2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

[Telegraph_it 3357]

2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

48 hours out from landfall, up to a 90 mile hit uncertainty is still in play. Spaghetti track at your peril on Tuesday afternoon for a Thursday morning storm. Just sayin’

Yup, every wobble will matter. I am glad the euro didn't go further west though. 

[Hate 20108]

Yeah, I’m not spiking the football until I see it pass us by. We are still forecast to get some pretty decent winds, are we not? There will be power outages around Houston at the very least.

[InkaUtexas 25909]

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

48 hours out from landfall, up to a 90 mile hit uncertainty is still in play. Spaghetti track at your peril on Tuesday afternoon for a Thursday morning storm. Just sayin’

Yep. Not like weather forecasts have been off in the past. 

[hookemATL 11714]

Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. 
 

Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma. 

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Someone on the weather channel mentioned yesterday that nearly a 1/3 of the time, a storm deviates outside the cone of uncertainty.

[miguelito 11262]

2 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Someone on the weather channel mentioned yesterday that nearly a 1/3 of the time, a storm deviates outside the cone of uncertainty.

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

[UTexasFight 9431]

3 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. 
 

Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma. 

You may all go to hell, I will go....ahead and drown in Texas.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

Always seems this way with Texas’ most populated county on the edge 36hrs out.

[Gatorubet 30212]

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/laura-expected-to-make-landfall-in-texas-or-louisiana-as-major-hurricane/

Dr. Jeff Masters of old Cat 6 Weather blog at Weather Underground moved to Yale once Weather channel cut costs and closed it down. His take today

[Patricio Swayze 17058]

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

It’s all about the girth.

[elfenix 34230]

36 hours out average track error is like 70 miles, or the distance from houston to beaumont. at least, i think that's what this says. 

 

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/the-most-reliable-hurricane-models-according-to-their-2019-performance/

Edited August 25, 2020 by elfenix

[UTexasFight 9431]

4 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Someone on the weather channel mentioned yesterday that nearly a 1/3 of the time, a storm deviates outside the cone of uncertainty.

I hope that person was wearing sex panther 

[dcbc 14471]

28 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Yeah I think the Houston area is in the clear barring a 50 mile shift last minute

I was young, but didn't Alicia shift (albeit eastward) a fairly short time before landfall.  I recall my dad's going down to our place near Sealy to ride it out while we stayed in Houston.  He never even lost power and we had trees falling on the house.  Good times.

[Brisketexan 105095]

I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things:

 

I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me.

[Trey3216 15346]

6 minutes ago, miguelito said:

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

[dcbc 14471]

11 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. 
 

Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma. 

Picks up violin.  "Gentlemen, it has been an honor playing with you."

5 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

It’s all about the girth.

It's the motion of the ocean.

[Trey3216 15346]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things:

 

I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me.

Judging by the wood paneling and the jawline on #2, she could be a Beaumont candidate.  

[gmr548 16576]

Yeah I think the Houston area is in the clear barring a 50 mile shift last minute

"I think the Houston area is in the clear unless something very possible happens."

Also, Houston area is a big place. Assuming the majority of the models are right, I wouldn't want to live in Baytown or Liberty or something right now.

[Scraps 13561]

Right now?  Try ever

[Cody2422 271]

We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, tons of evacuees coming in.  This is going to be a shitty few days 

[gmr548 16576]

Right now?  Try ever

[Scraps 13561]

and FYI i live in Baytown lol

[DaysOff 7947]

Totally having spaghetti tonight.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

31 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I was young, but didn't Alicia shift (albeit eastward) a fairly short time before landfall.  I recall my dad's going down to our place near Sealy to ride it out while we stayed in Houston.  He never even lost power and we had trees falling on the house.  Good times.

Ike shifted east too about three days out. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by crimsonlonghorn

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

4 minutes ago, Scraps said:

and FYI i live in Baytown lol

Then by your own standards you are doing it wrong. 

[Chet Steadman 940]

7 minutes ago, Cody2422 said:

We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, 

Relocating from Beaumont to Waco?

That’s like moving from Fallujah to Allepo.  

[miguelito 11262]

13 minutes ago, Cody2422 said:

We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, tons of evacuees coming in.  This is going to be a shitty few days 

Watch your cornhole.

[Cody2422 271]

2 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Relocating from Beaumont to Waco?

That’s like moving from Fallujah to Allepo.  

Yeah not ideal. 

[dcbc 14471]

1 minute ago, Cody2422 said:

Yeah not ideal. 

I hear they're getting some restaurants.

[BearSchlong 8084]

We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, tons of evacuees coming in.  This is going to be a shitty few days 

Left Beaumont at 1030, approaching Austin now. Traffic wasn't even heavy. On 290 and its light.

My stepbrother/SIL, Mom, Dad, Stepmom all stayed. My dad is actually more scared of getting covid than enduring the coming shitstorm.

I urged them all to leave. This morning I called my only sibling and told her that they have free will and resources so i don't have guilt in leaving. Plus ya know, im still 25 days after a bad case of Covid and am still healing. Plus I'm out of PTO at work due to the illness and my job is remote, so I need to work. Staying with friends in Leander.

[66BUFF 2562]

44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things:

 

I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me.

Where is the mountain in Beaumont

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

[Hate 20108]

Conroe ISD has canceled all classes through Thursday.

[Trey3216 15346]

4 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

[Storm the Field 5294]

4PM NHC update shows no change from earlier.

Quote

There is no change in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. The new forecast track has a slight eastward nudge during the first 12-24 h, but the landfall position is almost unchanged from that of the previous forecast. It should the be noted that the current forecast track lies to the east of the ECMWF and UKMET models, so it is still possible that the forecast track could nudge westward in later advisories.

 

[wildcat09 29349]

Voteban Kyrie.

[Brisketexan 105095]

7 minutes ago, Kyrie Eleison said:

I said Beaumont, not Port Neches.

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

that's some Port Acres shit right there...

[bad_teammate 13195]

4 minutes ago, Hate said:

Conroe ISD has canceled all classes through Thursday.

[Mack Tripper 696]

What's the status of the Houston Rodeo?

[gmr548 16576]

Conroe ISD has canceled all classes through Thursday.

Conroe has schools?

[tx 3 putt 76906]

Avoid I 10 west of Katy to Columbus 

parking lot during normal times 

Edited August 25, 2020 by tx 3 putt

[Celery Man 20934]

13 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

21 minutes ago, Hate said:

Conroe ISD has canceled all classes through Thursday.

Conroe has schools?

The Woodlands is in CISD

[Scraps 13561]

I can get down with that track 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21899]

Spring Branch ISD has cancelled online classes for tomorrow and Thursday.  My daughters very small private school is supposed to start on Thursday.  I haven't heard anything about their status yet.

[Moby Ric 2058]

30 minutes ago, Hate said:

Conroe ISD has canceled all classes through Thursday.

WTF for?  You can just go virtual.

[Duke Silver 191]

I live in Columbus.  I-10 traffic on a normal day due to construction is ridiculous.  Came out of Houston on 90-A through East Bernard and Eagle Lake this afternoon and there is already a decent amount of traffic on it.  Long backups at any stop signs.

[bolverk 29665]

5 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

WTF for?  You can just go virtual.

Oh, I dunno, power might go out? Risk for last minute evacuation? Potential to have to take in friends/family causing disruption in the home...where the kids have to be able to focus on online instruction?

Shit, the teachers themselves may not live in the district and would typically commute from places closer to the current path and might also have to evacuate or lose power. 

There's a number of good reasons just off the top of my head.

[CleverNickname 1308]

I dont understand why I10 from Houston to SA isn't just six lanes each way. The ROW is there and its straight as an arrow. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

14 minutes ago, Duke Silver said:

I live in Columbus.  I-10 traffic on a normal day due to construction is ridiculous.  Came out of Houston on 90-A through East Bernard and Eagle Lake this afternoon and there is already a decent amount of traffic on it.  Long backups at any stop signs.

Schobels and Nancy's are probably raking in the business.