2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Storm the Field 5360]

Lotta polls out today:

CNN/SSRS 

MI: Biden +12 (52/40)

AZ: Biden +4 (49/45)

FL: Biden +5 (51/46)

AZ Senate: Kelly +7 (50/43)

MI Senate: Peters+16 (54/38)

NBC/Marist

AZ: Biden +5 (50/45)

AZ Senate: Kelly +12 (53/41)

CBS/YouGov

USA: Biden +10 (51/41)

MI: Biden +6 (48/42)

OH: Trump +1 (46/45)

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

2 hours ago, Revolution512 said:

Joe isn’t a problem solver, he’s never been the answer to anything in his life. 

I have a good feeling he isn’t going to surround himself with a bunch of unqualified dumbasses. Matter of fact, I think he will put together a damn good cabinet.  They will be the problem solvers. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

1 hour ago, Revolution512 said:

It’s pretty clear what I’m saying, a good choice to beat Trump and a good presidential candidate are two vastly different things. That’s where I feel we are.....again. 
 

I don’t know that anyone here had Joe as their first choice but they’ll back the fuck out of him now. Does that in any way sound similar to the right in the last election?

 

Biden was probably my third choice in the primary. The difference between now and then is I know for a fact any of those three would be a good President. The first two would be better than Biden, but he will just fine in his own right. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

1 hour ago, RPM said:

Meanwhile...

Putin says Navy to get hypersonic nuclear weapons

Russia flexes 'growing power' of its Navy with huge parade involving 200 warships in St Petersburg as Vladimir Putin promises 40 new vessels equipped with hypersonic weapons

Trump boat parade?

[LCHorn 2749]

6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I have a good feeling he isn’t going to surround himself with a bunch of unqualified dumbasses. Matter of fact, I think he will put together a damn good cabinet.  They will be the problem solvers. 

No shit, Revolution’s whole “both sides” argument seems incredibly ignorant (sorry to be impolite here).  
 

Regardless of how you feel about Biden’s politics, just a simple return to basic management competence and hiring department heads that aren’t obvious sycophants is a huge improvement.  Trump  couldn’t keep a Chik-Fil-A out of bankruptcy.  

[JimmyJames 12271]

5 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

No shit, Revolution’s whole “both sides” argument seems incredibly ignorant (sorry to be impolite here).  
 

Regardless of how you feel about Biden’s politics, just a simple return to basic management competence and hiring department heads that aren’t obvious sycophants is a huge improvement.  Trump  couldn’t keep a Chik-Fil-A out of bankruptcy.  

This is a good point. Trump is probably the only person on the planet who could manage to bankrupt a Chik Fil A franchise. He would probably hire a bunch of illegals to work at it, “forget” to pay them because they’re illegal so they eventually don’t show up, then blame his manager for the super long lines where nobody could get any chicken for hours because all the employees quit, leading it to eventually get shut down.

Trump Chik Fil A. 
 

Trump America. 

[Storm the Field 5360]

One thing I've noticed, undecideds and third party vote just aren't there in meaningful numbers this year.  Saw a tweet earlier that state polls taking this July on average are showing just 7.7% undecided/other compared to 17.5% in July 2016. To illustrate, check out the polling averages from then and now.

7/26/16 

Clinton 40, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 3

7/26/20

Biden 50, Trump 41

Not exactly a groundbreaking thought here, but there's a whole damn world of difference between being +5 in a state at 45/40 and +5 at 51/46.

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

Undecideds were a larger group in 2016 because there was no incumbent in the race. 

[Bevo14 8468]

Trump can count to potato, has spent an entire year golfing, incites violence and racism, and has tried his damndest to spread coronavirus to every corner of this country, allowed bounties on American troops, and commits crimes at a record-breaking speed. Obviously Hillary was no better!!! And Biden is the same!!!!

 

The only people  spinning this logic voted for Trump in 2016 and/or will vote for him this year.

Edited July 26, 2020 by Bevo14

[Superhero 8990]

4 hours ago, Bojack said:

There's a choice on the ballot but it don't seem like no choice at all.

To Revolution 512, what in god's holy name are you blathering about?  Joe Biden not a good choice?  He's the only choice that can rid us of the worst president we've ever had.  Biden was my last or close to last choice for the nominee but it's never been more clear to me who's the better presidential candidate in a general election.  

A combo of Buttigieg and Warren. Both intellectuals who really had proactive good ideas on how to fix the country.

Biden was 3, but he’s the hero we need, not the one we deserve. 

[Mapache 1117]

 

[SubliminalHorn 6995]

12 minutes ago, Mapache said:

 

As long as Biden doesn’t want to ride a tank around. Dotard is more likely to try something like that. 

[Red Five 41595]

No incumbent in that race. Totally different political landscape back then too. Back when "pay no attention to the polls until Labor Day" was a thing. Now, you've got over half the country who fucking hate the incumbent and wouldn't vote for him under any circumstances. 

[Guest Lobo]

That really was the biggest post-convention bounce I've ever seen in my memory-making lifetime.  I remember we talked about that in Social Studies/Civics class for a whole week...as popular as Reagan/Bush had been, Dukakis surged ahead and appeared headed to a tight EC win.  Instead Bush took 40 states, enjoyed an 8% delta in popular vote, and destroyed Dukakis in the EC by a margin of 426-111.  The '88 convention is now better remembered for launching the political careers of Bill Clinton and Ann Richards, with Dukakis still a footnote in history of how to really tank a campaign in the final weeks.  

Trump is going to close the gap in the next four weeks.  Then he'll have a batshit crazy four weeks from about late August to late September where Biden can put his foot on his throat.  He'll then announce the big plans to fix everything and keep us from descending into Biden's vision for America, and if we stick with him...he'll show it to us in the Winter.  October will actually be fairly uneventful.  No big reveals, no scandals, just attack ads and debates...usual shit.  Just the two of them saying their basic message "Even though it's mostly my fault...vote for me and I'll make 2021 Great." & "That's why they called me in America, I'm the Cleaner."  The two of them have their camps pretty much set, October will just be a battle for that last 5% that's probably gonna get off their ass and go vote (they registered but sat out last time because the options sucked, or broke for Johnson/Mullin/Stein which totaled several million BTW).  I actually think both candidates will run relatively safe, generic, and even somewhat positive campaigns in October as a final twist in the plot of 2020.  

October, for the Biden campaign, should be wholly devoted to voter turnout and preempting voter suppression in a few states.  That's it, that's where all the money should go.  More effective than attack ads, leave that to the 3 disgruntled conservative groups.  

Also good time to ask---where the fuck is Bloomberg in all this?  Guy has a chance to make a real difference and he's been dead silent since he dropped out.  I mean, attack ads seem to be running fine without his money.  But I mean, he could be throwing a lot of political influence and cash at efforts in some states to lawyer up, and get ready for Trump's vote bullshit in some of these places.  

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

even somewhat positive campaigns in October as a final twist in the plot of 2020.  

 

[SubliminalHorn 6995]

lol Bloomberg actually following through with spending his own money?

[Storm the Field 5360]

1 hour ago, Mapache said:

 

 

[The Dog 44771]

51 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

 

That Dukakis "lead" was a single poll taken during and immediately after the Democratic convention. 

What that table doesn't show is that Bush took over the lead in August immediately after the Republican convention. Dukakis' lead was very short lived. 

As a side note, I think that's why Trump wanted to have an in person convention so badly. He probably thought that by having a big convention he could pull the same reversal that Bush did in '88. 

[Chad Fuck 18090]

Meanwhile...
Putin says Navy to get hypersonic nuclear weapons
Russia flexes 'growing power' of its Navy with huge parade involving 200 warships in St Petersburg as Vladimir Putin promises 40 new vessels equipped with hypersonic weapons

Wake me up when their shitty ships stop catching in fire in the middle of the English Channel or falling to the bottom of the Barents Sea.

At least ours catch on fire because they’re under refit, not because they suck.

[gmr548 16681]

8 hours ago, Queen Bitch said:

People continue to act as if Biden didn’t appear in nearly a dozen live debates over the past year or so and it absolutely boggles my mind. 

if you’re worried about how he’s going to do in a debate, you have plenty of recent footage to comb through. Have at it.

People that act as if debates matter are stupid.

[gmr548 16681]

3 hours ago, The Dog said:

That Dukakis "lead" was a single poll taken during and immediately after the Democratic convention. 

What that table doesn't show is that Bush took over the lead in August immediately after the Republican convention. Dukakis' lead was very short lived. 

As a side note, I think that's why Trump wanted to have an in person convention so badly. He probably thought that by having a big convention he could pull the same reversal that Bush did in '88. 

Donald Trump does not know who ran for President in 1988.

[Storm the Field 5360]

4 hours ago, The Dog said:

That Dukakis "lead" was a single poll taken during and immediately after the Democratic convention. 

What that table doesn't show is that Bush took over the lead in August immediately after the Republican convention. Dukakis' lead was very short lived. 

As a side note, I think that's why Trump wanted to have an in person convention so badly. He probably thought that by having a big convention he could pull the same reversal that Bush did in '88. 

Yeah, that's kinda the whole point of the tweet. Dukakis' lead was ephemeral at best. He was behind in the spring and early summer, "pulled ahead" during the summer and then fell off a cliff. Biden has been consistently ahead since before the primary race even began in earnest. 

Also, polling in 1988 is worlds apart from today. You almost get more polls in any given week than used to occur during the course of an entire election back then. 

[WBT 20884]

8 hours ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Undecideds were a larger group in 2016 because there was no incumbent in the race. 

I think it was more that those were the two most disliked presidential candidates ever.  Biden isn't nearly as disliked. 

People didn't make a choice until they had to and many went 3rd party.  In the previous two no incumbent elections, Bush-Gore combined for 96.3% of the popular vote and Obama-McCain for 98.6%.  Trump-Clinton was only 94.3%.

 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by WBT

[Bateshorn 9989]

18 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think it was more that those were the two most disliked presidential candidates ever.  Biden isn't nearly as disliked. 

People didn't make a choice until they had to and many went 3rd party.  In the previous two no incumbent elections, Bush-Gore combined for 96.3% of the popular vote and Obama-McCain for 98.6%.  Trump-Clinton was only 94.3%.

 

 

They either went 3rd party or broke towards trump by a 2-1 margin.  The combination of the Comey letter and Bannon taking away trumps phone the last week pushed a huge pile of undecideds voters to go “I hate Hilary, How bad could Trump honestly be? YOLO!” 
 

Many of those voters now despise Trump and have generally good, if somewhat medium, feelings for Biden.

[Storm the Field 5360]

18 minutes ago, WBT said:

I think it was more that those were the two most disliked presidential candidates ever.  Biden isn't nearly as disliked. 

People didn't make a choice until they had to and many went 3rd party.  In the previous two no incumbent elections, Bush-Gore combined for 96.3% of the popular vote and Obama-McCain for 98.6%.  Trump-Clinton was only 94.3%.

And with 2 majority unfavorable main candidates, there was actual attention paid to the third party also-rans. Gary Johnson was on TV all the time and was frequently polling at 7 or 8%. Even Jill Stein was getting 3-4%. 

Pop quiz, without googling it, name this year's third party candidates. Super bonus points if you could actually pick one out of a lineup.

[Voldemort86 2259]

15 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

And with 2 majority unfavorable main candidates, there was actual attention paid to the third party also-rans. Gary Johnson was on TV all the time and was frequently polling at 7 or 8%. Even Jill Stein was getting 3-4%. 

Pop quiz, without googling it, name this year's third party candidates. Super bonus points if you could actually pick one out of a lineup.

It’s a good thing for Biden that the 3rd party candidates are so irrelevant. This forces trump to get over 50% of the vote to win states. No more plurality wins like in 2016.

 

good luck schmuck. He hasn’t grown his voter base since 2016. If anything, it has shrunk.

[Mdhorn 6153]

55 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Yeah, that's kinda the whole point of the tweet. Dukakis' lead was ephemeral at best. He was behind in the spring and early summer, "pulled ahead" during the summer and then fell off a cliff. Biden has been consistently ahead since before the primary race even began in earnest. 

Also, polling in 1988 is worlds apart from today. You almost get more polls in any given week than used to occur during the course of an entire election back then. 

Politics before and after the internet aren’t the same.  Everything is immediate and reaches a broader audience, including disinformation. 

[Bevo14 8468]

8 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

It’s a good thing for the world that the 3rd party candidates are so irrelevant. This forces trump to get over 50% of the vote to win states. No more plurality wins like in 2016.

 

good luck schmuck. He hasn’t grown his voter base since 2016. If anything, it has shrunk.

fify

[Irwin F Fletcher 3555]

And with 2 majority unfavorable main candidates, there was actual attention paid to the third party also-rans. Gary Johnson was on TV all the time and was frequently polling at 7 or 8%. Even Jill Stein was getting 3-4%. 
Pop quiz, without googling it, name this year's third party candidates. Super bonus points if you could actually pick one out of a lineup.

Kanye West. What do I win?



Though he is taking the more unconventional route of write in votes.

[6th Street 6655]

Once Bush went after Dukakis with that Willie Horton ad, it was all over.

[Gatorubet 30631]

9 hours ago, Mapache said:

 

Yes, I remember the pandemic that year.  Oh wait!

[Bama Chick 28596]

And with 2 majority unfavorable main candidates, there was actual attention paid to the third party also-rans. Gary Johnson was on TV all the time and was frequently polling at 7 or 8%. Even Jill Stein was getting 3-4%. 
Pop quiz, without googling it, name this year's third party candidates. Super bonus points if you could actually pick one out of a lineup.

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Trump has offended people's sensibilities on a daily basis for the last 4 years , and one result is Biden is practically infallible in the eyes of most voters. There won't be an October surprise that moves the polling needle very much. That'd be too late for him anyways. Early/mail-in voting starts in September in some states. 

Trump has gotten away with everything so far, but it will finally catch up with him at the polls. 

 

 

[Goredho 17627]

 

 

17 hours ago, Revolution512 said:

I don’t know that anyone here had Joe as their first choice but they’ll back the fuck out of him now. Does that in any way sound similar to the right in the last election?

 

Your worst meme-fueled vision of a President Clinton or Biden would be nowhere near as disastrous to the nation as Trump’s real presidency has proven to be.

 

[Pancho 46054]

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19407]

10 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Pop quiz, without googling it, name this year's third party candidates. Super bonus points if you could actually pick one out of a lineup.

Easy

[Aqua Buddha 14782]

Wow.  He's had meetings about vaccines.  Impressive.

[Hiphopopotamos 21158]

18 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Why in the hell would Haley attach herself to that sinking ship?  She'd be much better off letting Trump get annihilated in 2020 and then selling herself as the leader of a 'New Republican' party in 2024 when she'd be going up against either an 82 year old Biden (or more likely) Biden's VP.

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/biden-notches-lead-north-carolina-382259
 

North Carolina poll.

seems like Biden is lucky to be sharing the ballot with Cooper. Could we see Kelly help pull Biden over the line in Arizona and Cooper help Biden in North Carolina?
 

Biden up by 7 

Cunningham up by 9

Cooper up by 20

[Pancho 46054]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Why in the hell would Haley attach herself to that sinking ship?  She'd be much better off letting Trump get annihilated in 2020 and then selling herself as the leader of a 'New Republican' party in 2024 when she'd be going up against either an 82 year old Biden (or more likely) Biden's VP.

[gmr548 16681]

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/biden-notches-lead-north-carolina-382259
 
North Carolina poll.
seems like Biden is lucky to be sharing the ballot with Cooper. Could we see Kelly help pull Biden over the line in Arizona and Cooper help Biden in North Carolina?
 
Biden up by 7 
Cunningham up by 9
Cooper up by 20

I've been thinking for a while that Cooper is going to get both Biden and Cunningham over the line. Pretty crazy how downright noncompetitive that governor's race is.

[The Dog 44771]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Why in the hell would Haley attach herself to that sinking ship?  She'd be much better off letting Trump get annihilated in 2020 and then selling herself as the leader of a 'New Republican' party in 2024 when she'd be going up against either an 82 year old Biden (or more likely) Biden's VP.

I'm with you - joining what appears to be a sinking ship makes no sense for Haley. 

As I've said before, dumping Pence is a big risk for Trump. The evangelicals were on board because of him. Sure there are some that will support him still, but Pence is popular with them and has been nothing but loyal to Trump.

It makes little sense but then again nothing he's done the last 6 months has made much sense either, so dumping Pence would be on brand I guess....

[Red Five 41595]

It would be a total hail mary. Stay the course and lose by 200 EVs. 

Normally I don't think you'd ever turn down an opportunity to be added to the ticket, but I think this may be the exception for Haley. She'd be Palin-ing her reputation over a couple of months. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Haley was vocal with some ass kissing of Trump lately though.  It was a little weird.

[lemonlime 5503]

1 hour ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Why in the hell would Haley attach herself to that sinking ship?  She'd be much better off letting Trump get annihilated in 2020 and then selling herself as the leader of a 'New Republican' party in 2024 when she'd be going up against either an 82 year old Biden (or more likely) Biden's VP.

Because this is her one shot.  If trump loses, and there are actual investigations into all the illegality that's happened over the last 3 1/2 years, no one who was associated with this administration, including Haley, will ever be considered for any position in government ever again.  

[Hank Kingsley 21598]

Haley is a joke. And her political future is fucked after Trump loses. 

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

9 minutes ago, Red Five said:

It would be a total hail mary. Stay the course and lose by 200 EVs. 

Normally I don't think you'd ever turn down an opportunity to be added to the ticket, but I think this may be the exception for Haley. She'd be Palin-ing her reputation over a couple of months. 

The VP pick doesn’t matter much to be honest. People are voting for the president, not the VP.

its important, but it’s never the game changer people make it out to be. Haley couldn’t save trump if he was in that bad of shape.

[6th Street 6655]

19 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I'm with you - joining what appears to be a sinking ship makes no sense for Haley. 

As I've said before, dumping Pence is a big risk for Trump. The evangelicals were on board because of him. Sure there are some that will support him still, but Pence is popular with them and has been nothing but loyal to Trump.

It makes little sense but then again nothing he's done the last 6 months has made much sense either, so dumping Pence would be on brand I guess....

Dumping his VP and self appointed head of the coronavirus task force less than 3 months before the election. Yeah that's going to be well received. 

[Voldemort86 2259]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Haley is a joke. And her political future is fucked after Trump loses. 

 

I’ve always thought she was over rated myself. I mean yeah....... she helped South Carolina take the confederate flag down finally after some kid went in a church to shoot up some black people. Big freaking deal. It was a no brainer to side with the black people and against Dylan roof. 

[4th&Five 41904]

4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

The VP pick doesn’t matter much to be honest. People are voting for the president, not the VP.

its important, but it’s never the game changer people make it out to be. Haley couldn’t save trump if he was in that bad of shape.