2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Zonahorn 8,079]

One thing I find that bodes well for Biden is 3rd parties are pulling in nothing this year. There were tones of polls in 2016 that had the Libertarians and Green Party pulling 10% plus all the undecideds, and that just isn't happening this time.

[Hank Kingsley 20,692]

 

[Hank Kingsley 20,692]

What are spry polls? 

 

[The Dog 43,803]

8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

Those and the spry polls couldn't be more different. Wow.

[The Dog 43,803]

aaaand Trump just cancelled the RNC convention in Florida. 

[Bruh Man 3,160]

Click on the Fox article and read the comments to see what delusion looks like.

[henrygandorf 29,175]

47 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

these numbers are fairly devastating.  not just because trump has been hovering around 38-40% in every conceivable poll for over a year, but because biden is hovering around 50% just across the board.  it cannot be overstated that hillary's numbers, while showing her leading, did not approach 50% like this.  like someone said upthread, the 3rd party vote is close to non-existent this year, and it's gotten to the point where trump needs all the "undecideds" and that's just not how those things work.

also, once again, when the numbers are this consistent, you can throw the moe out the window.  the numbers pretty much are what they are at this point.

[mchookem 16,212]

i want to believe...

[Bookman 4,610]

God I can't wait to vote.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Big difference from 2016 and now :

Hilary did not get over 50 in polls. Biden is doing it in freaking July. Still a long ass way to go folks, but hold your breathe that nothing crazy happens and the political environment doesn’t abruptly change because we could all be in for a very fun night in November.

Gary Johnson and Jill Stein gave the Bernie bro’s, never Hilary, and never trump voters an out. Now that these people have to choose a side, they are overwhelmingly choosing Biden.

[troph 24,562]

I know one thing for sure, if Florida can’t get the virus under control soon. Trump will lose that state. 
 
If you asked me in January or February, I would’ve said Trump is the heavy favorite in Florida. 

Not entirely responsive to your point but while Texas is light red I don’t know if COVID will be as big of an issue with Texas voters. I think our self reliance and independence will lead many not to blame him but blame ourselves. Maybe I’m wrong. I would really like to see Texas go blue this time.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

Trump is a fascist dictator in power now so it’s almost a wash. 

[troph 24,562]

looks to me that if FL goes Biden,
Trump could get:
OH, NC, GA, AZ, WI, VA, MN, NH, ME2, NE2
and still lose.  We know this by now, but it's just fun to type out.

How about he lose FL and lose OH, NC, GA, AZ, WI, VA, MN, NH and let’s throw in Texas for good measure and rebuke the hell out of his followers.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

15 minutes ago, troph said:

Not entirely responsive to your point but while Texas is light red I don’t know if COVID will be as big of an issue with Texas voters. I think our self reliance and independence will lead many not to blame him but blame ourselves. Maybe I’m wrong. I would really like to see Texas go blue this time.

Trump won Texas by 9 last time. Moving up 9 points in one election cycle is a stretch.

 I would be ecstatic to see a Texas go blue this time, but I don’t think it’s in the cards. If trump only wins Texas by 3 or 4 that would be pretty good progress.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yeah, I'm sure they are on the up and up. 

I met Jon Hamm at the UT sigma nu house one night at some party they were having. This was post his claw hammer dragging a pledge by the nuts incident. They had been kicked off campus by then, I think, and were about to get kicked out of their house so I guess they decided to throw a party to celebrate. He was all fucked up and looking to fight. No girls in sight at the party and they were all fighting each other. So we left. Months late the house  caught on fire. CSB.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

Maybe Trump’s new strategy of saying bad things about Fox News now every now and then and pimping OANN is to help his followers dismiss fox polling.  

[Guest Lobo]

I really hope some of you condescending liberal assholes remember that Johnson and Mullin got well over 5.0mm votes in 2016.  Make all your fucking wisecracks, but you're gonna need a substantial part of those folks to break for Biden.  Don't fuck it up.  Those people vote, and they vote passionately.  Your bullshit is only gonna offput them. 

[brown water 3,761]

6 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

"RIGGED ELECTION!  BOATER SUPPRESSION!"

Anchors baby!

[BrickHorn 18,191]

6 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

These Florida numbers are why Trump changed his mask messaging this week. Enough of the Florida olds turned on him for essentially saying it's okay if they die. 

The Dems need to hammer Trump’s flip-flop on masks for what it is: an admission that, for four months, he dug in on a position that is so stupid, so reckless, and so dangerous that even Donald Trump had to admit he was wrong about it.

[gmr548 16,510]

I really hope some of you condescending liberal assholes remember that Johnson and Mullin got well over 5.0mm votes in 2016.  Make all your fucking wisecracks, but you're gonna need a substantial part of those folks to break for Biden.  Don't fuck it up.  Those people vote, and they vote passionately.  Your bullshit is only gonna offput them. 

And all five million came from surly

[JimmyJames 12,271]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

I really hope some of you condescending liberal assholes remember that Johnson and Mullin got well over 5.0mm votes in 2016.  Make all your fucking wisecracks, but you're gonna need a substantial part of those folks to break for Biden.  Don't fuck it up.  Those people vote, and they vote passionately.  Your bullshit is only gonna offput them. 

And all five million came from surly

Surly cost us the election in 2016. 

Surly will win it in 2020.

Gentleman, I think this will be our finest hour.

[Herpa Derpa 6,112]

23 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Surly cost us the election in 2016. 

Surly will win it in 2020.

Gentleman, I think this will be our finest hour.

I plan on being drunk longer than an hour.

[Guest Lobo]

25 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Surly cost us the election in 2016. 

Surly will win it in 2020.

Gentleman, I think this will be our finest hour.

Respectfully, sir...I disagree.  I think this will be our most condescending hour.  

[JimmyJames 12,271]

1 minute ago, Herpa Derpa said:

I plan on being drunk longer than an hour.

On election night this November I will be in the exact same place I was on election night in 2016, at a hotel bar on the river walk, getting drunk. 

Time is a flat circle.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Respectfully, sir...I disagree.  I think this will be our most condescending hour.  

Winter is ending my friend. Spring will begin again soon.

[Guest Lobo]

Pipe down, Chauncey Gardner...

[troph 24,562]

2 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Trump won Texas by 9 last time. Moving up 9 points in one election cycle is a stretch.

 I would be ecstatic to see a Texas go blue this time, but I don’t think it’s in the cards. If trump only wins Texas by 3 or 4 that would be pretty good progress.

I agree but I will still hope for it. 

[JimmyJames 12,271]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Pipe down, Chauncey Gardner...

Nice reference.

The truly dark times started in 2003 with the Iraq war. It later was revealed we had obviously lost our way then. Takes time to come back. Usually about 20 years or so.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

Holy crap

the Florida anger at the GOP is real. 

the cook political report just moved Florida from tossup to lean Democrat in their electoral college rankings.

i could be wrong, but I don’t think I’ve seen Florida lean democratic before. It’s ALWAYS in the tossup category.

[Bookman 4,610]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Holy crap

the Florida anger at the GOP is real. 

the cook political report just moved Florida from tossup to lean Democrat in their electoral college rankings.

i could be wrong, but I don’t think I’ve seen Florida lean democratic before. It’s ALWAYS in the tossup category.

Many of them are pissed off at their idiot governor as well.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, DeSantis is doing a DeService to his state.  Thank you, I'll be here all week.  It's gonna be the subject of a long, drawn-out legal battle in November/December though.  

Ideologically, I think Florida still tilts for Trump (or lack of ideology, I should say).  But this time around, I could see it lean every so slightly to Biden simply because the people that actually vote there...Seniors and Hispanics are getting tired of watching their friends die.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,668]

More Nate silver inanities. 
 

that’s a very helpful analogy Nate!   A pollster keeps producing outlier polls for one party.  That’s like, what if this scenario were to happen: what if a pollster kept producing outlier polls for one party! That’s basically what is happening here. 

[The Dog 43,803]

2018 Generic Ballot. How'd that election go again?

Edited July 24, 2020 by The Dog

[Pancho 44,474]

Oh the negative trump tv. ad here in Houston just now paid for by Meidas Touch.

[Storm the Field 5,273]

Yet again, Gravis polls not paid for by OANN are much more Dem-friendly.

MI

Biden +9 (51/42), Peters +10 (49/39) over James in the Senate race.

WI 

Biden +8 (50/42) 

[Larry T. Spider 1,740]

Trump started at -800 to win Texas. He is currently at -230. 

[Larry T. Spider 1,740]

8 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

Obama both won Florida and Ohio twice.  Those are still swing states, and they’re not going to swing for the guy down 9 points nationally.

Trump never reset the map to begin with - Hillary Clinton was actually that unpopular. Compare Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary to Bernie vs. Biden in the primaries.  Hillary lost Michigan to Bernie, and Biden won every single county.  

Now you account for Trump bungling the worst catastrophe in 100 years, the whole country going to shit in a dozen different ways, and Florida being the land of the olds he’s tried to sacrifice, and of course he’s a huge underdog.   Florida should actually be the number one priority for the Democrats in the entire election.

I’m actually starting to come around to your last sentence. I never trust Florida for shit but trump has no path without it. Biden has enough resources to continue to campaign in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin hard while pounding Florida like south Austin’s mom on 3 for 1 night.

My big fear is the governor really working hard to suppress the vote. The blue wall behind it has to be not just strong but impenetrable. Most of those states are near a double digit lead right now. Go after Florida while trump is busy trying to save Texas and Georgia. 

[Brisketexan 104,604]

13 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

I’m actually starting to come around to your last sentence. I never trust Florida for shit but trump has no path without it. Biden has enough resources to continue to campaign in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin hard while pounding Florida like south Austin’s mom on 3 for 1 night.

My big fear is the governor really working hard to suppress the vote. The blue wall behind it has to be not just strong but impenetrable. Most of those states are near a double digit lead right now. Go after Florida while trump is busy trying to save Texas and Georgia. 

In the voter suppression thread, there's a report about a Lebron James group paying off felons' fines and such, clearing the way for them to vote.  That's awesome.  I may throw some bucks that way -- it's another way to overcome the GOP vote suppression machine.

[Storm the Field 5,273]

Republican pollster:

Trump at 37/60 approval. LOL!

[Biff Tannen 45,494]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

In the voter suppression thread, there's a report about a Lebron James group paying off felons' fines and such, clearing the way for them to vote.  That's awesome.  I may throw some bucks that way -- it's another way to overcome the GOP vote suppression machine.

Quoted to make sure it doesn't go under the radar.

[henrygandorf 29,175]

1 hour ago, longhornmatt said:

Obama both won Florida and Ohio twice.  Those are still swing states, and they’re not going to swing for the guy down 9 points nationally.

Trump never reset the map to begin with - Hillary Clinton was actually that unpopular. Compare Bernie Sanders vs. Hillary to Bernie vs. Biden in the primaries.  Hillary lost Michigan to Bernie, and Biden won every single county.  

Now you account for Trump bungling the worst catastrophe in 100 years, the whole country going to shit in a dozen different ways, and Florida being the land of the olds he’s tried to sacrifice, and of course he’s a huge underdog.   Florida should actually be the number one priority for the Democrats in the entire election.

yep.  and by that logic, put north carolina 2nd possibly on that list.  trump can't win without florida.  trump can't win without north caro.

dems need to spend the shit out of north carolina to get that senate seat as well.

[Biff Tannen 45,494]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Quoted to make sure it doesn't go under the radar.

And here's the link.

https://wegotthevote.org/finesandfees/

[Francisco 2.0 32,333]

That's a shame.

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/07/trump-campaign-angry-that-cell-carriers-blocked-spammy-texts-to-voters/

 

Quote

President Trump's re-election campaign has accused Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile of "suppression of political speech" over the carriers' blocking of spam texts sent by the campaign.

The fight was described Wednesday in an in-depth article by Business Insider and other reports. "The Trump campaign has been battling this month with the biggest US cellphone carriers over an effort to blast millions of cell users with texts meant to coax them to vote or donate," Business Insider wrote. "President Donald Trump's adviser and son-in-law, Jared Kushner, didn't appreciate it when AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile blocked mass campaign texts to voters. He called the companies to complain, setting off the legal wrangling."

 

Quote

When contacted by Ars, a Trump campaign spokesperson said that "any effort by the carriers to restrict the campaign from contacting its supporters is suppression of political speech. Plain and simple." The Trump campaign statement also said it "stands by the compliance of its texting programs" with the US Telephone Consumer Protection Act (TCPA) and Federal Communications Commission guidelines.

We asked the Trump campaign to explain exactly why the texts are legal and shouldn't have been blocked but did not get a response. The Trump campaign also did not answer our questions about how many people it tried to send the texts to and about whether the texts were unsolicited or sent to people who had signed up for campaign communications.

 

Spoiler

We also asked both the Trump campaign and carriers if they've come to any agreement on how to handle texts for the rest of this year's presidential campaign but did not get any answers.

Business Insider wrote that "the showdown got serious at the start of July when Trump's team sent a blast of texts to people who hadn't signed up for them," and "a third-party firm hired to screen such messages for the major cellphone companies blocked the texts." The article said that campaign lawyers and the carriers "are still fighting over what kinds of messages the campaign is allowed to send and what the companies have the power to stop."

Politico wrote about the dispute on Monday. "People familiar with the chain of events said Verizon, T-Mobile and AT&T flagged potential regulatory problems with the peer-to-peer messaging operation, which differs from robo-texting in that texts are sent individually, as opposed to a mass blast," Politico wrote. "But within Trump's orbit, the episode has further fueled suspicions that big tech companies are looking to influence the election."

One Trump-campaign text reportedly sent this week said, "Hi it's Pres. Trump. I need your help ASAP to FIGHT BACK against the radical left & take back my majority. Take a stand NOW." Trump-campaign texts reviewed by Business Insider did not include an option to unsubscribe, the news outlet's article said.

Carriers "viewed the texts as a possible violation of federal anti-robocall laws and Federal Communications Commission rules that come with hefty fines," Business Insider reported, citing information provided by "two Republicans familiar with the effort."

Trump "campaign operatives" contend that its texting "exists in a legal gray area that allows campaigns to blast cellphone users if the messages are sent manually," Business Insider also wrote. TCPA restrictions apply to messages sent with an "automatic telephone dialing system."

The FCC says its rules "ban text messages sent to a mobile phone using an autodialer unless you previously gave consent to receive the message or the message is sent for emergency purposes," and that customers "should be able to opt out of receiving texts."

Business Insider said the Trump campaign also argues that a recent FCC ruling "loosened the rules on what counted as spam." That FCC order, which is being challenged by the National Consumer Law Center and other consumer-advocacy groups, says the following:

By this Declaratory Ruling, we clarify that the fact that a calling platform or other equipment is used to make calls or send texts to a large volume of telephone numbers is not probative of whether that equipment constitutes an autodialer under the TCPA. Instead, we make clear that if a calling platform is not capable of originating a call or sending a text without a person actively and affirmatively manually dialing each one, that platform is not an autodialer and calls or texts made using it are not subject to the TCPA's restrictions on calls and texts to wireless phones. We further confirm that, even when a party uses an autodialer to send a message, it may still avoid TCPA liability by obtaining the recipient's prior express consent.

We asked the FCC if it is investigating whether the Trump-campaign texts violated robotext and spam rules, and will update this article if we get a response.

Carriers are remaining silent publicly on the dispute with Trump's campaign. When contacted by Ars, Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile all declined to give statements or answer our questions. T-Mobile told Ars there has been "inaccurate reporting" on this topic but did not say what has been inaccurately reported. Verizon and AT&T referred our questions to the CTIA mobile-industry lobby group, but CTIA declined to answer our questions about the Trump texts.

CTIA did, however, provide a general statement saying, "We expect all senders—whether airlines, schools, banks or campaigns—to include clear opt-out language and gain prior consent before sending a text. These simple steps help protect consumers from spam, and maintain text messaging as a trusted medium for everyone."

The third-party firm that blocked the texts on behalf of the carriers is Zipwhip, according to a Republican source quoted by Business Insider. Zipwhip told Ars that it is "not able to comment on our contracts, customers or their texting traffic."

"Zipwhip's compliance process requires all texting traffic to follow industry-standard guidelines, including where appropriate, a requirement to obtain consent from the message recipient," the company told Ars. "The goal of the industry standard is to protect consumers from receiving unwanted messages and spam and maintain trust in texting as a communications medium."

CTIA last year issued a set of "Messaging Principles and Best Practices" to "clarify that organizations should obtain opt-in consent before sending text messages to consumers."

Last week, CTIA posted a blog specifically about spam texts from political campaigns. "Text messaging can be a very powerful and effective way to organize, inform and engage voters, but only if used the right way," CTIA wrote. "Billions of texts will be sent from political campaigns of both parties, and we are increasingly hearing from customers that they are getting texts they didn't ask to receive."

Text senders should be "communicating only with consumers who have opted in, telling consumers how to opt out—by replying 'STOP,' for example—honoring those opt-out requests, and establishing clear privacy and security policies and practices," CTIA said.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,049]

1 hour ago, Larry T. Spider said:

My big fear is the governor really working hard to suppress the vote. The blue wall behind it has to be not just strong but impenetrable. Most of those states are near a double digit lead right now. Go after Florida while trump is busy trying to save Texas and Georgia. 

Also the reason IMO that the little green camo men from DHS are heading to MIlwaukee. Voters were aggressively out to vote despite the GOP, courts, and officials throwing everything at them during a pandemic.

[Brisketexan 104,604]

2 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Also the reason IMO that the little green camo men from DHS are heading to MIlwaukee. Voters were aggressively out to vote despite the GOP, courts, and officials throwing everything at them during a pandemic.

And that's why the Dems need to be in full "send lawyers, guns, and money" mode.  We need to have emergency TROs ready to go to enjoin all of the regime's planned voter intimidation and interference activities from now till election day.

[StassneyHorn 6,538]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

In the voter suppression thread, there's a report about a Lebron James group paying off felons' fines and such, clearing the way for them to vote.  That's awesome.  I may throw some bucks that way -- it's another way to overcome the GOP vote suppression machine.

Haven’t looked yet, and I’ve been drinking at the pool, but LeBron James movement on this front along with getting Atlanta, Milwaukee, Detroit, and now Charlotte to open up their arenas mega voting sites is going to do more to improve the voting voting experience and have a positive effect more than will get credit for. It’s a “Where is Ja?” moment that I love seeing play out

[SubliminalHorn 6,674]

16 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

And here's the link.

https://wegotthevote.org/finesandfees/

Thank you. Just donated

[NameAlreadyInUse 5,106]

20 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

And here's the link.

https://wegotthevote.org/finesandfees/

This is really cool, thanks for sharing.  donating.

[The Dog 43,803]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Republican pollster:

Trump at 37/60 approval. LOL!

They've had Biden ahead of Trump by ~10 points all year long so I'd consider them an outlier. It's a Republican pollster that isn't included in the RCP average (or at least hasn't to date). So keep that in mind. 

His twitter is a fun read for poll nerds.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

7 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

More Nate silver inanities. 
 

that’s a very helpful analogy Nate!   A pollster keeps producing outlier polls for one party.  That’s like, what if this scenario were to happen: what if a pollster kept producing outlier polls for one party! That’s basically what is happening here. 

 

Why would you focus on Nate when its obvious Rasmussen is the fraud here? He didn’t explain their fraud to your liking?