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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

Loco

By Loco
in Daily Texan

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NorthLoop
NorthLoop
miguelito
miguelito

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

crimsonlonghorn
crimsonlonghorn

Those of us in Houston are so goddam lucky right now. 

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markstanco

markstanco 12574

Posted
Posted
We weren’t here yet for Ike but I got a buddy says he was without power for 19 days. I can’t stress enough how unappealing that sounds.
I dont get how you coasties don't have a generator. People in Kentucky invest in meth labs. West Virginia they have 30k polaris side by sides. Yall should have 5k for a generator yes? WTF man. Yall know its coming living on the coast.
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Hanrahan

Hanrahan 1306

Posted
Posted
We weren’t here yet for Ike but I got a buddy says he was without power for 19 days. I can’t stress enough how unappealing that sounds.


I was without power for two weeks in the Heights. When the sun came up I took a look around and it took me about ten minutes in the heat to decide to head to Austin. No traffic at all.
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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8083

Posted
Posted
Anytime you are in Beaumont, you shouldn't be feeling that great.

Beaumont is awesome 10 months of the year.

 

Mandatory Jefferson County evacuation. Headed to Leander for my wife's sanity, she will simply lose her shit sitting in a boarded up house listening to the wind moan and shriek. She has that special kinda SE TX PTSD leftover from Ike and Rita.

 

Might as well head to my buddy's, he's got the new outdoor kitchen.

 

My elderly parents refuse to leave. Earlier today I said "get your ass in the car and go" and they declined.

 

Boarding up the house in the AM then skidaddling.

 

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3357

Posted
Posted (edited)

Latest euro run. At this point it’s just too close. Wobbles could make a huge difference for Houston and Galveston. 

Oh Lord GIF by memecandy
 

I am only posting euro because it has now been west or in the western portion of NHC’s cone for two (or three) runs.   

image.thumb.jpeg.1ccb37dcfd5116dd9b425a2d99dd11aa.jpeg
image.thumb.jpeg.c89a24627c6e7feb452008074cd12e79.jpeg

Edited by Telegraph_it
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justhookit

justhookit 4191

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

Both. Euro went west again and has pressure around 940. 

Yes. So I should be getting my COO Thursday from my new build after Harvey. It’s appropriate that it’s exactly 3 years later to the day. If this thing comes anywhere near me I’m going to blame @SydneyCarton and then @closetojumping for bugging out of this site and not keeping the idiots inline. Also, you need to lose some weight. Famous last words but it looks like we are good here in Port A and I’m sticking with my landfall right on the LA/TX border. Y’all peeps in Houston stay safe.

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tejas60

tejas60 3533

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, markstanco said:
9 hours ago, tokamak said:
We weren’t here yet for Ike but I got a buddy says he was without power for 19 days. I can’t stress enough how unappealing that sounds.

I dont get how you coasties don't have a generator. People in Kentucky invest in meth labs. West Virginia they have 30k polaris side by sides. Yall should have 5k for a generator yes? WTF man. Yall know its coming living on the coast.

I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.

for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 

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markstanco

markstanco 12574

Posted
Posted
I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.
for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 
Ignorance on generators here, but those 20k watt Generac units advertised at Sams Club won't run an AC unit? They say whole home, but maybe not running lights AND ac at the same time. No idea.
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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

All the weather people in Houston started freaking out at about 2 AM.  Looks like a cat 4 straight into Galveston Bay

Yep. Woke up to it about 5:30 and it's off the charts. The NHC track is only slightly further west and the Euro is still east of Galveston, and the GFS and American hurricane models are still in Jefferson County, but the Houston media is in full bore panic mode now. Meteorologist I used to work with many years ago was pretty insistent yesterday that it's a Louisiana storm. I'm curious to hear his take today, but yesterday he said they always correct back to the east - see Ike and Rita - and this one will too. He said if it were currently forecast into Matagorda, THAT'S when Houston is at the most risk of a surprise landfall (which is exactly what happened with Ike). 

I'm at least now probably going to have to spend the day moving everything inside the barn and garage and start tying stuff down. Waiting to see the 6z Euro and the 8AM advisory. If both of those are further west, then I'll start to be a little more concerned. 

 

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3357

Posted
Posted

NHC had this in their latest forecast discussion: 

The new NHC prediction is at the eastern edge of the new guidance envelope since 
I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs. But since the storm has been tracking west of forecast expectations for quite some time, future westward track adjustments 
could be required later today.
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Enchubben

Enchubben 5510

Posted
Posted

I gotta say, I thought y’all were some wishcasting assholes that kept posting the one model showing it going west to Houston. 

Turns out you were most certainly correct. I will tell you most Houstonians are much less prepared for this one than others, as we all assumed these were both going to Louisiana based on all the mainstream weather predictions.

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted (edited)

6z Euro almost exactly the same as the 00z. Borderline Cat 3 coming in over Chambers County. ~60 MPH gusts over downtown. Very tight wind gradient over the ship channel. 

Baytown and Anahuac get hammered. Golden Triangle isn't much better. But from a "lack of people between Houston and Beaumont" standpoint, going right over the east side of the bay would probably be the least bad scenario. 

image.thumb.png.45e87d2a84df6495e861d1c54394d715.png

image.thumb.png.31af05f5f412cc51f7a9b9871f242d66.png

 

 

Edited by crimsonlonghorn
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VirginiaLonghorn

VirginiaLonghorn 4771

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, markstanco said:
1 hour ago, tejas60 said:
I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.
for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 

Ignorance on generators here, but those 20k watt Generac units advertised at Sams Club won't run an AC unit? They say whole home, but maybe not running lights AND ac at the same time. No idea.

Only way to know for sure is for a home survey.  That said, my Generac 22KW will run everything, including AC.  Operation is seemless with a 3 second lapse before it kicks on after the power goes.

I got fed up with extension cords and humping gasoline to my old 5.5KW which did not support much beyond fridge, freezer, and some small draw appliances.

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5735

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

6z Euro almost exactly the same as the 00z. Borderline Cat 3 coming in over Chambers County. ~60 MPH gusts over downtown. Very tight wind gradient over the ship channel. image.thumb.png.45e87d2a84df6495e861d1c54394d715.png

image.thumb.png.31af05f5f412cc51f7a9b9871f242d66.png

That definitely moved further west compared to last night 

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
Only way to know for sure is for a home survey.  That said, my Generac 22KW will run everything, including AC.  Operation is seemless with a 3 second lapse before it kicks on after the power goes.
I got fed up with extension cords and humping gasoline to my old 5.5KW which did not support much beyond fridge, freezer, and some small draw appliances.

Wait, I can run a window unit at night with a 5k generator...right?
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Orange&White

Orange&White 5522

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I don't want to bite off on such a large change on just one set of model runs.

WTF does this even mean?

He doesn't want to make a dramatic shift in one update even though he knows that it is happening? Isn't the point to give people ample warning to evac and not to worry about making too big of a shift in a single update?

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tejas60

tejas60 3533

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, markstanco said:
1 hour ago, tejas60 said:
I had one. ex wife kept it and undoubtedly sold it.
for $5k you can get one that will run your lights and tv, but not your ac system. 

Ignorance on generators here, but those 20k watt Generac units advertised at Sams Club won't run an AC unit? They say whole home, but maybe not running lights AND ac at the same time. No idea.

 

8 minutes ago, VirginiaLonghorn said:

Only way to know for sure is for a home survey.  That said, my Generac 22KW will run everything, including AC.  Operation is seemless with a 3 second lapse before it kicks on after the power goes.

I got fed up with extension cords and humping gasoline to my old 5.5KW which did not support much beyond fridge, freezer, and some small draw appliances.

been a while since I bought my old generator. wow, didn't realize you can get a 22Kw for $5k. 

to answer stanco's question, they're a hassle when you are/were a contractor and moved around a lot. and you only really use them a couple times every 5-6 years. looking at the Generac, though, guess it wouldn't be that much of a hassle. I'm retiring in a couple years and moving to the way western hill country, so I'm still gonna pass.

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

That definitely moved further west compared to last night 

Compared to the 12z and 18z from yesterday, it sure did. But it's pretty much the same as the 00z and just a tad further east than the same run yesterday morning. If anything, this morning's storm is slightly wider. 

 

233549377_ScreenShot2020-08-25at07_23_10.thumb.png.ac285016322db376110305e262226255.png

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Captainant

Captainant 27647

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Compared to the 12z and 18z from yesterday, it sure did. But it's pretty much the same as the 00z and just a tad further east than the same run yesterday morning. If anything, this morning's storm is slightly wider. 

 

233549377_ScreenShot2020-08-25at07_23_10.thumb.png.ac285016322db376110305e262226255.png

So it'll all come down to if Houston can take the girth or not

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