2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

This is great! This is wonderful!

 

But for the love of Mike, please create a specific thread for it.

[Biff Tannen 45491]

1 minute ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

This is great! This is wonderful!

 

But for the love of Mike, please create a specific thread for it.

Who is mike?

[SydneyCarton 47836]

Just now, Mrs Whiggins said:

This is great! This is wonderful!

 

But for the love of Mike, please create a specific thread for it.

You're suggesting someone create a "Anastasis's Worldview and Defense" thread?

[tantric superman 4667]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

In today's grammar notes, I looked up "condescend" and learned that (a) it is a "catenative" verb and (b) almost excursively precedes the infinitive "to" or "toward(s)".  Can one actually "condescend someone's speech"?

Appreciate jimmyjazz caveating the statement.

[tantric superman 4667]

18 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I've never claimed to be the only one who has it all figured out.

For me, it's posting on surly nee shaggy...

[StassneyHorn 6535]

Pivoting this thread back

Jim Hightower and Michael Bennett (yes the football player) are involved with a SuperPAC dedicated to flipping Texas to Biden.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/07/joe-biden-texas-super-pac/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Super PAC launches to help Joe Biden win Texas

“Hightower and others involved in the super PAC say they are starting with a focus on building a small-dollar base, hoping to appeal to the many Texas Democrats who are eager to flip Texas for Biden but have not yet been accommodated by a group solely devoted to that mission.”

[SydneyCarton 47836]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Pivoting this thread back

Jim Hightower and Michael Bennett (yes the football player) are involved with a SuperPAC dedicated to flipping Texas to Biden.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/07/joe-biden-texas-super-pac/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Super PAC launches to help Joe Biden win Texas

“Hightower and others involved in the super PAC say they are starting with a focus on building a small-dollar base, hoping to appeal to the many Texas Democrats who are eager to flip Texas for Biden but have not yet been accommodated by a group solely devoted to that mission.”

Lets hope they focus their money on voter registration in urban areas and organization for voting. 

[Biff Tannen 45491]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Lets hope they focus their money on voter registration in urban areas and organization for voting. 

And pushing EARLY VOTING

[SydneyCarton 47836]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

And pushing EARLY VOTING

Yeah, that's what I meant by organization. Get rides. Set schedules for certain streets or neighborhoods to visit their voting place on certain early days. Whatever the fuck it takes. 

[Anastasis 23390]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'd still like to see you lay out in very simple, concise terms, step by step, exactly where you think the Obama administration and the DNC went wrong.  I know you feel you've done that, but every single time you pepper your language with lingo that many of us simply don't understand.  For instance, I still don't know what a "cutout" is.  I can't figure it out from context.  It isn't in any dictionary, at least in the manner politicos use it.  Reading wonk writing is like reading the prose of a Rhetoric professor -- almost none of them can communicate their ideas because they spend all their time in a bubble speaking among themselves in a tangential, non-standard form of English.  (I'm serious about this.  Go read RhetComp profs' blogs.  It might as well be Greek, and I don't think it's all because of my limited intellect.)

Start at the top.  What was the first transgression?  I'm actually open to being convinced.

I assume that you are referring to the history of the exchange on the mueller thread. I'd be happy to answer on that thread if you want to post the question there. 

If you want my more general thesis, I believe that we have a dysfunctional two party political system that is in mid to late stages of a death spiral. The influencing factors are many, some of which I think are structural and entrenched. I don't feel compelled to support that system by engaging in forced decision making between shitty choices.  

[Biff Tannen 45491]

Just now, Anastasis said:

I assume that you are referring to the history of the exchange on the mueller thread. I'd be happy to answer on that thread if you want to post the question there. 

If you want my more general thesis, I believe that we have a dysfunctional two party political system that is in mid to late stages of a death spiral. The influencing factors are many, some of which I think are structural and entrenched. I don't feel compelled to support that system by engaging in forced decision making between shitty choices.  

I would agree, but the disconnect seems to be you think that you just want to burn the system and the country to the ground.  Most of us see this as the last chance to avoid that option.  Are you more Brisket than Brisket?

[jimmyjazz 45538]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I assume that you are referring to the history of the exchange on the mueller thread. I'd be happy to answer on that thread if you want to post the question there. 

If you want my more general thesis, I believe that we have a dysfunctional two party political system that is in mid to late stages of a death spiral. The influencing factors are many, some of which I think are structural and entrenched. I don't feel compelled to support that system by engaging in forced decision making between shitty choices.  

Yes, I didn't realize I was posting  on the wrong thread.  They run together.  I'll put it over there.

I am indeed referring to the specifics of the Steele Dossier, etc., how it was commissioned, issues related to FISA, etc.  

[TheStoicPaisano 9904]

27 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Who is mike?

Anyone - Tyson, Jordan, Jackson.

[formermav43 4599]

23 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Pivoting this thread back

Jim Hightower and Michael Bennett (yes the football player) are involved with a SuperPAC dedicated to flipping Texas to Biden.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/08/07/joe-biden-texas-super-pac/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Super PAC launches to help Joe Biden win Texas

“Hightower and others involved in the super PAC say they are starting with a focus on building a small-dollar base, hoping to appeal to the many Texas Democrats who are eager to flip Texas for Biden but have not yet been accommodated by a group solely devoted to that mission.”

Michael Bennett still sucks.

[SydneyCarton 47836]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I assume that you are referring to the history of the exchange on the mueller thread. I'd be happy to answer on that thread if you want to post the question there. 

If you want my more general thesis, I believe that we have a dysfunctional two party political system that is in mid to late stages of a death spiral. The influencing factors are many, some of which I think are structural and entrenched. I don't feel compelled to support that system by engaging in forced decision making between shitty choices.  

That's all well and good. But from your statement, even you agree that the house is one fire. So the question is do you attempt to put it out, or do you let it burn. It sounds like you're willing to let it burn. Well, ok, that's an ethos. I guess, what confuses me is why you're not basically presenting yourself as basically being an anarchist, or cheering for revolution. I believe I remember that you have children. What are your views on raising them in an environment like this? Are you concerned? Are you making plans to relocate elsewhere? If you want it to die, why aren't you actively working to hasten the fall of our systems? 

Personal beliefs are personal beliefs. I'm not attacking or even criticizing them in this instance. I just don't understand an attitude of "You can't make me choose between bad choices." Yes, that's true. But some choices are clearly worse than others. But for an obviously intelligent individual, I fail to see what that is in this scenario other than a copout. Is your personal integrity more important than potentially tens of thousands of lives (covid fallout)? Is it more important than having a relatively safe place to raise your children, or at least as safe a place as possible in these times? Do you simply not believe real danger exists for their and your lifetimes? Your standard move is to just shit on the system, and shit on both sides, and mock and imply stupidity to anyone who is trying, flailing maybe, but still trying to save something that at the very least, used to be a productive manner of governance. I think people here struggle with your stances and tactics at times because it's not really clear what you think in regards to any of the above questions in regards to family, ability to live a somewhat free life in the short and medium term, and if you're certain it's doomed, what are you doing about it for you and yours? I just don't understand your motivations. Because if it is your personal integrity, that's fucking bullshit. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

33 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Jim Hightower and Michael Bennett

Show me a loss

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Not really -it’s trading in such a tight range that it looks like a trend, when it’s really just the outsize influence of frequent, noisy, outlier polls. That being said, I do think we’ll see disaffected Republicans “come home” over the next 6 weeks and the race will tighten. 

The two things to watch are the state polls and the generic congressional ballot. Those will tell the story more clearly than the national presidential polls. 
 

Yep. And that’s why I’ve been saying 6-8 point race with 350 or so EV for Biden- boring ass win like Clinton’s 2 and Obama’s 2. When Dems win easily that’s basically the script. But, if that doesn’t happen there’s still upside (downside?) to a 10-15 point race but that’s less likely imo. 
what’s exceedingly unlikely is a trump narrow win. I think that’s pretty much over any chance at that. 

[4th&Five 41457]

 

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

18 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

Anyone - Tyson, Jordan, Jackson.

Hunt?

Mike Hunt? 

[mdmost 42827]

As opposed to me who is barely lifting a finger to stave off a pandemic that disproportionately infects and kills black people!

[Bateshorn 9897]

14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. And that’s why I’ve been saying 6-8 point race with 350 or so EV for Biden- boring ass win like Clinton’s 2 and Obama’s 2. When Dems win easily that’s basically the script. But, if that doesn’t happen there’s still upside (downside?) to a 10-15 point race but that’s less likely imo. 
what’s exceedingly unlikely is a trump narrow win. I think that’s pretty much over any chance at that. 

Charlie Cook discusses this today.

tl;dr:  We are in a bit of polling desert right now, as all the big boys (FOX, Wapo, NPR) wait for a VP selection, then poll again after the conventions are done.  The current polls are all robo-polls or internet only, which are usually pretty low quality and tend to be GOP leaning.

Which isn't surprising, usually after Trump has had a very rough 6-8 weeks, a flood of weak methodology online polls will appear and drag the RCP average back towards it's historical mean. It's been pretty consistent throughout his presidency.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Bateshorn

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hunt?

Mike Hunt? 

ISWYDT.

Hope you are enjoying the cooler weather in ND and maybe the topic will return to the President.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Mrs Whiggins
space

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

Brotha Horn has the right to spike the football and say told you so- as near as I can tel- this seems to be his essential rant and point against monolithic block voting. Biden keeps saying the quiet part in his out loud voice. Combine that with you ain’t black and- black kids can be just as smart as rich kids or whatever that cringe was all about and his age at 80 years old and it’s pretty clear that Biden is from another generation and probably uncomfortable talking about racial issues in a time of Wokeness (and honestly- who can blame him?). 
I don’t think he has any negative racial thoughts to him- he’s just, somehow after 50 years in the game a dude without any polish. 
Some day- I believe- this monolithic bloc will change but that day isn’t here and that day probably can’t exist unless and until there’s some more racial healing and conservatives get their shit together and chase of the racist hoppleheads In the party, so I don’t have any belief that this day is soon. 
That being said- it’s objectively factual what he said (monolithic

voting blocs are real!  No!  Really- it’s true!), I have no problem with it, but it does amuses to see his black surrogates circle the wagons and say, no big deal. Let’s just say that’s not the benefit of the doubt anyone that doesn’t have a D beside their name gets. 

I’m sure it’s also the kind of thing that causes Bernie Bro’s or Warren supporters to cuss under their breath about and say- Damn it Joe- but it’s ultimately not going to move the needle even a slight bit, and I look at that as pointless. 

[immamac 42513]

Polls don't matter. There's a guy from American University who has accurately predicted the outcomes of every election in the last 40 years based on 13 key factors.

https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/keys-to-the-white-house/

This talks about 2016. You can find videos of his 2020 prediction.

Biden by landslide.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

2 minutes ago, immamac said:

Polls don't matter. There's a guy from American University who has accurately predicted the outcomes of every election in the last 40 years based on 13 key factors.

https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/keys-to-the-white-house/

This talks about 2016. You can find videos of his 2020 prediction.

Biden by landslide.

Doesn't that article say the model predict(ed) a Clinton win?

[immamac 42513]

No.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

Just now, immamac said:

No.

Quote

In his forecast published December 13, 2015, Lichtman coded five keys as false. Thus, the Keys model predicts that the Democrats will secure re-election in 2016. 

Problem is, the table (maybe closer to the election?) had 6 keys false, which would indicate a Trump victory.

[immamac 42513]

No.

[formermav43 4599]

7 minutes ago, immamac said:

Polls don't matter. There's a guy from American University who has accurately predicted the outcomes of every election in the last 40 years based on 13 key factors.

https://pollyvote.com/en/components/models/mixed/keys-to-the-white-house/

This talks about 2016. You can find videos of his 2020 prediction.

Biden by landslide.

I don’t believe his model suggests a landslide.

[immamac 42513]

Agreed, but I'm calling it by landslide.

[wildcat09 29213]

If I ever get to be dictator for a day I'm forcing every guy (it's almost always a guy) who thinks he's brilliant for being one of the few to understand that our two party system sucks to read basically any political science book. These guys are all just college freshmen taking their first day of their first humanities class, but forever.

[The Dog 43784]

Biden's comments about the Black/Hispanic vote is a big nothingburger. The "you ain't black" comment was a true gaffe. 

[immamac 42513]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Biden's comments about the Black/Hispanic vote is a big nothingburger. The "you ain't black" comment was a true gaffe. 

neither were wrong - just misinterpreted and not fully conceived thoughts.

[Texaspython 231]

39 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Brotha Horn has the right to spike the football and say told you so- as near as I can tel- this seems to be his essential rant and point against monolithic block voting. Biden keeps saying the quiet part in his out loud voice. Combine that with you ain’t black and- black kids can be just as smart as rich kids or whatever that cringe was all about and his age at 80 years old and it’s pretty clear that Biden is from another generation and probably uncomfortable talking about racial issues in a time of Wokeness (and honestly- who can blame him?). 
I don’t think he has any negative racial thoughts to him- he’s just, somehow after 50 years in the game a dude without any polish. 
Some day- I believe- this monolithic bloc will change but that day isn’t here and that day probably can’t exist unless and until there’s some more racial healing and conservatives get their shit together and chase of the racist hoppleheads In the party, so I don’t have any belief that this day is soon. 
That being said- it’s objectively factual what he said (monolithic

voting blocs are real!  No!  Really- it’s true!), I have no problem with it, but it does amuses to see his black surrogates circle the wagons and say, no big deal. Let’s just say that’s not the benefit of the doubt anyone that doesn’t have a D beside their name gets. 

I’m sure it’s also the kind of thing that causes Bernie Bro’s or Warren supporters to cuss under their breath about and say- Damn it Joe- but it’s ultimately not going to move the needle even a slight bit, and I look at that as pointless. 

Have you ever considered they’re voting for what they believe is in their best interest?

['stache 21744]

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Biden's comments about the Black/Hispanic vote is a big nothingburger. The "you ain't black" comment was a true gaffe. 

It was dumb and not a nothingburger, but I hope that most have figured out by now that his heart (or more specifically his politics) are in the right place through these verbal fumbles. Especially in light of his opponent.

[immamac 42513]

1 minute ago, Texaspython said:

Have you ever considered they’re voting for what they believe is in their best interest?

yes, everyone has stated that - what they are also saying is being principled in most elections is fine as the incumbent isn't a literal fuckwad ruining the country and inciting racist white power violence all over while simultaneously being almost solely responsible for the most deaths in the world by far from a pandemic.

This election isn't just some random bullshit election that you get to vote for your beliefs, it's one that actually matters and if Trump is re-elected America is literally done. 

[Texaspython 231]

Just now, immamac said:

yes, everyone has stated that - what they are also saying is being principled in most elections is fine as the incumbent isn't a literal fuckwad ruining the country and inciting racist white power violence all over while simultaneously being almost solely responsible for the most deaths in the world by far from a pandemic.

This election isn't just some random bullshit election that you get to vote for your beliefs, it's one that actually matters and if Trump is re-elected America is literally done. 

My comment was directed at Wulaw criticizing black Democratic voting.

Third party nonsense is just absolutely ridiculous.

[Ted Lange 16040]

39 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Doesn't that article say the model predict(ed) a Clinton win?

No

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/09/23/trump-is-headed-for-a-win-says-professor-whos-predicted-30-years-of-presidential-outcomes-correctly/?postshare=2541474654865044

We're a little bit less than seven weeks out from the election today. Who do you predict will win in November?

Based on the 13 keys, it would predict a Donald Trump victory. Remember, six keys and you're out, and right now the Democrats are out — for sure — five keys.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

This election isn't just some random bullshit election that you get to vote for your beliefs, it's one that actually matters and if Trump is re-elected America is literally done. 

I'm making Moscow Mules on the Ledge today, feel free to join in and commiserate.

[immamac 42513]

Just now, Texaspython said:

My comment was directed at Wulaw criticizing black Democratic voting.

Third party nonsense is just absolutely ridiculous.

Take your rep

[skeeter 453]

 

[BigHorn'13 3352]

52 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Brotha Horn has the right to spike the football and say told you so- as near as I can tel- this seems to be his essential rant and point against monolithic block voting. Biden keeps saying the quiet part in his out loud voice. Combine that with you ain’t black and- black kids can be just as smart as rich kids or whatever that cringe was all about and his age at 80 years old and it’s pretty clear that Biden is from another generation and probably uncomfortable talking about racial issues in a time of Wokeness (and honestly- who can blame him?). 
I don’t think he has any negative racial thoughts to him- he’s just, somehow after 50 years in the game a dude without any polish. 
Some day- I believe- this monolithic bloc will change but that day isn’t here and that day probably can’t exist unless and until there’s some more racial healing and conservatives get their shit together and chase of the racist hoppleheads In the party, so I don’t have any belief that this day is soon. 
That being said- it’s objectively factual what he said (monolithic

voting blocs are real!  No!  Really- it’s true!), I have no problem with it, but it does amuses to see his black surrogates circle the wagons and say, no big deal. Let’s just say that’s not the benefit of the doubt anyone that doesn’t have a D beside their name gets. 

I’m sure it’s also the kind of thing that causes Bernie Bro’s or Warren supporters to cuss under their breath about and say- Damn it Joe- but it’s ultimately not going to move the needle even a slight bit, and I look at that as pointless. 

Finally something I can agree with from you. 

15 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

If I ever get to be dictator for a day I'm forcing every guy (it's almost always a guy) who thinks he's brilliant for being one of the few to understand that our two party system sucks...

Forever third partier here!

I'll read your book and still think it sucks and that people that continue to participate are only falling victim to false choices created by the party they support. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

more Brisket than Brisket

White Zombie's worst song.

[Tom 2959]

9 minutes ago, BigHorn'13 said:

Finally something I can agree with from you. 

Forever third partier here!

I'll read your book and still think it sucks and that people that continue to participate are only falling victim to false choices created by the party they support. 

 

I'd argue that most people agree that the two party system sucks, but it's what we're stuck with.  Unless there's some type of constitutional convention to completely change our form of Democracy, you might as well save your gas and stay home than vote third party.  You're wasting your time.

Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders figured it out that you can make more noise bringing your outsider beliefs into the establishment parties than running as Libertarian, Green, Independent, etc.

I didn't support Biden in the primaries.  He was maybe my 5th choice at best.  But I sure as hell will support him in the general, because I know there are exactly two people who have a shot at being president and shaping the country over the next four years.  I'm picking the better choice.

[StassneyHorn 6535]

The black vote as a monolith exists solely because of the actions of Republicans. They used to get 30% of the Black vote and then the Civil Rights movement happened followed up with the Southern Strategy.  It was deliberate, Republicans made a choice to not reach out and focus on racial politics in order to realign Southern Democrats. 
 

You will have a hard time having that block get over it when there are pictures, recordings, and videos of their past actions that will always exist. While they beat their chest about Lincoln freeing the slaves and being a Republican, you have voters today at Republican rallies waving Confederate flags and having rage reactions to confederate statues being removed. You cant circle that corner without fully addressing and admitting that mistake, and that comes at the cost of losing chunks of your base.

Edited August 7, 2020 by StassneyHorn
Christ I have typos

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

51 minutes ago, Texaspython said:

Have you ever considered they’re voting for what they believe is in their best interest?

Sure. This why I said the racism ha to be stamped out from conservative parties. Because you can’t get to issues until You get past that. And 92% of black people don’t think the same. Nor white people. Nor anyone else. 

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Wait, what?  Wasn't Biden's statement a gaffe because it turned African Americans into a monolith?  Isn't that exactly what's going on in this tweet?  Seems like these gaffes cancel each other out, and therefore African Americans can go back to picking whichever one of these they prefer.

[GRHorn 105]

14 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

We really don't need to relitigate this, but the DNC was broke.  Had a man done what Hillary did nobody would have batted an eye.

Are you talking about her emails?

[jimmyjazz 45538]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Are you talking about her emails?

On the off chance you're being serious, no, I'm talking about her "hijacking" the DNC.  She bailed it out financially and that came at a cost to the party.  Standard politics.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

10 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Wait, what?  Wasn't Biden's statement a gaffe because it turned African Americans into a monolith?  Isn't that exactly what's going on in this tweet?  Seems like these gaffes cancel each other out, and therefore African Americans can go back to picking whichever one of these they prefer.

or even more likely, black people can weigh these grains of sand among the other boulders of evidence they have about who has their best interests in mind.