2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[SydneyCarton 48165]

4 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

I’ve always thought she was over rated myself. I mean yeah....... she helped South Carolina take the confederate flag down finally after some kid went in a church to shoot up some black people. Big freaking deal. It was a no brainer to side with the black people and against Dylan roof. 

If the past 4 years, fuck the past 12, has shown us anything it is that using the term No Brainer should be completely verboten. It’s antiquated and no longer applicable in today’s society. Nothing can be taken for granted. 

[Bruh Man 3160]

 

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/27/biden-notches-lead-north-carolina-382259
 

North Carolina poll.

seems like Biden is lucky to be sharing the ballot with Cooper. Could we see Kelly help pull Biden over the line in Arizona and Cooper help Biden in North Carolina?
 

Biden up by 7 

Cunningham up by 9

Cooper up by 20

I don't trust Marist polls. They don't weigh by education.

[Voldemort86 2259]

20 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

McCain was already screwed anyway.

[bluto 4942]

I'm with you - joining what appears to be a sinking ship makes no sense for Haley. 
As I've said before, dumping Pence is a big risk for Trump. The evangelicals were on board because of him. Sure there are some that will support him still, but Pence is popular with them and has been nothing but loyal to Trump.
It makes little sense but then again nothing he's done the last 6 months has made much sense either, so dumping Pence would be on brand I guess....

Evangelicals don’t give 2 shits about Pence in regard to their support of trump. All trump has to do is make some shit up and throw dirt on pence.

[4th&Five 41586]

 

[Pig Bellmont 8736]

6 hours ago, lemonlime said:

Because this is her one shot.  If trump loses, and there are actual investigations into all the illegality that's happened over the last 3 1/2 years, no one who was associated with this administration, including Haley, will ever be considered for any position in government ever again.  

[MillerEP 30495]

[The Dog 44138]

6 hours ago, bluto said:

Evangelicals don’t give 2 shits about Pence in regard to their support of trump. All trump has to do is make some shit up and throw dirt on pence.

I agree it won't hurt much, but can he really afford to lose any support amongst his base? It will cause some to stay home (they won't vote for Biden) and that's support he cannot afford to lose right now. 

[Patrick Bateman 3926]

44 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

That's after the 2nd debate location at the University of Michigan pulled out last month.  Donny has just the place to step in...... Trump Tower in Chicago!

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33898]

oh, look who WAS invited to John Lewis' funeral:

 

[Sbbruin 21867]

9 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Why in the hell would Haley attach herself to that sinking ship?  She'd be much better off letting Trump get annihilated in 2020 and then selling herself as the leader of a 'New Republican' party in 2024 when she'd be going up against either an 82 year old Biden (or more likely) Biden's VP.

There is going to be a whole host of casualties in the GOP who will never, ever get the stink of their Trump bootlicking off of them for the rest of their lives.

[Brisketexan 105311]

There is going to be a whole host of casualties in the GOP who will never, ever get the stink of their Trump bootlicking off of them for the rest of their lives.

Damn right they won’t, not if I have anything to say about it. They should wear a scarlet T for the rest of their shitty, cowardly lives.

[Horndog 2228]

23 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

And with 2 majority unfavorable main candidates, there was actual attention paid to the third party also-rans. Gary Johnson was on TV all the time and was frequently polling at 7 or 8%. Even Jill Stein was getting 3-4%. 

Pop quiz, without googling it, name this year's third party candidates. Super bonus points if you could actually pick one out of a lineup.

Which gave us the great moment "And what is Aleppo?"

[Hiphopopotamos 20882]

 

[The Dog 44138]

https://morningconsult.com/form/july-presidential-battleground-state-polling/

these were referred to in the Trump thread but it belongs here IMHO.

Biden has leads outside of the MOE and 50% or better in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Likely voter poll(s) but they don't have their crosstabs published. Gotta pay for them. Fuckers.

[Aqua Buddha 14608]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Don't believe it

[Superhero 8836]

Take that poll and

Come back when it's Biden 51%.

[4th&Five 41586]

 

[Patrick Bateman 3926]

Dem Poll so take with a grain of salt.

National Polls.

 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Patrick Bateman

[SydneyCarton 48165]

Not sure who else is watching Biden in his press conference, but so far he's been pretty fucking impressive. I realize it's such a low bar considering what we're used to, but the's given thoughtful, reasonable answers to everything. He's showing courtesy and respect to reporters. He's being clear and concise and outlying some of his policy. If this is the guy who shows up to a debate in regards to answering questions and doesn't get flustered, this is promising. 

[Pig Bellmont 8736]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not sure who else is watching Biden in his press conference, but so far he's been pretty fucking impressive. I realize it's such a low bar considering what we're used to, but the's given thoughtful, reasonable answers to everything. He's showing courtesy and respect to reporters. He's being clear and concise and outlying some of his policy. If this is the guy who shows up to a debate in regards to answering questions and doesn't get flustered, this is promising. 

This is what I keep saying. Trying to paint him as too senile will backfire bigly 

[Rougarou 594]

57 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

This is an amazing tweet. You love to see it!

[StassneyHorn 6635]

I really think the “floundering” Joe Biden commentary is due to 10 people yelling at once on stage and no direction.

 The man ran for President in 88 08 and 20 when there’s numerous people on stage and has been mostly unimpressive. When it has been 1 on 1 with him, he’s done pretty well from what I can remember (08 with Palin and 12 with Ryan). By putting the bar so low, if he can just remember peoples name it’s going to be characterized as a win.

[mchookem 16377]

bottom line, he absolutely is NOT senile/does not have dementia/isn't losing his cognitive ability. 

he's old. he's slower. that's it. 

that narrative is so dumb...AND THAT'S NOT EVEN COMPARING HIM WITH THE DEMENTED EVIL POS IN THE WHITE HOUSE. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

I will never understand the strategy behind dotard trying to say Joe Biden is senile. He’s just pointing out what a senile piece of narcissist shit he in fact is. Not a winning strategy.

[Herpa Derpa 6130]

18 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I will never understand the strategy behind dotard trying to say Joe Biden is senile. He’s just pointing out what a senile piece of narcissist shit he in fact is. Not a winning strategy.

Remind me when Trump has ever had a long-term winning strategy in any of his endeavors. He always fails in the end.

[Hank Scorpio 17730]

I mean, he is the president. 

[G650 14277]

8 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I mean, he is the president. 

And he is failing pretty hard at it.

[Bullneck 19206]

37 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I will never understand the strategy behind dotard trying to say Joe Biden is senile. He’s just pointing out what a senile piece of narcissist shit he in fact is. Not a winning strategy.

Projecting is what Trump does.  So, that's his strategy.

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

Remind me when Trump has ever had a long-term winning strategy in any of his endeavors. He always fails in the end.

Well he did have that run of walking up and grabbing women by the pussy. Though as I type this I definitely don't call that a winning strategy, but I'm assuming that's how he met each of his three wives.


I'll keep brainstorming.

[henrygandorf 29194]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

And he is failing pretty hard at it.

he's a really good president, you just don't like his personality.

[gmr548 16612]

I will never understand the strategy behind dotard trying to say Joe Biden is senile. He’s just pointing out what a senile piece of narcissist shit he in fact is. Not a winning strategy.

It's much less self owning than "make America great again" coming from an incumbent.

[Macanudo 13010]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

he's a really good president, you just don't like his personality.

 A really, really good President who's personality is very, very good?

[HenryJames 66168]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

18 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

Y'all remember in 08 when McCain gave up on Michigan and lost it bigly?

[Herpa Derpa 6130]

14 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I mean, he is the president. 

The #1 goal of a first-term President is re-election.  We'll see how it turns out.

[Texaspython 231]

14 hours ago, Hank Scorpio said:

I mean, he is the president. 

That’s true but it fits the pattern of his life. Arrogantly con his way into something he doesn’t understand, completely fuck it up, then move onto the next con.

[SydneyCarton 48165]

8 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

That’s true but it fits the pattern of his life. Arrogantly con his way into something he doesn’t understand, completely fuck it up, then move onto the next con.

100% chance that Donald Trump feels his life has been very successful. Now go argue with an idiot about it and see where you end up. 

[bolverk 29717]

12 hours ago, Macanudo said:

 A really, really good President who's personality is very, very good?

*whose

[Storm the Field 5301]

Rasmussen doing their weekly "whoa, throttle it back a bit" move.

After having Trump at 49% approval and a dead heat in the horse race (Biden +2) last Wednesday, they've moderated to 45% and Biden +6 today.

[Brandywine 1316]

4 hours ago, Herpa Derpa said:

The #1 goal of a first-term President is re-election.  We'll see how it turns out.

Well that's been his #1 because he doesn't know how to be a President. 

[Wulaw Horn 19149]

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Rasmussen doing their weekly "whoa, throttle it back a bit" move.

After having Trump at 49% approval and a dead heat in the horse race (Biden +2) last Wednesday, they've moderated to 45% and Biden +6 today.

If I had to bet on where the race ends up that would be my bet right now. That being said I could see it being 13 points before I could imagine Trump winning. 
that poll doesn’t seem egregious to me. 

[Francisco 2.0 32426]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-carolina-deluge-of-absentee-ballot-requests-shows-why-trumps-terrified-of-mail-in-voting?ref=home?ref=home

 

Quote

We are in the midst of a massive transition to mail-in voting, one that was accelerated by the coronavirus. In the bellwether state of North Carolina, where Republicans will hold part of this year’s pandemic-disrupted convention, requests for absentee ballots have soared among registered Democrats from 6,868 in 2016 to 46,856 in 2020 while registered Republicans are seeing a modest jump from 6,736 in 2016 to 9,229 in 2020. 

Quote

Unaffiliated voters, who don’t align with either major political party, have also requested an unprecedented number of absentee ballots, leaping from 4,546 in 2016 to 30,912 in 2020. So from roughly even starting numbers in 2016, Democratic and Unaffiliated voters’ requests are both up about 580 percent, while Republicans are up just 37 percent.

 

Quote

“For the state, this is really unheard of,” says Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba college in Salisbury, North Carolina. “Typically, in a presidential year, 5 percent of the vote total is mail-in, and usually Republicans tend to dominate, and it turns into votes. It’s very much a Republican advantage while early voting is slightly more Democratic.” 

 

Spoiler

While Democrats have ramped up voter registration, this grassroots surge appears to have been spurred by the virus and widespread discontent over President Trump’s failure to curb its spread rather than party efforts. 

With Trump regularly maligning mail-in voting, the state GOP has tried to insulate local elected officials from his ire. A recent mailing to registered Republicans features Trump tweeting, “Absentee Ballots are fine because you have to go through a precise process to get your voting privilege," while blocking out the second half of the tweet where he says, “Not so with Mail-ins. Rigged Election!!! 20% fraudulent ballots?” 

North Carolina allows any voter to request a mail-in absentee ballot, with the state Board of Election noting that “No special circumstance or reason is needed” for doing so. In the last two presidential elections, 2012 and 2016, over half of mail-in ballots were from registered Republicans, says Bitzer, who founded the Old North State Politics blog, which is tracking the number of absentee ballot requests.  He told the Daily Beast, “The surge of unaffiliated voters is something very new, but just because they’re unaffiliated doesn’t mean they’re not partisan. They just don’t like the (party) label, which is true of younger voters.”   

North Carolina sends out mail-in ballots on Sept. 4 to those who requested them. Early voting begins Oct. 15, three weeks before the election. “This is all kind of uncharted territory for North Carolina,” Bitzer says. “Is this voter intensity among Democrats who have their minds made up and don’t care what happens in October and November?  Or is it another group of voters worried about COVID who wanted the security of public health safety?” 

Also, how quickly will they return their mail-in ballot? Will they wait until the last minute, testing the capacity of local officials to deal with the deluge?  

“Trump is trying to sow seeds of doubt about the election, which is a typical authoritarian tactic—everybody and everything is corrupt all the time,” says Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in the Governance Studies program at the Brookings Institution. “But local officials are not paying attention to Trump. He’s not the only one on the ballot, and at the state and local level, they’re good at harvesting mail-in votes.” 

Kamarck told The Daily Beast that the good news is that we’re in the midst of a massive transformation to mail-in voting, while “the bad news is stuff happens,” except she used a more graphic word and that’s what Trump will highlight. To combat the president’s exaggeration and misinformation, Kamarck urges a massive campaign to educate the public that a deluge of write-in votes means that the election results will not be known by Election Day night, or the morning after. 

It could take a week or even a month to tally the results in a close election as it has in New York where just 648 in-person votes separate Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a 14-term Democrat, from her challenger, 36-year-old Indian-American Siraj Patel, as of Tuesday, while 65,000 mail-in ballots are still being counted. Patei challenged a rule that mail-in ballots must have been postmarked by election day. Turns out the post office doesn’t always postmark third class mail, adding to the confusion. It took weeks for a winner to be declared in other contests in the state.

“My view if a ballot shows up and it’s without a postmark, it should be counted,” says Kamarck, but rules vary from state to state, adding to the confusion. Some states count ballots received up to 5 days after election day if they’re postmarked by election day. California counts ballots received up to 10 days after election day. 

The U.S. Constitution gives states the power to conduct elections, “and in a weird way you don’t want this federalized,” says Kamarck. “If we had one massive system, it would be easier for the Russians to screw it up.”  

States had a dry run in the primaries, “and they know where their choke points are,” says Kamarck. In Maryland, for example, a lot of people didn’t get the ballots they requested, and they went to in-person sites, which led to long waits. The lesson for election officials, says Kamarck, is that they can’t assume a surge in mail-in ballots will mean less in-person voting.  

That may be true in an upscale suburb, but not in a city like Baltimore. “If you’re poor, you move a lot. People just didn’t get their ballots. There are socio-economic aspects, and then there’s the stuff-happens aspect.” 

Oregon has been voting by mail for two decades, so voters there are acclimated. But there is a dirty little secret about voting in general, and mail-in voting in particular, that will get heightened scrutiny in this year’s election. Not every vote is counted unless a race is close. Once a pattern is established, and one candidate has an insurmountable lead, the counting ends.   

Trump and his allies might want to challenge every vote if his challenger doesn’t have a commanding enough margin to put any questions to rest. After evidence emerged of Russian interference in the 2016 election, 22 states began work to create a paper trail because of the fear that electronic transmission of votes could be easily hacked. 

What should we expect on Nov. 3 after the polls close? If there is a political landslide, we may still have a provisional winner that evening. If not, Kamarck envisions “a great big room under heavy guard in the state capitol (in battleground states) where people are counting actual paper ballots. It’s going to take a long time, but it’s going to give you a pretty secure result. Igor and Boris will have a hard time getting in that room.” 

And Donald too, though it won’t stop him from trying to create a scenario where he has weeks to talk about how the system was rigged against him and he actually won even before the people’s votes have actually been counted and no matter what that count shows.

 

[gmr548 16612]

 

[The Dog 44138]

8 hours ago, HenryJames said:

 

Trump will later tweet: "Fake news! We are so confident in our position in Michigan that we are re-directing our resources to expand the map!"

[Sawbonz 27586]

37 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-carolina-deluge-of-absentee-ballot-requests-shows-why-trumps-terrified-of-mail-in-voting?ref=home?ref=home

 

 

 

  Reveal hidden contents

While Democrats have ramped up voter registration, this grassroots surge appears to have been spurred by the virus and widespread discontent over President Trump’s failure to curb its spread rather than party efforts. 

With Trump regularly maligning mail-in voting, the state GOP has tried to insulate local elected officials from his ire. A recent mailing to registered Republicans features Trump tweeting, “Absentee Ballots are fine because you have to go through a precise process to get your voting privilege," while blocking out the second half of the tweet where he says, “Not so with Mail-ins. Rigged Election!!! 20% fraudulent ballots?” 

North Carolina allows any voter to request a mail-in absentee ballot, with the state Board of Election noting that “No special circumstance or reason is needed” for doing so. In the last two presidential elections, 2012 and 2016, over half of mail-in ballots were from registered Republicans, says Bitzer, who founded the Old North State Politics blog, which is tracking the number of absentee ballot requests.  He told the Daily Beast, “The surge of unaffiliated voters is something very new, but just because they’re unaffiliated doesn’t mean they’re not partisan. They just don’t like the (party) label, which is true of younger voters.”   

North Carolina sends out mail-in ballots on Sept. 4 to those who requested them. Early voting begins Oct. 15, three weeks before the election. “This is all kind of uncharted territory for North Carolina,” Bitzer says. “Is this voter intensity among Democrats who have their minds made up and don’t care what happens in October and November?  Or is it another group of voters worried about COVID who wanted the security of public health safety?” 

Also, how quickly will they return their mail-in ballot? Will they wait until the last minute, testing the capacity of local officials to deal with the deluge?  

“Trump is trying to sow seeds of doubt about the election, which is a typical authoritarian tactic—everybody and everything is corrupt all the time,” says Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow in the Governance Studies program at the Brookings Institution. “But local officials are not paying attention to Trump. He’s not the only one on the ballot, and at the state and local level, they’re good at harvesting mail-in votes.” 

Kamarck told The Daily Beast that the good news is that we’re in the midst of a massive transformation to mail-in voting, while “the bad news is stuff happens,” except she used a more graphic word and that’s what Trump will highlight. To combat the president’s exaggeration and misinformation, Kamarck urges a massive campaign to educate the public that a deluge of write-in votes means that the election results will not be known by Election Day night, or the morning after. 

It could take a week or even a month to tally the results in a close election as it has in New York where just 648 in-person votes separate Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a 14-term Democrat, from her challenger, 36-year-old Indian-American Siraj Patel, as of Tuesday, while 65,000 mail-in ballots are still being counted. Patei challenged a rule that mail-in ballots must have been postmarked by election day. Turns out the post office doesn’t always postmark third class mail, adding to the confusion. It took weeks for a winner to be declared in other contests in the state.

“My view if a ballot shows up and it’s without a postmark, it should be counted,” says Kamarck, but rules vary from state to state, adding to the confusion. Some states count ballots received up to 5 days after election day if they’re postmarked by election day. California counts ballots received up to 10 days after election day. 

The U.S. Constitution gives states the power to conduct elections, “and in a weird way you don’t want this federalized,” says Kamarck. “If we had one massive system, it would be easier for the Russians to screw it up.”  

States had a dry run in the primaries, “and they know where their choke points are,” says Kamarck. In Maryland, for example, a lot of people didn’t get the ballots they requested, and they went to in-person sites, which led to long waits. The lesson for election officials, says Kamarck, is that they can’t assume a surge in mail-in ballots will mean less in-person voting.  

That may be true in an upscale suburb, but not in a city like Baltimore. “If you’re poor, you move a lot. People just didn’t get their ballots. There are socio-economic aspects, and then there’s the stuff-happens aspect.” 

Oregon has been voting by mail for two decades, so voters there are acclimated. But there is a dirty little secret about voting in general, and mail-in voting in particular, that will get heightened scrutiny in this year’s election. Not every vote is counted unless a race is close. Once a pattern is established, and one candidate has an insurmountable lead, the counting ends.   

Trump and his allies might want to challenge every vote if his challenger doesn’t have a commanding enough margin to put any questions to rest. After evidence emerged of Russian interference in the 2016 election, 22 states began work to create a paper trail because of the fear that electronic transmission of votes could be easily hacked. 

What should we expect on Nov. 3 after the polls close? If there is a political landslide, we may still have a provisional winner that evening. If not, Kamarck envisions “a great big room under heavy guard in the state capitol (in battleground states) where people are counting actual paper ballots. It’s going to take a long time, but it’s going to give you a pretty secure result. Igor and Boris will have a hard time getting in that room.” 

And Donald too, though it won’t stop him from trying to create a scenario where he has weeks to talk about how the system was rigged against him and he actually won even before the people’s votes have actually been counted and no matter what that count shows.

 

Lot of dogs requesting ballots probably 

[Superhero 8836]

Call me skeptical, but I don't trust mail in ballots at all. Voter suppression is real, and I wouldn't be surprised if mail in ballots are "lost", or purposefully destroyed in swing states. It's harder to publicly suppress voters who are going to the polls when there are cameras rolling.

I'm not sure how many states have early voting. California had it for the mid-term election which was nice because less crowds. I actually had a mail in ballot that I dropped off in person because I'm paranoid and don't trust the mail system.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

12 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Call me skeptical, but I don't trust mail in ballots at all. Voter suppression is real, and I wouldn't be surprised if mail in ballots are "lost", or purposefully destroyed in swing states. It's harder to publicly suppress voters who are going to the polls when there are cameras rolling.

I'm not sure how many states have early voting. California had it for the mid-term election which was nice because less crowds. I actually had a mail in ballot that I dropped off in person because I'm paranoid and don't trust the mail system.

I am a big conspiracy theorist on mail in ballots as well. I am absolutely voting in person because I want mine counted. 

[Mapache 1117]

If true, the asshole is already trying to steal the election any way he can