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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

Loco

By Loco
in Daily Texan

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NorthLoop
NorthLoop
miguelito
miguelito

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

crimsonlonghorn
crimsonlonghorn

Those of us in Houston are so goddam lucky right now. 

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Bert Orange

Bert Orange 1120

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, justhookit said:

2:08 was 6 hours ago? Where’s my beer?

6am cst

12 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:


I thought that’s the 12z euro?

6am cst

9 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

This is the most current EPS. 

Correct, but the global hurricane models initialized at noon tell a very different story.

 

Not saying any of this means shit right now. 

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After irth

After irth 1243

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Calihorn said:

They got hit by category 5 Michael in 2018 and category 4 Irma in 2017

Fucking eye of Irma went right over my goddam house.  I know that because I was there.  "Hurricane-proof house" and all that.  Spent a week without power.  No damage at all.  Lost $100 worth of groceries and $500 in wine.  Oddly, FEMA didn't seem to give a shit about that.  My utility bill rocked that month, though.

Drove through Michael's damage the morning after (when they were still mobilizing to clean IH-10 and all the side roads) on our move back to TX.  That was a long fucking day.

I live in the East Texas Piney Woods now.  First time in my life I've not had to worry about having storm shutters.

Edited by After irth
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heinhorn

heinhorn 16

Posted
Posted

The space city weather guys have the most confidence in the UKMET which I think is the blue line above.

 

Quote

What does the 12z data show? Several models have made slight adjustments eastward today, but the most significant movement has come from the UKMET model, produced by the United Kingdom. This is not the world’s best global forecast model, but it is competitive, and something we often look at. In the case of Laura, it has had some of the best performance to date since tracking began a few days. This meant we have weighted it a little bit higher for this storm.

One of the things that has concerned us is that the UKMET, although an outlier, had been frequently bringing Laura to the central or upper Texas coast. This would have placed Houston, Galveston, and the upper Texas coast on the powerful right side of the storm. However, in a just released run of the model, the storm’s landfall location has made a sizable jump east, from near Corpus Christi to the Texas-Louisiana border

 

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted (edited)

Joe Bastardi's post this afternoon (paywalled)

Spoiler
Joe Bastardi 
Aug 24 2020
The Battle of the Ensembles

You dont get a much more high risk forecast than this. The Euro ensembles are very much open to the ultimate hit on Houston, The Galveston hurricane of 1900 moved west northwest for a time after landfall

Screen_Shot_2020_08_24_at_4_29_48_PM.png

 

The Euro has many members hitting from the SE or SSE in about the same place, but moving right up Galveston bay as a major hurricane, The control is a bit further west, The Operational is back to BPT. 

The potential for the worst case is enough that I will say that in a career that started really with Alicia in 1983 as far southeast Texas goes, this is the most difficult forecast I have ever had. One may say, what about Rita? It was a monster 2 days away, you knew it would be bad. What about Ike? Ike was much easier and actually inspired the power and impact scale. But both were big storms, Both hit off their peak. This is not going to hit off its peak and if its peak is a major in the middle of that ensemble spread on the euro

ecmwf_bufr_laura13l_1598270400_8270400.p

That would be devastating, Notice also off the east coast, some stronger phased members on the way out, but its Houston that the real problems as far as population weighted density and economic considerations that is the big problem here.

The GFS ensembles are further east

gfs_ensemble_laura13l_1598270400_8270400

 

The models have had a north bias, as symptom of 2 things Bob Case and Gil Clark taught me. Weaker storms tend to move more west, which is now common knowledge of course but back in the 1980s it was not as prevalent, 2) Building ridges allow a 10-15 degree left shift, weakening ridges the opposite, The ridge builds north of this into Wed then starts its demise, The GFS bias over the years has been to recurve storms too fast. So there is my concern, that the euro will score the coup here ( or perhaps given history, it east its the GFS that scores it)

But it is about as worrisome a set up as I have seen, A track to the east of GLS bay would even if only by 30 miles would be a much different result than over or the same distance west. Those tall buildings are canyons and a 120 mph hurricane would have much higher winds between those buildings, not to mention a storm surge up GLS bay, I am inclined to be further west than NHC, but I cant figure out how much from this point, But the potential here for the worst case is moderate to high IMO. 

 

The scariest thing, and this is no knock on NHC, is that if the same error bias continues on track just a point of fact

Screen_Shot_2020_08_24_at_3_02_01_PM(1).

 

154444_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

that would put the storm right at the midpoint of the Euro package and the worst case. This has to be an immense weight on them, since I am only responsible for clients and have very limited outlets, but they have the welfare of millions to deal with, Somehow the words of Neil Frank and his humility in the days he was director echo louder with me each day

 

 

I always knew being a meteorologist was a high pressure job. No wonder so many of us get a cold drink at the ISObar

 

Edited by crimsonlonghorn
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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11819

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I've got 2.5 months' worth of gas in my tank.  Let 'em freak the fuck out.

I’ve just decided, after that “crisis” that I nonchalantly dismissed before it happened and ended up being sorry, and the more recent toilet paper covid crisis, I’m not underestimating the dumbassery again.  I filled my truck up today while I was grabbing groceries.   Based on the last few months I should be good for four to six weeks on a full tank.

Edited by Judge Roybeanbag
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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21829

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, JimmyTwoTimes said:

Joe Bastardi is the Shock Jock of mets. He could be correct of course. He has also called for epic cold winters for the past 20 years. If he gets its right, he gets to say “I told you guys”. 

Not sure why you listen to anyone other than Frankie MacDonald.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89628

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

My wife and I thought we'd be cute and do this during Rita. Got all the way to Grand Parkway 99 and they had closed 59 and all of the other roads to southbound traffic so as to facilitate evacuees coming up from Brazoria County. We were forced onto Grand Parkway back towards I-10 and hit stop and go traffic around 1093 (now the Westpark tollway). We eventually ended up going west on 529 to Bellville at about 10 miles an hour and made it to Austin about 12 hours later. 

Now that I live down here and know the back roads we might have been able to get around the closures and past Rosenberg, but at the time it was frustrating as hell to get turned around like that. 

Had some relatives heading to Austin from Sugar Land, and took like 14 hours or something.

Had in-laws from Missouri City head towards Rosenberg and get out past Rosenberg and then head towards Austin, and made it here in 5 hours.  But they got held up by northbound traffic for some long periods of time.

They liked the Rosenberg route, because after sharing notes with other relatives who came straight to Austin/Dallas, they had a shorter travel time, and they had a lot of little towns they came across frequently, which meant gas stations, food, etc. fairly close by. Other relatives heading straight for Dallas or Austin found themselves parked or crawling with no little towns or anything in sight, or when they did come across something, completely sold out.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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