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Posted
2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:


48 hours out from landfall, up to a 90 mile hit uncertainty is still in play. Spaghetti track at your peril on Tuesday afternoon for a Thursday morning storm. Just sayin’

Yup, every wobble will matter. I am glad the euro didn't go further west though. 

Posted

Yeah, I’m not spiking the football until I see it pass us by. We are still forecast to get some pretty decent winds, are we not? There will be power outages around Houston at the very least.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:


48 hours out from landfall, up to a 90 mile hit uncertainty is still in play. Spaghetti track at your peril on Tuesday afternoon for a Thursday morning storm. Just sayin’

Yep. Not like weather forecasts have been off in the past. 

Posted

Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. 
 

Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:

Someone on the weather channel mentioned yesterday that nearly a 1/3 of the time, a storm deviates outside the cone of uncertainty.

I hope that person was wearing sex panther 

08A7CF29-4FF4-4336-B46C-4B561F476C6E.jpeg

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Posted
28 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Yeah I think the Houston area is in the clear barring a 50 mile shift last minute

I was young, but didn't Alicia shift (albeit eastward) a fairly short time before landfall.  I recall my dad's going down to our place near Sealy to ride it out while we stayed in Houston.  He never even lost power and we had trees falling on the house.  Good times.

Posted
11 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

Many of you are discounting the 2020 factor. Take a given situation, add a ton of liquid feces, then set it on fire as it reaches its worst possible iteration. 
 

Taking that into account, my prediction is the entirety of the state ends up under water and we all have to move to Oklahoma. 

Picks up violin.  "Gentlemen, it has been an honor playing with you."

5 minutes ago, Patricio Swayze said:


It’s all about the girth.

It's the motion of the ocean.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things:

Caroline-Vreeland.jpg

93c4e738f61153a23731272084d5b99f.jpg

a7d3e24bc3e8d87a528f2d9d48cd1a13.jpg

e92cc88418c24d948f8f344731f2ac8f5f63214c

 

I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me.

Judging by the wood paneling and the jawline on #2, she could be a Beaumont candidate.  

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Posted
Yeah I think the Houston area is in the clear barring a 50 mile shift last minute
"I think the Houston area is in the clear unless something very possible happens."

Also, Houston area is a big place. Assuming the majority of the models are right, I wouldn't want to live in Baytown or Liberty or something right now.
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I was young, but didn't Alicia shift (albeit eastward) a fairly short time before landfall.  I recall my dad's going down to our place near Sealy to ride it out while we stayed in Houston.  He never even lost power and we had trees falling on the house.  Good times.

Ike shifted east too about three days out. 

Edited by crimsonlonghorn
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Posted
We evacuated from the bmt area to Waco, tons of evacuees coming in.  This is going to be a shitty few days 
Left Beaumont at 1030, approaching Austin now. Traffic wasn't even heavy. On 290 and its light.

My stepbrother/SIL, Mom, Dad, Stepmom all stayed. My dad is actually more scared of getting covid than enduring the coming shitstorm.

I urged them all to leave. This morning I called my only sibling and told her that they have free will and resources so i don't have guilt in leaving. Plus ya know, im still 25 days after a bad case of Covid and am still healing. Plus I'm out of PTO at work due to the illness and my job is remote, so I need to work. Staying with friends in Leander.
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Posted
44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I dunno guys, I've been checking out a lot of spaghetti models pages, and I just can't get a good read on things:

Caroline-Vreeland.jpg

93c4e738f61153a23731272084d5b99f.jpg

a7d3e24bc3e8d87a528f2d9d48cd1a13.jpg

e92cc88418c24d948f8f344731f2ac8f5f63214c

 

I mean....NONE of those scream "Beaumont" to me.

Where is the mountain in Beaumont

Posted

4PM NHC update shows no change from earlier.

153403_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Quote

There is no change in the forecast philosophy since the last advisory. The new forecast track has a slight eastward nudge during the first 12-24 h, but the landfall position is almost unchanged from that of the previous forecast. It should the be noted that the current forecast track lies to the east of the ECMWF and UKMET models, so it is still possible that the forecast track could nudge westward in later advisories.

 

Posted

I live in Columbus.  I-10 traffic on a normal day due to construction is ridiculous.  Came out of Houston on 90-A through East Bernard and Eagle Lake this afternoon and there is already a decent amount of traffic on it.  Long backups at any stop signs.

Posted
5 minutes ago, Moby Ric said:

WTF for?  You can just go virtual.

Oh, I dunno, power might go out? Risk for last minute evacuation? Potential to have to take in friends/family causing disruption in the home...where the kids have to be able to focus on online instruction?

Shit, the teachers themselves may not live in the district and would typically commute from places closer to the current path and might also have to evacuate or lose power. 

There's a number of good reasons just off the top of my head.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, Duke Silver said:

I live in Columbus.  I-10 traffic on a normal day due to construction is ridiculous.  Came out of Houston on 90-A through East Bernard and Eagle Lake this afternoon and there is already a decent amount of traffic on it.  Long backups at any stop signs.

Schobels and Nancy's are probably raking in the business.

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