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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

Loco

By Loco
in Daily Texan

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NorthLoop
NorthLoop
miguelito
miguelito

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

crimsonlonghorn
crimsonlonghorn

Those of us in Houston are so goddam lucky right now. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, SquishMitten said:


Crazy. Is it just not possible to make glass completely hurricane proof? Or just bad planning due to being further inland?

I suppose you could put in 2-3 inch thick bulletproof glass, but that would cost as much as the building itself.  

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Pimphand

Pimphand 5736

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2 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

Surely it will go up, but pretty amazing that the death toll is still only at 1 considering the reports of how many folks didn’t evacuate.

I mean I get that the storm surge was going to be bad but how many people really live on the coast facing edges of the swamp?  I know there are some beach houses out there but my guess is they all long since hauled ass.

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Dewey

Dewey 3286

Posted
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5 minutes ago, Cousin Strawberry said:

Can I have the origin story please?  

I think that was Ike, someone named "Harry Dong" posted on FB that Ike was going to jump Galveston and hit CS as a cat 4. Thats how they boarded up... to save the windows.  

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markstanco

markstanco 12574

Posted
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2 hours ago, After irth said:

 Feeling incredibly grateful here in Lufkin.  A few doses of some much needed rain.  A few breezes.  By dawn, the rain is done and all is dead calm.  Gonna be a normal day around here.  Relieved and grateful for my piney wooded homestead.

 

#wewillrebuild

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13511

Posted
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I know this tweet was already posted but I assume Eric Berger was sleep deprived as I don't understand what point he's trying to make. Does someone actually believe Houston or perhaps any US city is well prepared for a Cat 4+ hurricane? Maybe his twitter comments were full of people stating otherwise but that seems doubtful. the only way that Houston will ever get more prepared is to first get hit by this level of a storm. 

And at some aspects, Houston gets worse each year. Even with current projects to improve the drainage from the streets to the bayous, the bayous cannot empty much faster.  We're definitely helping drainage for localized, intense storms but we may be setting ourselves up for bigger problems with widespread flooding. Unfortunately sometimes there just isn't a good, realistic solution.

 

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Hate

Hate 20108

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It’s really amazing how accurate the NHS has gotten over the last 10-15 years with their ability to forecast. There will always be adjustments that need to be made due to interactions with land in the Caribbean, but once a TS is in the GOM, they get a pretty good idea of where it will go 48-72 hours out. I don’t know that they will be able to get much better than that given all of the different variables they have to consider, especially in this case with Marco being a most unusual variable to be considered. Here is a map of the predicted path as of Sunday and where it eventually made landfall. They were about a mile off.

d963d1683100834115cf6842a52d20b3.jpg

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19416

Posted
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1 hour ago, UT_OB1 said:

Any word on Port Arthur.  New reports I've found so far don't indicate much damage, but one of my employees with family there said that a number of houses took some pretty bad damage.  

High School friend is a Captain in PAFD. He's been in the EOC since yesterday afternoon. He posted about 8:00 this morning urging people to stay away at least another day, as power is out almost city wide. Seems like the biggest risk now would be if it suddenly jogged back west and dumped a bunch of rain on the Sabine watershed and the river flooding, like Harvey. 

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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8087

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I am a happy camper.

No power at home but my stepbro stopped by and the only damage was a roof ac vent that blew off.

Dad/stepmom never lost power or cable.
Stepbro is running of generac, all good there.

The local Beaumont weatherman for KFDM (not Bostwick) said at 3 am "I cannot understand how the conditions are not as bad as forecasted.

Stepbro said he saw very few trees down in Beaumont. I'm headed back in the AM.

Now to get us through September without another storm.

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miguelito

miguelito 11262

Posted
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27 minutes ago, Hate said:

It’s really amazing how accurate the NHS has gotten over the last 10-15 years with their ability to forecast. There will always be adjustments that need to be made due to interactions with land in the Caribbean, but once a TS is in the GOM, they get a pretty good idea of where it will go 48-72 hours out. I don’t know that they will be able to get much better than that given all of the different variables they have to consider, especially in this case with Marco being a most unusual variable to be considered. Here is a map of the predicted path as of Sunday and where it eventually made landfall. They were about a mile off.

d963d1683100834115cf6842a52d20b3.jpg

That is cool, but there are dozens of other tracks and models along the way.  We don't know which one is the best track till afterwords. 

The Euro was thought to be one of the better ones over the last few years (I think), but it had Laura further west than most other models. 

 

I'm gonna stick with whatever Frankie says.

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
That is cool, but there are dozens of other tracks and models along the way.  We don't know which one is the best track till afterwords. 

The Euro was thought to be one of the better ones over the last few years (I think), but it had Laura further west than most other models. 

 

I'm gonna stick with whatever Frankie says.

The one I posted is from the NHC, meaning it’s not a model but the NHC official track forecast based on input from models and expert knowledge. I’ll listen to those guys 100% of the time, but I will always consider any input from Frankie.

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Llano Estacado

Llano Estacado 1257

Posted
Posted
Welp, time to get to work. Y’all take care, I need to mobilize some people 


Condolences to lots of folks needed in that area. We fly out of Lake Charles to man some western gulf assets.

Was on call this morning loosely working mobilization schedule like I’ve done countless times, when a 50 year old man broke down in tears. “Maybe not Monday, maybe not next week, maybe not this year...Lord help me, fuck! ...I can’t do this right now. Y’all call me later”

Rough as hell.
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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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I’m thinking the big surge still happened, it was just farther east in the largely uninhabited swamps and wildlife refuges.  The storm itself came in on the east side of model guidance so I’d imagine the surge followed suit.
Probably so. Nothing to track it in the swampland. Ultimately a very good thing.

And of course, 9' at Cameron at landfall isn't anything to sneeze at.
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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2 hours ago, Hate said:

The one I posted is from the NHC, meaning it’s not a model but the NHC official track forecast based on input from models and expert knowledge. I’ll listen to those guys 100% of the time, but I will always consider any input from Frankie.

I think on this one they got a little lucky, even with the impressiveness of the forecast. Laura didn't do any last minute weirdness because the steering currents were pretty reliable in this case. But if you remember, first predictions were going up through Florida, then the proven track, then more west into the Central Texas coast, and then back to the proven track. I guess it also depends on what one's definition of accurate is. For me within 25 miles is a pretty good guess.

I wrote last year that we've pretty much reached the limit of mathematical possibilities as we know it right now to predict hurricane tracks more than a day out. Apparently they have maxed out the algorithms that allow predictions, so I don't think they'll be a ton of improvement unless some new paradigm is discovered. But then you get into the same area as what makes tornadoes form and move, and on that relatively little is known as well.

One area that's lagging that hopefully will be improved is the forecast strength of hurricanes again, like tornadoes, they just don't know all the factors that can streamline prediction. Originally, neither of these things was supposed to do much but I've seen too many go through the Gulf in August and September that get a lot worse then they forecast. Marco turned out to be way less potent and of course Laura turned out to be way more potent

It's a tough game to play, lots of angry people if you're wrong, and l you usually are in part. But no reason to not keep trying, and I salute these guys for a tough job. I wouldn't want it. And I actually used to do it for NASA as an intern for a little while.

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I meant once a TS gets into the gulf with no land interaction they are pretty good. Obviously, there are going to be changes when a storm is still hundreds of miles away from the GOM with many mountainous islands to go by before they make it into the GOM. That’s not even to mention the different influences with troughs, ridges, low and high pressure ridges that a TS will go through on its way from the open Atlantic, through the Caribbean and finally the GOM. Hell, I remember there was only one model showing that Harvey would survive going over the Yucatán Peninsula, but once it did they knew exactly where it would go and that it could strengthen rapidly. And in the instance, the NHC had a real balancing act on their hands with being very confident on the expected track and taking into consideration any impacts on a major metropolitan area. All of this to say, once a storm is in the GOM and clear of land masses, I feel pretty confident that the NHC knows where the storm is heading.

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