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Posted
18 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Anytime you are in Beaumont, you shouldn't be feeling that great.

Two aggies were on a first date.   At the end of the date the aggy co-ed said kiss me where its hot and stinky.   So he drove her to Beaumont.   

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Posted
We weren’t here yet for Ike but I got a buddy says he was without power for 19 days. I can’t stress enough how unappealing that sounds.
I dont get how you coasties don't have a generator. People in Kentucky invest in meth labs. West Virginia they have 30k polaris side by sides. Yall should have 5k for a generator yes? WTF man. Yall know its coming living on the coast.
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Posted
6 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Someone at Bush Intercontinental Airport needs to page Jim Cantore.

Cantore is a beating....And as far as Intercontinental, Laura can please spare it. Flying through there Thursday evening to Cancun to visit my daughter (no pics) and first newborn grandchild.

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Posted
We weren’t here yet for Ike but I got a buddy says he was without power for 19 days. I can’t stress enough how unappealing that sounds.


I was without power for two weeks in the Heights. When the sun came up I took a look around and it took me about ten minutes in the heat to decide to head to Austin. No traffic at all.
Posted (edited)

00z GFS is still going in right at Calcasieu, not really that strong. The only real outlier in location and intensity is the Euro and its ensembles. Everything is is Cat 1-2 into the TX/LA border. 

image.thumb.png.9067b7cf6c48a8a5c4bd7b9238d7b1b9.png

image.thumb.png.1514af87830932c98bf17c4d52e33ce5.png

 

Edited by crimsonlonghorn
Posted
48 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Why has nobody suggested that @Hate tie a note to his trampoline with his address so he can see how far it flies in the storm and who ended up with it?

giphy.gif

Posted
Anytime you are in Beaumont, you shouldn't be feeling that great.

Beaumont is awesome 10 months of the year.

 

Mandatory Jefferson County evacuation. Headed to Leander for my wife's sanity, she will simply lose her shit sitting in a boarded up house listening to the wind moan and shriek. She has that special kinda SE TX PTSD leftover from Ike and Rita.

 

Might as well head to my buddy's, he's got the new outdoor kitchen.

 

My elderly parents refuse to leave. Earlier today I said "get your ass in the car and go" and they declined.

 

Boarding up the house in the AM then skidaddling.

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

00z GFS is still going in right at Calcasieu, not really that strong. The only real outlier in location and intensity is the Euro and its ensembles. Everything is is Cat 1-2 into the TX/LA border. 

image.thumb.png.9067b7cf6c48a8a5c4bd7b9238d7b1b9.png

image.thumb.png.1514af87830932c98bf17c4d52e33ce5.png

 

I'm cool with that.

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Posted (edited)

Latest euro run. At this point it’s just too close. Wobbles could make a huge difference for Houston and Galveston. 

Oh Lord GIF by memecandy
 

I am only posting euro because it has now been west or in the western portion of NHC’s cone for two (or three) runs.   

image.thumb.jpeg.1ccb37dcfd5116dd9b425a2d99dd11aa.jpeg
image.thumb.jpeg.c89a24627c6e7feb452008074cd12e79.jpeg

Edited by Telegraph_it
Posted
5 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

Both. Euro went west again and has pressure around 940. 

Yes. So I should be getting my COO Thursday from my new build after Harvey. It’s appropriate that it’s exactly 3 years later to the day. If this thing comes anywhere near me I’m going to blame @SydneyCarton and then @closetojumping for bugging out of this site and not keeping the idiots inline. Also, you need to lose some weight. Famous last words but it looks like we are good here in Port A and I’m sticking with my landfall right on the LA/TX border. Y’all peeps in Houston stay safe.

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Posted
Cantore is a beating....And as far as Intercontinental, Laura can please spare it. Flying through there Thursday evening to Cancun to visit my daughter (no pics) and first newborn grandchild.
Doubtful
Posted
7 hours ago, markstanco said:
9 hours ago, tokamak said:
We weren’t here yet for Ike but I got a buddy says he was without power for 19 days. I can’t stress enough how unappealing that sounds.

I dont get how you coasties don't have a generator. People in Kentucky invest in meth labs. West Virginia they have 30k polaris side by sides. Yall should have 5k for a generator yes? WTF man. Yall know its coming living on the coast.

I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.

for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 

Posted
I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.
for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 
Ignorance on generators here, but those 20k watt Generac units advertised at Sams Club won't run an AC unit? They say whole home, but maybe not running lights AND ac at the same time. No idea.
Posted
1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

All the weather people in Houston started freaking out at about 2 AM.  Looks like a cat 4 straight into Galveston Bay

Yep. Woke up to it about 5:30 and it's off the charts. The NHC track is only slightly further west and the Euro is still east of Galveston, and the GFS and American hurricane models are still in Jefferson County, but the Houston media is in full bore panic mode now. Meteorologist I used to work with many years ago was pretty insistent yesterday that it's a Louisiana storm. I'm curious to hear his take today, but yesterday he said they always correct back to the east - see Ike and Rita - and this one will too. He said if it were currently forecast into Matagorda, THAT'S when Houston is at the most risk of a surprise landfall (which is exactly what happened with Ike). 

I'm at least now probably going to have to spend the day moving everything inside the barn and garage and start tying stuff down. Waiting to see the 6z Euro and the 8AM advisory. If both of those are further west, then I'll start to be a little more concerned. 

 

Posted

NHC had this in their latest forecast discussion:

The new NHC prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since 
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments 
could be required later today.  
Posted

I gotta say, I thought y’all were some wishcasting assholes that kept posting the one model showing it going west to Houston. 

Turns out you were most certainly correct. I will tell you most Houstonians are much less prepared for this one than others, as we all assumed these were both going to Louisiana based on all the mainstream weather predictions.

Posted (edited)

6z Euro almost exactly the same as the 00z. Borderline Cat 3 coming in over Chambers County. ~60 MPH gusts over downtown. Very tight wind gradient over the ship channel. 

Baytown and Anahuac get hammered. Golden Triangle isn't much better. But from a "lack of people between Houston and Beaumont" standpoint, going right over the east side of the bay would probably be the least bad scenario. 

image.thumb.png.45e87d2a84df6495e861d1c54394d715.png

image.thumb.png.31af05f5f412cc51f7a9b9871f242d66.png

 

 

Edited by crimsonlonghorn
Posted
30 minutes ago, markstanco said:
1 hour ago, tejas60 said:
I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.
for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 

Ignorance on generators here, but those 20k watt Generac units advertised at Sams Club won't run an AC unit? They say whole home, but maybe not running lights AND ac at the same time. No idea.

Only way to know for sure is for a home survey.  That said, my Generac 22KW will run everything, including AC.  Operation is seemless with a 3 second lapse before it kicks on after the power goes.

I got fed up with extension cords and humping gasoline to my old 5.5KW which did not support much beyond fridge, freezer, and some small draw appliances.

Posted
4 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

6z Euro almost exactly the same as the 00z. Borderline Cat 3 coming in over Chambers County. ~60 MPH gusts over downtown. Very tight wind gradient over the ship channel. image.thumb.png.45e87d2a84df6495e861d1c54394d715.png

image.thumb.png.31af05f5f412cc51f7a9b9871f242d66.png

That definitely moved further west compared to last night 

Posted
Only way to know for sure is for a home survey.  That said, my Generac 22KW will run everything, including AC.  Operation is seemless with a 3 second lapse before it kicks on after the power goes.
I got fed up with extension cords and humping gasoline to my old 5.5KW which did not support much beyond fridge, freezer, and some small draw appliances.

Wait, I can run a window unit at night with a 5k generator...right?
Posted

Making the decision today whether to get out of here. I’m not feeling no power for days on end and I don’t have a generator. 

I’ll be heading to the FL panhandle. Maybe I can draw this thing East. 

Posted
44 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs.

WTF does this even mean?

He doesn't want to make a dramatic shift in one update even though he knows that it is happening? Isn't the point to give people ample warning to evac and not to worry about making too big of a shift in a single update?

Posted
45 minutes ago, markstanco said:
1 hour ago, tejas60 said:
I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.
for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 

Ignorance on generators here, but those 20k watt Generac units advertised at Sams Club won't run an AC unit? They say whole home, but maybe not running lights AND ac at the same time. No idea.

 

8 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

Only way to know for sure is for a home survey.  That said, my Generac 22KW will run everything, including AC.  Operation is seemless with a 3 second lapse before it kicks on after the power goes.

I got fed up with extension cords and humping gasoline to my old 5.5KW which did not support much beyond fridge, freezer, and some small draw appliances.

been a while since I bought my old generator. wow, didn't realize you can get a 22Kw for $5k. 

to answer stanco's question, they're a hassle when you are/were a contractor and moved around a lot. and you only really use them a couple times every 5-6 years. looking at the Generac, though, guess it wouldn't be that much of a hassle. I'm retiring in a couple years and moving to the way western hill country, so I'm still gonna pass.

Posted
8 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

That definitely moved further west compared to last night 

Compared to the 12z and 18z from yesterday, it sure did. But it's pretty much the same as the 00z and just a tad further east than the same run yesterday morning. If anything, this morning's storm is slightly wider. 

 

233549377_ScreenShot2020-08-25at07_23_10.thumb.png.ac285016322db376110305e262226255.png

Posted
2 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Compared to the 12z and 18z from yesterday, it sure did. But it's pretty much the same as the 00z and just a tad further east than the same run yesterday morning. If anything, this morning's storm is slightly wider. 

 

233549377_ScreenShot2020-08-25at07_23_10.thumb.png.ac285016322db376110305e262226255.png

So it'll all come down to if Houston can take the girth or not

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