2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

[Gatorubet 30209]

I think it's fair to say that no one has any idea where the fuck Marco is going.

Motherfuckers. I got my generator ready early. That normally means no storms for the year.

[justhookit 4191]

3 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I got about an inch in less than an hour yesterday and another 0.5 inches today in the heights

He sounds hideous small.

[clapclapclap 9000]

Sooooo,

The latest Euro model would be a disaster if it comes to pass.  Perhaps a Cat. 4 between Freeport and Galveston (with the worst storm surge on the east side swamping the island and much of League City, Seabrook, LaPorte, ship channel industries, etc.) and still hurricane strength when crossing into SE Oklahoma.

 

 

The hopeful news is that there is usually variance with model predictions this far out.  So a good chance a bullseye now means a miss in reality.  The not so good news is that the Euro has been the most accurate model for several years.

 

Economically a Cat. 4 storm surge hit in the worst place (eye just west of Galveston) could rival Harvey in cost.  Gas up your car.  

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/images/Texas/TX_Harris_surge.pdf

https://maps.redcross.org/website/maps/images/Texas/TX_Galveston_surge.pdf

Edited August 23, 2020 by clapclapclap

[clapclapclap 9000]

The other good news:  A direct hit from Hurricane Laura may mean the Astros win the World Series again.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Aw fuck man. Aw fuckity fuck. The eye of the Euro goes right over Galveston County with 120+ MPH winds. So totally 2020. 

 

 

Edited August 23, 2020 by crimsonlonghorn

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Dnaguy 11943]

12 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

 

 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Both the 6z Euro and GFS are back in Louisiana. Because fuck Louisiana. 

I was worked up for about 3 hours overnight with 120 MPH winds in Galveston. 

[BabaBooey 131]

Both the 6z Euro and GFS are back in Louisiana. Because fuck Louisiana. 
I was worked up for about 3 hours overnight with 120 MPH winds in Galveston. 

Same. I’m here in Pearland and 120mph winds wouldn’t diminish much by the time it got here. According to Space City Weather, the stronger Laura gets, the more East the track would go. Hope that stays true.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Dnaguy 11943]

Want the rain....

Do not want storm surge, flooding, and wind....

Marco will be enough, thanks.

[NorthLoop 14190]

7 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

Sooooo,

The latest Euro model would be a disaster if it comes to pass.  Perhaps a Cat. 4 between Freeport and Galveston (with the worst storm surge on the east side swamping the island and much of League City, Seabrook, LaPorte, ship channel industries, etc.) and still hurricane strength when crossing into SE Oklahoma.

 

Lol no. That's dumb af. Even Rita was below TS strength by the time it got into east Texas. 

[UTexasFight 9431]

8 hours ago, Redpuma said:

 

 

[Telegraph_it 3357]

 

Track guidance provided by NHC. Not super great for Texas:

As a result, the new NHC track 
forecast favors a more southerly and westerly track solution similar to the preponderance of the track guidance. However, the 
new forecast track has not been shifted as far to the left as the consensus models in the event that the models shift back to the 
north. However, the latter scenario is appearing less likely based observed satellite trends since the previous advisory.

 

[clapclapclap 9000]

3 hours later:

[UTexasFight 9431]

Live look at NHC:

 

[utee94 15811]

[BrickTop 477]

Like Levi said, if it passes south of Cuba the track favors Texas, north of Cuba Louisiana, apparently it’s all about the “launch point”

[BrickTop 477]

That ridge of high pressure is steering it, the further west it sinks the further west Laura shifts from how he explained it rides the outside of that high pressure and then it turns up

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

The 12z GFS is pretty much unchanged still going into Calcasieu as strong Cat 1. Now for the Euro in about an hour. 

[Telegraph_it 3357]

33 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

The 12z GFS is pretty much unchanged still going into Calcasieu as strong Cat 1. Now for the Euro in about an hour. 

GFS has Laura further north than her actual location. Euro will be interesting to see. 

[tokamak 6410]

So the consensus right now is that Marco ain’t shit but Laura is Ike 2.0? Great.

[GreenspointTexas 9600]

Travis Herzog’s update an hour ago comparing Laura to the Great Hurricane of 1900

 

uhhhhhhhh?

Edited August 23, 2020 by GreenspointTexas

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[Zonahorn 8079]

1130 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2020

...MARCO BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED 
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate 
that Marco has strengthened into a hurricane with maximum winds of 
75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts.

[Zonahorn 8079]

7 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Travis Herzog’s update an hour ago comparing Laura to the Great Hurricane of 1900

 

uhhhhhhhh?

Similar track and time of year as the 1900 Galveston cane. Meteorologists have a weird habit of trying to compare the storm they are currently looking at to a past storm.

[RPM 26318]

[Hanrahan 1306]

So I rented a house on Jamaica Beach starting Monday. If I went down there and decided to skip town Wednesday morning, what’s the traffic situation gonna look like trying to get back to Houston. Rita-style parking lots? Rush hour on the Katy Freeway?

[Dewey 3286]

27 minutes ago, Hanrahan said:

So I rented a house on Jamaica Beach starting Monday. If I went down there and decided to skip town Wednesday morning, what’s the traffic situation gonna look like trying to get back to Houston. Rita-style parking lots? Rush hour on the Katy 

stay where you are, hoping others with rentals will do the same

[Hate 20108]

I powered up the generator and let it run for a while to make sure it still works.  It had been a while since the last time I started it so I was a little concerned it wouldn't start. It fired up on the second pull and ran like a champ.  I'll fill up my gas can later in the week if I need to.  I'm pretty stocked up on food for a while (canned stuff).  I may make one last run Tuesday or Wednesday just to get a few things (wine for the wife), but we are pretty much ready if Laura decides to come through here. 

[UT_OB1 2218]

1 hour ago, Hanrahan said:

So I rented a house on Jamaica Beach starting Monday. If I went down there and decided to skip town Wednesday morning, what’s the traffic situation gonna look like trying to get back to Houston. Rita-style parking lots? Rush hour on the Katy Freeway?

You’ll have plenty of time to leave if you’re ready to go Wednesday morning. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

GFS has Laura further north than her actual location. Euro will be interesting to see. 

Euro is back over Morgan City now as a tropical storm. Dang. Make up your minds.  

[Rip76 4925]

Evac. Question.

If this cranks up more than say, a 2.  I may roll up, living in Friendswood.  My son and I usually take a trip to visit my cousin in South Padre every year, and we weren't able to do that this year.  I may use this for the vacation.  

My question is:  If I don't want to go ALL the way up to 59, what is the best route to take from Friendswood on 35?  And where is the best cut over to 59 by Victoria?

TIA.

 

 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Evac. Question.
If this cranks up more than say, a 2.  I may roll up, living in Friendswood.  My son and I usually take a trip to visit my cousin in South Padre every year, and we weren't able to do that this year.  I may use this for the vacation.  
My question is:  If I don't want to go ALL the way up to 59, what is the best route to take from Friendswood on 35?  And where is the best cut over to 59 by Victoria?
TIA.
 
 

I’d take Texas 35 to Bay City and then cut over on 2431 at Markham to midfield and take 111 to Edna. That is if you want to go 59.

[Rip76 4925]

Just now, Patricio Swayze said:

I’d take Texas 35 to Bay City and then cut over on 2431 at Markham to midfield and take 111 to Edna. That is if you want to go 59.

Thank you sir.

Yeah I don’t want to take 35 all the way. 

[BrickTop 477]

Maybe someone here knows? Why does twc have 3 spaghetti modes sliding west towards Houston with only one heading towards New Orleans for Marco?

[Zonahorn 8079]

15 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

Maybe someone here knows? Why does twc have 3 spaghetti modes sliding west towards Houston with only one heading towards New Orleans for Marco?

A lot of the models have Marco getting completely crushed by shear and dissipating in the gulf, which mean what's left of Marco slides west.

Edited August 23, 2020 by Calihorn

[Hanrahan 1306]

You’ll have plenty of time to leave if you’re ready to go Wednesday morning. 

Thank you. I’m tracking the storms and will know when to leave but if there’s a chance of 45 turning into a parking lot near the coast I don’t want to mess with it. Options are cancel the whole thing or head down tomorrow and skip back to Houston Wednesday morning if it’s heading our direction. I’d prefer the latter but don’t want to get caught up in a clogged evacuation if that’s what happens in these situations.

[Neonmoon 38129]

Excessive Heat sounds fun.

[DCA_HORN 725]

Excessive heat and rain. Very nice.

I'm sure getting up to I10 will be OK but who knows after that. I think after all the storms the past decade or so people are less likely to evacuate especially with lesser winds and storm surge.

[Message Board User 12395]

 

 

[Hanrahan 1306]

Excessive heat and rain. Very nice.

I'm sure getting up to I10 will be OK but who knows after that. I think after all the storms the past decade or so people are less likely to evacuate especially with lesser winds and storm surge.

Well, I would be evacuating to Houston so that would work.

[Enchubben 5510]

14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Excessive Heat sounds fun.

Giant penis heading towards Lake Erie. Cause for concern?

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

Not much change in latest, maybe a little east shift. 

 

 

[UT_OB1 2218]

1 hour ago, Hanrahan said:

 

Thank you. I’m tracking the storms and will know when to leave but if there’s a chance of 45 turning into a parking lot near the coast I don’t want to mess with it. Options are cancel the whole thing or head down tomorrow and skip back to Houston Wednesday morning if it’s heading our direction. I’d prefer the latter but don’t want to get caught up in a clogged evacuation if that’s what happens in these situations.

 

I’m not saying Ike went perfectly, but I think a lot of lessons were learned after Rita. Like, if you live in the woodlands (as one of many examples), don’t evacuate.

[Message Board User 12395]

The remnants of Marco headed straight for...Austin?

Edited August 23, 2020 by Message Board User

[Neonmoon 38129]

Looks like Houston is getting a right cross and then an uppercut 

[staboner 4969]

31 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Looks like Houston is getting a right cross and then an uppercut 

lol was bout to say the same

please don't hit west of gtown Laura. lawd. 

Edited August 23, 2020 by staboner

[Rip76 4925]

2 hours ago, Message Board User said:

The remnants of Marco headed straight for...Austin?

There won't be much left by that time.

[HouTex 1866]

Watching the Weather Channel and the reading the most current forecast from the National Weather Service/Hurricane center you wonder what TWC is smoking. People, ignore TwC and read the updates at weather.gov.