2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok- so those numbers are shittastic. But what’s amazing is W had like a 27% approval ratings nationwide at the end of his second term. So, Trumps still got more of an electoral share claiming to approve of him than late term W. 

Even Cali has its white racist rural fucks living in Bakersfield.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Plus the nihilists living large in their mansions and large bungalows in Orange County aren’t gone yet. They’re just minimized.

[WBT 20566]

1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Even Cali has its white racist rural fucks living in Bakersfield.

Okies.

How many of you that sit and judge me
Ever walked the streets of Bakersfield?

[JimmyJames 12271]

13 minutes ago, WBT said:

Okies.

How many of you that sit and judge me
Ever walked the streets of Bakersfield?

I prefer walking in Taft, with white shoes on.

[406W30th 1111]

12 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

The idea that Black people are a simplistic, naive monolith who'd vote for a musician simply because he is Black is so racistly on-brand for the Wisconsin GOP. The ironic thing is that Kanye will peel more voters from Trump than he will from Biden.

 

[gmr548 16580]

Ok- so those numbers are shittastic. But what’s amazing is W had like a 27% approval ratings nationwide at the end of his second term. So, Trumps still got more of an electoral share claiming to approve of him than late term W. 

W wasn't a cult of personality. Supporting Trump is an identity. 35-40 percent of this country would enthusiastically die for Trump. It's something else.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

And thanks to COVID, they might get to!

[Hank Kingsley 20932]

 

 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

 

this election is starting to look like a landslide. 

[The Dog 44045]

So there's this: Trump's campaign knocks on a million doors a week. Biden's knocks on 0.

Biden's campaign has been almost entirely remote/virtual:

Quote

The decision to forgo door-knocking is part of a larger gamble that voters will give Biden credit for taking the coronavirus more seriously than Trump. The strategy has extended to Biden’s own activities: He’s been mocked by Trump for campaigning from his basement, though Biden has ventured out to more public events lately. The campaign’s Philadelphia headquarters is mostly empty, and many new hires are working remotely.

Whereas Trump's is sending bodies into the field:

Quote

Trump and the Republican National Committee, in contrast, started deploying mask-wearing field staffers and volunteers to the streets in June. The GOP quickly ramped up and now claims more than a million doors a week despite Covid-19 surges across the country, including in swing states like Arizona.

What's everyone's thoughts on this? Risky for Biden, or a smart move?

[SilasCoade 2622]

36 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

 

 

Their spending is inverted.

[SydneyCarton 48100]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

So there's this: Trump's campaign knocks on a million doors a week. Biden's knocks on 0.

Biden's campaign has been almost entirely remote/virtual:

Whereas Trump's is sending bodies into the field:

What's everyone's thoughts on this? Risky for Biden, or a smart move?

It's fucking risky and stupid. Knock on doors if it matters. You can wear masks and be careful about distancing. But to older folks, someone knocking on the door can feel like you/their candidate cares for you. Fucking do it. 

[SubliminalHorn 6787]

I wouldn’t want strangers knocking on my door right now. Even in the beforetimes, I didn’t want people coming over without me knowing. Does anyone want strangers knocking on their doors right now to chit chat even if they’re wearing a mask? I sure as hell don’t. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Of course it’s fucking stupid.  Acting like a lazy ass campaign is strategy is Trumpian in its denial of the obvious. 

[The Dog 44045]

15 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's fucking risky and stupid. Knock on doors if it matters. You can wear masks and be careful about distancing. But to older folks, someone knocking on the door can feel like you/their candidate cares for you. Fucking do it. 

 I'm also like @SubliminalHorn that I don't like people knocking on my door, either, but I agree the personal contact is important to the elderly and that's a group Biden needs in places like Florida.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

There’s 1000 ways to BOTH knock on doors and show people you care about COVID.  Have a procedure of knocking and backing up 10 feet. Would you look at that! You’re showing you take it seriously! Knock and drop a flyer in the mailbox, explaining you’d love to chat but you don’t want to push it considering COVID. WOW! Two ideas! Send out texts first and gauge different peoples feelings about it in different areas. THREE!
 

No, I guess literally doing nothing is the only possible idea. 

Edited August 5, 2020 by BehoId, The Underminer!

[The Dog 44045]

23 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

this election is starting to look like a landslide. 

lol

Here's the polls from Zogby: https://zogbyanalytics.com/news/950-the-zogby-poll-trump-and-biden-neck-and-neck-in-florida-ohio-and-pennsylvania-biden-up-by-four-percent-in-north-carolina-trump-winning-big-with-swing-voters

They consider anyone who voted for Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2016 to be "swing voters", and Trump is winning those handily in their sample. 

[Rougarou 594]

Just now, The Dog said:

 I'm also like @SubliminalHorn that I don't like people knocking on my door, either, but I agree the personal contact is important to the elderly and that's a group Biden needs in places like Florida.

This.

Millennial's don't like people showing up unannounced to your house (or even announced) but the olds love it. It's known. 

[SydneyCarton 48100]

Just now, The Dog said:

 I'm also like @SubliminalHorn that I don't like people knocking on my door, either, but I agree the personal contact is important to the elderly and that's a group Biden needs in places like Florida.

Let me be clear. I don't like people knocking on my door. I fucking HATE it. But there is a huge percentage of people who like it, who need it. You can knock on my door, say who you're with, and allow me to say I'm not interested unobtrusively and move on, and I'm fine with it. That keeps me from being irritated and allows you to go after folks who do care, who do need that interaction. It's fucking stupid. 

[The Dog 44045]

On the other hand, I have to wonder how Trump volunteers are handling the aftermath of that interview with undecideds (hard core Trumpers won't care).

Trump volunteer: "Knock knock"

Voter: "What the fuck was up with that interview the other day?"

Not fun.

[Hank Kingsley 20932]

Spoke to my diehard Trumpkin friend this morning for the first time in about a month, just wanted to get an idea of where he thinks the election is heading. 

Trump's gonna get around 360 electoral votes, ANTIFA, fake news, China, he's handled COVID perfectly, etc. All the Fox/OAN talking points memorized. He's dug in. 

 

[Pancho 44789]

My gym shows Fox Business on the tvs. (I've complained numerous times but nothing.) I think they skurred. 

Stu Varney had a segment that went something like this. 

Stu: "IVE BEEN IN LIBERAL CITIES AND HAVE SEEN NO BIDEN BUMPER STICKERS! BUT I HAVE SEEN LOTS OF TRUMP SIGNS.

(rambling)

Stu: "DEMS ARE WORRIED BIDEN ISN'T OUT THERE ENOUGH! (shows random quote out of context from a dem PA state senator)

(rambling)

Stu: "TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS DYNAMIC!"

(rambling)

Stu: "BIDEN HAS FUMBLED HIS VP PICK, HE'S JUST RAMBLING AND NEEDS TO BE CAMPAIGNING MORE!"

Stu brings on a guest who just repeats the above. 

 

 

 

[Bevo14 8311]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Spoke to my diehard Trumpkin friend this morning for the first time in about a month, just wanted to get an idea of where he thinks the election is heading. 

Trump's gonna get around 360 electoral votes, ANTIFA, fake news, China, he's handled COVID perfectly, etc. All the Fox/OAN talking points memorized. He's dug in. 

 

Trumpkin friend is the new aggy friend

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

14 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok- so those numbers are shittastic. But what’s amazing is W had like a 27% approval ratings nationwide at the end of his second term. So, Trumps still got more of an electoral share claiming to approve of him than late term W. 

W wasn't a cult of personality. Supporting Trump is an identity. 35-40 percent of this country would enthusiastically die for Trump. It's something else.

Agreed. That’s sort of the point I was making. 

[GRHorn 105]

These debates will be something else. 

The way he stumbles over saying physical and mental fitness is pretty cringe. Amazing that these are the choices. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26454]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

My gym shows Fox Business on the tvs. (I've complained numerous times but nothing.) I think they skurred. 

Stu Varney had a segment that went something like this. 

Stu: "IVE BEEN IN LIBERAL CITIES AND HAVE SEEN NO BIDEN BUMPER STICKERS! BUT I HAVE SEEN LOTS OF TRUMP SIGNS.

(rambling)

Stu: "DEMS ARE WORRIED BIDEN ISN'T OUT THERE ENOUGH! (shows random quote out of context from a dem PA state senator)

(rambling)

Stu: "TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS DYNAMIC!"

(rambling)

Stu: "BIDEN HAS FUMBLED HIS VP PICK, HE'S JUST RAMBLING AND NEEDS TO BE CAMPAIGNING MORE!"

Stu brings on a guest who just repeats the above. 

 

 

 

A year ago I was in the Admirals Club and Karl Rove walked in. This stupid old man made a big noise about it and then demanded that they change the TVs from CNN to Fox News to "recognize" him. 

[SilasCoade 2622]

9 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

Trumpkin friend is the new aggy friend

same friend

[gmr548 16580]

same friend

Yup. Venn diagram is just a single circle.

[Biff Tannen 45683]

22 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Spoke to my diehard Trumpkin friend this morning for the first time in about a month, just wanted to get an idea of where he thinks the election is heading. 

Trump's gonna get around 360 electoral votes, ANTIFA, fake news, China, he's handled COVID perfectly, etc. All the Fox/OAN talking points memorized. He's dug in. 

 

Time to cut that one loose.

[Bruh Man 3160]

republican fawg working on behalf the kayne campaign, the entire party is corrupt. 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20932]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

So there's this: Trump's campaign knocks on a million doors a week. Biden's knocks on 0.

Biden's campaign has been almost entirely remote/virtual:

Whereas Trump's is sending bodies into the field:

What's everyone's thoughts on this? Risky for Biden, or a smart move?

 

Typically a very strong ground game is needed in general elections, but this year seems to be an outlier if you look at the Democratic primary race. 

Bernie had the best ground game, millions of volunteers, phone bankers, etc.  He split Iowa and NH with Buttigieg in two close races, Biden struggled in both of these states. 

Once the field got pared down, Biden beat Bernie pretty badly. And Joe had no ground game and wasn't even spending a penny on TV ads in states he easily won. 

I just don't think we can look at the typical campaign strategies as being significantly beneficial in this particular election .

 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

So there's this: Trump's campaign knocks on a million doors a week. Biden's knocks on 0.

Biden's campaign has been almost entirely remote/virtual:

Whereas Trump's is sending bodies into the field:

What's everyone's thoughts on this? Risky for Biden, or a smart move?

I don't think door-knocking is worth shit in a presidential campaign.  I think it has a lot of value in a city council campaign where people don't know the candidates.  I would even say it has value in a state rep or even a congressional race, where the personal touch can be meaningful with some voters.

But in a presidential election?  Pfft.  Everybody knows who these candidates are.  There are very few undecideds.  Nobody is sitting there saying, "well, I don't like Donald Trump, but since that nice young man knocked on my door, . . . ."

Volunteers need to be put to work getting out the vote.  And that can largely be done by telephone/text/email.  Once we get into early voting there is value in door-knocking just to make sure that people have a ride to the polls.  But not really before.

The only value I can see to door-to-door in this environment is if we're going to play the role of @StassneyHorn and hand out mail-in-ballot applications, explain that you don't need to disclose a disability, and make sure that they get sent in timely in order to have a ballot by early October.  But at least in Texas, my experience is that mail-in ballots are so delayed I wouldn't really advise the campaign to focus on that.  Just try to get people to the physical polls during early voting.

1 hour ago, Llogg said:

Their spending is inverted.

And I disagree with this, for the same reason others are focused on door-knocking.  Biden has the digital consumer locked down.  He doesn't need to spend money preaching to that particular choir.  He needs to convince more of the olds, and they still consume their ads through television.

I don't think the olds care all that much about door-knocking.  But I think they can be moved through television ads.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

58 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

There’s 1000 ways to BOTH knock on doors and show people you care about COVID.  Have a procedure of knocking and backing up 10 feet. Would you look at that! You’re showing you take it seriously! Knock and drop a flyer in the mailbox, explaining you’d love to chat but you don’t want to push it considering COVID. WOW! Two ideas! Send out texts first and gauge different peoples feelings about it in different areas. THREE!
 

No, I guess literally doing nothing is the only possible idea. 

The Republicans have Scott Presler flying around the country and signing up people to vote, especially in swing states. He has been doing it for months. Will it make a difference? Unknown, but he has both a social media presence and other social media followers that boost his efforts on Facebook, Twitter, etc.

 

[Voldemort86 2259]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2020/08/04/kanye-west-gets-helping-hand-gop-get-wisconsin-ballot/3296285001/
 

this is disgusting!
 

Wisconsin republicans are the nastiest and most vile republicans out there. They gerrymander, suppress the vote, purge voter rolls, close polling locations, and sue the democrats at every turn.

these are some truly horrible...... nasty people we are dealing with. I wouldn’t give them water if they were dehydrated or medicine if they were dying. Assholes.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Voldemort86

[SilasCoade 2622]

41 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

And I disagree with this, for the same reason others are focused on door-knocking.  Biden has the digital consumer locked down.  He doesn't need to spend money preaching to that particular choir.  He needs to convince more of the olds, and they still consume their ads through television.

I don't think the olds care all that much about door-knocking.  But I think they can be moved through television ads.

Any undecided is not going to be swayed by ads of any sort, no matter their age. The ads are for building enthusiasm and increasing voter turnout. If more young people turn out to vote Trump loses. That's it. That's the whole equation.

[Biff Tannen 45683]

27 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2020/08/04/kanye-west-gets-helping-hand-gop-get-wisconsin-ballot/3296285001/
 

this is disgusting!
 

Wisconsin republicans are the nastiest and most vile republicans out there. They gerrymander, suppress the vote, purge voter rolls, close polling locations, and sue the democrats at every turn.

these are some truly horrible...... nasty people we are dealing with. I wouldn’t give them water if they were dehydrated or medicine if they were dying. Assholes.

Didn't polls show that he would actually take voters from dotard though?  Doesn't seem like the best strategy to prop up a 3rd party candidate to take away votes from yourself.

[Biff Tannen 45683]

48 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Just try to get people to the physical polls during early voting.

This is the most important to me.  Get people out before Nov 3 so they don't have to stand in lines during a pandemic.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

27 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/investigations/daniel-bice/2020/08/04/kanye-west-gets-helping-hand-gop-get-wisconsin-ballot/3296285001/
 

this is disgusting!
 

Wisconsin republicans are the nastiest and most vile republicans out there. They gerrymander, suppress the vote, purge voter rolls, close polling locations, and sue the democrats at every turn.

these are some truly horrible...... nasty people we are dealing with. I wouldn’t give them water if they were dehydrated or medicine if they were dying. Assholes.

We lived there for awhile. We knew plenty of average nice people, but gotta admit there are some odd folks and politicians there. After all, Ed Gein and Jeffery Dahmer were Wisconsinites.

[tantric superman 4667]

I do like Bucky though.  His toothache makes him crabby.

[Queen Bitch 1692]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

These debates will be something else. 

The way he stumbles over saying physical and mental fitness is pretty cringe. Amazing that these are the choices. 

A known stutterer doing a bit of stuttering is cringe?

[Guest Lobo]

11 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

I do like Bucky though.  His toothache makes him crabby.

We are more fans of a Wisconsin State.  
they typically put out a more conservative graduate.  And like Trump University, Wisconsin State University gives a great education at an affordable  price that is respected globally with an athletics department that wins so much, they’re tired of it.  
I forget the name of their mascot,  it I’m sure it’s tremendous 

[Voldemort86 2259]

17 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

We lived there for awhile. We knew plenty of average nice people, but gotta admit there are some odd folks and politicians there. After all, Ed Gein and Jeffery Dahmer were Wisconsinites.

I’m not dissing the state, but the GOP politicians from there treat politics like it’s a matter of life and death when it’s not. It’s almost scary how cut throat they can be.

they make Texas republicans look fair by comparison.

[Dnaguy 11960]

1 hour ago, Bruh Man said:

republican fawg working on behalf the kayne campaign, the entire party is corrupt. 

 

[gmr548 16580]

These debates will be something else. 
The way he stumbles over saying physical and mental fitness is pretty cringe. Amazing that these are the choices. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, Rougarou said:

This.

Millennial's don't like people showing up unannounced to your house (or even announced) but the olds love it. It's known. 

My dad is both an old and a trumpkin and if someone came knocking on his door today asking him to vote for trump he would tell them to get the hell off his property or he was getting his gun.

He don’t want the Covid or my mom to get it. I think a lot of other olds are of similar mindset. 

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/

Quote

Clinton led in most national polls, but was typically garnering support only in the low- to mid-40s. Biden’s share has been hovering around 50 percent. As a result, some of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the Trump-Biden race might be reduced, in part because there are simply fewer voters who haven’t made up their minds and because signs point to fewer third-party voters than in 2016. Combined, Clinton and Trump had secured 84 percent of support, on average, in national polls in early August 2016. By comparison, Biden and Trump currently combine for 92 percent.

Things are mostly good for Biden at the state-level, too. Just as he does nationally, Biden enjoys more overall support than Clinton in each of the battleground states we looked at. But there are a couple of significant caveats: As the chart below shows, there are several key states where Biden’s margin against Trump is actually lower than Clinton’s was at this point in 2016. (Although remember, we’re comparing Biden to Clinton at her peak nationally.)

An interesting read 

[HenryJames 66049]

 

[Hank Scorpio 17729]

 

[The Dog 44045]

48 minutes ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-polling-better-than-clinton-at-her-peak/

An interesting read 

Yup. Lots of articles saying this same thing over the last month or so, and 538 has been banging that drum for a couple of months.

RCP has a chart that tracks how well Biden is doing relative to Hillary in the RCP average. You want to look at the first chart: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-national-polls-2020-vs-2016/

Blue means Biden is polling better than Hillary did at that time; red means worse. The second two are the real time averages for both 2020 and 2016.

Keep in mind that Hillary's lead at this time was immediately after the Democratic national convention, so she was seeing a bounce. The small Trump lead in 2016 was immediately after the Republican convention, which was held two weeks prior. 

[Patrick Bateman 3913]

3 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Spoke to my diehard Trumpkin friend this morning for the first time in about a month, just wanted to get an idea of where he thinks the election is heading. 

Trump's gonna get around 360 electoral votes, ANTIFA, fake news, China, he's handled COVID perfectly, etc. All the Fox/OAN talking points memorized. He's dug in. 

 

I think (and I think the data supports it), more people are dug in on either side than maybe any race in modern history.  There are as many or more people who hate Donny than love him.