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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

Loco

By Loco
in Daily Texan

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NorthLoop
NorthLoop
miguelito
miguelito

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

crimsonlonghorn
crimsonlonghorn

Those of us in Houston are so goddam lucky right now. 

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WBT

WBT 20669

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

A poster at Tigerdroppings has reported that the chemical burning is trichlor and they have abandoned attempts to save the plant. His father works at the plant and the poster works in that field. 

well this doesn't look good

https://www.kplctv.com/2020/08/27/fire-chemical-plant-westlake/

 

Edited by WBT
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15356

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, phdhorn said:

I think on this one they got a little lucky, even with the impressiveness of the forecast. Laura didn't do any last minute weirdness because the steering currents were pretty reliable in this case. But if you remember, first predictions were going up through Florida, then the proven track, then more west into the Central Texas coast, and then back to the proven track. I guess it also depends on what one's definition of accurate is. For me within 25 miles is a pretty good guess.

I wrote last year that we've pretty much reached the limit of mathematical possibilities as we know it right now to predict hurricane tracks more than a day out. Apparently they have maxed out the algorithms that allow predictions, so I don't think they'll be a ton of improvement unless some new paradigm is discovered. But then you get into the same area as what makes tornadoes form and move, and on that relatively little is known as well.

One area that's lagging that hopefully will be improved is the forecast strength of hurricanes again, like tornadoes, they just don't know all the factors that can streamline prediction. Originally, neither of these things was supposed to do much but I've seen too many go through the Gulf in August and September that get a lot worse then they forecast. Marco turned out to be way less potent and of course Laura turned out to be way more potent

It's a tough game to play, lots of angry people if you're wrong, and l you usually are in part. But no reason to not keep trying, and I salute these guys for a tough job. I wouldn't want it. And I actually used to do it for NASA as an intern for a little while.

It’s pretty hard to map chaos.  Getting closer is about what we can hope for.  

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted (edited)

The science of storm surge estimates may be lagging the now impressive accuracy of storm track predictions.  It does seem that several storms recently had the surge underperform the predictions.  Too early to say on Laura, since the only reporting station within 110 miles of the east side of landfall quit reporting after 4' of surge rise (over the additional 2' of high tide.)  The Calcasieu Pass station hit 9' of surge (11' total rise) in a predicted 15-20' area, but that prediction was made before the storm track ended up moving enough to put that station lightly west of the center.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/map/index.html

 

BTW, on either side of the Bolivar Peninsula, the stations at Galveston Jetty and Rollover Pass reported 4.5' and 4' surge on top of a 1.5' tide.  CNN termed that 'massive flooding' at Crystal Beach.  "Obviously cars are floating in the street":

(You'll never guess what they try to pivot to for most of the interview....) 

Edited by clapclapclap
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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8114

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I was following KFDM Beaumont.  Holy fuck they have some smoke shows for anchors.  I was in love.

without even looking I'm guessing you're talking about Tiffany Murphy, the curvy blonde?  Yeah she just lost a lot of weight.  She and my SIL are good friends.

I'm amazed there's anything left standing at Holly Beach.  This is the time of the year I spend a lot of the time in that marsh, specifically Johnson's Bayou/Deep Water road and I'm pretty sure that whole place is going to be unrecognizable after the storm, i.e. new obstructions/sunken shit in the bayou.

This whole thing made me look at Crystal Beach from the day after Ike to the most recent Google Earth imagery.

Day after Ike vs. now.  The new monster red house on the beachfront is built to the edge of where our house was prior to Ike.

 

ike.jpg

Now.jpg

Edited by BearSchlong
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achooloco

achooloco 1086

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

You rightly laugh but growing up near Braker lane, we always stayed inside during a storm that had lightning. Stay away from trees and lie down flat if the hair on the back of your head starts to rise up. From my folks, and elementary, junior high, to high school, you see lightning and you get your ass inside since it can strike from miles away. But living in nyc, no one gives a shit. You still got to get home from wherever, reach the train from work, get groceries, grab a beer, or come up out of the subway to lightning everywhere and it feels wierd as hell since everyone is just outside walking. And with big ass metal umbrellas too. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16616

Posted
Posted
A poster at Tigerdroppings has reported that the chemical burning is trichlor and they have abandoned attempts to save the plant. His father works at the plant and the poster works in that field. 
Lol yeah something on tigerdroppings wss legible English. Okay.
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Blotto

Blotto 23575

Posted
Posted

Whoever constructed that building at 0:45 in the Cameron video would get my business if I had to rebuild a commercial structure. Other than the surrounding water, that fucker looks pristine. 

image.png.db63129bd1c2eda429961d52c2b841a1.png

And while I am screencapping impressive structures:

image.thumb.png.5c0a53890fed308be675ebc2f95d4a5b.png

 

 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted

Since hurricanes cross state lines (typically), we are not allowed to discuss the federal response on this website. Under no circumstances should that be discussed.  Hurricanes are state matters.  Well, ocean matters really.  I'm tired of this shit being CR'd up.  You fucking savages.  

My mentally retarded sister called me today and asked, "Brother, are you okay?"  I said, "We're okay, the hurricane hit Louisiana mostly sis."  She said, "I saw Texas on the weather map."  I replied, "Well, that's the map of the whole path of the hurricane, but we're okay."  She has a better grasp on meteorology than our national leadership.  But y'all keep up the delusions.  My 24th chromosome sister is very proud of y'all!  

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Hate

Hate 20145

Posted
Posted
And I’m going to start sending my HEB bills to Entergy and let them pay for my shit. Two months in a row I’m going to have to throw everything out. 

They are doing rolling brownouts in SE Texas right now. Their East Texas plant was damaged apparently. The power is usually back on after 4 hours.
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Heisenberg

Heisenberg 162

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

And I’m going to start sending my HEB bills to Entergy and let them pay for my shit. Two months in a row I’m going to have to throw everything out. 

Entergy is a shit outfit.  Had electricity until 12:15 PM today in The Woodlands ~100 miles from any damage, been off since.

Edited by Heisenberg
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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19224

Posted
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Hate said:


They are doing rolling brownouts in SE Texas right now. Their East Texas plant was damaged apparently. The power is usually back on after 4 hours.

Six hours and counting. All the other neighborhoods around us got theirs back two hours ago. Wish this “rolling” stuff would finally happen. 
 

And we had a 12 hour outage back in mid July which was nice. Fucking Nigeria was better than these clowns. 

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8821

Posted
Posted

I switched to that reed guy. They were out driving around the whole time.

Jeff’s great, and blue shed will always be a “remember where you were moment”...but it does drag when he doesn’t move. I fell asleep with him yelling at me on my phone around 1230ish. Woke up at 1ish and the view really didn’t change.
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Updawg

Updawg 2286

Posted
Posted

Jeff’s great, and blue shed will always be a “remember where you were moment”...but it does drag when he doesn’t move. I fell asleep with him yelling at me on my phone around 1230ish. Woke up at 1ish and the view really didn’t change.

Exactly. He was great for a while but he never left the parking garage. Don’t need to watch the radar on his iPad for 4 hours. Those other guys were getting good footage. They went from 20k views to 120k
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Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

The science of storm surge estimates may be lagging the now impressive accuracy of storm track predictions. 

How many of us laughed our asses off when the first rainfall projections came out for Harvey?  Yeah, we remembered Alicia; but it seemed like that number was thrown out there to drive panic.

Too many times, it still requires a lot of triangulation and wading through the bullshit to get to the truth.  Yeah, most of us understand it's probability and predictive, but some of that pot banging horse shit just grates on your nerves.

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J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1084

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, slorch said:

How many of us laughed our asses off when the first rainfall projections came out for Harvey?  Yeah, we remembered Alicia; but it seemed like that number was thrown out there to drive panic.

Too many times, it still requires a lot of triangulation and wading through the bullshit to get to the truth.  Yeah, most of us understand it's probability and predictive, but some of that pot banging horse shit just grates on your nerves.

What were the predicted numbers for Harvey?  I remember Mont Belvieu got like 56" and even La Grange got an insane amount as it hung out around there for a while.

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