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Posted
Just now, tejas60 said:

Sargent, Matagorda County. house is 3/4 mile from the coast as the crow flies. you still in LJ?

Out at Demi John now, fixin to throw up some boards and roll to Zapata.  Furk it.

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Posted
No idea.  You gotta calculate its load, along with anything else you want to run at the same time, to see if 5KW will handle it.

Right. I figured I would run the refrigerators and freezer during the day and the AC only at night. That should be no problem for my generator. I hope.
Posted
18 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

WTF does this even mean?

He doesn't want to make a dramatic shift in one update even though he knows that it is happening? Isn't the point to give people ample warning to evac and not to worry about making too big of a shift in a single update?

No one wants to be the bearer of bad news

Posted
21 minutes ago, Hate said:


Wait, I can run a window unit at night with a 5k generator...right?

Absolutely. A 10,000 btu A/C is going to pull 8-10 Amps. You have around 40Amps available from your 5kW generator. 

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Posted
9 minutes ago, huge said:

So when is the shit potentially going to hit the fan? Thursday afternoon?

It's looking like landfall will be Wednesday night / Thursday morning. We'll have a better idea of where it's heading as we get closer to then. 

I'm starting to charge up batteries, fill up cars, and grabbing some more non-perishable food

Posted

I believe we will be heading out today. I’ve gotta run to the office to sign some checks, come home and get everything squared away, grab the animals, board up a few windows and head out. Potentially having no power for a week sucks and I’m not dealing with that bullshit.

Posted
5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Can someone who can read this shit better than I can tell me what sort of winds we’re looking at getting around Bellaire?

Minor winds at my house. 100mph gusts near yours. It’s crazy. 

Posted
21 minutes ago, huge said:

So when is the shit potentially going to hit the fan? Thursday afternoon?

lol...make landfall during the day??? No way that would be too easy....it has to come through in the middle of the fucking night like all of them where we can't see shit captain.  

Once again I prepare thy anus for another smooth buttfucking.  

Posted
4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Can someone who can read this shit better than I can tell me what sort of winds we’re looking at getting around Bellaire?

Depends on where exactly it comes in. On the map I posted earlier this morning, you've 50 MPH gusts in Bellaire. Further east, winds are lower. But if it comes up San Luis or Freeport, you're looking at gusts well over 100 MPH.

Posted
23 minutes ago, huge said:

So when is the shit potentially going to hit the fan? Thursday afternoon?

Winds and rain starts tomorrow afternoon and get steadily worse through the night. Starts clearing out Thursday morning. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Scraps said:

lol...make landfall during the day??? No way that would be too easy....it has to come through in the middle of the fucking night like all of them where we can't see shit captain.  

Once again I prepare thy anus for another smooth buttfucking.  

I was thinking this too. Fucking Ike part deux

Posted

Getting out of mont belvieu this afternoon. Thanks to posters here for helping educate some of us on weather terminology and forecasts

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk

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Posted
6 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Can someone who can read this shit better than I can tell me what sort of winds we’re looking at getting around Bellaire?

Those latest model runs on the previous page have us getting gusts in the 50-60 mph range. Lots of variability if this thing goes a few miles east or west though.

I'm in Westbury and we're planning to stay put. Got plenty of non-perishable food and full gas tanks. No generator. If it's a bad hit and looks like we're gonna be without power for a while, my wife and kids will probably bail and head to the Metroplex.

Posted
Just now, Telegraph_it said:

This guy continues to provide bad news but so far his projections seem to be panning out. 

 

I was coming to post those. Hopefully they will KEEP going west towards Matagorda and Port Lavaca and the other models will follow.

Posted
32 minutes ago, huge said:

So when is the shit potentially going to hit the fan? Thursday afternoon?

Oh and to be more specific....this was from the AM news....like Hate said:

 

118285726_10105926239395795_6815446473185936497_o.jpg

Posted
7 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

n42rf has completed it's recon and is heading home.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N42RF#flightPageActivityLog

n49rf sortied again overnight, they must have multiple crews for the gulfstream.

Can anyone provide a bit of info on what these flights entail?  I know these are specialized aircraft, but do they fly within the storm itself?  above it?  How dangerous is it for them to fly in these storms?

Posted (edited)

Scanning some of the weather forums, there are some meteorologists predicting Laura hits west of Galveston as a Cat 4, maybe strengthening at landfall.  Almost a worst case scenario for Houston (worst would be a Cat. 5, and a larger sized storm than expected which could push more storm surge.)

Not a consensus, but also not outlier opinions.  FWIW, one of those mets nailed the Katrina forecast before it had crossed Florida, so he's not the usual forum amateurs wishcasting.

 

Now go take on the day....

Edited by clapclapclap
Posted

the electras fly at fl27 and crash straight through the eyewall.  rugged as hell.  the history of the L-188 is it's own thread.  they take every measurement imaginable and drop radiosonde "torpedos" from that altitude to take realtime measurements of the ocean.

the gulfstream flies at fl42 and is more radar & visual.  i posted a link above that describes what they do.  will go find it again in a minute.

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Posted
Just now, hookemATL said:

Can anyone provide a bit of info on what these flights entail?  I know these are specialized aircraft, but do they fly within the storm itself?  above it?  How dangerous is it for them to fly in these storms?

1) big fucking balls of steel

2) they fly right into the bastard and collect data with the laboratory built into the plane, but they also do flybys and collect radar data and drop probes into it's path and into the storm itself. 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_hunters

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the electras fly at fl27 and crash straight through the eyewall.  rugged as hell.  the history of the L-188 is it's own thread.  they take every measurement imaginable and drop radiosonde "torpedos" from that altitude to take realtime measurements of the ocean.

the gulfstream flies at fl42 and is more radar & visual.  i posted a link above that describes what they do.  will go find it again in a minute.

badass, thanks!

Posted
6 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Can anyone provide a bit of info on what these flights entail?  I know these are specialized aircraft, but do they fly within the storm itself?  above it?  How dangerous is it for them to fly in these storms?

You can follow them realtime here:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Kind of tedious but also interesting when they find the center.  

Posted
34 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

the electras fly at fl27 and crash straight through the eyewall.  rugged as hell.  the history of the L-188 is it's own thread.  they take every measurement imaginable and drop radiosonde "torpedos" from that altitude to take realtime measurements of the ocean.

the gulfstream flies at fl42 and is more radar & visual.  i posted a link above that describes what they do.  will go find it again in a minute.

They are not Electras, they are P-3's.  There are several differences with one of the biggest (noticeable) being the P-3 had about 7 feet of the fuselage cut our in front of the wings.  That caused some interesting CG and aerodynamic changes.  

Posted (edited)

@leroy

If we want to get technical, the WP-3D is a variant of the P-3 which is a variant of the L-188 Electra, all of which share the same wings and Allison engines.

They're Electras to me, dammit. 

i didn't know about the fuselage hack, was that for the P-3 or just the WP-3D ?

Edited by Hagbard Celine
forgot to quote leroy
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