Biff Tannen 45,494]

3 hours ago, Pancho said:

i won’t feel comfortable until the 9pm update on November 3rd and NBC, CBS, ABC, Fox, MSNBC, CNN, and Nate Silver say Biden is the next POTUS. 

And then you don’t get to feel comfortable either because we have to all keep on guard to make sure these fuckos don’t take back power in any way in 2022, 2024, etc. 

These fucks aren’t going to quit. It’s not a one and done election. What we are living through has shown that we have to keep fighting until they are absolutely destroyed. I’m so annoyed. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Trump lobbed several wimpy attacks this week that shouldn’t stick unless people are extremely stupid.

trump said electing Biden would be a threat to suburban people’s way of life as he defunds the police, raises there property tax rates, and encourages crime.

he also released an ad with some old white woman watching Fox News with sean Hannity saying Biden will defund the police before she suddenly hears a man breaking into the house, as she calls 911, the phone operator says we can’t come to the phone right now as the man breaks in and attacks her. 
 

These attacks are so weak, but it’s all he’s got. Trump knows his administration isn’t capable of coming up with ideas and policies that appeal to your everyday American, so he has to try and scare people into voting for him. It’s so pathetic. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Oh look everyone. I found Trumps pollster!
 

The Michigan poll is laughable. That seems like a state that has given up on Trump. 
 

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are good numbers for Biden, considering it’s a crooked GOP pollster.

[Pancho 44,475]

9 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

The GOP hasn’t resorted to such tactics in 2008, 2012, and 2018 when they got their butts kicked.

why now?

First off, we are on the same side. 

With that said, they didn't resort to such tactics in 2008 and 2012 because they may have thought they would lose, but they didn't think people would leave their party in droves like they are now--some of which are never coming back.  I honestly don't think they thought 2018 would happen either.  But after 2018 did happen, they woke up and realized "oh shit, we are fucked."

Voters in this country are mostly left of center.  Voters haven't been trending the other way in god knows how long.  Combine that with a president like trump, and they know what's coming especially if Ds win all 3.

That's why I'm worried. 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

First off, we are on the same side. 

With that said, they didn't resort to such tactics in 2008 and 2012 because they may have thought they would lose, but they didn't think people would leave their party in droves like they are now--some of which are never coming back.  I honestly don't think they thought 2018 would happen either.  But after 2018 did happen, they woke up and realized "oh shit, we are fucked."

Voters in this country are mostly left of center.  Voters haven't been trending the other way in god knows how long.  Combine that with a president like trump, and they know what's coming especially if Ds win all 3.

That's why I'm worried. 

I get your concern, but way too many people are watching for them to get away with it. I think they have to fight fair. With that said, anyone who is voting by mail this year, I’d advise you to mail your ballot ASAP and probably drop it off at one of those mail drop boxes. Don’t leave it in your mail box where people could possibly mess with it.
 

 

[lemonlime 5,503]

The GOP hasn’t resorted to such tactics in 2008, 2012, and 2018 when they got their butts kicked.
why now?

They cheated in the presidential race in 2016, maybe in 2000 also. In 2018, they cheated in states they controlled—see Gov. Kemp. And see also the recent Wisconsin election. Among others. And that’s just off the top of my head.

Not sure why you think they’ll grow a conscious now.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

I get your concern, but way too many people are watching for them to get away with it. I think they have to fight fair. With that said, anyone who is voting by mail this year, I’d advise you to mail your ballot ASAP and probably drop it off at one of those mail drop boxes. Don’t leave it in your mail box where people could possibly mess with it.
 

 

GreenShirtGuy.gif

Trump appointing his friend to be in charge of the USPS  means the people who could possibly mess with it don't have to be standing outside in order to do so. Remember that SCOTUS ruling about the delayed ballots sent out (in Wisconsin)? Misdirected mail is a thing you know....

A potential problem might be, for example, holding ballots and then stamping them with a post date that would invalidate them. However, seems like that would be easily exposed. It isn't that voting by mail has been fraudulent in the past, it is that the GOP is laying out the accusations and groundwork in order to commit it.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

Conscience 

[SydneyCarton 47,876]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

I get your concern, but way too many people are watching for them to get away with it. I think they have to fight fair. With that said, anyone who is voting by mail this year, I’d advise you to mail your ballot ASAP and probably drop it off at one of those mail drop boxes. Don’t leave it in your mail box where people could possibly mess with it.
 

 

I think this is optimistic bordering on naive. When 40% of the country doesn’t care if the election is fair as long as their candidate remains in power, then the whole “too many people are watching” becomes less of a threat or concern to them. Especially given the alternative. So what people are watching? Germany? UK? Are they going to send in troops? Armies? No man. Enough people will fight on the side of the fascists that it’s a moot point. What happens when a state says it’s seceding? Who are the armies that will fight against DHS? I think concern for a rigged election is well more than zero, and what happens after that who the fuck knows. 

[Larry T. Spider 1,740]

The ramp up in voter suppression definitely has me worried that they will try something that will sway a close election. If we overwhelm them with dem turnout it won’t matter. 

We need to get as many people as possible in swing states to vote early. If they are trying to turn people away, it gives us more time to be on top of it and gives the person another opportunity to vote another day. It also keeps lines down on Election Day. Republicans love to reduce polling places in democratic areas knowing that not everyone can or will wait in a line that is hours long.

[WBT 20,421]

This is becoming the left's version of "illegal's are going to vote and steal the election."  I guess the impulse is bipartisan.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

I suppose it is. I'm distrustful of Trump appointees as they seem to have little regard for the law or ethics. Our Acting Secretary of DHS is out in Portland quelling protesters standing in the street by tear gassing them. The former Secretary at the DoE pressed Ukrainian officials to place one of his political supporters as an advisor to Zelensky and then within the month, the advisor's company had been awarded a fifty year contract for drilling rights in the Ukraine. (https://apnews.com/6d8ae551fb884371a2a592ed85a74426).

What Perry did was technically not illegal, and skirting ethics is a bipartisan skill, but this Administration has shown, time and time again that they are holding an empty gas can and standing outside the grocery store filled with flames and saying, "what are you going to do about it, huh?"

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

50 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think this is optimistic bordering on naive. When 40% of the country doesn’t care if the election is fair as long as their candidate remains in power, then the whole “too many people are watching” becomes less of a threat or concern to them. Especially given the alternative. So what people are watching? Germany? UK? Are they going to send in troops? Armies? No man. Enough people will fight on the side of the fascists that it’s a moot point. What happens when a state says it’s seceding? Who are the armies that will fight against DHS? I think concern for a rigged election is well more than zero, and what happens after that who the fuck knows. 

I know many people on this board ( myself included) would like to believe that everyone who votes GOP or is in that 40% are bad people with no morals or ethics, but that is just not the case. Trump has indeed brought in the bottom of the barrel in society to his base ( racists, white supremacists, misogynists, xenophobes, gun freaks, and the “ I have mine.....FUCK YOU” crowd).

i’d like to think that the bands of misfits listed above is at most 15% of that 40%. The other 25% are normal hard working people with families or single people who just work hard and want tax cuts or are somehow susceptible to fear and conspiracy theories.

Long story short is that the dangerous thugs are not 40% of this country. It’s much much less than that. I’m highly skeptical that the GOP can steal an election in plain sight. if say the polls, oddsmakers, and gambling sites have Biden expected to win easily the morning of Election Day and he doesn’t? The GOP would have some explaining to do. 

[lemonlime 5,503]

19 minutes ago, WBT said:

This is becoming the left's version of "illegal's are going to vote and steal the election."  I guess the impulse is bipartisan.

Trump was just impeached (it feels like years ago) for cheating in the 2020 election, and the GOP almost universally ran interference for his cheating.   And he's made up crap about illegals voting.  There are many examples of Republicans cheating at elections in recent years.  They may not have cheated in all elections, or enough to win all elections, but there's many examples of cheating.  Just because Republicans can invent a tale out of whole cloth to try and accuse Democrats of doing what the Republicans are guilty of, doesn't make this a both sides issue.

[lemonlime 5,503]

1 minute ago, Voldemort86 said:

I know many people on this board ( myself included) would like to believe that everyone who votes GOP or is in that 40% are bad people with no morals or ethics, but that is just not the case. Trump has indeed brought in the bottom of the barrel in society to his base ( racists, white supremacists, misogynists, xenophobes, gun freaks, and the “ I have mine.....FUCK YOU” crowd).

i’d like to think that the bands of misfits listed above is at most 15% of that 40%. The other 25% are normal hard working people with families or single people who just work hard and want tax cuts or are somehow susceptible to fear and conspiracy theories.

Long story short is that the dangerous thugs are not 40% of this country. It’s much much less than that. I’m highly skeptical that the GOP can steal an election in plain sight. if say the polls, oddsmakers, and gambling sites have Biden expected to win easily the morning of Election Day and he doesn’t? The GOP would have some explaining to do. 

Even assuming the bolded is true, they are cult members who get their news from other cult members.  They won't know enough about what happened to give a fuck.