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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

Loco

By Loco
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Dewey

Dewey 3286

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

So the relocation of the center southward makes a possible run at the gulf more likely?

image.thumb.jpeg.63a9b95aa6d05d8abb6309fac6518b8d.jpeg

Its now tracking up the west side of Florida,  none of it good, even if it stays a TS/TD, thats a lot of rain. Nothing they can't handle, but still...

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NorthLoop
NorthLoop
miguelito
miguelito

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

crimsonlonghorn
crimsonlonghorn

Those of us in Houston are so goddam lucky right now. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Lol you guys maybe don't know about Bill Gray at CSU, one of the most important figures in the development the freaking research and knowledge in history, and when you think about it, he must have been smart, because why would you do hurricane research at a coastal college which can be messed up by hurricanes? Your way to the mountains in the middle of the continent, why not?

Anyway, he was a real giant in the field, died in 2016 at age 86.

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gmr548

gmr548 16584

Posted
Posted
Seems this is always the prediction. 

We've had four consecutive above average Atlantic seasons and 2019 was the fourth most active on record, so it's not like it's off base.

 

Edit: CSU last year predicted 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 majors in April forecast. 14-7-2 in its August update. It ended up 18-6-2. So last year's forecast wasn't wildly above average or anything either.

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Hate

Hate 20122

Posted
Posted

It's time to start watching the tropics.

file.php?id=16480&t=1

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Josephine, located a couple of hundred miles northeast of San 
Juan, Puerto Rico.  The National Hurricane Center has issued the 
last advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle, located several hundred 
miles southwest of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

1. A fast-moving tropical wave located about 850 miles east of the 
Windward Islands is producing a small area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms.  This system is expected to move westward at 
about 20 mph during the next few days, and that fast speed is likely 
to limit development while the system approaches the Windward and 
southern Leeward Islands today and Monday and moves across the 
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.  After that time, the system is 
expected to move more slowly westward across the central and western 
Caribbean Sea, and upper-level winds could be conducive for 
development during the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. Another tropical wave located just west of the coast of Africa is 
producing a large area of cloudiness and showers.  This wave is 
forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days, 
and some development will be possible by the middle to latter part 
of the week as environmental conditions become more conducive while 
the system is over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Rip76

Rip76 4946

Posted
Posted

Jeff Linder Tropics update. (08/18)

A pair of tropical waves continues westward. 

97L:

Tropical wave axis has moved into the eastern Caribbean Sea overnight and continues westward at around 20mph. Visible satellite images show a sharp wave axis and scattered deep convection near and around the wave envelop. The fast forward motion is expected to slow in the next 48 hours as 97L reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea. While deterministic model solution are not overly impressed with this wave, several of the CMC and GFS ensemble members continue to show development of 97L has it reaches the western Caribbean Sea this weekend. NHC currently gives 97L a 60% chance of development over the next 5 days.  

 

The steering pattern over the Gulf of Mexico will be complex this weekend as the current trough over the NW Gulf of Mexico slowly begins to weaken and lift northward while a sub-tropical ridge over the southwest Atlantic begins to build westward toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With this steering, if 97L were to develop, it would likely get pulled into the Gulf of Mexico and then slow its forward motion as the steering changes over the Gulf of Mexico from being dominated by a strong and deep trough to greater influences from the sub-tropical ridge. Deterministic and ensemble guidance this morning has significant spread after days 4-5 and has had little consistency on run to run of the models.

 

With this said, 97L will need to be monitored closely for development in the western Caribbean Sea and for a potential movement into the Gulf of Mexico late this weekend.

 

98L: 

A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles SW of the Cape Verde Island is moving slowly westward. This wave is attached to the mid Atlantic ITCZ or monsoon trough currently and in addition has a second tropical wave close to its east. This is a complex tropical cyclone genesis profile and global forecast models have been struggling with how and when 98L develops over the last 24 hours. Little to no development is going to happen as long as 98L is attached to the ITCZ. However once 98L moves away from the ITCZ, development chances increase and NHC currently gives the system a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days.

 

A stout mid level high pressure ridge is in place over the central Atlantic Ocean and this will drive 98L westward over the next 5 days. This ridge is forecast to build westward and should keep the system on a general WNW to W track toward or just north of the Caribbean Islands by this weekend. A stronger, more developed, system will track likely more to the right while a weaker, more shallow system will likely track more leftward. There is a fair amount of uncertainty with 98L both on when and where an actual low level center forms and how strong the system may become in the longer range.  

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Rip76

Rip76 4946

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Calihorn said:

GFS-Para (the upgraded GFS coming soon) has what looks like a major into Houston. (Its kinda hard to tell based on the resolution how strong it exactly is, the pressure is 950 mb which is major strength).

I'll take the bullseye now.

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Dewey

Dewey 3286

Posted
Posted

For 97L

 

If the system strengthens over the next couple of days, it is more likely to be pulled north, into the central Gulf of Mexico, and then toward Louisiana or the Florida panhandle. Under this scenario it could well become a hurricane. If the system remains weaker, it likely plows into the Bay of Campeche, and takes a more westward track into Mexico or South Texas by Monday or Tuesday of next week as more of a rainmaker. Needless to say all of these scenarios are still in play, and considerable uncertainty will likely remain until 97L starts to develop. Matt or myself will be back this afternoon to provide an update on this system, and of course we’ll be with you through the duration.

 

https://spacecityweather.com/hot-and-sunny-through-the-weekend-then-its-up-to-the-tropics/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

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