Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

Sooooo,

The latest Euro model would be a disaster if it comes to pass.  Perhaps a Cat. 4 between Freeport and Galveston (with the worst storm surge on the east side swamping the island and much of League City, Seabrook, LaPorte, ship channel industries, etc.) and still hurricane strength when crossing into SE Oklahoma.

 

al0ltpd.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.thumb.png.3c7

 

The hopeful news is that there is usually variance with model predictions this far out.  So a good chance a bullseye now means a miss in reality.  The not so good news is that the Euro has been the most accurate model for several years.

 

Economically a Cat. 4 storm surge hit in the worst place (eye just west of Galveston) could rival Harvey in cost.  Gas up your car.  

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/images/Texas/TX_Harris_surge.pdf

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/images/Texas/TX_Galveston_surge.pdf

Edited by clapclapclap
Posted
Both the 6z Euro and GFS are back in Louisiana. Because fuck Louisiana. 
I was worked up for about 3 hours overnight with 120 MPH winds in Galveston. 

Same. I’m here in Pearland and 120mph winds wouldn’t diminish much by the time it got here. According to Space City Weather, the stronger Laura gets, the more East the track would go. Hope that stays true.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Posted
7 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

Sooooo,

The latest Euro model would be a disaster if it comes to pass.  Perhaps a Cat. 4 between Freeport and Galveston (with the worst storm surge on the east side swamping the island and much of League City, Seabrook, LaPorte, ship channel industries, etc.) and still hurricane strength when crossing into SE Oklahoma.

 

al0ltpd.png

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.thumb.png.3c7

Lol no. That's dumb af. Even Rita was below TS strength by the time it got into east Texas. 

Posted

image.png.9061af8246bb27ebc85e4ead1378e7f3.png
 

Track guidance provided by NHC. Not super great for Texas:

As a result, the new NHC track 
forecast favors a more southerly and westerly track solution similar to the preponderance of the track guidance. However, the 
new forecast track has not been shifted as far to the left as the consensus models in the event that the models shift back to the 
north. However, the latter scenario is appearing less likely based observed satellite trends since the previous advisory.

 

Posted

That ridge of high pressure is steering it, the further west it sinks the further west Laura shifts from how he explained it rides the outside of that high pressure and then it turns up

Posted
33 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

The 12z GFS is pretty much unchanged still going into Calcasieu as strong Cat 1. Now for the Euro in about an hour. 

GFS has Laura further north than her actual location. Euro will be interesting to see. 

Posted

1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED 
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of 
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

Posted
7 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Travis Herzog’s update an hour ago comparing Laura to the Great Hurricane of 1900

 

uhhhhhhhh?

Similar track and time of year as the 1900 Galveston cane. Meteorologists have a weird habit of trying to compare the storm they are currently looking at to a past storm.

Posted

So I rented a house on Jamaica Beach starting Monday. If I went down there and decided to skip town Wednesday morning, what’s the traffic situation gonna look like trying to get back to Houston. Rita-style parking lots? Rush hour on the Katy Freeway?

Posted
27 minutes ago, Hanrahan said:

So I rented a house on Jamaica Beach starting Monday. If I went down there and decided to skip town Wednesday morning, what’s the traffic situation gonna look like trying to get back to Houston. Rita-style parking lots? Rush hour on the Katy 

stay where you are, hoping others with rentals will do the same

Posted

I powered up the generator and let it run for a while to make sure it still works.  It had been a while since the last time I started it so I was a little concerned it wouldn't start. It fired up on the second pull and ran like a champ.  I'll fill up my gas can later in the week if I need to.  I'm pretty stocked up on food for a while (canned stuff).  I may make one last run Tuesday or Wednesday just to get a few things (wine for the wife), but we are pretty much ready if Laura decides to come through here. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Hanrahan said:

So I rented a house on Jamaica Beach starting Monday. If I went down there and decided to skip town Wednesday morning, what’s the traffic situation gonna look like trying to get back to Houston. Rita-style parking lots? Rush hour on the Katy Freeway?

You’ll have plenty of time to leave if you’re ready to go Wednesday morning. 

Posted

Evac. Question.

If this cranks up more than say, a 2.  I may roll up, living in Friendswood.  My son and I usually take a trip to visit my cousin in South Padre every year, and we weren't able to do that this year.  I may use this for the vacation.  

My question is:  If I don't want to go ALL the way up to 59, what is the best route to take from Friendswood on 35?  And where is the best cut over to 59 by Victoria?

TIA.

 

 

Posted
Evac. Question.
If this cranks up more than say, a 2.  I may roll up, living in Friendswood.  My son and I usually take a trip to visit my cousin in South Padre every year, and we weren't able to do that this year.  I may use this for the vacation.  
My question is:  If I don't want to go ALL the way up to 59, what is the best route to take from Friendswood on 35?  And where is the best cut over to 59 by Victoria?
TIA.
 
 

I’d take Texas 35 to Bay City and then cut over on 2431 at Markham to midfield and take 111 to Edna. That is if you want to go 59.
Posted
Just now, Patricio Swayze said:


I’d take Texas 35 to Bay City and then cut over on 2431 at Markham to midfield and take 111 to Edna. That is if you want to go 59.

Thank you sir.

Yeah I don’t want to take 35 all the way. 

Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Maybe someone here knows? Why does twc have 3 spaghetti modes sliding west towards Houston with only one heading towards New Orleans for Marco?

A lot of the models have Marco getting completely crushed by shear and dissipating in the gulf, which mean what's left of Marco slides west.

Edited by Calihorn
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
You’ll have plenty of time to leave if you’re ready to go Wednesday morning. 


Thank you. I’m tracking the storms and will know when to leave but if there’s a chance of 45 turning into a parking lot near the coast I don’t want to mess with it. Options are cancel the whole thing or head down tomorrow and skip back to Houston Wednesday morning if it’s heading our direction. I’d prefer the latter but don’t want to get caught up in a clogged evacuation if that’s what happens in these situations.
Posted

Excessive heat and rain. Very nice.

I'm sure getting up to I10 will be OK but who knows after that. I think after all the storms the past decade or so people are less likely to evacuate especially with lesser winds and storm surge.

Posted
Excessive heat and rain. Very nice.

I'm sure getting up to I10 will be OK but who knows after that. I think after all the storms the past decade or so people are less likely to evacuate especially with lesser winds and storm surge.


Well, I would be evacuating to Houston so that would work.
Posted
1 hour ago, Hanrahan said:

 


Thank you. I’m tracking the storms and will know when to leave but if there’s a chance of 45 turning into a parking lot near the coast I don’t want to mess with it. Options are cancel the whole thing or head down tomorrow and skip back to Houston Wednesday morning if it’s heading our direction. I’d prefer the latter but don’t want to get caught up in a clogged evacuation if that’s what happens in these situations.

 

I’m not saying Ike went perfectly, but I think a lot of lessons were learned after Rita. Like, if you live in the woodlands (as one of many examples), don’t evacuate.

Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Looks like Houston is getting a right cross and then an uppercut 

lol was bout to say the same

please don't hit west of gtown Laura. lawd. 

Edited by staboner
Posted

Watching the Weather Channel and the reading the most current forecast from the National Weather Service/Hurricane center you wonder what TWC is smoking. People, ignore TwC and read the updates at weather.gov.

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...