2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

[Hagbard Celine 10,853]

https://www.omao.noaa.gov/learn/aircraft-operations/about/hurricane-hunters\

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N42RF

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N43RF

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N49RF

[Rip76 4,925]

Just now, HouTex said:

Watching the Weather Channel and the reading the most current forecast from the National Weather Service/Hurricane center you wonder what TWC is smoking. People, ignore TwC and read the updates at weather.gov.

Correct

[Helobious 9,448]

Does Florida ever get hit by storms anymore? Seems every one slams TX/LA/MS nowadays. 

[Zonahorn 8,079]

Just now, Helobious said:

Does Florida ever get hit by storms anymore? Seems every one slams TX/LA/MS nowadays. 

They got hit by category 5 Michael in 2018 and category 4 Irma in 2017

[Hagbard Celine 10,853]

is calamity directly proportional to twc ad revenue?

[phdhorn 6,224]

So now it looks like the 'canes are flipping a little bit, now Laura is heading more West while Marcos goes more East. Marco looks to stay around 1 or mild 2 range while Laura could get to a 3 or even a 4. I'm more worried about Laura as a bad storm than Marcod.

<sigh> that's per usual, looking like Austin will be on the west side of these things which means nothing but more heat as the hurricane pulls in hot dry air from the southwest over us.

However, I'm keeping an eye on Laura especially.

Edited August 23, 2020 by phdhorn

[rage-a-holic 4,382]

We dodged a bullet in Cozumel but Marcos left us some nice sunsets.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,091]

More pics of chics!

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

5 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Euro is back over Morgan City now as a tropical storm. Dang. Make up your minds.  

I missed this tweet from earlier. 
 

 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

That looks south of Cuba...which is bad. 

[Brew 3,049]

Glad this shifted off of us, feel horrible for those that are going to be impacted. It’s such a shitty time of the year. You hope for a miss, but for every miss some neighbor down the road gets hammered because you got skipped this time. It f-ing sucks and we’re just getting started.

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

18z Euro run. Not an ensemble just one solution. Still shows East. 
 

 For comparison then HWRF goes full apocalyptic:

 

So we have no idea at the moment. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

Furk.Guess I'm going to spend the day tomorrow working my ass off and sweating to get ready just to be sure that it really will miss us. 

Recognize that the Euro solution might just be an initialization error, but I hope it turns out to be right. 

 

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89,647]

21 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Recognize that the Euro solution might just be an initialization error, but I hope it turns out to be right. 

Or they don't know what two systems will do to each other in that situation.  Uncharted territory and all.

 

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

Or they don't know what two systems will do to each other in that situation.  Uncharted territory and all.

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

All of the models this morning have it going into Louisiana Wednesday evening as Cat 1, but the 6z HMON now wants to try out the worst case scenario for Houston on Thursday morning.

We will know by the end of the day today.  

EDIT: We will know BETTER... lol

Edited August 24, 2020 by crimsonlonghorn

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

Not all of the models. I still don’t feel comfortable yet. That HMON is like worst case scenario. UKMET shows something similar. 

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

Also. Saw this interesting graphic posted somewhere. The wind field from Ike. Definitely don’t want Laura west of where Ike hit. 
 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

1 hour ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

We will know by the end of the day today.  

Bullshit.

[tokamak 6,411]

I was ready to panic right along with everyone else a couple days ago but Houston ain’t even gonna end up seeing raindrops from this thing.

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

Euro going west again. Supposedly this one initialized better. 
 

[Telegraph_it 3,357]

And the ensembles moved west for the euro. 
 

[Hate 20,108]

I was just about to post that as well. I believe that track may make it a little bit stronger as well. H-town could be proper fucked here soon.

[GreenspointTexas 9,600]

Sooooooo RIP Victoria?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

[Hate 20,108]

Sooooooo RIP Victoria?

On that track, it would be RIP Bay City and Sargent.

[GreenspointTexas 9,600]

9 minutes ago, Hate said:

On that track, it would be RIP Bay City and Sargent.

Yup

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

If it's going to go further west, then by God go WEST and get all the way to Matagorda and Port Lavaca. Anything between there and Galveston is bad news. 

Guess I better start packing up this afternoon. Dammit. 

[lonestarsooner 121]

Hate and I live in the same neighborhood in The Woodlands. Don’t worry. I’ve got this. Got the generator out yesterday. Haven’t fired it up in too long. Carburetor all junked up. Ordered a new one that will be here today. I’ll get it running tonight. All the work to make sure the generator is working will make sure it stays east of us and we don’t need it. You’re welcome in advance. 🤣

[Lobwedgephil 1,139]

Euro is a nightmare scenario for Houston, but I need to see it do it a couple of runs in a row first. I do expect another shift west from NHC at 10. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

3 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

Euro is a nightmare scenario for Houston, but I need to see it do it a couple of runs in a row first. I do expect another shift west from NHC at 10. 

Agreed with this but the Euro isn't an outlier. Will be interesting to see what the GFS does in a couple of hours. 

UKMET takes it even further south, which might be what Houston needs and all we can hope for. 

[HoustonFrog 368]

Even if it goes 30 miles west of Houston, isn’t that bad? That will put Houston on the bad side of the hurricane? And it’s expected to turn northeast once it hits land, thus back into Houston. Would need to go all the way to Corpus to spare Houston

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

17 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Even if it goes 30 miles west of Houston, isn’t that bad? That will put Houston on the bad side of the hurricane? And it’s expected to turn northeast once it hits land, thus back into Houston. Would need to go all the way to Corpus to spare Houston

At least Matagorda for sure. Not sure about all the way to Corpus, but yeah, 30 miles won't make a difference. Would have to be 60-100 miles. In fact, just slightly west could make it worse since the worst winds would be east of the center, so under this track those would be somewhat over Galveston and the bay and into Liberty County which is less populated. 30 miles west and those winds are over Fort Bend and western Harris and Montgomery Counties.

30 miles west would be good for the Ship Channel and eastern Harris, though. 

Edited August 24, 2020 by crimsonlonghorn

[Hate 20,108]

Just out of curiosity, has anyone ever tried to hurricane proof a trampoline or is it just understood they are going to fly off?

[Dry Elbows 142]

NHC still isn't moving it west. 

[HoustonFrog 368]

NHC still isn't moving it west. 

Good news for Houston. A little strange considering everything is moving west but whatever. Still most likely it goes straight up the TX/La border

[tx 3 putt 76,905]

So Marco is pushing it further West ?

[Hate 20,108]

There is a ridge of high pressure over the SE US right now which is why both Marco and Laura have stayed over the western half of the Gulf Coast.  The NHC is expecting that ridge of high pressure to weaken a little allowing Laura to turn more N/NE once she is in the GOM and close to making landfall.  It all depends on the strength of that ridge and it is not something they will likely know for sure until tomorrow. 

Edited August 24, 2020 by Hate

[smuggs 9,353]

Getting prepped in Lake Charles. Awesome sunset last night. Laura - you dick!

 

 

 

 

[pearlandhorn 3,269]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

So Marco is pushing it further West ?

Marco is pulling the high pressure system that is over the SE US more towards the west, allowing the "alley" to move west.  I think the thought is that if Marco fizzles out over LA, it won't pull the alley that much more west, moving the storm up through Louisiana and away from Houston.

[BradInATX 9,208]

Getting prepped in Lake Charles. Awesome sunset last night. Laura - you dick!
 


 
 
 

Solid retaining wall work

[UTexasFight 9,431]

26 minutes ago, Hate said:

Just out of curiosity, has anyone ever tried to hurricane proof a trampoline or is it just understood they are going to fly off?

Tramps in trees!!!

[crimsonlonghorn 2,306]

28 minutes ago, Hate said:

Just out of curiosity, has anyone ever tried to hurricane proof a trampoline or is it just understood they are going to fly off?

Turn it over and tie it down on opposite sides to something sturdy? That's all I can think of. 

[austingirl 2,191]

Saw this in a Dave Barry column back in the day. Someone needs to make a 2020 version.

[Hate 20,108]

I’m thinking about getting some stakes and trying to secure it that way, but if we get the 100+ MPH wind gusts that model was showing I’m not sure there is anything I can do to keep it in my yard.

[smuggs 9,353]

I've got corkscrew stakes with straps holding mine down but I'm not holding my breath. I told the kids to get a good jump on it this morning.

Make sure you run the straps all the way up to the frame (not the bottom of the legs).

 

 

 

[UTexasFight 9,431]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

I’m thinking about getting some stakes and trying to secure it that way, but if we get the 100+ MPH wind gusts that model was showing I’m not sure there is anything I can do to keep it in my yard.

Yeah, I’d get a rope and just hoist it in to your preferred spot in the nearest tree.

[Jiggy-Z 3,432]

5 minutes ago, smuggs said:

I've got corkscrew stakes with straps holding mine down but I'm not holding my breath. I told the kids to get a good jump on it this morning.

Make sure you run the straps all the way up to the frame (not the bottom of the legs).

 

 

 

1. Completely disassemble.

2. Store in cool dry place for duration of the storm.

3. Put  on CL in a sellers market

4. Profit.

5. Tell kids it was irreparably damaged in storm and they are not getting a new one due to their failure to properly secure.

6. Reclaim trampoline area with fire pit and some lawn furniture.

7.  Relax with an ice cold juice or beer.

[tejas60 3,533]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

On that track, it would be RIP Bay City and Sargent.

bring it on. my body's ready.

[Hate 20,108]

I've got corkscrew stakes with straps holding mine down but I'm not holding my breath. I told the kids to get a good jump on it this morning.
Make sure you run the straps all the way up to the frame (not the bottom of the legs).
 

 
 

I just ordered some of these through Amazon. They were supposed to arrive Thursday. I’m hoping that will be enough to cause Laura to head a little East, but it’s more likely I just doomed us all and my son’s trampoline will end up in Conroe somewhere.